Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Nyvin]

What is the reasoning of this case?  Isn't GA-13 already the least Black of the metro's VRA districts?  

No, it's 68% Black.

Hmm...per Wikipedia its only 57% Black, but I am seeing ~65% Black listed in some other data sources.

Given the areas it has, 57% Black is pretty much impossible, it's in the mid-sixties at least.  

Also it's not just GA-13,  they also put that chunk of Cobb County into GA-14 that's heavily black too, and parts of Henry that are black majority get thrown into districts 3 and 10.  

The whole map around GA-13 is a big, clever pack and crack.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1717590749313999315?t=Un-flbcTks9aYPI...


https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1717582784124899718?t=55yyh0fQaskEIqTScfBbbw&am...

As we said earlier,  trying things with GA-07 is not just De Facto a punt to a master,  but also De Jure.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, to refresh the minds of everyone new to this case, this is the plaintiffs map when they applied for a Preliminary Injunction over a year ago. They basically won that hearing, but the judge said he couldn't rule positively in their favor, despite the facts, given Purcell.

What would the partisan lean of the 9th be on this map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, to refresh the minds of everyone new to this case, this is the plaintiffs map when they applied for a Preliminary Injunction over a year ago. They basically won that hearing, but the judge said he couldn't rule positively in their favor, despite the facts, given Purcell.

What would the partisan lean of the 9th be on this map?

Looks a bit over Trump + 20 in 2020; would probably be fine for Rs this decade but def gets close

[GALeftist]

The bit about putting the VRA district in the western suburbs is an interesting twist that I certainly didn't expect. I think it probably makes the ruling a bit weaker upon appeal, but if it's upheld, it puts the GAGOP in an interesting position of either locking in an 8-6 or trying shenanigans to maintain 9-5 that could lead to a fair map.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gov. Kemp has called a special session for Nov. 29 to draw new maps.

[Atlas Force]

Gov. Kemp has called a special session for Nov. 29 to draw new maps.

So they're just not appealing? Though it makes sense that they'd rather not risk a court-drawn map.

[Oryxslayer]

Gov. Kemp has called a special session for Nov. 29 to draw new maps.

So they're just not appealing? Though it makes sense that they'd rather not risk a court-drawn map.

They still could and seek a immediate stay, and just have this penciled in if that fails and not want a master. Cause there is a very real chance of the current 97-83 Trump (GOP won 4 Biden seats in 2022, plus the defection) State House map ending up with more Biden seats through cascading Master-ordered changes then the 92-88 minimum ordered by the court, and that's the real danger to the GOP power here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah the GOP is sort of in a tough spot here on all levels.

For the Congressional map, they have a few options:

1. Draw 4 black Atlanta pack seats, at the expense of GA-07. This could be legally problematic, and force a special master to get involved, in which case the entire Atlanta region may become affected and you end up with a 7-7 map.

2. Draw a new black seat in western Atlanta and use the opportunity to lock in a solid 8-6 map. The problem here is which R seat does the GOP eliminate? However, if they're smart they can use it to shore up the current GA-06 and GA-11 to be completely unflippable for Dems this decade.

3. Just ignore the court, but then that forces a special master, which again is bad for them.

What makes this different than Alabama is that the only thing in question was how blue AL-02 would be; the rest of the map was never going to change much. However in GA there's not an easy way to just do a minimal change unpack of GA-13. It's also not obvious which current district would be made into the new black district.

For state legislature, the current gerrymanders don't have all that of a margin for error, especially in the State House. Any creation of new black (and hence new D-leaning districts) is a huge punch to the gerrymander.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's my attempt at a "least change" map that complies with this order. 13 is majority black, and was Biden + 18. Holds for 2016-Sen too. 11 is also 50% black and voted over 70% for Biden. 6 retains most of it's core but is bumped down to Trump + 13.

I think no matter what districts 1, 2, 8, and 12 won't change. Everything else risks significant modification.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah the GOP is sort of in a tough spot here on all levels.

For the Congressional map, they have a few options:

1. Draw 4 black Atlanta pack seats, at the expense of GA-07. This could be legally problematic, and force a special master to get involved, in which case the entire Atlanta region may become affected and you end up with a 7-7 map.

2. Draw a new black seat in western Atlanta and use the opportunity to lock in a solid 8-6 map. The problem here is which R seat does the GOP eliminate? However, if they're smart they can use it to shore up the current GA-06 and GA-11 to be completely unflippable for Dems this decade.

3. Just ignore the court, but then that forces a special master, which again is bad for them.

What makes this different than Alabama is that the only thing in question was how blue AL-02 would be; the rest of the map was never going to change much. However in GA there's not an easy way to just do a minimal change unpack of GA-13. It's also not obvious which current district would be made into the new black district.

For state legislature, the current gerrymanders don't have all that of a margin for error, especially in the State House. Any creation of new black (and hence new D-leaning districts) is a huge punch to the gerrymander.

Or concede GA-06 in exchange for a super-safe GA-11.

[Stuart98]

Georgia Republicans should look at this as an opportunity, not a burden:


I feel much better about this map actually getting rid of MTG than I did with Patzer's map earlier, it completely fractures every part of her district (11 has the largest portion of it at 35%) while largely preserving everyone else's (Loudermilk's is the most changed at only 63.6% of his old district)

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah the GOP is sort of in a tough spot here on all levels.

For the Congressional map, they have a few options:

1. Draw 4 black Atlanta pack seats, at the expense of GA-07. This could be legally problematic, and force a special master to get involved, in which case the entire Atlanta region may become affected and you end up with a 7-7 map.

2. Draw a new black seat in western Atlanta and use the opportunity to lock in a solid 8-6 map. The problem here is which R seat does the GOP eliminate? However, if they're smart they can use it to shore up the current GA-06 and GA-11 to be completely unflippable for Dems this decade.

3. Just ignore the court, but then that forces a special master, which again is bad for them.

What makes this different than Alabama is that the only thing in question was how blue AL-02 would be; the rest of the map was never going to change much. However in GA there's not an easy way to just do a minimal change unpack of GA-13. It's also not obvious which current district would be made into the new black district.

For state legislature, the current gerrymanders don't have all that of a margin for error, especially in the State House. Any creation of new black (and hence new D-leaning districts) is a huge punch to the gerrymander.

Or concede GA-06 in exchange for a super-safe GA-11.

That is the million dollar question if the state decides to comply: (probably out of fear that something worse would come via the master) who gets the axe? It won't be long serving Loudermilk, especially since he represents a lot of GOP money that they won't toss to Greene. Though his Seat might get renumbered. Theoretically McCorrmick is the definition of expendable, but after everything that has happened,  it's not hard to imagine them trying to give him a seat he can win reelection in at the expense of Greene or Clyde. Especially Greene,  but her seat would require a targeted carve-up like the post above me.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Georgia Republicans should look at this as an opportunity, not a burden:


I feel much better about this map actually getting rid of MTG than I did with Patzer's map earlier, it completely fractures every part of her district (11 has the largest portion of it at 35%) while largely preserving everyone else's (Loudermilk's is the most changed at only 63.6% of his old district)

Why would Georgia Republicans want to get rid of Greene?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made this 7-7 map with 5 black majority seats. Based on 2020 Presidential numbers.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a04b68-f133-42d6-bcce-1b7d08f176ac

[Stuart98]

Georgia Republicans should look at this as an opportunity, not a burden:


I feel much better about this map actually getting rid of MTG than I did with Patzer's map earlier, it completely fractures every part of her district (11 has the largest portion of it at 35%) while largely preserving everyone else's (Loudermilk's is the most changed at only 63.6% of his old district)

Why would Georgia Republicans want to get rid of Greene?

The state party isn't that Trumpy thanks to Trump's poor relationship with statewide electeds and she's a clear liability for any Republican in the state who's running in a competitive seat. If you've gotta get rid of a house R (and they'd ahve to in order to comply with the court order) then she's clearly the one to get rid of.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Georgia Republicans should look at this as an opportunity, not a burden:


I feel much better about this map actually getting rid of MTG than I did with Patzer's map earlier, it completely fractures every part of her district (11 has the largest portion of it at 35%) while largely preserving everyone else's (Loudermilk's is the most changed at only 63.6% of his old district)

Why would Georgia Republicans want to get rid of Greene?

I think a lot of Republicans in the state and on the hill want her gone but Loudermilk can't beat her in a primary.

[Nyvin]

I'm thinking if it's left to the GAGOP and not the courts, they'll probably just draw a long arm down into Gwinnett County from the northeast part of state and leave the map as 9-5.   

If the court appoints a special master in the end, then there's a lot more potential.

[Stuart98]

Made things even worse for her:

[Oryxslayer]

I'm thinking if it's left to the GAGOP and not the courts, they'll probably just draw a long arm down into Gwinnett County from the northeast part of state and leave the map as 9-5.  

Thats literally what they are doing right now, with GA-09. Gwinnett has the population for 1.25 districts. Between the court court basically ordering them not to touch it - basically saying they won't okay a map like that, and how if they want to keep it at 8-6 they can't give GA-06 too much blue areas, Atlanta is just too hard to crack. If you want to get away with 9-5, you get the 11th to stay the map, not try to argue in bad faith and de facto invite a master.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, here's some quickly whipped up "Destroy Greene" and "Destroy Clyde" (who doesn't even live close to his seat) districts. Albeit the numbering scheme is not totally thrown out the window, so 14 is the successor to 11 in map 1, and 9 the successor to 6 in map 2.

[The Mikado]

Made things even worse for her:

Wouldn't Large Marge just carpetbag down to your District 3 and try to stick around? It has a lot of her old seat.

[Stuart98]

Made things even worse for her:

Wouldn't Large Marge just carpetbag down to your District 3 and try to stick around? It has a lot of her old seat.

3 has 31% of the old 14th, but it's still 69% Drew Ferguson's seat. If MTG wins any of these seats then there's just no getting rid of her, period.

[Minnesota Mike]

Why would Georgia Republicans want to get rid of Greene?

And why would Democrats? National Dems love having MTG to tie to Republicans nationwide.

[Sol]

Trying to get rid of Marjorie Taylor Greene via redistricting is a good way to get her to do something inconvenient, like run for Senate or Governor. Better to dump her the Madison Cawthorn way if Republicans actually want her out.