Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Stuart98]

One thing the Alabama situation is making me wonder: suppose, for the sake of argument, the courts rule that 4 Black districts are necessary in Atlanta. What happens then? Would Clyde and possibly Collins be cool with significantly weakening their districts to preserve the gerrymander? Would the GAGOP even consider punting to the courts like Alabama is right now? It's one thing in Alabama because the rest of the state is so red, but you've got to imagine that a special master remap of Atlanta could get dicey fast.

I feel like if the court insisted a redrawing, the Georgia GOP would probably just try to do a map that gets rid of MTG, considering she's not overly popular in the party as a whole.

I feel like MTG would win that 11th.

[Tekken_Guy]

One thing the Alabama situation is making me wonder: suppose, for the sake of argument, the courts rule that 4 Black districts are necessary in Atlanta. What happens then? Would Clyde and possibly Collins be cool with significantly weakening their districts to preserve the gerrymander? Would the GAGOP even consider punting to the courts like Alabama is right now? It's one thing in Alabama because the rest of the state is so red, but you've got to imagine that a special master remap of Atlanta could get dicey fast.

I feel like if the court insisted a redrawing, the Georgia GOP would probably just try to do a map that gets rid of MTG, considering she's not overly popular in the party as a whole.

I feel like MTG would win that 11th.

Can you explain why she’d be favored over Loudermilk?

[Oryxslayer]

Tomorrow is the start of a multi-day District Court trial concerning several of the cases against Georgia's maps. However, I'm going to be traveling tomorrow, so I hope someone else can transcribe the livethreads that will no doubt emerge.

The cases going to trial are Pendergrass v. Raffensperger, Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity Inc. v. Raffensperger, and Grant v. Raffensperger. These are the three consolidated cases that do not have any 14th Amendment Racial Gerrymandering claims. These three cases solely bring Section 2 VRA claims against Georgia's Congressional, State Senate, and State House district maps. It is therefore similar in legal theory to Milligan, albeit with some legislative complaints included.

The cases will be heard by Judge Steve Jones. This is the same judge who heard the initial request from these consolidated plaintiffs for a Preliminary Injunction against the maps for the 2022 election. That preliminary injunction failed, though under interesting circumstances. Judge Jones found that the plaintiffs were highly likely to succeed on the merits of their claims in the preliminary injunction opinion, but refused (or was unable) to grant the PI following the Purcell precedent set by the Supreme Court earlier that year in regards to Alabama. These consolidated cases  remained in effective holding until Milligan provided guidance and affirmed the current status of the VRA. The cases were then accelerated to this point. This all seems to suggest from the outside looking in that this trial was all but already decided in 2022, with the plaintiffs set to succeed on all counts and separate cases, but perhaps the hearing will reveal more complexities.

It remains uncertain if this case is proceeding fast enough for 2024. The state will no doubt appeal to the 11th Circuit District, though this notably is the same Circuit with responsibility and directive from the Alabama decision. If Jones hands down the anticipated ruling in favor of the plaintiffs, this arena may be the real battle.

The three consolidated plaintiffs in this case share similar but occasionally diverging goals, as revealed during the PI hearings and expert evidence. The sum total of their claims concerns mostly but not entirely the Southern African American Suburbs:

- When it comes to the Pendergrass's complaints against the Congressional Districts (pg. 55-92 in PI) they are very clear that African American residents are under-represented in specifically the Southwest of the Atlanta Metro. District 13 is an overpacking and District 11 and others crack Cobb. Their special master at the time recommended effectively splitting 13: one district encompassing South Fulton, South Cobb, and Douglas; one district with its core in Clayton, Henry, Fayette, and Spalding. Little to No changes were or need be done the the Eastern Metro districts.

- The Two legislative plaintiffs were unified in their findings (pg. 92-128) when it came to the State Senate. Each recommended the creation of three more majority African American Districts. These 3 would be: District 23 in the Eastern Black belt - achieved through shifting district 26 into Macon and her suburbs, District 17 or her successor in Henry and the Southeast suburbs, and District 28 or 16 which would relieve the extreme packing in Clayton County.

- The plaintiffs diverged when it came to the State House districts (pg. 129-171). Both argue for Four additional majority-African American State House districts, but find it possible to create them in different areas. This may lead to more then for access seats being ordered depending upon the specifics of the ruling. Both groups of plaintiffs found the ability to unpack Clayton using what is presently district 74, and to uncrack the Eastern Black Belt around Milledgeville using areas currently sunk into seats around district 128 while reinforcing the region's ability to perform. The two groups of plaintiffs then diverge. Expert Cooper, working for Alpha Phi Alpha found the ability to draw a second seat in the south Suburbs using Griffin in Spalding and outer Henry, as well as unpack Albany in the southwest so as to create a Third majority AA seat in the region. Expert Esselstyn, working for the Grant plaintiffs, found the Ability to create a new majority AA seat in Macon and Warner Robins out of essentially district 147, and the Ability to transform district 64 in Douglas into a majority AA district.

These cases may be independent of those seeking relief when it comes to racial gerrymandering, but  the existence of said cases is not something that can be ignored. In the event of the plaintiffs getting their remap before 2024, cause if everything has to wait for 2026 both cases will be resolved in one way or another, the court will desire to resolve as many of their disputes as possible on a new map. This is why the court accepting state attempts to do things like make district 7 majority AA and not draw 5 Atlanta minority seats is a fantasy. This trick would be handing a smoking gun to other cases plaintiffs, and waste the court more time and money. The other cases Section 2 VRA claims mostly overlap in regard to districts solely influenced by African American voters, and some but not all of these districts have Racial gerrymandering claims attached. These would be resolved. But there are a few additional racial gerrymandering claims and Hispanic + AA coalition Section 2 arguments that will be impossible to be resolved in this dispute without the unlikely order of a full remap. So that suit will probably still continue unless the Supreme Court does something to the racial gerrymandering formula in the South Carolina case.

[GALeftist]

https://apnews.com/article/georgia-redistricting-trial-congress-vote-minorities-b630e253d8bb8859e5fca74773e279b8

Here's an article summarizing Day 1 of the trial.

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a good summary of the first week which focused on the plaintiffs. The second week will seemingly focus on the defense and the state's rebuttal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here is a good summary of the first week which focused on the plaintiffs. The second week will seemingly focus on the defense and the state's rebuttal.

The state’s attorneys have argued that recent elections undermine claims that Black voters are not able to elect candidates of their choice, pointing to the wins of U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath in the Atlanta suburbs and President Joe Biden and U.S. Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in statewide races.

Am I just dense or something, but don't both of those statements work against the state's position?  McBath originally won in the old GA-06, which promptly got redrawn to make it so Republican that she moved to GA-07, displacing Bourdeaux, so two seats that had been Democratic went down to one.  And the argument about Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock just shows that Democrats are no worse than even on a statewide basis -- but they nevertheless have substantial minorities in the state legislature and our House districts.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Here is a good summary of the first week which focused on the plaintiffs. The second week will seemingly focus on the defense and the state's rebuttal.

The state’s attorneys have argued that recent elections undermine claims that Black voters are not able to elect candidates of their choice, pointing to the wins of U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath in the Atlanta suburbs and President Joe Biden and U.S. Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in statewide races.

Am I just dense or something, but don't both of those statements work against the state's position?  McBath originally won in the old GA-06, which promptly got redrawn to make it so Republican that she moved to GA-07, displacing Bourdeaux, so two seats that had been Democratic went down to one.  And the argument about Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock just shows that Democrats are no worse than even on a statewide basis -- but they nevertheless have substantial minorities in the state legislature and our House districts.

Yeah their argument is absolute trash. +1D

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1714673418912641328

[Nyvin]

Here is a good summary of the first week which focused on the plaintiffs. The second week will seemingly focus on the defense and the state's rebuttal.

The state’s attorneys have argued that recent elections undermine claims that Black voters are not able to elect candidates of their choice, pointing to the wins of U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath in the Atlanta suburbs and President Joe Biden and U.S. Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in statewide races.

Am I just dense or something, but don't both of those statements work against the state's position?  McBath originally won in the old GA-06, which promptly got redrawn to make it so Republican that she moved to GA-07, displacing Bourdeaux, so two seats that had been Democratic went down to one.  And the argument about Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock just shows that Democrats are no worse than even on a statewide basis -- but they nevertheless have substantial minorities in the state legislature and our House districts.

Also wtf do statewide elections have to do with a gerrymandering case and black voters electing candidates of their choice?   Do they really think the plaintiffs are saying the congressional map affected the Senate or Presidential elections?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1714673418912641328

This one is for the two cases than have both Section 2 VRA claims and also racial gerrymandering claims. Sometimes against the same districts as the VRA-only suit from earlier, sometimes not.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1717572744059957732

[Stuart98]

Been saying Georgia was the next likeliest southern state to have its map thrown out. GA-13 is just such a blatant black pack and making a new majority black district is so easy.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Been saying Georgia was the next likeliest southern state to have its map thrown out. GA-13 is just such a blatant black pack and making a new majority black district is so easy.

Wasn’t one of Georgia’s VRA performing seats literally needed just one precinct to be changed after the census and instead they redrew it entirely?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1717582161925271973

[kwabbit]

Been saying Georgia was the next likeliest southern state to have its map thrown out. GA-13 is just such a blatant black pack and making a new majority black district is so easy.

Wasn’t one of Georgia’s VRA performing seats literally needed just one precinct to be changed after the census and instead they redrew it entirely?

Are you thinking of DeKalb county being one precinct off from the population quota? It would function as a VRA seat on its own.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Been saying Georgia was the next likeliest southern state to have its map thrown out. GA-13 is just such a blatant black pack and making a new majority black district is so easy.

Wasn’t one of Georgia’s VRA performing seats literally needed just one precinct to be changed after the census and instead they redrew it entirely?

Are you thinking of DeKalb county being one precinct off from the population quota? It would function as a VRA seat on its own.

Yea that’s what it was

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1717582161925271973

Yep, this is exactly what I was thinking (and posted). 

Can almost completely guarantee the new black majority district will be made of all of Douglas county, the southern half of Cobb, and the southwestern part of Fulton.

[Oryxslayer]

See my big effortpost here (from above) on the full findings of the case and what could matter beyond congress to the legislature. According to the judges finding though not every challenged legislative district was ruled in favor of the plaintiffs. Only 2 of the 3 challenged senate seat regions - both in the South Suburbs - were ruled in favor of the plaintiffs. The Judge found the case against SD-23 unconvincing. Similarly, he found 5/6 State House arguments convincing, not accepting the case against Albany and HD-151. However, if a master takes control, additional seats which were not challenged could be made more diverse, given how the South suburbs operate and need uber-AA packs to produce GOP seats. Which brings me to my next point....

Been saying Georgia was the next likeliest southern state to have its map thrown out. GA-13 is just such a blatant black pack and making a new majority black district is so easy.

Wasn’t one of Georgia’s VRA performing seats literally needed just one precinct to be changed after the census and instead they redrew it entirely?

This was not a VRA seat. This was GA-06. However, as we all know, GA-06 at the end of the decade was rather diverse and elected McBath. But of course instead of retaining the 99% perfect district, they kept only 50% of it and bleached the rest. Which has lead to a separate suit going to trial shortly that involves 14th Amendment racial gerrymandering claims against GA-06. This seemingly should be an open and shut argument given how changes were absolutely unnecessary, with only the Supreme Court changing the rules in the SC case as the potential roadblock.

Which leads to one of the more interesting possibilities. If the state punts to a Master, or goes there by trying to follow the orders via GA-07 (aka not following the orders), then the court usually wants to produce products that will resolve other cases implicitly and save everyone time and money. We saw this in AL with the 6 county chops only. If that were to take place here, the court could end up imposing something like this that has 7 Biden seats and a GA-06 demographically similar to it's previous incarnation. (the wider changes are so every AA seat is >50% AA alone or NH race in DRA, something not necessary in remedial maps)



The Second interesting possibility or question is what will the 11th do? This is the same court that had the AL case, which is why things could get spicy.

[Sestak]

Do we actually think this ruling holds up on appeal?

[Del Tachi]

What is the reasoning of this case?  Isn't GA-13 already the least Black of the metro's VRA districts? 

[Nyvin]

What is the reasoning of this case?  Isn't GA-13 already the least Black of the metro's VRA districts? 

No, it's 68% Black.

[Oryxslayer]

What is the reasoning of this case?  Isn't GA-13 already the least Black of the metro's VRA districts? 

LUL

GA-04 is 54.5% by VAP
GA-05 is 50% by VAP
GA-13 is 66.7% by VAP.

And its also cracking at least 4 counties, scatting even more BVAP precincts into the white districts. At the end of last decade, it was the most overpopulated of the BVAP seats.

[Del Tachi]

What is the reasoning of this case?  Isn't GA-13 already the least Black of the metro's VRA districts? 

No, it's 68% Black.

Hmm...per Wikipedia its only 57% Black, but I am seeing ~65% Black listed in some other data sources.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, to refresh the minds of everyone new to this case, this is the plaintiffs map when they applied for a Preliminary Injunction over a year ago. They basically won that hearing, but the judge said he couldn't rule positively in their favor, despite the facts, given Purcell.

[Del Tachi]

This was easy enough to see coming:

The current Republican plan draws a GA-13 that is almost 70% Black VAP; the same district was only 58% Black VAP in 2010.  There could be a VRA challenge to unpack the 13th and create another Black-performing seat in Metro Atlanta, which would mean a D+2 redraw if Republicans are too quick to concede GA-07.

Kemp can preempt this kind of VRA challenge by insisting on another Black-performing seat in Metro Atlanta that also conveniently serves to maximally pack Democrat votes.  Black Democrats representing Metro Atlanta in the legislature would happily trade additional Black representation over keeping GA-07 as a purely Gwinnett-based COI.

There was a map posted by the poster "reagente" a couple of pages back that illustrates the idea.  The following precincts are exactly 4 districts that can each be drawn to be >50% Black VAP.  The remaining northern suburban areas can be shuffled and split between 3 trend-proof seats for the GOP, maybe only 2 but I haven't tested it.