Recent Posts

Show posts from buddies only

I doubt Barrow can win but the margin will very interesting. Are suburban woman pissed off enough to swing the election in such a low turnout affair?
How weak will Barrow be among black voters?

Barrow winning would be a similar earthquake as the 2010 recall of Iowa judges over allowing gay marriage.
 

[Baby Shark Dance]

Once you get to 100K subscribers, your earnings will be around USD $10k per million views.

If you can pump out 52 videos a year, and they each get 1M views (then halving every successive year), your rolling income will be around

• 1st year - US $520k
• 2nd year - US $780k
• 3rd year - US $901k

and so on.

Baby Shark Dance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqZsoesa55w

This video has had 14,522,637,207 views. Based on the analysis above, it has earned around USD $145M for the owner.

So get yourself a couple of singing Eurasian kids, some cheesy underwater graphics and write some god-awful musical score.

One thing that will make it hard to watch a channel is bad audio and almost every channel starts out with bad autio, so get a good microphone.  If you're going to be a talking head, get good lighting too.

[or]

That's close to where I see it, except I think AZ is is Lean Biden. The recent 19th century abortion debacle, combined with Kari Lake being on the ballot again and the general shift in AZ will likely sink Trump unless Biden has such poor performance nationwide that AZ doesn't matter anyway. I.e. I think AZ will vote to the left of all the other undecided states.

Yes, I'm well aware of the polling that shows a strong Trump lead in AZ. I will believe it if I see it in November.

If I am correct, that means Biden needs GA or MI or WI+NV to win, while Trump needs MI and GA and WI or NV.

It is, of course, possible there's a significant nationwide swing for or against either candidate by November and the above becomes most irrelevant as, for example Trump wins PA or Biden wins NC. But if nothing significantly changes between now and November, I think the election is Lean Biden.

Imo Trump is neither an underdog in AZ nor PA right now.

I also wouldn’t move Georgia just yet, or not if one of the rust belt trio states also aren’t being moved to lean.

Why should any of those three states be moved out of the toss-up column? They’re all within 2 points in the polls right now.

I'm curious, what makes folks here choose NZ over Australia? Aside from the language thing, there doesn't seem to be much to suggest one over the other -- NZ has a cooler climate but it also seems to be pretty different qualitatively from the UK.

This may not really be meaningful, but I've been watching Taskmaster recently and I've been struck by the sheer number of people from the Antipodes on there; it seems like the U.K. entertainment industry might be a draw in the same way that ambitious Canadians (and people from everywhere else ofc) go to Hollywood.

Oh man this is amazing, I've also been watching Taskmaster recently and one of my first thoughts upon entering this thread (precisely inspired by that) was that every Kiwi media celebrity seems to have worked in the UK at some point.

Perpetua and Deepstate's maps have the Russians fighting within Liptsy's boundaries. The battle for the town has started. Back in 2022 when the town was under Russian control it was one of the staging areas for artillery shelling of Kharkiv City and it's outskirts:

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=50.211132&lng=36.431351&z=13&d=19860&c=1&l=0

https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/50.2163/36.4430

[US halts funding to controversial virus-hunting group: what researchers think]

US halts funding to controversial virus-hunting group: what researchers think
Some scientists think the decision regarding EcoHealth Alliance is fair; others say it might negatively affect virus surveillance.

The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has suspended federal funding for EcoHealth Alliance, a New York City-based non-profit organization that came under scrutiny during the COVID-19 pandemic for collaborating with a virology laboratory in China that was accused of potentially leaking the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. Researchers who spoke to Nature are divided in their reaction to the decision: some think that the HHS made the right call, given EcoHealth’s apparent failure to comply with the terms of a grant that it had received, undermining public trust; others say that the decision seems to be unfairly wrapped up in politics.

In a memo detailing the decision, Henrietta Brisbon, the HHS’s suspension and debarment official, argued that EcoHealth had not provided adequate oversight of research activities at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), in China. The WIV was a subrecipient of a federal grant awarded to EcoHealth by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), meaning that it was a partner given funds to carry out some of the research covered by the grant. The document also describes how EcoHealth repeatedly failed to provide information requested by the NIH pertaining to the research conducted.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-01460-3

[most will still vote Biden]

I think the angriest will just stay home, vote third party or leave the presidential ballot blank. Ultimately, though, most will still vote Biden because they know Trump will be worse for Gaza and Muslim Americans.

I think the discontent runs deeper than you give it credit for. There’s still time for things to change, though.

Latinos and latinas
College Campusers will mostly likely vote for joe or neither.

For a federal charge, I don't see an obvious reason why such a plea deal would be illegal or unconstitutional, but I'm a little dubious that this could be done with state charges.  But in any case, (a) Trump would never accept the acknowledgement of guilt that a plea deal would require, and (b) the Biden administration would never offer such a deal because it would foster the narrative that the prosecutions were purely political.

Exactly this. What more, it would set a terrible precedent that one can be a just awful criminal before, after, and during one's term in office, and you'll get off with a slap on the wrist and restrictions on being back in office as your punishment. Not exactly good for the rule of law.