UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

Another *possible* byelection raises its head.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

He was also the SNP National Treasurer from 2004–2020; he was defeated in the 2020 SNP internal elections by Douglas Chapman.[7] However when Chapman later resigned in May 2021, stating "I had not received the support or financial information required to carry out the fiduciary duties of National Treasurer", Beattie returned to the position.[8]
...

Lol what?

[Torrain]

If only there had been some sign, some warning that Colin Beattie wasn’t ethically sound:

Married politicians Colin and Lisa Beattie have been censured by Scotland’s standards watchdog for failing to reveal they owned a string of ­properties.

The pair admitted breaching the councillors code of conduct when they appeared at a Standards Commission hearing into a complaint against them.

Mr Beattie, now SNP MP for Midlothian North & Musselburgh and former councillor for Midlothian South ward, and Mrs Beattie, SNP councillor for Midlothian East, between them own five residential properties in Edinburgh and two commercial properties in Fife and Angus.

They failed to declare either their ownership or the income received from the properties in the council’s register of interests, although they were required to do so.

They were formally censured under the Ethical Standards in Public Life etc (Scotland) Act 2000.

I’m being a little facetious, to be clear - I didn’t know about this until a couple of journalists did a google search on Beattie’s name today. But this was out in the open whilst he was Treasurer…

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both of those issues - massive red flags! - were on his actually very brief Wiki biography as well.

[Zinneke]

Let's talk about the Libdems a bit.

What exactly are their key policy points these days? Do they still want to be the Remainer party?

Is Davey a popular figure within his party?

[CumbrianLefty]

The remainism does seem to have been played down a tad, and whilst there does seem to be the odd bit of grumbling about Davey not providing much "excitement" the reality is that he has been strongly insulated from criticism by the string of by-election triumphs. Maybe the only thing that could change that in the short term is a bad GE result, but given the current state of the Tories that seems unlikely.

[Oryxslayer]

The impression that I get is after 10+ years of adventuring with fixed wedge issues and and clear policy proposals, Davey or those behind him are recognizing that is not beneficial. Instead, the amorphous party that stands for 'the opposite of whatever policies proposed by the regions incumbents' seems to be the operating order. We will get a data point on the state of the Lib-Dems in a few weeks, but that tactic appears to be working in a time-for-change environment.

[Torrain]

Beattie has resigned as SNP Treasurer. Also suspending his membership of Holyrood’s Public Audit Committee whilst the investigation goes on.

Worth noting, due to combination of provisions in the party constitution and electoral law, when the SNP Treasurer resigns, the role is automatically assumed, on an interim basis, by the party leader - one Humza Yousaf.

[Oryxslayer]

Websites are running with the SNP rumor right now that Sturgeon herself might be taken in next...

[Torrain]

It’s all speculation at the minute - but you can see where it comes from. As has been pointed out by ever Scottish journalist at this point, there were three “responsible party officers” on the SNP’s last audit. Two (Murrell and Beattie) have been arrested, the other is Nicola Sturgeon…

In other news - it sounds like the report into allegations of bullying against Dominic Raab will drop today. Guardian suggests Sunak might get it as early as 11.30am. Downing Street has been briefing out possible successors at DoJ all week (Culture Sec Lucy Frazer seems to be the frontrunner), which doesn’t seem like a great sign for Raab. Then again, this is the PM who re-adopted Suella Braverman as Home Secretary, so who knows what staffing decision he’ll actually make today.

[afleitch]

It’s all speculation at the minute - but you can see where it comes from. As has been pointed out by ever Scottish journalist at this point, there were three “responsible party officers” on the SNP’s last audit. Two (Murrell and Beattie) have been arrested, the other is Nicola Sturgeon…

It is a requirement of electoral law that the party leader is one of the "responsible party officers" in accounts filed with the Electoral Commission. Given two arrests and release without charge (rather than interviews under caution, as has been noted) they have to be very careful in doing the same to someone named in the accounts for administrative purposes only.

[JimJamUK]

Let's talk about the Libdems a bit.

What exactly are their key policy points these days? Do they still want to be the Remainer party?

Is Davey a popular figure within his party?

The public’s view of the Lib Dems atm can basically be summed up as ‘meh’. They don’t really notice them, they don’t know what most of their main policies are, and they certainly don’t know what an ‘Ed Davey’ is. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The party is not about to surge in support, but it is bland and inoffensive enough that it can focus on rebuilding its council base and at both council and general elections can easily position itself as the NOTA option. Again, that isn’t going to result in massive gains at the general election and their vote share is pretty anaemic nationally, but it’s not a party that is about to disappear.

[Blair]

Yeah a strange quirk is that you only realise notice them if they’re interested in your area electorally; they have been pushing quite hard over ambulance delays and their outreach operation on ‘rural’ issues has gotten very good and I expect we might see some rather lopsided results at the next general election.

Davey is relatively inoffensive and tbh their starting on such a low level that people can’t really expect much greatness

[Conservatopia]

I've long thought that the LDs should change their branding towards a more "Local Democrats" sort of branding, perhaps similar to the Czech Republic's Mayors and Independents. Avoid taking notable stances on issues like Europe and so on and focus on building a broad, decentralized, centrist localist movement that will break through to Westminster level over 5-10 years. They would need to settle the constant question of coalitions, perhaps by stating that as a primarily localist movement they will never go into government but will provide support to any colour government on an issue by issue basis.

They appear to be following something a bit like this model but are constantly tempted to be radical and noticed nationally.

[Cassius]

On the basis of current polling they look set to lose a fair chunk of their 2019 vote (because falling from 12% to 8 or 9% is a big drop, even if it doesn’t look it due to their low starting point). I don’t think that this will harm them too much when it comes to trying to make gains in Tory seats as I expect their vote to be far more concentrated than it was last time round. In 2019 their vote share went up almost everywhere, even in pro-Leave seats, due to their sucking in ardent remain supporters and Labour protest votes, and many of these votes will probably return to Labour come 2024, other than in areas where they are definitively the main challenger (although that doesn’t make those seats an automatic Liberal-Democrat flip - in 1997 there were a number of Tory seats that they failed to win even though they were, on paper, the main challenger on the basis of the ‘92 results, due to how much the Labour vote increased).

[Oryxslayer]

On the basis of current polling they look set to lose a fair chunk of their 2019 vote (because falling from 12% to 8 or 9% is a big drop, even if it doesn’t look it due to their low starting point). I don’t think that this will harm them too much when it comes to trying to make gains in Tory seats as I expect their vote to be far more concentrated than it was last time round. In 2019 their vote share went up almost everywhere, even in pro-Leave seats, due to their sucking in ardent remain supporters and Labour protest votes, and many of these votes will probably return to Labour come 2024, other than in areas where they are definitively the main challenger (although that doesn’t make those seats an automatic Liberal-Democrat flip - in 1997 there were a number of Tory seats that they failed to win even though they were, on paper, the main challenger on the basis of the ‘92 results, due to how much the Labour vote increased).

In terms of national strategy, yeah the Lib-Dems don't seem to have one right now besides taking advantage of voter anger. But from their current position - do they really need one? If 2024 proves to be the time-for-change election we expect, 15-25 currently conservative seats should just fall into Lib-Dem hands by nature of their past results. That's probably fine if you are starting from such a low point in Westminster.

However, there are rumblings that tactical voting may be rising presently because voters specifically disapprove of the Tory party (not Sunak right now) and a solid chunk of the voters Labour has gained in polls come from politically engaged demographics. This isn't something that would be caught by national trackers, nor is it that controllable by the Lib-Dem apparatus. But we will know if it exists in two weeks - there are plenty of councils where Labour have nothing and its the Lib-Dems (or in one case the Greens) who are threatening the Tories for control.

[Torrain]

They do just seem most comfortable on local turf, generally.

The local/national tension in the Lib Dems has to be one of the things that hurt them in 2015. You can't run on local issues, putting up local GPs, councillors, etc on a platform of fixing local issues, and then expect your voters to understand why you then sign up to a platform of "country first" austerity and fiscal tightening. 

If you were going to boil that tension down to an overly simplistic, meme format, you could do worse than this contrast in enthusiasm:

   

[CumbrianLefty]

Loads of excited Dominic Raab rumours flying about just now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Loads of excited Dominic Raab rumours flying about just now.

Like tomatoes, no doubt.

[Torrain]

Sunak not going to make a decision today, per the BBC.

Pretty clear what Labour’s line will be about this.

[JimJamUK]

However, there are rumblings that tactical voting may be rising presently because voters specifically disapprove of the Tory party (not Sunak right now) and a solid chunk of the voters Labour has gained in polls come from politically engaged demographics. This isn't something that would be caught by national trackers, nor is it that controllable by the Lib-Dem apparatus. But we will know if it exists in two weeks - there are plenty of councils where Labour have nothing and its the Lib-Dems (or in one case the Greens) who are threatening the Tories for control.

Partly agree. The tactical voting situation should happen nationally to some degree, but local elections can be a bad guide to it. There are plenty of areas where Labour have little organisation and the Lib Dems are the main non-Tory party for council elections, but nonetheless Labour are challenging if not clearly 2nd place at the general election. Some of this is because the Lib Dems are good at local elections, but it’s also down to the ‘national tactical vote’ where a lot of voters don’t really know much about their local situation and just default to the ‘obvious’ non-Conservative option nationally, the Labour Party. There’s also a lot of semi-detached voters who only show up at general elections, and these people are very much not Lib Dem inclined. So there will be places where the Lib Dem local strength is a precursor to them gaining the constituency next election, and others where it is yet another false dawn.

[Oryxslayer]

However, there are rumblings that tactical voting may be rising presently because voters specifically disapprove of the Tory party (not Sunak right now) and a solid chunk of the voters Labour has gained in polls come from politically engaged demographics. This isn't something that would be caught by national trackers, nor is it that controllable by the Lib-Dem apparatus. But we will know if it exists in two weeks - there are plenty of councils where Labour have nothing and its the Lib-Dems (or in one case the Greens) who are threatening the Tories for control.

Partly agree. The tactical voting situation should happen nationally to some degree, but local elections can be a bad guide to it. There are plenty of areas where Labour have little organisation and the Lib Dems are the main non-Tory party for council elections, but nonetheless Labour are challenging if not clearly 2nd place at the general election. Some of this is because the Lib Dems are good at local elections, but it’s also down to the ‘national tactical vote’ where a lot of voters don’t really know much about their local situation and just default to the ‘obvious’ non-Conservative option nationally, the Labour Party. There’s also a lot of semi-detached voters who only show up at general elections, and these people are very much not Lib Dem inclined. So there will be places where the Lib Dem local strength is a precursor to them gaining the constituency next election, and others where it is yet another false dawn.

Oh of course, I'm talking about the inclination in general, not the feasibility of transfers from Lib-Dem local voters to Lib-Dem national voters. The Lib-Dems being the natural opposition to the big parties in their strongholds might give them a large councilor intake on May 4th, but their voters then go back to the big two come a GE. (Though you can find a few places where the Lib-Dems are clearly looking to the future, such as in Mid Devon where they are hoping to convent the voters who swung for the by-election into a reliable base)

[Blair]

The Raaaab thing isn’t a huge surprise as when Tolley was appointed a lot of people pointed out he was a very good KC but his previous work had largely been around tribunals and HR disputes for large organisations e.g government departments. Not the type who was likely to do a one page saying ‘sack him.’

So there was always a chance the report would end up as relatively dry and not exactly clear cut- add the fact he wasn’t even asked to rule on the whether the ministerial code was broken.

There’s a chance Sunak ducks it and asks his own ministerial ethics adviser to rule on it but still very strange. What does Raab bring to a Government? Good on the media round? Competent with his brief?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1649334236216713219

Weird rollout here. He briefed out he wouldn’t resign - which lead a number of the papers. And less than an hour ago, the Transport Secretary suggested Sunak might not even decide today whether to fire Raab.

[Conservatopia]

In epic bants the BBC website has the Raab resignation story and then just underneath that, there's this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2w3wnjd8ro