Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Ferguson97]

Betting markets are trash, they have Hillary at like 3.7 chance at being the Democratic nominee, and have her and Michelle Obama both more likely than Sanders lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1267199885092294659

The typo ("predation" for "prediction") is unintentionally funny.

Is there any data on Who was the odds on favorite both parties in previous cycles? At this point I mean

Mr. Morden keeps a running update on Betfair odds here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252766.0.  It includes comparisons with the same point in the last few cycles.

[Cory]

Would Oprah Winfrey be a decent dark horse VP pick for Biden perhaps?

She brings money, positive name ID and goodwill, and the implication that she may run in 2024. It could be a "return to normalcy" ticket.

The issue is that she would obviously overshadow the nominee which goes against conventional wisdom.

[President Johnson]

Would Oprah Winfrey be a decent dark horse VP pick for Biden perhaps?

She brings money, positive name ID and goodwill, and the implication that she may run in 2024. It could be a "return to normalcy" ticket.

The issue is that she would obviously overshadow the nominee which goes against conventional wisdom.

She would be hit on the experience issue. Hasn't ever served in elected or appointed office. We're talking about a 77 year old nominee here.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Would Oprah Winfrey be a decent dark horse VP pick for Biden perhaps?

She brings money, positive name ID and goodwill, and the implication that she may run in 2024. It could be a "return to normalcy" ticket.

The issue is that she would obviously overshadow the nominee which goes against conventional wisdom.

[Donerail]

Susan Rice apparently went on CNN to talk about how the riots are a Russian operation. Sure.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Susan Rice apparently went on CNN to talk about how the riots are a Russian operation. Sure.

Automatic VP vetting? Nice!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Would Oprah Winfrey be a decent dark horse VP pick for Biden perhaps?

She brings money, positive name ID and goodwill, and the implication that she may run in 2024. It could be a "return to normalcy" ticket.

The issue is that she would obviously overshadow the nominee which goes against conventional wisdom.

Why? And another thing when has Joe Biden rocked the boat in the history of ever? He would never pick someone so insanely under qualified. Like.... stop.

[Ogre Mage]

Would Oprah Winfrey be a decent dark horse VP pick for Biden perhaps?

She brings money, positive name ID and goodwill, and the implication that she may run in 2024. It could be a "return to normalcy" ticket.

The issue is that she would obviously overshadow the nominee which goes against conventional wisdom.

Thanks, this was my laugh for the day. 

(Though President Biden's VP might consider an interview with Oprah at some point).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Is hearing "Warren loses us a Senate seat" like nails on a chalkboard for anyone else? I feel like this has been addressed a hundred times, the legislature will just change the law like they've done before, and yet people who should know better like Harry Enten are bringing it up in CNN articles.

Pundits can be really superficial because their job is to break politics down into bite-size, surface-level analyses that most people can relate to. They also try to create compelling storylines and pros-and-cons in order to make it more interesting. I don't blame them either, they have tight deadlines and are under tons of pressure to put out interesting takes constantly.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Betting markets are trash, they have Hillary at like 3.7 chance at being the Democratic nominee, and have her and Michelle Obama both more likely than Sanders lol.

Predictit is insane. Reading the comments is like reading YouTube comments. Deplorables everywhere.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/emarvelous/status/1267255456948518918

[Devils30]

Biden might have fine poll numbers but after this weekend I think a less cultural inflammatory VP is in order. I doubt Klobuchar is as toxic to people as the far left believes.

[CookieDamage]

Biden might have fine poll numbers but after this weekend I think a less cultural inflammatory VP is in order. I doubt Klobuchar is as toxic to people as the far left believes.

She's attached to this scandal whether you like it or not, picking her would cause too many headaches. Also, are you implying that other VP picks are culturally flammable?

[Devils30]

Harris and Warren are for sure. But lets see where we are in 2 months.

[brucejoel99]

Before this week, I think Biden was open to a non-POC VP, but this will force his hand. With Demings (strong pick) and Harris (horrible pick) both having law enforcement backgrounds, even though more conventionally qualified, they're likely to see their odds drop.

This is a false argument. Firstly, Black voters (generalizing for the sake of discussion) voted for Biden in the primary because he already represents the politics that they believe in, so the ideological representation of Black voters is already on the ticket: at the top of the ticket. Secondly, the Democratic Party is more than just one African-American voting bloc. Other groups' ideological politics - young Black voters, LGBTQ+ voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, & all other voters - deserve to be represented as well by an ideologically left candidate. This isn't Harris, nor Demings, nor really anybody else but Warren.

I'd also recommend listening to 538's most recent podcast on this subject, which points out that it isn't clear from polling that a woman of color would encourage Black turnout (& it's not even a pro-Warren piece or anything). And I'll just say this: believing that the VP needs to be a woman of color in light of recent events - rather than an actual agenda for Black Americans (let alone a comprehensive & robust one) being needed - is why such an argument comes off as more-than-a-bit tokenizing. I heard somebody in an interview yesterday talking about police brutality & they mentioned Black politicians in Washington: he said that racial representation isn't enough because Black politicians have been unable to change the system that, thus far, has killed Black people. We've had a Black President, Black Attorneys General, & other Black politicians hold influential positions within government, & yet we continue to have a broken criminal justice system & still suffer from numerous civil rights issues.

So honestly, I can't see why it wouldn't be Warren, given the unfortunate state of our current affairs: Michigan is having issues with COVID-19 & the Edenville Dam's failure, so I don't see how Whitmer can help Biden's campaign there or in the Midwest if she's forced to shift focus from her gubernatorial duties to a presidential campaign. That's gonna leave a bad taste in people's mouths in that region & deter Democratic turnouts. The recent race riots have shed light on Klobuchar's prosecutorial record, specifically how she once declined to prosecute the officer responsible. That's not gonna appeal to voters of color, & may indeed discourage turnout. And should she become the VP pick, the recent police killings of unarmed Black people & the resultant race riots will force Harris' prosecutorial record into the media & voters' limelight yet again, particularly to the chargin of those on the Democratic Party's left. And of course Stacey Abrams still ain't happening for all of the reasons that have already been mentioned on here countless times: lacking relevant experience, next-to-no name-recognition at the national level, blatantly auditioning for the V.P. slot, etc.

Anybody else I'm missing? If not, then it's really just Warren who checks all of the boxes at this point.

[T'Chenka]

I say boo-urns to Klobuchar. We don't need another snowflake POTUS if (heaven forbid) something happens to Biden.

[Orwell]

Before this week, I think Biden was open to a non-POC VP, but this will force his hand. With Demings (strong pick) and Harris (horrible pick) both having law enforcement backgrounds, even though more conventionally qualified, they're likely to see their odds drop.

This is a false argument. Firstly, Black voters (generalizing for the sake of discussion) voted for Biden in the primary because he already represents the politics that they believe in, so the ideological representation of Black voters is already on the ticket: at the top of the ticket. Secondly, the Democratic Party is more than just one African-American voting bloc. Other groups' ideological politics - young Black voters, LGBTQ+ voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, & all other voters - deserve to be represented as well by an ideologically left candidate. This isn't Harris, nor Demings, nor really anybody else but Warren.

I'd also recommend listening to 538's most recent podcast on this subject, which points out that it isn't clear from polling that a woman of color would encourage Black turnout (& it's not even a pro-Warren piece or anything). And I'll just say this: believing that the VP needs to be a woman of color in light of recent events - rather than an actual agenda for Black Americans (let alone a comprehensive & robust one) being needed - is why such an argument comes off as more-than-a-bit tokenizing. I heard somebody in an interview yesterday talking about police brutality & they mentioned Black politicians in Washington: he said that racial representation isn't enough because Black politicians have been unable to change the system that, thus far, has killed Black people. We've had a Black President, Black Attorneys General, & other Black politicians hold influential positions within government, & yet we continue to have a broken criminal justice system & still suffer from numerous civil rights issues.

So honestly, I can't see why it wouldn't be Warren, given the unfortunate state of our current affairs: Michigan is having issues with COVID-19 & the Edenville Dam's failure, so I don't see how Whitmer can help Biden's campaign there or in the Midwest if she's forced to shift focus from her gubernatorial duties to a presidential campaign. That's gonna leave a bad taste in people's mouths in that region & deter Democratic turnouts. The recent race riots have shed light on Klobuchar's prosecutorial record, specifically how she once declined to prosecute the officer responsible. That's not gonna appeal to voters of color, & may indeed discourage turnout. And should she become the VP pick, the recent police killings of unarmed Black people & the resultant race riots will force Harris' prosecutorial record into the media & voters' limelight yet again, particularly to the chargin of those on the Democratic Party's left. And of course Stacey Abrams still ain't happening for all of the reasons that have already been mentioned on here countless times: lacking relevant experience, next-to-no name-recognition at the national level, blatantly auditioning for the V.P. slot, etc.

Anybody else I'm missing? If not, then it's really just Warren who checks all of the boxes at this point.

Yes the 70 year old Harvard Professor is the one that will work to further connect the party with the Working Class and Young voters

[brucejoel99]

Before this week, I think Biden was open to a non-POC VP, but this will force his hand. With Demings (strong pick) and Harris (horrible pick) both having law enforcement backgrounds, even though more conventionally qualified, they're likely to see their odds drop.

This is a false argument. Firstly, Black voters (generalizing for the sake of discussion) voted for Biden in the primary because he already represents the politics that they believe in, so the ideological representation of Black voters is already on the ticket: at the top of the ticket. Secondly, the Democratic Party is more than just one African-American voting bloc. Other groups' ideological politics - young Black voters, LGBTQ+ voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, & all other voters - deserve to be represented as well by an ideologically left candidate. This isn't Harris, nor Demings, nor really anybody else but Warren.

I'd also recommend listening to 538's most recent podcast on this subject, which points out that it isn't clear from polling that a woman of color would encourage Black turnout (& it's not even a pro-Warren piece or anything). And I'll just say this: believing that the VP needs to be a woman of color in light of recent events - rather than an actual agenda for Black Americans (let alone a comprehensive & robust one) being needed - is why such an argument comes off as more-than-a-bit tokenizing. I heard somebody in an interview yesterday talking about police brutality & they mentioned Black politicians in Washington: he said that racial representation isn't enough because Black politicians have been unable to change the system that, thus far, has killed Black people. We've had a Black President, Black Attorneys General, & other Black politicians hold influential positions within government, & yet we continue to have a broken criminal justice system & still suffer from numerous civil rights issues.

So honestly, I can't see why it wouldn't be Warren, given the unfortunate state of our current affairs: Michigan is having issues with COVID-19 & the Edenville Dam's failure, so I don't see how Whitmer can help Biden's campaign there or in the Midwest if she's forced to shift focus from her gubernatorial duties to a presidential campaign. That's gonna leave a bad taste in people's mouths in that region & deter Democratic turnouts. The recent race riots have shed light on Klobuchar's prosecutorial record, specifically how she once declined to prosecute the officer responsible. That's not gonna appeal to voters of color, & may indeed discourage turnout. And should she become the VP pick, the recent police killings of unarmed Black people & the resultant race riots will force Harris' prosecutorial record into the media & voters' limelight yet again, particularly to the chargin of those on the Democratic Party's left. And of course Stacey Abrams still ain't happening for all of the reasons that have already been mentioned on here countless times: lacking relevant experience, next-to-no name-recognition at the national level, blatantly auditioning for the V.P. slot, etc.

Anybody else I'm missing? If not, then it's really just Warren who checks all of the boxes at this point.

Yes the 70 year old Harvard Professor is the one that will work to further connect the party with the Working Class and Young voters

Thank you for clearly not reading anything I actually said.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Firstly, Black voters (generalizing for the sake of discussion) voted for Biden in the primary because he already represents the politics that they believe in, so the ideological representation of Black voters is already on the ticket: at the top of the ticket. Secondly, the Democratic Party is more than just one African-American voting bloc. Other groups' ideological politics - young Black voters, LGBTQ+ voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, & all other voters - deserve to be represented as well by an ideologically left candidate. This isn't Harris, nor Demings, nor really anybody else but Warren.

Black voters chose Biden because he was supposed to be the candidate most palatable to white voters. Now when folks ask for a Black VP all of a sudden Biden can't win white people on his own and needs to choose XYZ white candidate who ignored Black voters until they were running in the primary.

Harris and others are just as progressive as Warren. Most voters are not even ideological so not understanding why the only way progressive values will be represented on the ticket is if it's Warren.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Firstly, Black voters (generalizing for the sake of discussion) voted for Biden in the primary because he already represents the politics that they believe in, so the ideological representation of Black voters is already on the ticket: at the top of the ticket. Secondly, the Democratic Party is more than just one African-American voting bloc. Other groups' ideological politics - young Black voters, LGBTQ+ voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, & all other voters - deserve to be represented as well by an ideologically left candidate. This isn't Harris, nor Demings, nor really anybody else but Warren.

Black voters chose Biden because he was supposed to be the candidate most palatable to white voters. Now when folks ask for a Black VP all of a sudden Biden can't win white people on his own and needs to choose XYZ white candidate who ignored Black voters until they were running in the primary.

Harris and others are just as progressive as Warren. Most voters are not even ideological so not understanding why the only way progressive values will be represented on the ticket is if it's Warren.

Warren is more progressive than Harris.

[Morning in Atlas]

I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say Harris is as prorgressive, but I believe that Harris is a better VP pick. While I would trust Warren to pull Biden to the left, I think the campaign gains more from Kamala's appeal to black voters.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Firstly, Black voters (generalizing for the sake of discussion) voted for Biden in the primary because he already represents the politics that they believe in, so the ideological representation of Black voters is already on the ticket: at the top of the ticket. Secondly, the Democratic Party is more than just one African-American voting bloc. Other groups' ideological politics - young Black voters, LGBTQ+ voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, & all other voters - deserve to be represented as well by an ideologically left candidate. This isn't Harris, nor Demings, nor really anybody else but Warren.

Black voters chose Biden because he was supposed to be the candidate most palatable to white voters. Now when folks ask for a Black VP all of a sudden Biden can't win white people on his own and needs to choose XYZ white candidate who ignored Black voters until they were running in the primary.

Harris and others are just as progressive as Warren. Most voters are not even ideological so not understanding why the only way progressive values will be represented on the ticket is if it's Warren.

You also seem to have failed to read what he wrote.
1) Biden won the overwhelming support of black voters, on the backs of old blacks. They’re suppprt for him never wavered in the primary and they got the candidate they wanted. They also are simultaneously the most likely to vote and are the voters that would be excited by a black VP. There’s no more upside trying to appeal to them.

2) Warren didn’t ignore Black voters. If anything, she’s been the most consistent in both the primary and the Veepstakes on pushing policies to help the Black community.

I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say Harris is more prorgressive, but I believe that Harris is a better VP pick. While I would trust Warren to pull Biden to the left, I think the campaign gains more from Kamala's appeal to black voters.

3) Harris does have a progressive voting record in the Senate, but it’s her prosecutorial record that is the issue here. Democratic voters don’t like law enforcement officers, as the events of this week show.

4) There are 2 groups of voters that Biden can and needs to expand his support in: Hispanics ad young voters. I’m not sure what candidate appeals to Hispanics, but Warren always had strong support from voters under 30 in the primary, 2nd behind Bernie. Young Black voters never supported Biden. They care more about the policies a candidate pushes and their record of fighting for those policies. Warren would be a good choice to bring them more into the fold.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warren is more progressive than Harris.

K. Like I said both are progressive and most voters are not ideological. That you think X voter will really care about the nuance of their healthcare policy or where they stand on corporate taxes is funny.

You also seem to have failed to read what he wrote.
1) Biden won the overwhelming support of black voters, on the backs of old blacks. They’re suppprt for him never wavered in the primary and they got the candidate they wanted. They also are simultaneously the most likely to vote and are the voters that would be excited by a black VP. There’s no more upside trying to appeal to them.

2) Warren didn’t ignore Black voters. If anything, she’s been the most consistent in both the primary and the Veepstakes on pushing policies to help the Black community.

No I read it and didn't agree. And that last point is not true. Warren does not have receipts in Black spaces. Period. I'm glad that woke Black blue checks supported her on Twitter (I did as well for much of the primary) but that doesn't substitute an actual record (that Kamala has and doesn't have to build one overnight if selected). Kamala centered Black women in her platform but her actual policies were ignored for whatever reason. She has also been very vocal on COVID-19's disproportionate impact on Black people and the recent killings of unarmed Black Americans by vigilantes and police officers.

Young, Black voters are not all enamored by Warren and Bernie. Many don't know who she is nor have they even tuned in yet so I'm not convinced that Warren will be this big boon for young Black people.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Warren is more progressive than Harris.

K. Like I said both are progressive and most voters are not ideological. That you think X voter will really care about the nuance of their healthcare policy or where they stand on corporate taxes is funny.

You also seem to have failed to read what he wrote.
1) Biden won the overwhelming support of black voters, on the backs of old blacks. They’re suppprt for him never wavered in the primary and they got the candidate they wanted. They also are simultaneously the most likely to vote and are the voters that would be excited by a black VP. There’s no more upside trying to appeal to them.

2) Warren didn’t ignore Black voters. If anything, she’s been the most consistent in both the primary and the Veepstakes on pushing policies to help the Black community.

No I read it and didn't agree. And that last point is not true. Warren does not have receipts in Black spaces. Period. I'm glad that woke Black blue checks supported her on Twitter (I did as well for much of the primary) but that doesn't substitute an actual record (that Kamala has and doesn't have to build one overnight if selected). Kamala centered Black women in her platform but her actual policies were ignored for whatever reason. She has also been very vocal on COVID-19's disproportionate impact on Black people and the recent killings of unarmed Black Americans by vigilantes and police officers.

Young, Black voters are not all enamored by Warren and Bernie. Many don't know who she is nor have they even tuned in yet so I'm not convinced that Warren will be this big boon for young Black people.

Yeah, because that's totally what I said.