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The continuity SDP candidate's spread in the booklet of mayoral mini-manifestos that gets sent out to every London voter was centred around 'Stand Up To Woke' in large letters. They seem pretty much indistinguishable from a crankish far-right populist outfit these days.

24 hours after the election, PS and JPP have reach a deal to present an "alternative government" and will announce it tonight in a joint press conference.

The PS-JPP joint press conference was a bit weird. First, reporters weren't allowed to ask questions to the party leaders, second, other parties weren't informed or contacted about the details of this "compromise", and third, it's odd that in an announcement of a government compromise one of the sides, in this case JPP, says that "if this doesn't work, we're going home". Paulo Cafôfo, PS leader, says that alternation is needed in Madeira and that this compromise with JPP can ensure a "stable but responsible" government. JPP says that they could not sit by and let this opportunity pass and present an alternative to the near 50 years of PSD rule, and both challenge other parties, CDS, IL and PAN, to join PS and JPP.

24 hours later, the PS/JPP compromise ended: Miguel Albuquerque was asked to form a government.

PSD-M leader Miguel Albuquerque was asked to form a government by the Representative of the Republic, Ireneu Barreto. Mr. Barreto met with parties represented in the regional assembly and Albuquerque was the one who got more support, as CDS, after meeting in the morning with the PSD, decided to support Albuquerque rather than to join the PS/JPP compromise. Albuquerque confirmed he will sign a confidence and supply agreement with CDS, and has the guarantee that CHEGA will not vote against the PSD and will abstain.

On the national scene, the day was marked by the 6-hour visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Portugal:

Press conference after the meeting.

After visits to Spain and Belgium, President Zelensky arrived at Lisbon airport this Tuesday afternoon. He was greated by President Marcelo and PM Montenegro and received military honours. He then had a 1-hour long meeting with PM Montenegro where a 10-year agreement between Portugal and Ukraine was signed. This agreement will give further aid to Ukraine, military and financial, worth of at least 126 million euros in 2024 (100 million already given plus an additional 26 million), pilot training, delivery of jets, tanks and ammunition and also plans for the reconstrution of Ukraine after the war. Zelensky thanked Portugal for its support in the war against Russia, while PM Montenegro pressed on Portugal's support for Ukraine's candidacy to the EU and NATO. Portugal also said they will put more effort on diplomatic talks in order for more countries to join the Switzerland Peace Summit, to be held this June, with Montenegro saying that Portugal was able to convince the Dominican Republic and is now working on São Tomé and Principe. Then, President Zelensky met with President Marcelo and ended the trip with a working dinner with the President and the PM.

Wee bit of candidate news:

LBC’s Iain Dale has quit radio to run for the Tories in Tunbridge Wells. 15k majority in 2019, and held by the party since its 1974 creation.

And in Birmingham Northfield (one of Labour’s easiest target seats), the Labour candidate Alex Aiken is standing down over “personal challenges which have arisen recently”.

Dale is fascinating; was chief do staff to David Davis, and a firm Brexiteer but over the recent years has been more of a Tory Wet- for those who listen to his podcast it’s quite funny as he has been a strong critic of the government over immigration (he’s very pro) and various other issues.

The nature of his radio show means he can claim to have a relatively wide ranging interest in policy that isn’t exactly typical for a Tory; he did a lot on British airways poor treatment of staff during covid.

He would be an interesting MP; but I am surprised as it’s signing up for 5 years in opposition.

Of these it would have to be Calgary as the others are way too cold in winter, but I'd probably prefer Lethbridge as I think I'd choose live in a smaller city.

I don’t think so.

It would be chaotic, disorganized, rushed, and an overall folly.

No one likes Harris, so she is doomed if she picked up the mantle.

Anyone else would need time for the electorate to give proper name recognition. While Newsom is a Mitt Romney like snake, but even worse, he’s not universally known. Name recognition takes an electoral cycle to cement. (Why Romney was smart to campaign in 2008, and then ready for 2012 as an example).

It’s Biden or bust at this point.

I actually agree with this. If some of the names mentioned as Presidential candidates (Newsom, Whitmer, etc.) were stronger than Biden they would have primaried him

No Conservative MPs have announced they're standing down since the Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom double whammy on Friday evening. Surely that's not the last of them?

Biden is full of sh**t.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1795563961863016528

It's not a "major ground operation".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv22pl9p212o

Also, the fact Israel tanks can get to the centre of Rafah with little real opposition is telling.

I think Hamas is hiding in these Tunnels. IDF has to blow these up to get them.

I don't think James will have much an issue this year with Trump likely to win the district again. 2022 was close because Democrats dominated upballot.

I think James is one of the first Republicans to lose in 2026 though if Trump is in the White House.

Part of what I don't understand is why Dems didn't spend more against James here in 2022? As soon as it became clear Whitmer was pretty heavily favored in the Governor's race, it was pretty clear that she would carry this district at the top of the ticket. Additionally, James lost this district in his 2020 Senate bid despite outrunning Trump statewide. Bailing on this race in 2022 was a mistake for Dems imo.

Two things here- if Biden is winning Indies by 6 & 10, he's winning MI. He won them by 6 in 2020.

Another LOL at the white voter swing - Trump +3 with white voters (he was +11 in 2020), while Biden is +60 with black voters (+85 in 2020)

A lot of the swing however comes from their "non-whites who aren't black" sample which has Trump +40, despite Biden winning Latinos in 2020 lol

Thank you for always diving through the numbers and pointing this out. Although nobody can predict the election, this makes it better to put the polls in context.

No problem - some will accuse me of crosstab diving for a narrative but I think we just need to pause and take stock of things like this. No, White voters are not going to shift nearly 10% to Biden, and black voters are not going to swing 25% towards Trump. Some will say these things balance out but that's not necessarily true.

There's no reason to believe Biden will suddenly have this huge left swing with white voters while simultaneously having a huge right swing among black voters.

The Trump +40 among other non-whites is probably just bc of low sampling, but much like the ridiculous IA polls in 2020, there's no way you should be getting 40-50% swings bc of a low size sample. That's just a bad sample.

It seems like every poll that has 'other' has janky crosstabs for it. Michigan doesn't really have a big enough Hispanic population to have stable crosstabs, so pollsters should simplify and make two categories: Non Hispanic-White and non-NH-White. As it is, other just seems to collect a lot of right wing White people who don't want to say White for whatever reason.