Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

The Difference between picking up seats in a Biden Midterm and picking up seats in Trump midterm is that Prez party it goes by their approvals, it's showing a 51/49 Approvals the Ds aren't gonna have a plus 8 Midterms it's gonna be more of a Neutral cycle.

We have the MO plus 15 R poll and the TX 06 that should tell you right there how South is Trending fast R.

2010/2014/ we didn't lose Northern sears we lost Southern seats

We are gonna probably have a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker beating WARNOCK and D's winning WI, PA and NH

D's can indeed lose the H in 2022/ based on TX and FL Redistricting but not lose Prez Election in 2024 based on WI, PA and MI

Democrats can expect to have Congressional seats in Missouri -- only in greater Kansas City and St. Louis. Missouri's two largest metro areas are not growing, at least on the Missouri side. Springfield seems to have a little growth, buit it is a reactionary community. In other states, redistricting may have strange results.  Of course I expect Republican majorities in several state legislatures to try to consolidate Congressional districts of two Democrats. where the number of Congressional seats shrinks.

At this stage redistricting is a matter of rumors. Know well, though, that in 2010 Dubya was slightly toxic but irrelevant; in 2022 Donald Trump is more toxic and highly relevant. Dubya faded from the limelight, but Trump remains a publicity hound.  Republicans made their biggest House gains in Florida, where the GOP tried to equate Joe Biden to the Castro brothers, Hugo Chavez, and Nicolas Maduro.

Except for the Trump cult, Republicans cannot rely upon any other votes in 2022 and 2024 -- yet. Can President Biden have problems? Sure. The economy can overheat, which leads to inflation and shortages. There's always the possibility of some international disaster that the opposition that Republicans can pin on him.

We are all ahead of ourselves, are we not?   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just pointed out that it won't be an 8 pt Election that gives D's FL, OH, IA and NC because unlike during Trump admin, the Ds performance matches that of a Prez Biden Approvals and he is 51/49, meaning D's win NH, PA, WI and Rs pick up GA. You told me yourself Southern D's got shellshocked in 2010/14 Midterms

The blue wall is resurrected in us winning 278 G and WI, PA, NH Senate, but Predict is predicting an R takeover of the H due to Reapportionment in TX and FL alone, they have the most EC votes and D's have 30 T dedicit and Biden proposed 6 T in new spending alone, whom is gonna pay for it

Let's see what Speaker Mccarthy finds, in Hunter Biden, he hasn't been investigated because we have Speaker Pelosi

Prez Harris would suit me find if Hunter Biden probe goes to impeachment, Fox news want Speaker MCCARTHY TO INVESTIGATE BIDEN. LOL THE ONLY INVESTATION HUNTER HAS HAD IS UKRAINE, I AM TALKING ABOUT AN INDEPENDENT COUNSEL NEEDS TO INVESTIGATE HUNTER

D's if they lose the H can get it back in a Harris Midterm, if D's lose the H Manchin will be blamed and he is DONE IN 2024

Pittsburgh has Stephanie Murphy and Beasley winning as of now, they have zee chance

[pbrower2a]

I do not predict that Democrats will hold the House. The same front groups (ALEC, National Chamber of Commerce, Club for Growth, FreedomWorks!, etc.) are still in existence. They are extremely polished at what they do, which is to smear anyone who fails to believe in pure plutocracy in which 95% of the people are obliged to suffer for 1% of the people. Meanwhile the Republican nominee does his plain-folks imitation while running against a harried Democrat, wins, and then shows his loyalty to the Economic Royalists behind the front groups.

This is what I see in the American Hard Right, at least on economics and politics.

To the Deutschlandlied:

Profit, profit, over everything!
Damn the public, give 'em the shaft!
We don't need excessive government,
all we need is plenty of graft!
Make the government a mere rubber stamp...

(the next line would probably be deleted or modified as excessive hyperbole. The rhyme with "stamp" is "camp", and that does not refer to getting some exposure to nature or laughable travesty in entertainment. 


I know how they work. Will they be as effective in 2022 as in 2010? Probably not. I am predicting that the midterm effect will be much less than usual due to the steady growth of Democratic voting due to younger voters voting heavier and more often, and being about 20% more D in elections. I see 2018 as a portent of that trend. In 2006 Democrats saw a two-stage wave that reversed in 2010 because the young voters of 2006 and 2008 didn't go out and vote in 2010.   If I am to make a bet it is on Democrats losing their narrow majority in the House. 

Some people seem to believe that "free enterprise" depends upon "enterprise" being free to do anything irrespective of the human cost. Such people also believe that he who owns the gold makes the rules. That has been the reality for over forty years. Regrettably they have the most important currency in politics, which is the money to lavish upon their chosen political stooges.

I have no delusion about America's tycoons and executives and their ability to find intellectual whores to fool people easily duped.
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

However, History dictates Rs do have an even chance to win the H, Rs have won the H 16/2o Elections 1995-2007 2011-2019.  The Senate maps look good for D's thru 2026 if they lose the H they can win it back in a Harris Midterm, Majorities are never pernament and Ds dont have a pernament hold on the H, just like Rs lost it.  Outparties win in midterms because Clinton, Bush W and Trump were all corrupted, it's the voters check. We need to find out really what happened with Hunter

If it does happen Speaker Mccarthy will be calling on a Special Counsel to investigate Hunter Biden, but we can have a divided Congress, look what happened in 2010,  2012, and 2018, the outparty won the H and Inparty won the Senate

We know Biden is compromised in indicted Trump due to Hunter Biden that's why Biden Justice Dept was concerned about a Laptop with Hunter probe instead of Trump

[Person Man]

TX is not going D anytime soon

Its either that or they gotta do better in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Forget about Florida and Iowa.  They just have to keep winning the latter two.

With the map shifting, albeit more slowly, they have to be doing better in more than that. Democrats just don't have the votes to be a major player if they are relying on Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

This dooming is hilarious.

I've been getting a lot of whiplash lately from folks saying it'll be "impossible" for the GOP to win future elections due to demographics, followed by folks saying it'll be "impossible" for Dems to win future elections without Texas.

Both can be true. It doesn't necessarily have to be Texas, but just holding the "freiwal" and not being  completely competitive up and down the ballot in other states is not useful to us.

Democrats can't win without Texas might be hyperbole but it is true that Democrats don't have enough votes to be a majority party if they can't win state chambers outside of the 22 seats they absolutely need to win in order to have a viable path to the Presidency. Democrats know this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said 0/10 R net gains in the H and a 51/49 Senate, Beasley and Stephanie Murphy aren't gonna win, the D performance is gonna match Prez Biden Approvals, Biden is at 51/49

But, watch out for that 47 percent rating if Stimulus of Unemployment checks or more stimulus aren't approved by September, Rs are complaining about a 30 T and 6 T in new spending

But a R 10 and D 51)49 Senate is probable and I want to see the Special Counsel investigate Hunter Biden if Speaker McCarthy asks for one, we need to get to the bottom of the UKRAINE probe just like Benghazi, but it's was politicized by R partisans and we need the Commission on Insurrectionists
Just because you are Hunter doesn't mean you can break the law even if he is a D.

Voters elect opposition in Midterms as a check on the other side, but in 2026 in a Harris Midterm D's can win back H

[Progressive Pessimist]

I just say that Rs are narrow favs to win the H, D's are favs to win S and D's are favs to Replicate the 278 D Gs

But, if we are in a Robust Economy by 2024/ D's can surely win the H back in 2024 with another D Sen Fav map, but it will create Heartburn for Biden, Speaker Mccarthy will investigate Hunter Biden and if impeachment proceeds, Harris will be our Nominee in 2024, spoil Bidens chances of 2T which will suit me fine

The Majority of any chamber is never pernament

"Pernament?" There's a new one!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think what's misleading is that D's will perform exactly how Biden is performing nationally not state by state and his approvals are only 51/49 and the Approvals of all the INCUMBENT Govs except for Kelly in KS which is an R pickup, due to Covid are 50 percent or better. That's why Ds will replicate the 278 blue wall Govs

With Molly Kelly in NH, D's are gonna blast Ads on behalf of Hassan, so D's can pickup that Gov, but in MA, Baker is Safe since there isn't a Senate race there, otherwise his state would be blasted with ads

TX, ISNOT PLUS BIDEN ITS NET NEGATIVE,, Biden. BUT I see why pbower2A makes it plus Biden because the H is riding on TX and FL Redistricting but the boarder crisis is totally out of control

Anyways the polls are inflated what happens in September when Rs and Manchin stops the 300 extra for Unemployment when we have a 30T deficit and Biden wants to add in new spending 6, Obama added 10T to defivit, it went from 20T to 30T

Congress can't stop Unemployment, but they will stop the stimulus checks in the Fall

54% Biden Approvals in FL, ha, DeSantis and Rubio are gonna win Pittsburgh Stephanie Murphy has o chamce

[OneJ]

University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll
(4/16-4/22; 1392 RVs)
Texas:

Biden:
44% Approve
46% Disapprove
11% No opinion

Crosstabs

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia: AJC/UGA, April 20-May 3, 844 RV

Approve 51
Disapprove 45

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 37

Gov. Brian Kemp: 45/49 (strongly 14/29)

[Sir Mohamed]

Georgia: AJC/UGA, April 20-May 3, 844 RV

Approve 51
Disapprove 45

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 37

Gov. Brian Kemp: 45/49 (strongly 14/29)

Kemp's numbers will go down once Mr. Trump holds rallies in GA to primary him out. Unlike govs like DeWine, he can't rely on some Dem-leaning voters to cross over ans save him.

[pbrower2a]

University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll
(4/16-4/22; 1392 RVs)
Texas:

Biden:
44% Approve
46% Disapprove
11% No opinion

Crosstabs

Georgia: AJC/UGA, April 20-May 3, 844 RV

Approve 51
Disapprove 45

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 37

Gov. Brian Kemp: 45/49 (strongly 14/29)

Kemp's numbers will go down once Mr. Trump holds rallies in GA to primary him out. Unlike govs like DeWine, he can't rely on some Dem-leaning voters to cross over and save him.

I thought that the early number for Biden's  approval was unrealistic.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge (high single digits) for Biden in favorability.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still 51/49, so D's replicating the 291 without GA in the Senate is probably the best they are gonna do winning WI, PA and NH and AZ and NV, unless Covid is Eradicated, we lost AL in 2020, GA isn't AL but it's the S

They aren't gonna have that big of a Gov night winning MI, WI And PA but losing KS and GA, Kemp is leading Abrams and Rs are gonna win KS

Party performance is bast in a midterm on Prez Approvals, Every INCUMBENT Gov have a 51% approval including DeSantis 51% and DeWine has a 60% due to Covid. Evers, Whitmer and Wolf and Pritzker have 51% as well

It's gonna be a Neutral D 2.0 PVI Election night, possible enough for a Speaker McCarthy Rs beating 5 D INCUMBENTS in TX and gerrymandering in TX and FL as well, but Ds can narrowly hold the H, that's why Ds wanted HR 1 passed to ensure a D H

Govs don't lose Reelection just like Prez if they are at 51% Approvals Govs will duplicate the blue wall

Brian Kemp has no opponent, Abrams has refused to announce, for Gov, if she doesn't announce soon Kemp will be entrenched, every R Gov in GA have been Reelected Perdue and Deal and last poll had Walker 47/45 over WARNOCK and Kemp leading Abrams

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 1-4, 1500 adults including 1187 RV

Adults:

Approve 48 (-3)
Disapprove 42 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+1)

RV:

Approve 49 (-3)
Disapprove 46 (+5)

Strongly approve 30 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+1)

This poll produces an occasional outlier.  Let's see what next week brings before jumping to any conclusions.

[pbrower2a]

It is easy to gerrymander out a member of the opposition Party in a reapportionment that results in fewer seats for the state. Republicans controlling the Ohio State legislature were able to combine a D district in greater Toledo with a similar district in Cleveland (the cities are a little over 100 miles apart), paring off people in both districts to dilute their votes in rural strong-R districts so that two incumbent Democrats ended up opposing each other for the same seat. Ordinarily it is far easier to reapportion a district in which an incumbent retires between several other districts, but Ohio Republicans knew what they were doing.

It is not so easy if a state gains Representatives, especially if the population growth is in the (then) minority Party. Pack-and-stack goes only so far before it gets overstretched to the point that the majority party of the time starts to have thin margins vulnerable to demographic change.

Some states have bipartisan commissions which make partisan efforts to hurt the opposition party more difficult.

[sting in the rafters]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 1-4, 1500 adults including 1187 RV

Adults:

Approve 48 (-3)
Disapprove 42 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+1)

RV:

Approve 49 (-3)
Disapprove 46 (+5)

Strongly approve 30 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+1)

This poll produces an occasional outlier.  Let's see what next week brings before jumping to any conclusions.

-11 with independents and only +17 with moderates would be causes for alarm if they're repeated next week/by other polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 1-4, 1500 adults including 1187 RV

Adults:

Approve 48 (-3)
Disapprove 42 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+1)

RV:

Approve 49 (-3)
Disapprove 46 (+5)

Strongly approve 30 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+1)

This poll produces an occasional outlier.  Let's see what next week brings before jumping to any conclusions.

An outlier, you think Biden is gonna have 60% Approvals and we are still stuck in a Pandemic

If we weren't in a Pandemic Biden would be at 60% like Obama was

Don't be surprised next yr if the H turns R next yr if we are stl stuck in COVID

[Bomster]

Biden's approval and disapproval ratings on 538 seem to be the reverse of Trump's. Trump's approval hovered between 41-43% and his disapproval hovered between 52-54%, yet he won 47% of the electorate in 2020. Biden only won 51%. So what are Biden and Trump's "true" approval ratings then?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Approvals are low, he still can hold Congress, especially the Senate with those numbers, but the H is gonna be a close call became se as pbower2A told me that in 2010/2014/ Pryor, Landrieu, Walsh and Begich In red states got wiped out

TX and FL are ground zero for Rs in Redistricting, we can have an R H and a DS and 278 Govs because Rs wiped us out again in.the H but McCarthy will net gain 0/10 seats not 15/30

That's why WARNOCK not Hassan can lose in a 51/49 Senate to Herschel Walker the Martial artists like Kayne West, while D's pickup WI and PA

I don't understand users, it's not gonna be an 8 pt Election in a Pandemic winning FL, NC and OH and IA and winning 278 states, Biden is only gonna get 291 like last time not 413 in 2024

What happened last time Biden got 306 and all the polls predicted FL and NC going D

IF COVID IS OVER IT WILL BE AN 8 PT ELECTION

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll
(4/16-4/22; 1392 RVs)
Texas:

Biden:
44% Approve
46% Disapprove
11% No opinion

Crosstabs

Tilt R Texas in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2024, Joaquin Castro might run against Cruz, in a Prez Election unlike a midterm, swing voters come out more, Partisanship is much more in a Midterm

In 2024 Covid is more likely to be over than in 2022 watch after the Midterms when we get closer to a Prez Election Politicians will work hard to Eradicate Covid, Rs don't have any intuition to help resolve Covid before McCarthy becomes Speaker and he can in a Neutral Environment he can win 10 seats and become Speaker even if D's win the SENATE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CRIST and Deming's are losing by 6 pts to DeSantis, FK isnot Biden plus state either

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 4-5, 1005 adults

Approve 55 (nc)
Disapprove 38 (nc)

Approval by party:

D 89 (-2)
R 22 (+3)
I 49 (-10) - last week's 59 was apparently an outlier or typo; it was 48 and 50 the two prior weeks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden ISNOT AT 55 PERCENT APPROVALS, DONT YOU SEE THAT FK POLL BIDEN LOST FL BY 3PTS ABD DESANTIS IS LEADING BY 6 PTS, DS are gonna fail to make up any new ground in red territory.

It's gonna be a Neutral Environment, the Rs are gonna net gain 0/10 seats in the H unless Covid is Eradicated and Biden isn't gonna get 6T in new spending and we have 30 T dedicits in a divided Senate, despite Warren whom also said that Manchin and Sinema were gonna eventually cave on Filibuster, which they haven't

[Progressive Pessimist]

University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll
(4/16-4/22; 1392 RVs)
Texas:

Biden:
44% Approve
46% Disapprove
11% No opinion

Crosstabs

Tilt R Texas in 2024.

I wish...