Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[President Johnson]

pbower2A always makes maps like these just like the media to keep voters interested, if it's the same old 306 FREIWAL it would be a boring Election but it will be a Resurrection of the 306 FREIWAL

Under the new map, it's 303 FREIWAL

[pbrower2a]

So far all of the elections beginning in 2000 look like variants of each other. The last big change that looks permanent is that Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia have gone D and stayed D (although after two elections, Nevada looks shaky as a D state). The second newest is in 2000, when Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, which generally went D in Presidential elections went R and have stayed that way (although Missouri was shaky R in 2008, it voted against a D nominee who won 365 electoral votes that year).

I do not consider two votes in a different direction from what one is accustomed (Florida. Iowa, and Ohio in 2016 and 2020) definitive indications of "permanent" change. That could be that Donald Trump successfully hit the right notes in his campaign there for those states.

The closest thing to a landslide was Obama in 2008.  I'm calling a pattern from 2000 or 2008, but not 2016. Bounce-backs happen.

I see no powerful indication of trouble for Democrats in 2024. Obviously their hold on the House majority is on "double-secret probation" due to its small size. Then again, winning Presidents usually have coat-tails leading to House wins, and the House result looks much like what one would have expected in the Trump win that he claims to have gotten but supposedly was cheated of. Republicans have plenty of weak holds in the Senate, especially in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  

Republicans have yet to realize how toxic former President Trump is. Maybe the polarization of American politics allows people to find themselves in narrow circles in which they know nobody willing to admit that they think differently on politics. If everyone that they know thinks that Democrats cheated their way to victory, then to them such must be so. Statistical samples (and polls are statistical samples) don't faze them.

Presidential elections of 2016 and 2020 have been anything but boring. That of 2012 was boring only because nobody could see Mitt Romney winning. 2008? It had its surprises. After all, Democrats just never win Colorado except in blowouts and just never won Indiana, North Carolina, or Virginia. 2000 and 2004 were close all the way until Election Day... and 2000 remained close after Election Day. So did 2016.  

What is boring is the landslide that everyone sees coming, as in FDR elections, 1956, 1964, 1972, or 1984. Collapses might have their fascination. We have no idea yet of the character of the 2024 Presidential election. International disasters and an economic meltdown cannot be ruled out. On the other side... Trump is toxic, and generational change generally favors Democrats. The incumbent President does much to shape the political perceptions. As the incumbent, Trump could benefit from last-minute pushes that suggested that even if one loathes him, Democrats remain a risk of abandoning economic policies that have been somewhat successful and share some common threads of ideology with shady regimes in Cuba and Venezuela.

The 2024 Presidential election is three and a half years away. Much can and will change before then. President Biden has been able to dodge having to do anything really unpopular to an inordinate degree. He follows a disastrous Presidency, so repudiating the follies of a dreadful predecessor is an easy and effective course of action  for now. His popularity rides generational trends, with voters under 40 about 20% more Democratic than Republican while voters over 55 are about 5% more Republican than Democratic.

 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whenever Covid improves to the point we are in a new normal it's probably gonna be a landslide but until then it's probably a neutral Environment for the forseeable future 2022/24

What I don't understand is Cook and Sabato goofy ratings they took SC out of solid R and won't budge of WI, Evers have a 52 percent Approvals enough to carry Nelson over the top it's a Tossup just like PA

[pbrower2a]

Almost everything looks inevitable once it happens, but until it does everything is in flux.

We rarely see a state take a 10% shift in the vote unless something unusual happens. That could be a perfect storm on the state's economics (consider Indiana in 2008: its RV industry got hit all at once by an economic meltdown that gutted demand for all big-ticket items, a credit crunch that made buying anything big on credit much more difficult and expensive, and a spike in oil prices that doubled the cost of driving an RV.  By 2012 all those problems were gone, so a critical industry in Indiana politics was no longer troubled. Indiana could then go back to its old ways of voting in 2012.

Appearance and disappearance of a Favorite Son can have its effects. Just look at this sequence of elections:

Georgia

1972  75-24 R
1976  67-33 D
1980  56-41 D
1984  60-39 R

Democrats did very well in Georgia because the presidential nominee was Jimmy Carter, a man well suited to Georgia's political culture. To say that George McGovern was a misfit in Georgia's political culture  is an understatement. McGovern was a poor match for any part of America. Mondale? Again a poor match. 

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So far all of the elections beginning in 2000 look like variants of each other. The last big change that looks permanent is that Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia have gone D and stayed D (although after two elections, Nevada looks shaky as a D state). The second newest is in 2000, when Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, which generally went D in Presidential elections went R and have stayed that way (although Missouri was shaky R in 2008, it voted against a D nominee who won 365 electoral votes that year).

I do not consider two votes in a different direction from what one is accustomed (Florida. Iowa, and Ohio in 2016 and 2020) definitive indications of "permanent" change. That could be that Donald Trump successfully hit the right notes in his campaign there for those states.

Not sure how you consider Trump's performance in Florida/Iowa/Ohio as outliers but not Nevada. Couldn't he have also hit the right notes there and it's the best a GOP candidate can hope for in Nevada (For the time being)?

[pbrower2a]

So far all of the elections beginning in 2000 look like variants of each other. The last big change that looks permanent is that Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia have gone D and stayed D (although after two elections, Nevada looks shaky as a D state). The second newest is in 2000, when Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, which generally went D in Presidential elections went R and have stayed that way (although Missouri was shaky R in 2008, it voted against a D nominee who won 365 electoral votes that year).

I do not consider two votes in a different direction from what one is accustomed (Florida. Iowa, and Ohio in 2016 and 2020) definitive indications of "permanent" change. That could be that Donald Trump successfully hit the right notes in his campaign there for those states.

Not sure how you call Nevada a "shaky D" state while waving off Florida/Iowa/Ohio as outliers. He didn't win, but who's to say he hit the best notes a GOP candidate can hit right now in Nevada?

Losing the state by less than 3% twice?

If COVID-19 is off the scene as a clear and present danger, and if the economy strengthens enougb (especially in the casino  and warehouse businesses*

To win states in red, a Republican needs a diplomatic disaster or an economic meltdown. To win states in blue, Biden must change the political culture so that people give up right-wing values. The second is much less likely than the first. 

We shall see how the absence of Trump, or a politically-crippled Trump,  changes the political scene.

*California has a significant inventory tax, and for medium-to-high-ticket items such as tires and appliances, many California retailers rely heavily upon Nevada warehouses to keep the inventory tax down as a cost of doing business. When California has good times, so does Nevada. Your lawn mower might be a day's shipment away in Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's probably a neutral cycle 52 seats in the Senate winning WI, NH, GA and WI and narrowly holding the H, unless Covid is Eradicated

The TX 06 told us the limits of a Blue wave

[pbrower2a]

In rather few times is Congress more popular than the President. I can think of 1931-1932, 1951-1952, 1972-1974, 2007-2008, and 2019-2020. In all of these cases I think of a President in trouble (Hoover, second term of Truman, Nixon-Ford in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal, Dubya as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan started to go bad and especially as the economy melted down, and Trump, who made so many faux pas that he made a sick joke of himself outside of his cult. The President can run against Congress if Congress is under the opposition party, but that does not always work. A President such as Obama might want to keep the Congress that he has, but well-heeled special interests may decide otherwise.

Usually a Presidential nominee who gets the clear majority of the popular vote does so in a wave year when first elected and put up some low-hanging fruit for the opposing Party to pick off easily. Republican s picked off some low-hanging fruit in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is not going D anytime soon

[Person Man]

TX is not going D anytime soon

Its either that or they gotta do better in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is not going D anytime soon

Its either that or they gotta do better in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

We must remember that Biden Approvals are the same exact Approvals he got on Election day, that means the 303 FREIWAL will be replicated as I told pbower2A many times before in the Senate we know what to expect 51/48 WI, PA, NH goes D and GA goes to a Runoff

Molly Kelly intends to run for NH Gov and we can have 3 D females Rep NH Hassan, SHAHEEN and Molly Kelly ❤️❤️❤️

OH, FL, IA and MO goes R

The H is based what happens on Redistricting, but Cook and Sabato took SC Gov out of Safe R and refuses to make WI Sen a Tossup, it's silliness

[Mr.Phips]

TX is not going D anytime soon

Its either that or they gotta do better in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Forget about Florida and Iowa.  They just have to keep winning the latter two.

[Person Man]

TX is not going D anytime soon

Its either that or they gotta do better in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Forget about Florida and Iowa.  They just have to keep winning the latter two.

With the map shifting, albeit more slowly, they have to be doing better in more than that. Democrats just don't have the votes to be a major player if they are relying on Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We now know pbower2A Approvalls are debunked TX and NC aren't voting R anytime soon



R plus 0/10 Seats in H net gain and a 51/49 Senate and we can have a divided Congress again since 2018

Just like we had in 2010 and Investigatons into Hunter Biden probe will happen and an impeachment proceedings can start leaving guess who as our nominee in 2024 Kamala Harris

I knew this was gonna happen it was easy to blame Trump to not Eradicate Covid but it's tough to do it as Prez


As I said before, I never seen a non rosey Approvals from pbower2A 2016 was obviously wrong, he predicted Hillary to win, and so was 2018 and 2020, with TX going D

All the Rs needed was a Neutral Environment to claim the H not a R favored and they have one

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

TX is not going D anytime soon

Its either that or they gotta do better in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Forget about Florida and Iowa.  They just have to keep winning the latter two.

With the map shifting, albeit more slowly, they have to be doing better in more than that. Democrats just don't have the votes to be a major player if they are relying on Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

This dooming is hilarious.

[Lief 🗽]

After the Texas results this weekend, it's clear that these polls are still way, way off. Not looking good.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After the Texas results this weekend, it's clear that these polls are still way, way off. Not looking good.

Um, no.

The Texas election was a one-off special with a fractured Democratic field featuring the widow of the incumbent, where the national party didn't invest much because the seat's going to be redrawn before the midterm anyway.  It has absolutely nothing to do with Biden's approval.  Last time I looked, Biden wasn't on the ballot in TX-06.

Considering the larger topic: are House Republicans favored in 2022?  Sure, because Democrats have only a narrow majority and there's usually a swing against the party in the White House.  Doesn't mean it's guaranteed to happen, but it's my starting assumption.  But it's not reasonable to solely draw that conclusion from the TX-06 special.  You might as well have concluded that the 2017 GA-06 special foretold Democratic doom in 2018, although IIRC some people here did exactly that.  And it's COMPLETELY unjustified to draw any conclusions about Biden's approvals from the TX-06 special.  I would hope people who are interested enough in elections to post here would be smarter than that.

The dooming here is just tiresome.  I hoped that some of you would have learned your lesson after 2020, but that was clearly wishful thinking.  But if you (collectively, not you specifically, Lief) absolutely must doom about the 2022 midterms, do it in the Congressional board where it's appropriate!  It's simply out of place in a Biden approval thread, and just lowers the signal-to-noise ratio here.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

TX is not going D anytime soon

Its either that or they gotta do better in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Forget about Florida and Iowa.  They just have to keep winning the latter two.

With the map shifting, albeit more slowly, they have to be doing better in more than that. Democrats just don't have the votes to be a major player if they are relying on Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

This dooming is hilarious.

I've been getting a lot of whiplash lately from folks saying it'll be "impossible" for the GOP to win future elections due to demographics, followed by folks saying it'll be "impossible" for Dems to win future elections without Texas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), April 28-30, 1300 adults including 1057 RV

Adults:

Approve 51 (-2)
Disapprove 32 (-1)

RV:

Approve 55 (-4)
Disapproval not shown

Among registered voters, investors approve of Biden's job performance, 63%-31%, a bit more narrowly than April's 67%-30% split.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has the Exact same Approvals on Election night a 51/49 Election is exactly how the Senate gonna play out but the H is solely dependant on Redistricting but Sabato is giving a negative input in the Ds chances

We can very well have a split Election RH and DS and the South going R and D's winning the Rust belt Govs

Rs have won 16/20 Elections and D's lost the H last time after 4 yrs, from 2007/2011

Biden or Harris can still win Reelection without the H like Obama did, since it takes 278 EC votes to win and D's don't need a single S state to win including Ga

As COOKIE DAMAGE OR SOLID, WHATECER HIS NAME IS, DS WITH MANCHIN VOTED DOWN DC Statehood for a Generation, but Ds can win the H back this decade

[President Johnson]

Biden has the Exact same Approvals on Election night a 51/49 Election is exactly how the Senate gonna play out but the H is solely dependant on Redistricting but Sabato is giving a negative input in the Ds chances

We can very well have a split Election RH and DS and the South going R and D's winning the Rust belt Govs

Rs have won 16/20 Elections and D's lost the H last time after 4 yrs, from 2007/2011

Biden or Harris can still win Reelection without the H like Obama did, since it takes 278 EC votes to win and D's don't need a single S state to win including Ga

Any so early polls are meaningless for election so far down the road.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just say that Rs are narrow favs to win the H, D's are favs to win S and D's are favs to Replicate the 278 D Gs

But, if we are in a Robust Economy by 2024/ D's can surely win the H back in 2024 with another D Sen Fav map, but it will create Heartburn for Biden, Speaker Mccarthy will investigate Hunter Biden and if impeachment proceeds, Harris will be our Nominee in 2024, spoil Bidens chances of 2T which will suit me fine

The Majority of any chamber is never pernament

[pbrower2a]

We now know pbower2A Approvalls are debunked TX and NC aren't voting R anytime soon

R plus 0/10 Seats in H net gain and a 51/49 Senate and we can have a divided Congress again since 2018

Just like we had in 2010 and Investigatons into Hunter Biden probe will happen and an impeachment proceedings can start leaving guess who as our nominee in 2024 Kamala Harris

I knew this was gonna happen it was easy to blame Trump to not Eradicate Covid but it's tough to do it as Prez


As I said before, I never seen a non rosey Approvals from pbower2A 2016 was obviously wrong, he predicted Hillary to win, and so was 2018 and 2020, with TX going D

All the Rs needed was a Neutral Environment to claim the H not a R favored and they have one

We do not know what the political climate of 2024 will be, A ten-point shift against Biden much like that against Carter allows Arizona, Georgia, Maine at-large, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to swing to the GOP. Such will take some combination of an economic meltdown and international disaster. Heck, Carter was popular at first, too. A ten-point shift against the GOP causes North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa to swing D. That is about the swing from Reagan 1980 to Reagan 1984.

States are too culturally polarized for now for really-large shifts of 15% or so. Oregon isn't going R and Indiana isn't going D without major changes in the overall attitudes by region. Republicans seemed to have put rural areas at risk for a while due to high tariffs but then opened the floodgates on farm subsidies. The rise of the Religious Right explains how Carter could win all but one (Virginia) of the former Confederate states in 1976 and Hillary Clinton lost all but one of them (Virginia) in 2016. If you can see a phenomenon like the Religious Right changing the political culture between now and 2024  as it did in the late 1970's in strongly-D states, then tell me.   

I was amazed to see Iowa and Ohio spiraling away from the Democrats while Texas seemed to drift D. This said, Texas, which used to be more rural, poorer, and less-educated than the USA as a whole, is becoming more of a microcosm of America... and that does not help Republicans. Meanwhile, Iowa and Ohio both have some shrinking medium-to-large cities while the rural population remains stable. As a Democrat I have some concerns about Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which might not quite have the same urban hemorrhaging as Iowa and Ohio. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will account for 44 electoral votes and Texas for 40... that would be a wash.   

Donald Trump had his strongest support in rural America, with few exceptions.

...It is easy to see 2010 as a likely analogue for 2022 because both are the first midterms following a Democratic win of the Presidency. Most obviously, the Hard Right still has huge backers among plutocrats who believe exactly the same thing -- that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it enriches and indulges those elites and that the power of those elites be enforced with whatever brutality is necessary. Donald Trump is the preposterous conclusion to that ideology, and preposterous conclusions to ideology have won at times in what seemed unlikely places. Those elites have the money with which to buy political support from reliable stooges. Second, new Presidents typically run on platforms of change even if such is little more than the repudiation of the predecessor. Obama repudiated Dubya (if selectively), and Trump repudiated Obama and Biden repudiated Trump completely.* Repudiating an above-average President for something other than style (JFK rejected Eisenhower's style and could get away with that) is a bad idea. Repudiating the faults of a failed President, as Biden does, is wise. The only question about Joe Biden is whether he will bring about some not-so-desirable characteristics. We just do not know that yet. 

Good reason exists for the Party not in the White House winning some seats in the midterm. No President fully gets his way; most make promises that get contradicted in meaning between what some voters thought they heard and what they mean in implementation. Unintended consequences are the norm and not the exception. Winning Presidents usually have gains in the House with them, and some weak politicians or politicians who don't quite fit the demography of their constituents. Say what you want about the Republican hack in my district (Tim Walberg), but he fits a district with an inordinate share of the sorts of "low-information voters" for whom Donald Trump professes love. In 2010 he defeated a one-term Obama acolyte. The low-hanging fruit that reach the House in wave elections or avoid losing as their districts stave off their eventual defeat in normal elections as the districts change  get picked off in later elections.

This time it may be Republicans who have the low-hanging fruit in the House. Add to this, some Republicans who have done outrageous stuff in support of Trump (mine tried to undermine the majority vote in Michigan against Trump) will be up for re-election in 2022 if they do not retire.  One big difference between 2022 and 2010 is that the GOP could distance itself quickly from Dubya but will bot be able to do so so effectively with Donald Trump. Demographic change that results from new voters being much more D than R and starting to vote in huge numbers also bodes ill for the GOP as it is now composed among elected officials. 

I see cause for 2022 being different from 2010. Patterns applied too rigidly can fail. Of course one thing else is different: Democrats do not have much margin for losing a House majority.       

*Dubya was poor; Obama was above-average, and Trump is certifiably putrid. The most recent ranking of the Presidents recognized in Wikipedia comes from 2018, so we do not have the whole story on Trump in any ranking ... yet... that gets the whole picture of the Trump administration.     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Difference between picking up seats in a Biden Midterm and picking up seats in Trump midterm is that Prez party it goes by their approvals, it's showing a 51/49 Approvals the Ds aren't gonna have a plus 8 Midterms it's gonna be more of a Neutral cycle.

We have the MO plus 15 R poll and the TX 06 that should tell you right there how South is Trending fast R.

2010/2014/ we didn't lose Northern sears we lost Southern seats

We are gonna probably have a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker beating WARNOCK and D's winning WI, PA and NH

D's can indeed lose the H in 2022/ based on TX and FL Redistricting but not lose Prez Election in 2024 based on WI, PA and MI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's can win the H back in 2026 with Harris, Speaker Mccarthy is gonna investigate Hunter Biden nulifyimg a D takeover of H in 2024, but Senate are golden for D's thru 2026, replicate the 278 EC map

We have a 30T deficit Biden wants more spending