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I honestly think it's a good deal of wishful thinking. Democrats were "guilty" of this in 2020, too, and maybe are to a degree this year by pointing towards 2022.

As for this year, the things are pretty shaky and inconsistent, so from either side you find certain indicators and data that apparently back your preferred narrative.

https://twitter.com/AshlarRob/status/1792537990616514738

I have met so many liberal parents who want to move to a whiter suburb "for the schools" because they don't want their kids to go to the perfectly good school in the rich, but more diverse suburb. Northerners look down on the South but they are, in fact, much more scared of racial diversity.

That went well.

I'm an atheist because all religions are cults

I feel like you think this was an intelligent or insightful take.  Unfortunately, it’s pretty low hanging fruit spam of the neck beard variety.

This was not spam. This is my real opinion. Wasn’t intending to be insightful. You seem to have no sympathy for people whose childhoods were ruined by being raised religious. So instead, you decide to personally attack me because I quit the denomination you are a part of (probably because you see me as a traitor)

I, personally, hold no ill will towards you nor do I hold any ill will against Torie. I sympathize that religion was used as a form of abuse towards you. Some of us just think that pithy and derogatory comments ("religions are cults," "religious people are mentally ill," "atheists are incel neckbeards," "atheists hate God," etc.) are better reserved for other places.

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.

If he wins the popular vote, certainly won't be by six. Maybe one or one and a half. Not even Dubya could edge out a three point win in 2004.

Probably how Biden is doing in the KY/IN suburbs and if it's holding up to 2020, better or worse, etc

If Virginia goes to the wire or takes a long time to be called.  That's how I knew the GOP was going to have a good night in 2014.

If he were to win in 2024 and term limits only applied to consecutive terms, any of the potential Democratic candidates like Whitmer, Moore, Warnock or Beshear would clobber him in the landslide we thought 2020 would be.

You forgot Vance, who is right behind Scott and Burgum in the betting odds. I expect it will be one of those three.