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I'll be called a hack but Pinson only winning by 10 is a good result IMO for Barrow/Dems.

Nothing was spent on this race - Barrow barely spent over $1M. People say they got mailers for Pinson but nothing from Barrow. Yes, Barrow pushed abortion rights, but it seems that only the most tuned in folks actually saw that. Almost everyone else was either swayed by name rec (Barrows old district) or incumbency on the ballot, with an incumbent who doesn't seem to have any scandals.

The fact that Barrow was able to still get 45% of the vote despite all of that actually tells me that his message was able to break through to some folks. I imagine 80% of voters did not know the details of this race or who was who, and just went with incumbent. But the fact that Barrow still got through to 45% of voters while spending $1M against a normal incumbent in a nonpartisan race is not bad at all imo.

yes you are a hack, how can you call it a good result for a state that is clearly trending left and losing it by 10?

[DONALD JOHN TRUMP.]

Italians and Hispanics love

DONALD JOHN TRUMP. And it isn't even close.

Thank you Bronx!

It's close to where I believe the race stands at this point. However, Qpac hasn't the best reputation.

I find they’ve either been Biden’s best or worst poll this cycle. Rare to get a “normal” result like this from them.

I've already totally written him off.

[So you truly have to appeal to real solutions for economic issues like union support, taxation rates, and cost of living]

Las Vegas is just such a wonderfully unique place because it forces our politicians to be much more thoughtful about what really matters to people and how to message those concerns. I get the sense that Vegas voters don't really care much for cultural hot-button issues in the same way they might motivate the base in other states. So you truly have to appeal to real solutions for economic issues like union support, taxation rates, and cost of living. This is how Obama won in a landslide, and part of what makes the Harry Reid machine work. Last year when Cortez Masto won against the odds, she insisted on messaging about the economy and abortion, and voters were smart enough to make the distinction between the policies.

As to the main question - Las Vegas is always going to be unique as long as it is a state that operates with a tourism based economy. Only Hawaii has a similar economic base, but it has the odd distinction of having an unusually large number of liberal retirees and other qualities that have kept it fairly left leaning (although one of the most "conservative" blue states).

The bolded part might have to do with why all 3 Vegas-area House Dems won by relatively comfortable margins last November, at least relative to online/pundit expectations.

Cut

Interesting piece - I’ll give a more thorough analysis on it when I have time but one thing I will say is I think Nevada’s growing Asian population is really under discussed.

I feel like Brown is finally running out of luck. Even if Biden gets reelected and doesn't get crushed in Ohio (ergo, just small shifts between 2020 and 2024). As of today, I'd say Moreno wins by three or four points. Brown still has a chance though.

Uncategorized. It's like asking where "apolitical" is on the ideological scale.

Would you say the same about theism?  Because I would think if theism is considered ideological in any way, atheism has to be, as well.  FTR, I would probably say neither are inherently ideological in nature, though they probably predispose people toward certain ideologies for cultural issues.

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Okay this surprised me, I haven't been paying the closet attention recently and I assumed we were still looking at the end of the year?

Don’t beat yourself up about it, from the reactions in SW1 today, basically everyone else did too…

Yeah I now see from the reactions that this was another puzzling out of left field decision from Sunak.

Though hey I'm pretty happy about it, summer election lets go!