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He's already gonna win FL

This, and honestly NC isn't gonna flip this year, either (if it is flipping then Biden's locked in for victory anyway).

But Trump needs to focus on the Midwest Trio, and arguably focus more on AZ than GA. I get the feeling that there are persuadable voters (Republicans, maybe, who didn't vote for Trump in 2020 but aren't fans of Biden) lurking in the Maricopa County suburbs, while GA is more polarized.

Has anyone contacted the Texas SOS office about this? 

Obviously complicated but IMO:

-Canada: the extreme cultural similarity between Anglo Canada and the U.S. is obvious, and of course the Liberals are very Democrat-esque. Also two of the countries with the strongest climate denier movements.
-Brazil: For the reasons everyone is articulating ofc. History of racial polarization, the right is hostile to democracy, etc. etc.
-France: This is a less informed take, but both have kind of weird legacies of early revolutions and a tendency towards culture war politics.
-South Africa: Long legacy of residential segregation and rigidly drawn racial boundaries. A fairly recent transition to democracy (this is moreso a point of comparison to the Southern U.S.).

they don't know if they are supposed to be mad that colleges don't allow due process when punishing students.  Most of them don't care when it's just men (often minority men and occasionally a lesbian, but they can overlook that) getting screwed by such things.  We'll have to wait until their handlers tell them which way to think on this issue.  My guess is that it's too confusing and they will mostly ignore it.

The left doesn't believe that certain types of "criminals" (and that's in quotes because frequently these guys aren't actually accused of breaking the law) should not be entitled to a fair trial. Sexual misconduct is one, obviously. At the height of the MeToo moral panic you could get fired simply for suggesting that accused men should get a real trial before having their lives ruined. The other big one is any kind of allegation of bigotry, which is the issue here.

I'm opposed to this, obviously, but I find it borderline impossible to feel bad for people who are just now realizing that this is a problem because it's suddenly affecting people they care about.

Edison Research has Twitter losing nearly a third of its American users between Jan 2023 and Jan 2024 (mostly in the late summer when the Twitter to X name change happened...hypothesis is a number of the more casual users literally didn't recognize the X app on their phone).

The pattern seems to be that the more casual users are drifting away while more hardcore posters continue to post steadily but with fewer and fewer people hearing what they're saying. Generally less impactful vs its heyday.

Slowly but surely a number of people who are big account holders with 500k followers will realize that only 300k of those are people who ever actually use Twitter anymore and their microphone is way weaker than they think it is.

Where are people who have left X going?

Biden will definitely win some of these states, but at the current time, strictly speaking I'd only rate MN as "at least Lean D" (it's Likely D, and tbh, closer to Safe than Lean in terms of outcome).

As of now I’d give him MN, WI, MI, PA and AZ

I definitely still think that GA will vote to the left of AZ, so if AZ is on this list, GA should be too.

Otherwise (honestly this is more of a gut feeling than anything else), I'm guessing the map might be, like, all of Biden's 2020 states minus WI, maybe NV and possibly AZ.

Well, New Zealand would have been the objectively correct answer (of the options given, anyway) until about forty years ago, and many stereotypes have not really caught up.

Yeah, ik this is statistically insignificant, ofc, but I still feel like it's something more people would have caught - for me it stood out immediately given that it was literally a speck of orange in a sea of blue. Again, it's not something people care about, but it's not like a hidden needle in a haystack - this county sticks out like a sore thumb on the map, especially given it's one of those random square counties in the middle of nowhere.

I honestly figured it's just one of those counties where there are like a dozen odd voters and it just had like, idk, some people come in from out of county or something. But yeah, given what Kwabbit said, it's pretty clearly just a wrong result.

Pretty embarrassing if you ask me, just because the one Haley victory in the entire state is the result of an error. Embarrassing for both Haley and the TXGOP/SOS.

Biden will definitely win some of these states, but at the current time, strictly speaking I'd only rate MN as "at least Lean D" (it's Likely D, and tbh, closer to Safe than Lean in terms of outcome).

As of now I’d give him MN, WI, MI, PA and AZ

Speaking of which, does anyone have any information on how Cate Blanchett feels about Morfydd Clark playing her character?  We know Morfydd (who was only 11 or 12 when the original LOTR trilogy came out) looks upon Cate much like we do -as a fan looking upon a distant star.  I think she mentioned she felt (and I think still feels) too intimidated and starstruck to talk to Cate directly.  

But how about on the other end -what does Cate think about Morfydd's performance as Galadriel?  And if she were directing the Rings of Power from the start, would she have selected her?