GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

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Realistically, Doug Collins is the presumptive nominee.

He can somewhat unite the Trump base and the moderate Atlanta suburbanites.

But I still think Warnock would be favored.

Feels like only 5 months ago that folks felt it was imperative that Kelly Loeffler defeat "right-wing loon" Doug Collins cause she'd be the best candidate to coalesce moderate suburbanites with the Trump base.

If the GA GOP feels that Collins is their last best hope, they're beyond repair for the next decade.

And if they feel Herschel Walker is their new standard-bearer, I think the party knows the writing on the wall.

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What do you guys think it would say about the Georgia trends if Warnock just barely lost?

I think it would say that there was just enough of an out of party bump to pull an R ahead, but that it would likely be the last GOP victory for a while and the state would still be clearly trending Democratic in the future.

Folks were saying that back in October when it appeared that Georgia could go for Biden but it was just "not there yet".

And then they were saying that back in December when a Georgia runoff meant that Democrats had a 1% chance of winning 1 statewide seat (Let alone 2)

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In a fair election I think Warnock wins this easily, but I'm concerned that GA's voter suppression could disrupt that.

It begins! 

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I get its a political forum, but its weird how folks place such hyper-inflated significance on these debates

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Apparently, a lot of folks in this thread can't get through tonight without their needle

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Feels like only 5-6 pages and 30 minutes ago that folks were all glum about this not being a 5+ point blowout for Warnock

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Felt like only 5-6 pages and 30 minutes ago that folks were all glum about this not being a 5+ point blowout for Warnock

It wouldn't be Atlas if we didn't drastically overreact to every slight little change.

Especially when the overreaction is based on a couple rural counties that we all knew was gonna vote just like last month and ended up doing just that.

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Not even 5 minutes since the needle broke and folks are already having the shakes

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Apparently Washington has flipped to Dems?

Yeah but Walker has taken the lead even though there's next to nothing counted in Metro Atlanta and Warnock will easily take the lead after that.

I'm freaking out...

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5 pages ago: "Metro Atlanta hasn't even come in yet. Nice knowing ya, Walker"

3 pages ago: "Still nothing out of Metro Atlanta. MSNBC sound like they're trying hard not to call it already"

NYT needle breaks and still little out of Metro Atlanta

"I'm freaking out. Walker has taken the lead..."

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This a forum full of election nerds, so I can’t be the only one who ignores the “needle”/other professional pollsters and just does feverish back-of-napkin data crunching to figure out the likely result, right?  The needle’s had so many problems, I don’t know why any of yall would melt down over it.  I am confusion.

Folks are lazy. They just want to point to a simple tweet or needle for reassurance.

It's like how you can't just post an update or detailed analysis without folks being all "Stop explaining and just tell me if I should freak out"

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So the needle is just broken and not gonna be back up?

Honestly, it's for the best

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The fact that this is the best Walker can do when the overwhelming majority of what's been counted is out of the reddest, most redneck counties in Georgia should embarrass every GOP operative in the state.

Yet folks are still gonna be upset over Warnock not winning by more

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I don't care for Wasserman at all, but I am somewhat amused that despite all the detailed analysis and updates about how things aren't looking bad at all and how folks need to stop freaking out, the moment he sends 'that tweet', the dooming/glooming instantly ends and the fireworks/celebrating/memeing begins

Again, like the needle, folks just want a simple sign for reassurance.

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On MSNBC just heard that Fulton will dump all of their remaining EV's at the top of the hour and finalize counting sometime around 1:00 AM to 2:00 EM Eastern Time...

The top of the hour should be enough for me to break out the bourbon.

Already sipping my Canadian Whiskey and my wife her Tito's Vodka....

All these election threads have shown how much more sophisticated drinkers Atlas users are than me.

Not to mention, wealthier than me.

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"Atlanta is the cultural leader of the United States." - Rachel Maddow

Um... I mean it's a great city and all but New York still exists among other things.

MSNBC has come a long way from November 2020 when Biden took the lead in Georgia and they were all "That's neat but all we care about right now is Pennsylvania"

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Herschel Walker's own campaign is telling him it's over, per MSNBC.

What's the likelihood he goes back out on the campaign trail tomorrow, genuinely not having comprehended a word they said?

Considering it's Herschel Walker? I wouldn't rule it out.

Herschel Walker's own campaign is telling him it's over, per MSNBC.

What's the likelihood he goes back out on the campaign trail tomorrow, genuinely not having comprehended a word they said?

They'll probably just drive him home and he'll forget the entire election even happened by the morning, including the fact he was a candidate.

Not gonna lie. As much as I don't like Herschel Walker, stuff like this is why I'm glad the race is over after tonight

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He sounds very relaxed and, surprisingly, a little more coherent than he usually does. Seems relieved he lost.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1600340641602469888?s=20&t=Ci9BqdtCZJRti2...

Doesn't surprise me in the least, honestly. Speaking honestly and sympathetically for a moment, and putting aside the fact that I think the mentally well Herschel Walker of old was a disgusting person and the mentally unwell Herschel Walker of the present is an awful bigot, mental stress is physically painful even for those of us with our faculties all together, so I can only imagine it was even worse for Walker, being actively in cognitive decline while enduring the campaign trail and the nonstop public spotlight that comes with it. I wouldn't inflict what he was forced to go through this year on my worst enemy, and I wish him comfort and peace in the rest of his days. It's over now, and shame on anyone who ever tries to exploit him again.

You said it much better than I could.

I find the guy pretty reprehensible and would never vote for him for anything. But perhaps due to my interests in football and professional wrestling, both coming with their own dark histories of CTE and mental illness, I was starting to feel sympathetic and a little disgusted by the blasé way folks would dogpile on his mental state. Calling him insane, moronic, idiotic, mentally deranged, etc.

The guy clearly needs help and I hope he now finds himself with enough space to get that peace of mind.

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He sounds very relaxed and, surprisingly, a little more coherent than he usually does. Seems relieved he lost.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1600340641602469888?s=20&t=Ci9BqdtCZJRti2...

Doesn't surprise me in the least, honestly. Speaking honestly and sympathetically for a moment, and putting aside the fact that I think the mentally well Herschel Walker of old was a disgusting person and the mentally unwell Herschel Walker of the present is an awful bigot, mental stress is physically painful even for those of us with our faculties all together, so I can only imagine it was even worse for Walker, being actively in cognitive decline while enduring the campaign trail and the nonstop public spotlight that comes with it. I wouldn't inflict what he was forced to go through this year on my worst enemy, and I wish him comfort and peace in the rest of his days. It's over now, and shame on anyone who ever tries to exploit him again.

You said it much better than I could.

I find the guy pretty reprehensible and would never vote for him for anything. But perhaps due to my interests in football and professional wrestling, both coming with their own dark histories of CTE and mental illness, I was starting to feel sympathetic and a little disgusted by the blasé way folks would dogpile on his mental state. Calling him insane, moronic, idiotic, mentally deranged, etc.

The guy clearly needs help and I hope he now finds himself with enough space to get that peace of mind.

Yeah, I myself cracked a few jokes that I sort of regret tonight. I mean, I'm a wrestling fan; I know all about Chris Benoit, and I know all about what probably caused him to do what he did. Objectively, Walker belongs nowhere near political office, but that's as much a matter of his own wellbeing as the country's.

He's not a good person and he doesn't believe good things, but his affliction is no joke, and I'm sorry election anxiety prompted me to turn it into one.

I obviously don't want to conflate the two men and their conditions. I see John Fetterman the complete opposite way I do Herschel Walker. But I was starting to grow as gross and uncomfortable with Democrats attacking Walker's mental capacities as I was when Republicans made Fetterman's stroke a top campaign issue.

Elections has sadly made savage tribalists of us all, including myself at times. And I put a lot of that on Trump, who I think deserves most of the hate Walker is getting for exposing him to such a prominent platform to begin with.

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He only won by 2, that's less than most were predicting, hmm

"Obviously, this race was gonna settle around a 51 - 49 margin for Warnock. Not the 52 - 48 margin like the extreme optimists were predicting"

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Going from David Letterman to the most milquetoast version of Colbert....sad

This looks exactly like the kind of thing David Letterman would run in the last 5-10 years of hosting