GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Anyone else genuinely gonna miss Walker? Maybe he'll start a podcast so we can hear his pearls of wisdom daily.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Reminder that even as Warnock holds this 4%+ lead, DeKalb is only 5% in.

Yep, we haven't even had the charge of the Rohirrim yet, and the needle is giving Warnock an 80% chance anyway!

It all comes down to the Battle of Helms Deep.

[TheReckoning]

Is anyone actually surprised at this result? LOL

Dems gloating about this would be like Republicans gloating over DeSantis winning in Florida lmao

I encourage you to go back through the overall results thread and look at how many blue avatars gloated about DeSantis.

Gloating about the margin, sure. Not the results in general. If Warnock pulls off a substantial win tonight, that will be cause for celebration among Democrats. But we will have to wait and see if that is what will happen.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

We've reached the area where the Needle is predicting a higher margin for Warnock than what's currently in. Which is reasonable given how much remains in DeKalb, Cobb, Fulton, Clayton...

[Brittain33]

Anyone else genuinely gonna miss Walker? Maybe he'll start a podcast so we can hear his pearls of wisdom daily.

Walker could be his own true crime podcast.

[Alben Barkley]

[South Dakota Democrat]

Is anyone actually surprised at this result? LOL

Dems gloating about this would be like Republicans gloating over DeSantis winning in Florida lmao

No.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

We've reached the area where the Needle is predicting a higher margin for Warnock than what's currently in. Which is reasonable given how much remains in DeKalb, Cobb, Fulton, Clayton...

nvm it just shifted. But I think that where the needle was, was perfectly reasonable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What dropped the needle to Warnock+1.2?

[Ferguson97]

Anyone else genuinely gonna miss Walker? Maybe he'll start a podcast so we can hear his pearls of wisdom daily.

You could always watch the Tracy Jordan scenes from 30 Rock, though even Jordan seems to be a little too high-brow for Walker.

[ꙮ]

Like ableism in Pennsylvania, nominating the dumbest man in America was not, it turns out, a winning campaign strategy.

What about nominating a fascist-adjacent Thielite in Arizona?

I don't even think that it was the politics itself that made people dislike him. He underperformed Lake who said things just as crazy. Blake Masters looks like he hunts people for sport, and I think that was off-putting to voters. He simply gives off bad vibes.

[LimoLiberal]

Needle just jumped toward Walker - went from 79% Warnock to 66%.

[Horus]

Needle just went from Warnock 78 to Warnock 66. Can't tell why.

[Alben Barkley]

Brace yourselves, there is a slight possibility that Warnock will "take the lead" before DeKalb reports anything. Keep an eye on PredictIt to see if the MAGAts do one last Pickett's Charge, and don't hesitate to pick them off if they do. Show no mercy!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Feels like only 5-6 pages and 30 minutes ago that folks were all glum about this not being a 5+ point blowout for Warnock

[ProgressiveModerate]

We've reached the area where the Needle is predicting a higher margin for Warnock than what's currently in. Which is reasonable given how much remains in DeKalb, Cobb, Fulton, Clayton...

Georgia tends to have a weird counting bias these days.

Firstly it's extremely D because of all the mail ins

Then it becomes R favorable due to rural counties generally finishing quicker than large metro Atlanta counties.

Then the higher population metro Atlanta counties and smaller metro counties come in and pad D margins.

[ProudModerate2]

Oh oh.
Things are starting to swing to Walker.
Even the Times needle is starting to change.

[Ferguson97]

Felt like only 5-6 pages and 30 minutes ago that folks were all glum about this not being a 5+ point blowout for Warnock

It wouldn't be Atlas if we didn't drastically overreact to every slight little change.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know what dropped that caused the needle to swing towards Walker?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Oh oh.
Things are starting to swing to Walker.
Even the Times needle is starting to change.

I expect DeKalb's final margin to be around 85-15, maybe higher.  not personally sure what it was in the first round. That'd be a net of around 190k for Warnock from where he stands now.

[Alben Barkley]

This is the red mirage, easily predictable. This is literally exactly what happened in November. Warnock had a big early lead, then Walker overtook him, then Atlanta metro finished reporting and Warnock won.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Felt like only 5-6 pages and 30 minutes ago that folks were all glum about this not being a 5+ point blowout for Warnock

It wouldn't be Atlas if we didn't drastically overreact to every slight little change.

Especially when the overreaction is based on a couple rural counties that we all knew was gonna vote just like last month and ended up doing just that.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone know what dropped that caused the needle to swing towards Walker?

Maybe a reaction to Gordon County?

[Zache]

Does anyone know what dropped that caused the needle to swing towards Walker?

This maybe?
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600302528595300352

[Alben Barkley]

Warnock up in Rockdale County over November and Walker down with all the vote in.