GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Skill and Chance]

Not sure what to make of this.  The final result is going to be almost Warnock +3.  Not a blowout, but not particularly close, either.  A lot like the 2012 presidential election.  Also not sure if this qualifies as a polling error or not.  The consensus here did shift a bit too much toward "OMG Warnock by double digits!"  but we got the winner right, and it's not like it was Warnock +0.5 either.

[YE]

The Polls overestimated Democratic Support once again in this Runoff just like in 2021.

Warnock will win maybe 51.2 % to 48.8 % so a 2.4 Percentage Point Win.

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

Ossoff is probably the luckiest Man in the Senate. The Reason: Warnock dragged him over the line in 2021.

How are the Republicans going to win Georgia in 4 years when the start will probably be another 2-3% more black at the very least?

[YE]

Not sure what to make of this.  The final result is going to be almost Warnock +3.  Not a blowout, but not particularly close, either.  A lot like the 2012 presidential election.  Also not sure if this qualifies as a polling error or not.  The consensus here did shift a bit too much toward "OMG Warnock by double digits!"  but we got the winner right, and it's not like it was Warnock +0.5 either.

+3 might as well by a landslide in such a polarized and inelastic state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1600344837705764864

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/CarlGND1/status/1600365078876155904

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/CarlGND1/status/1600365078876155904

Joe Biden is proving to be the Samwise Gamgee of our reality. A most unexpected hero, but perhaps the most important of all.

And no, I don't care how cringe that sounds. I'm happy right now, leave me the hell alone.

[Adam Griffin]

Not sure what to make of this.  The final result is going to be almost Warnock +3.  Not a blowout, but not particularly close, either.  A lot like the 2012 presidential election.  Also not sure if this qualifies as a polling error or not.  The consensus here did shift a bit too much toward "OMG Warnock by double digits!"  but we got the winner right, and it's not like it was Warnock +0.5 either.

[Real] North Georgia braved the rain and showed up this time, apparently. Even so, this probably only reduced Warnock's statewide margin by 0.3-0.4 points:

(Fun fact: that dark purple upside-down triangle-looking county in the south sort of between Augusta and Macon is Johnson County: the place where Walker was born and raised)

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure what to make of this.  The final result is going to be almost Warnock +3.  Not a blowout, but not particularly close, either.  A lot like the 2012 presidential election.  Also not sure if this qualifies as a polling error or not.  The consensus here did shift a bit too much toward "OMG Warnock by double digits!"  but we got the winner right, and it's not like it was Warnock +0.5 either.

[Real] North Georgia braved the rain and showed up this time, apparently. Even so, this probably only reduced Warnock's statewide margin by 0.3-0.4 points:

(Fun fact: that dark purple upside-down triangle-looking county in the south sort of between Augusta and Macon is Johnson County: the place where Walker was born and raised)

Average Walker voter:

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1600344837705764864

Brandywine???

That sounds Lord of the Rings as f--k.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

His name is Herschel Junior Walker? Not Herschel Walker Jr.? Huh.

https://twitter.com/CarlGND1/status/1600365078876155904

Joe Biden is proving to be the Samwise Gamgee of our reality. A most unexpected hero, but perhaps the most important of all.

And no, I don't care how cringe that sounds. I'm happy right now, leave me the hell alone.

Not sure I agree, but recommending for the unabashed Tolkien fandom.

Biden's parish church is called St. Joseph on the Brandywine, incidentally.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Not sure what to make of this.  The final result is going to be almost Warnock +3.  Not a blowout, but not particularly close, either.  A lot like the 2012 presidential election.  Also not sure if this qualifies as a polling error or not.  The consensus here did shift a bit too much toward "OMG Warnock by double digits!"  but we got the winner right, and it's not like it was Warnock +0.5 either.

[Real] North Georgia braved the rain and showed up this time, apparently. Even so, this probably only reduced Warnock's statewide margin by 0.3-0.4 points:

(Fun fact: that dark purple upside-down triangle-looking county in the south sort of between Augusta and Macon is Johnson County: the place where Walker was born and raised)

Is it possible that Warnock ad with the people from Herschel's home town changed a lot of votes there?

[Stockdale for Veep]

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Just listened to Warnock's victory speech. He's serious presidential material.

[ExSky]

Forsyth might be 50/50 within 3-4 potus cycles. This ain’t 1987 Oprah’s Forsyth anymore.

[Crumpets]

This guy really needs to join Atlas.

https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1600350656736403456

[pantsaregood]

This guy really needs to join Atlas.

https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1600350656736403456

I mean, he's probably right. I wouldn't doubt that Herschel Walker is - at worst - top 10 (physically) strongest senate candidates in history.

[Storr]

This guy really needs to join Atlas.

https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1600350656736403456

If he means by physical strength alone, he's probably right. Say what you want about his mental fitness, Hershel Walker has always been a workout warrior.

[prag_prog]

Isakson won around 15-20% of Black vote in Georgia when he won Senate race in 2016

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

He sounds very relaxed and, surprisingly, a little more coherent than he usually does. Seems relieved he lost.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1600340641602469888?s=20&t=Ci9BqdtCZJRti2...

Doesn't surprise me in the least, honestly. Speaking honestly and sympathetically for a moment, and putting aside the fact that I think the mentally well Herschel Walker of old was a disgusting person and the mentally unwell Herschel Walker of the present is an awful bigot, mental stress is physically painful even for those of us with our faculties all together, so I can only imagine it was even worse for Walker, being actively in cognitive decline while enduring the campaign trail and the nonstop public spotlight that comes with it. I wouldn't inflict what he was forced to go through this year on my worst enemy, and I wish him comfort and peace in the rest of his days. It's over now, and shame on anyone who ever tries to exploit him again.

You said it much better than I could.

I find the guy pretty reprehensible and would never vote for him for anything. But perhaps due to my interests in football and professional wrestling, both coming with their own dark histories of CTE and mental illness, I was starting to feel sympathetic and a little disgusted by the blasé way folks would dogpile on his mental state. Calling him insane, moronic, idiotic, mentally deranged, etc.

The guy clearly needs help and I hope he now finds himself with enough space to get that peace of mind.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1600347885291413504


I love Biden.

Fitting, since Dark Brandon was the first to turn Georgia to the dark side.

Technically one might be able to make the argument that this honor belongs to Jimmy Carter first, toss in a Bill Clinton with a Perot asterisk sign, but def Obama '08 certainly gets props for cracking the "Peach State".

Granted Biden gets some cred for helping to snipe off a couple Senate seats in 2020, but within the Trump era "Candidate quality mattered", so ultimately credit is due to the voters from the great state of Georgia for rejecting the lies and the BS about "stolen elections", and instead voted for the "Rev" and rejected the lies of the past, while meanwhile voting for the PUB GOV Kemp in '22 GE, who refused himself to be bulldozed by the "Trump Train", as well as the "Party Purges".

Still this election was Warnock and Walkers to win or lose, and both Biden and Trump stayed out of the run-off fray, although I do believe both Barrack and Michelle might have done a cameo in GA to support Warnock....

[Dani Rose]

He sounds very relaxed and, surprisingly, a little more coherent than he usually does. Seems relieved he lost.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1600340641602469888?s=20&t=Ci9BqdtCZJRti2...

Doesn't surprise me in the least, honestly. Speaking honestly and sympathetically for a moment, and putting aside the fact that I think the mentally well Herschel Walker of old was a disgusting person and the mentally unwell Herschel Walker of the present is an awful bigot, mental stress is physically painful even for those of us with our faculties all together, so I can only imagine it was even worse for Walker, being actively in cognitive decline while enduring the campaign trail and the nonstop public spotlight that comes with it. I wouldn't inflict what he was forced to go through this year on my worst enemy, and I wish him comfort and peace in the rest of his days. It's over now, and shame on anyone who ever tries to exploit him again.

You said it much better than I could.

I find the guy pretty reprehensible and would never vote for him for anything. But perhaps due to my interests in football and professional wrestling, both coming with their own dark histories of CTE and mental illness, I was starting to feel sympathetic and a little disgusted by the blasé way folks would dogpile on his mental state. Calling him insane, moronic, idiotic, mentally deranged, etc.

The guy clearly needs help and I hope he now finds himself with enough space to get that peace of mind.

Yeah, I myself cracked a few jokes that I sort of regret tonight. I mean, I'm a wrestling fan; I know all about Chris Benoit, and I know all about what probably caused him to do what he did. Objectively, Walker belongs nowhere near political office, but that's as much a matter of his own wellbeing as the country's.

He's not a good person and he doesn't believe good things, but his affliction is no joke, and I'm sorry election anxiety prompted me to turn it into one.

[Sir Mohamed]

RIP Walker, this is what happens when you nominate horrible and completely unqualified candidates.

51 seats at least gives us a fighting chance for the 2024 map.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

He sounds very relaxed and, surprisingly, a little more coherent than he usually does. Seems relieved he lost.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1600340641602469888?s=20&t=Ci9BqdtCZJRti2...

Doesn't surprise me in the least, honestly. Speaking honestly and sympathetically for a moment, and putting aside the fact that I think the mentally well Herschel Walker of old was a disgusting person and the mentally unwell Herschel Walker of the present is an awful bigot, mental stress is physically painful even for those of us with our faculties all together, so I can only imagine it was even worse for Walker, being actively in cognitive decline while enduring the campaign trail and the nonstop public spotlight that comes with it. I wouldn't inflict what he was forced to go through this year on my worst enemy, and I wish him comfort and peace in the rest of his days. It's over now, and shame on anyone who ever tries to exploit him again.

You said it much better than I could.

I find the guy pretty reprehensible and would never vote for him for anything. But perhaps due to my interests in football and professional wrestling, both coming with their own dark histories of CTE and mental illness, I was starting to feel sympathetic and a little disgusted by the blasé way folks would dogpile on his mental state. Calling him insane, moronic, idiotic, mentally deranged, etc.

The guy clearly needs help and I hope he now finds himself with enough space to get that peace of mind.

Yeah, I myself cracked a few jokes that I sort of regret tonight. I mean, I'm a wrestling fan; I know all about Chris Benoit, and I know all about what probably caused him to do what he did. Objectively, Walker belongs nowhere near political office, but that's as much a matter of his own wellbeing as the country's.

He's not a good person and he doesn't believe good things, but his affliction is no joke, and I'm sorry election anxiety prompted me to turn it into one.

I obviously don't want to conflate the two men and their conditions. I see John Fetterman the complete opposite way I do Herschel Walker. But I was starting to grow as gross and uncomfortable with Democrats attacking Walker's mental capacities as I was when Republicans made Fetterman's stroke a top campaign issue.

Elections has sadly made savage tribalists of us all, including myself at times. And I put a lot of that on Trump, who I think deserves most of the hate Walker is getting for exposing him to such a prominent platform to begin with.

[new_patomic]

Still puzzled where crappy Nate Cohn and his nonsense NEEDLE get the 2.9 Warnock Margin.

Credit where it's due, you were right.

It settled at an abysmal 2.8. Not 2.9.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

He only won by 2, that's less than most were predicting, hmm

"Obviously, this race was gonna settle around a 51 - 49 margin for Warnock. Not the 52 - 48 margin like the extreme optimists were predicting"