🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Hnv1]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

What is the Sonstige Party?

Other Parties, Sonstige or Andrer, i.e., all parties not passing 5% on the federal level

[Not Me, Us]

So the SPD is running away with this, huh? Hood for them, I guess, though I’d prefer a Green government. Laschet’s a goon, I’m glad he’s losing.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Next debate is on here in about 30 minutes: https://www.daserste.de/information/nachrichten-wetter/ard-sondersendung/sendung/das-triell-dreikampf-ums-kanzleramt-100.html

[President Johnson]

Laschet will certainly ramp up the attacks; the question is just whether he appears desperate and pathetic in doing so. Genosse Olaf will certainly remain calm and steady, which is what usually resonates with the German electorate.

Baerbock is probably out in the race for the chancellorship, but can be sure to end up as foreign minister and vice chancellor in any government with Green participation (minus vice chancellorship if they somehow end up behind the FDP).

[Astatine]

Laschet couldn't even answer the first question sufficiently, ough.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Studio literally crashes down as Annalena Baerbock speaks

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

it is actually so funny that Annalena is the one moderating between Scholz and Laschi

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Armin "Relateable Romney" Laschet: "If you can't afford an apartment, just build a house!"

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Recap of the debate:

Baerbock: content
Scholz: exists
Laschi: own goals


Is that about right?

[Astatine]

Winner of this debate: RTL/n-tv

[President Johnson]

Debate is finished. I don't think either candidate had a very clear win, nor did anyone had a severe error. Laschet was kinda hilarious on rents and apartment prices, but on other issues he had at least made his points.

I'm probably biased, but Scholz' closing statement was by far the strongest and most concrete what he wants to accomplish.

In the end, I doubt it changes that much; we just have to check in the next couple of polls whether the investigation into the FIU has any real impact.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Infratest Dimap poll (first half of the debate):

Winner:
Scholz 39%
Baerbock 25%
Laschet 24%

Likability:
Baerbock 37%
Scholz 35%
Laschet 18%

Competence:
Scholz 46%
Laschet 24%
Baerbock 19%

[President Johnson]

Infratest Dimap poll (first half of the debate):

Winner:
Scholz 39%
Baerbock 25%
Laschet 24%

Likability:
Baerbock 37%
Scholz 35%
Laschet 18%

Competence:
Scholz 46%
Laschet 24%
Baerbock 19%

Wow, that's good for Scholz if he's even leading when the FIU and CumEx stuff was discussed. If that keeps up, we may call him Teflon Olaf.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Recap of the debate:

Baerbock: content
Scholz: exists
Laschi: own goals


Is that about right?

I think Scholz did show more energy than in the first debate, especially when he put up a formidable defence against Laschet's attacks on CumEx, WireCard and the Finance Ministry raid.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll for ZDF (first half of the debate)

Winner:
Scholz: 34%
Baerbock: 26%
Laschet: 16%

The candidates did better than/worse than/as expected:
Laschet: 27%/15%/57%
Scholz: 28%/11%/59%
Baerbock: 44%/11%/43%

Most genuine:
Scholz: 31%
Baerbock: 30%
Laschet: 14%

Most likable:
Scholz: 36%
Baerbock: 29%
Laschet: 12%

Most prepared:
Scholz: 45%
Laschet: 16%
Baerbock: 13%

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Infratest Dimap poll (whole debate):

Winner:
Scholz: 41%
Laschet: 27%
Baerbock: 25%

Winner (among undecided voters):
Scholz: 36%
Laschet: 25%
Baerbock: 25%

Most likable:
Baerbock: 39%
Scholz: 34%
Laschet: 18%

Most competent:
Scholz: 49%
Laschet: 26%
Baerbock: 18%

Most genuine:
Scholz: 39%
Laschet: 26%
Baerbock: 26%

Most vigurous:
Baerbock: 41%
Scholz: 28%
Laschet: 25%


Preferred Chancellor (before/after the debate):
Scholz: 43%/43%
Laschet: 19%/24%
Baerbock: 13%/19%

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll (whole debate):

Winner:
Scholz: 32%
Baerbock: 26%
Laschet: 20%

The candidates did better than/worse than/as expected:
Laschet: 35%/12%/57%
Scholz: 27%/15%/58%
Baerbock: 53%/8%/43%

Most likable:
Baerbock: 39%
Scholz: 28%
Laschet: 14%

Most prepared:
Scholz: 40%
Laschet: 21%
Baerbock: 12%

Most genuine:
Scholz: 31%
Baerbock: 25%
Laschet: 22%

Preferred Chancellor (before/after the debate):
Scholz: 55%/46%
Laschet: 19%/28%
Baerbock: 19%/20%

[President Johnson]

Laschet has most likely stopped the bleeding in recent days, though there wasn't much room to fall anymore. Not convinced he's turned it around yet, which he absolutely needs. Maybe - and I'm still saying it with caution - people are just done with the CDU after that many years.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

hehe cumex

[Omega21]

Laschet has most likely stopped the bleeding in recent days, though there wasn't much room to fall anymore. Not convinced he's turned it around yet, which he absolutely needs. Maybe - and I'm still saying it with caution - people are just done with the CDU after that many years.

The people are not "done with the CDU".

They're done with the CDU that completely and utterly disregarded their electorate when choosing their leader, because "well that's how we always did it and the people behind closed doors voted for me", or "but polls don't mean anything!".

Well, soon enough, the backroom people will be the only ones voting for him.

But hey, at least the moderate FDP gains put a smile on my face, and I'd also be fine with an SPD Govt. if they can keep the Greens under control.

I get that the Planet is in deep sh*t, but the only things their policies will do is degrade Germany's living standard or force young people, who will already be strained by the crumbling population pyramid, to pay back the loans they'll be taking out.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

In the end, I doubt it changes that much; we just have to check in the next couple of polls whether the investigation into the FIU has any real impact.

Two takeaways concerning this issue: Laschet failed to make a convincing and coherent attack out of this and Scholz handled the accusation really well. He was able to use the defense to make a case for himself, and Laschet was visibly irritated by the passionate reaction of Scholz and the harsh tone he employed

By the way, what was clearly visible last night was that Laschet, for a man that has become really feisty in the last week, does not handle attacks brought up against him well at all. You were able to see that very early when Laschet had to defend his own stance towards the LINKE - really smart move by Baerbock because now, all of the sudden, Laschet was unable to stick to his script and had to defend himself on an issue on which he thought he had the upper hand.

Laschet improved after that, but that was the part of the debate which was really boring. Covid, digitalization and climate was really a re-run of what had already been said two weeks ago. I would have wished to have the candidates expand more on the issue of taxes and pensions. Laschet was decent in this section, but I think he would have struggled with more critical questions that would have come up if there had been more time.

By the way, I think the moderators gave off the impression of being really disorganized and uncoordinated. Maybritt Illner is a pro, but it was really irritating to see how much the moderators interrupted each other.

[Astatine]

On ARD, there is a debate of the lead candidates of the smaller Bundestag parties (Weidel/AfD, Lindner/FDP, Wissler/Linke, Dobrindt/CSU) right now.

[President Johnson]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

Note that the survey period could be characterized as the worst time for Scholz so far. That the SPD's numbers remained unchanged is a great relief for the SPD, even if we are talking about just one poll. Time is running out for Laschet. It's only 13 days until the election, and people are already voting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Traffic light is at 53.5% in that poll. Not good for Laschet.