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Looking forward to red avatars counting how many black people there are.

Imagine being this proud of your party's lack of support amongst minorities (of almost any kind).

It is plausible the tipping point state is more Republican relative to the NPV then in was in 2020. WI which was R+3.9 relative to the NPV and the tipping point state could easily trend Republican again this year and if GA and AZ stay the same relative to the NPV as they were in 2020, the tipping point state would become even more Republican.

I think people underestimate the likelihood of states like WI and PA trending Republican this year, back in 2020 the polls indicated they would not and Biden had special strength in relative terms among white voters in these states, they were wrong, both WI and PA trended Republican in 2020 despite Trump gaining heavily with Hispanics, no reason that won't happen this year. 

PA in particular has shifted Republican relative to the NPV 4 times in a row now, every election since 2004 its trended Republican, why would that trend stop this year.

I have a gut feeling Biden will win NC not GA in this yrs Eday

So who shall it be?

Looking forward to red avatars counting how many black people there are.

[Cambrian explosion/End Ediacarian]

The other largest mass extinction events being


Cambrian explosion/End Ediacarian The reason we speak of Cambrian explosion is because of the sudden rise of calcified remains, better protection which makes remains animals easier to preserve. The evolution of eye in first predators also appeared here. But there was a very weird Ediacarian fauna already present, most didn't make it past this border with a decline of 10 million years preceding this change, associated with an ice age (which also would've boosted oxygen levels). This was a biodiversification event following gradual decline, which made the oceans a tiny bit more modern-looking relative to the absolute weird Ediacarium which was a time of experimenting basically.

Late Ordovician second greatest of all time but species didn't make it onto land yet. Also seems to be relatively sudden over 2-3 stages, with a crisis followed by cooling and than warming, which maybe also suggests a external cause for this one (cosmic event).

Late Devonian extinctionS series of multiple extinctions event or very large timeframe of much higher background extinction rates, in multiple pulses, land wasn't impacted and first vertebrates exploring land also likely originated here.

Devonian was a time of massive changes, rapid rise and diversification of armored fish and jaws, also known as age of fish which saw increased stress on other species and also an evolutionary arms race. Towards the middle and end, there was a period of time, long-lasting lasting tens of millions of years with several pulses of heightened extinction, likely caused due to a combination of causes: volcanism and climate change.

And also the rise of plants on land, which would've messed up the atmospheres balance, increasing oxygen due to increased photosynthesis kicking off a cycle of rapid cooling, sea level falls, shallow seas drying up, general drying, warming, anoxia events multiple times over & over again.

This is also when the first fish (aside of arthropods which did it earlier) adapted to land establishing itself as amphibians. None of land life, incl. fauna seems to have been affected here

End Capitanian On itself a big one, one of the mass extinctions but often forgotten due to being a prelude to an even bigger one 13 million years later. Cause is likely volcanism in what is today known as Southern China. This is also peak supercontinent phase which would've made living generally more extreme, and also seems to have affected the way volcanics work by reducing plate tectonics and increasing hotspot-related/mantleplume volcanist events.

Life never really recovered from this one before the next one would hit.

Permian-Triassic The mass extinction among mass extinction events, known as The Great Dying.

On land it gave a massive blow to (ironically) the ancestor of mammals and relatives: the synapsids making the diapsids be in a better position to rediversify and dominate (dinosaurs and relatives). Both at that stage were still "reptiles". None of those went fully extinct but many of those groups did however, which is one of the reasons why a lot of those stem animals and mammal-reptile crosses aren't really around anymore.

All classes were affected, no animals really did well here. This is the only known extinction event among both plants and even insects.

In the oceans, it was even worse with staple animal species disappearing from the fossil record, wiping off 96% of species in the ocean, making the oceans never look the same again.

Cause is Siberian Traps, which lasted about 2 million years and also was a series of pulses within those years, including also having some additional eruptions post-border making recovery very slow and problematic. Recovery took about tens of millions of years.

Earth was a sick planet.

Triassic-Jurassic This one really ensured the dinosaurs would dominate hereafter as it eliminated most competitors of them. Cause is likely volcanism related to opening of the Atlantic/breakup of the supercontinent.

End-Cretaceous We all know this one

Modern day one.. We all know this one too, it's just a matter of whether you're in denial about it occuring or not, but if most megafauna/wildlife is already gone or only able to live in zoos or in restricted places in some nature reservations in Africa, than you know we have a problem.

Do you think he and StoneToss know each other?
Imagine an SNL sketch of both light skinned latino Nazis.

Yeah Trump should totally spend his money on Florida. It’s not like he has it in the bag or anything.

Can't hurt to invest in a state with a load of EC votes regardless. A politician should never take any state for granted. Hillary learned that mistake the hard way in 2016. Just because a state has trended X or Y way for however long doesn't mean it will 100% of the time. You gotta water your garden if you want to keep it healthy.

Hillary was right to target FL Murphy was the fav until Rubio jumped back in, right now Scott appears to be the maverick because he passed red flag laws, FL is outta play and so is TX it's a 319 map

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1791605981685662027

Never in my life would I have expected a Republican candidate to hold a rally in that part of town especially near Morrisania.

I'm guessing a "friendly" regime in Ukraine from Putin's perspective would be Belarus 2.0:

"In my recent piece in Foreign Affairs, I argued that nobody in Moscow is looking for an exit strategy from the war; rather, people are prepared to fight as long as it takes. Many interpreted this as a thesis that Moscow will not negotiate with Ukraine or agree to a ceasefire. That is not what I was saying. Here are several points to make my understanding more nuanced:

There is no discussion among senior officials in the Kremlin about negotiating with Ukraine or what compromises could be reached with Kyiv or the West. Decision-making on this issue is monopolized by Putin, and many senior officials simply guess what he wants but do not dare to initiate anything. The common belief is that Russia is winning, advancing successfully, and has the upper hand in Ukraine. Hence, they see no point in talking to the West, let alone Ukraine.

Putin does not aim to storm Odessa, Kyiv, or even Kharkiv. First, he lacks the army for that. Second, he does not want to engage in large-scale battles. His strategy is to impose on Ukraine military pressure, diminish military infrastructure, and intimidate locals to coerce Kyiv into surrendering and accepting Russian demands. He will only take what he believes he can, given his limited military capacity and wait when Ukraine falls.

Yes, Putin wants to talk, but strictly on Russian terms. He is concerned that a pause might be used by the West and Ukraine to rearm. Because of this, he will be extremely cautious about the conditions of any talks

He will not talk to Zelensky, as he does not believe Zelensky can deliver what Russia wants from Ukraine. Moscow has been signalling for months that the West must remove Zelensky. However, if Zelensky were to lift the ban on talks with Russia and open a window for negotiations, Putin might seize this opportunity (as a showcase and temporarily)—not to start real talks, but to demonstrate his readiness for negotiations, expecting, as well, it to accelerate Zelensky’s departure. Putin might also agree to a tactical ceasefire if reassured that it would not be used to rearm Ukraine and if he sees Ukraine is desperate and ready to discuss Russian demands.

So, what are Russia’s demands? Putin’s flexibility will depend on the progress on three tracks, which are inter-dependable:

1. Washington’s position: If Putin has any hope that the US might consider an "ironclad" ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership and other guarantees of neutrality, his position on two other tracks might soften.
2. Kyiv’s readiness to consider political demands: Putin wants a "friendly" regime in Ukraine—one that would exclude the emergence of anti-Russian forces. I will not go into details here, but If he believes he can achieve this, he may be flexible on territorial matters. It is important to say that I do not believe this is ever possible, but in Putin’s vision, it is no problem if Odessa remains Ukrainian as long as Ukraine is “friendly.”
3. Territorial Matters: If there is no progress on the first two tracks, Putin will continue a creeping offensive for as long as needed. If he is more successful militarily and gain more territories, he will become more contemptuous about first and second tracks.

The point of my article in Foreign Affairs was that if there is no sign from the West that serious talks are possible (in Putin’s eyes and those of the Russian ruling elite there are no such signs), the only path is further escalation. No one is concerned about this unless it brings us to the brink of nuclear war—an eventuality that might split the elite (I do not urge to provoke the nuclear escalation). Until then, the political class will stick with Putin and support his military ambitions."

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1791534488641544356