January 6th legal proceedings and investigations megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1523470875269378048

The hypocrisy is not accidental, it is deliberate. It serves both as a demonstration of power and as a test of loyalty for the faithful.

Absolutely everything starting with the words "Fox NewsCable News Host host calls for....." should be roundly ignored and / or ridiculed.

FTFY

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1554204595651596295

Apparently their mom told their dad not to take a plea as well.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1562593188916801537

Lock Him Up !

[OSR stands with Israel]

2 Questions I wonder with this:

1. Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

2. If convicted he probably would be placed on some abandoned military base given that Trump knows too much national security secrets to be placed in any civilian prison as even the guards there dont have the clearance to hear that info

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

1/12 is 8%, so it's pretty close to what he won in 2020. And he only needs 1 person.

Btw if you take the Biden's number in DC I calculated there is about a 37.5% chance every member on the jury would be a Biden supporter , on the other hand if you take the not Trump number there is about a 51.37% chance every member on the jury did not support Trump.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

1/12 is 8%, so it's pretty close to what he won in 2020. And he only needs 1 person.

Btw if you take the Biden's number in DC I calculated there is about a 37.5% chance every member on the jury would be a Biden supporter , on the other hand if you take the not Trump number there is about a 51.37% chance every member on the jury did not support Trump.

If you're arguing just for public acceptance of a conviction, it's a fair point. However, I don't think a vast majority of jury members just vote based on political preferences these days. I'd assume the jury takes their jobs very serious. It's even the same with conservative judges that ruled against Trump in certain cases. The politicization of the judical system is dangerous.

Btw I was just calculating whether or not Trump's team would prefer a bench trial here rather than a jury one and in legal docs about big cases, they talk about how one of the most critical thing is jury selection. They use all sorts of demographic data to try to predict which type of jury would be most favorable to the defense so with Trump, they probably would use political demographics here. For example with OJ the defense calculated the most favorable jury for him would be one comprised of African Americans and the prosecution calculated the least favorable jury for him would be one comprised of women and the jury ended up being mostly Black Women.

So btw the question for his defense team is what would they prefer , taking chances with jury given the probabilities I just calculated or a bench trial.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

1/12 is 8%, so it's pretty close to what he won in 2020. And he only needs 1 person.

Btw if you take the Biden's number in DC I calculated there is about a 37.5% chance every member on the jury would be a Biden supporter , on the other hand if you take the not Trump number there is about a 51.37% chance every member on the jury did not support Trump.

Trump has been impeached  stand FOREVER MORE and that is a blemish for 24 for him and DeSantis whom wants to Pardon Trump that's why DeSantis isn't gonna win VA the key state to win the Prez he is losing to Biden

Reagan should of been impeached for Iran Contra voters think he did nothing wrong, Bush H and Ollie North paid for their sins for Iran Contra they Lost

If Reagan should have been impeached for Iran Contra, so should have the vast majority of presidents since 1945 for their foreign policy actions. Iran Contra was bad but unlike Watergate and both of Trump's impeachments , Iran Contra was not done to advance Reagan's personal political interests and that is a huge difference

[OSR stands with Israel]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

Way more than that, he has a 48.63% chance to get it. 0.946^12=0.5137

[OSR stands with Israel]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

Way more than that, he has a 48.63% chance to get it. 0.946^12=0.5137

Technically this isn't correct because Washington D.C uses voir dire. In this case, unlike in most states in D.C, the judge asks questions to potential jurors based on a list submitted by both the prosecutor and the defense. Based on the answers, the judge can refuse to accept a juror.

So, you can go on from there in terms of the importance of any potential judge if this case goes ahead.

The significant thing from a mathematical perspective though, is that this means the jurors aren't entirely random, so probability formulas don't apply.

So this would increase the chance the defense asks for a bench trial right. Also btw a jury almost certainly would be sequestered here so one juror holding out would also have to be willing to spend weeks more in sequestration to force a hung jury.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Re: the DC jury question, you also need to factor in non-voters. Turnout was only 67% in 2020.

I’d say for a trial like this, all 12 jurors should be chosen from that 33%

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis on CNN

First question: “if Jack smith has evidence that Trump committed a crime, should Smith bring those charges”

Then Desantis starts talking about Alvin Bragg. He goes on and on without ever giving an answer to the question (and he was asked twice). I’m becoming more understanding of how DeSantis’ campaign has been going downhill

Cause all DeSantis can do is try to dodge these questions because if he answers “yes trump should be indicted” , his chances at the gop nomination would completely go up in smoke .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Great! This will wrap up the GOP nomination for Trump now. The more times he's indicted, the stronger he becomes.

I know we've all gotten numb to it, but it's actually insane when you think being indicted helps a candidate to secure the nomination. I couldn't imagine something like this in a Democratic primary.

I think it’s the charges.. he’s not really facing murder, rape, or theft charges, which people would understand. The charges are either too complicated for the common man (Mar a’ Lago), are directly related to a political election and therefore provoke partisan reactions (January 6th & GA), or are just plain trash (Bragg’s case). There’s no real identifiable victim who suffered injury in any of the charges, unless you get real vague and say “The American people as a whole are victims!”

You wanna know why DeSantis and other Republicans are unable to give good responses to these Trump indictments, it is precisely because even republican voters who want to move on from Trump are responding like how you just did .

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis on CNN

First question: “if Jack smith has evidence that Trump committed a crime, should Smith bring those charges”

Then Desantis starts talking about Alvin Bragg. He goes on and on without ever giving an answer to the question (and he was asked twice). I’m becoming more understanding of how DeSantis’ campaign has been going downhill

Cause all DeSantis can do is try to dodge these questions because if he answers “yes trump should be indicted” , his chances at the gop nomination would completely go up in smoke .

If DeSantis wants to be the anti-Trump candidate, then he needs to start acting like it.

People who are angry about a Trump indictment are already voting for Trump. He gains nothing by defending Trump every step of the way.

Maybe the primary system has lost its usage and we should junk it completely

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1681362597260541953?s=20

Sadly the base will probably side with Trump Jr here

[OSR stands with Israel]

Maybe the primary system has lost its usage and we should junk it completely

"If conservatives become convinced that they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will reject democracy."

No other nation uses a primary system anywhere to the extent we do . In the UK for example , party leaders select the top 2 candidates and then the party's voters select their party leader from that top 2 and in Canada , candidates need a certain amount of endorsements before allowed to run for party leader.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As an attorney, I can't stop laughing at this stuff. Trump knows investigations like this take time. There was no way he'd be indicted 2.5 years ago, but his followers will eat it up.

Why did this investigation take so much time . Like couldn’t he be indicted as soon as soon as the fake electoral scheme was found out

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1686486270325698561

What does that mean

[OSR stands with Israel]

If he gets convicted on these counts I think he’s barred from running correct?

Doubtful.  I think it would require a conviction for insurrection, which is not one of the charges.  At least so far.

I think you're correct here so Trump can still run for President!

Looks like the GOP needs to rally around whoever is the leading anti Trump candidate after IA/NH and do everything possible to help them get them nomination . DeSantis Scott Haley Pence Christe all should make a deal with each other behind the scenes to ensure this happens

[OSR stands with Israel]

If he gets convicted on these counts I think he’s barred from running correct?

Doubtful.  I think it would require a conviction for insurrection, which is not one of the charges.  At least so far.

I think you're correct here so Trump can still run for President!

Looks like the GOP needs to rally around whoever is the leading anti Trump candidate after IA/NH and do everything possible to help them get them nomination . DeSantis Scott Haley Pence Christe all should make a deal with each other behind the scenes to ensure this happens

This is objectively the correct strategy, but the problem is that all the participants think they should be the surviving candidate.  This creates a Prisoner's Dilemma situation in which their failure to cooperate means they will all lose.

This is why they all should offer an actually good deal :

One of them gets to be VP
One of them Sec of State/Defense
Others get other roles in the admin

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1686494955420692480

He keeps giving these responses that literally no one will like lol.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So will the jury consist only of DC residents? If so, it’s more likely than not to include zero Trump voters.

Would it be better for Trump to request a Bench Trial here or no

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1686494955420692480

He keeps giving these responses that literally no one will like lol.

He has to be the most inept presidential candidate I have ever seen.

I remember when I thought he could be this generation's Reagan. I was completely wrong about that

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1686494955420692480

He keeps giving these responses that literally no one will like lol.

He has to be the most inept presidential candidate I have ever seen.

I remember when I thought he could be this generation's Reagan. I was completely wrong about that

I'll always give credit to people who admit they're wrong. Don't sweat it. Everyone has a primary candidate that they fall in love with that fizzles out.

Would not have been as big of a problem if Trump was not running as him collapsing would not lead to our nominee being someone who is indicted of basically intentionally harming our national security and showing no regard for the rule of law.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1686494955420692480

He keeps giving these responses that literally no one will like lol.

I've been banging away at this for months: His candidacy only ever made sense in a universe where Trump didn't run. This statement is yet another example of that. This is the statement you give when Trump isn't running and you want to win over the primary voters who would have supported him.

The biggest problem for any Republican who wants to beat Trump is they have to find some way to get "Soft" Trump supporters on their side without losing anyone else . Its probably extremely difficult to thread that needle and I dont think any of our candidates are capable of really doing that.