Recent Posts

Show posts from buddies only

Why do people all of a sudden seem to think the polls are picking up shy Trump voters who refused to answer the polls in 2016 or 2020?

Short answer:

Wishful thinking

The fact that he was a unifying figure

Dislike: Fanning the culture wars

?

I like how you snipped out the other part of that post. After 9/11, he did unify the country, and I don’t think we would have that type of national unity, if such a tragedy happened today.

If true, Bush is largely the reason for that.

Take it from someone who was actually walking the earth when this happened: he took that "national unity" and turned it into a nightmare decade of racism, jingoism and the cynical destruction of the middle class.

Race relations arguably peaked in America from like 1998-2013 which means the Bush Presidency was the only presidency where race relations were at their peak throughout .

Also Bush made it clear multiple times that he supported being inclusive and condemned racism. The culture also was not racist either as I too grew up in that decade (though I was in 6th grade when Bush left office) and did not feel things were racist at all and when it comes to pop culture I find the criticism that shows like 24 were Islamophobic to be insane.

Just a few more weeks now...

A+ rescue effort:

"Head of the Red Crescent tells Iranian state media that "our colleagues confused the smell of car fuel with the smell of helicopter fuel"

https://t.me/mehrnews/197653"

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1792348437931024494

Go back to looking like the party of working-class people of all backgrounds, because like it or not the perception isn't there right now.

If not that, I don't know. Get used to losing elections, I guess.

DNC can´t control what the activisat left push, unless you want a New Dealer dictadorship with chairman Fetterman. Surely not.

The DNC can't control what activists do, no. But they can run a campaign that's not just "We're better than the other guy."

[Trump 272, Biden 225, toss-up 41]

These were published a while back but I didn't see them until now. Nonetheless, they seem to be the first major forecaster to have either candidate above the 270 EV threshold this cycle.

What are your thoughts on their preliminary electoral map for the 2024 presidential race?

Total EVs by candidate: Trump 272, Biden 225, toss-up 41

Safe Republican (188): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (, Louisiana (, Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska at-large (2), Nebraska's first Congressional District (1), Nebraska's third Congressional District (1), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Lean Republican (84): Florida (30), Georgia (16), Maine's second Congressional District (1), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16)

Toss-up (41): Arizona (11), Nebraska's second Congressional District (1), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

Lean Democratic (50): Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (, Virginia (13)

Safe Democratic (175): California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine at-large (2), Maine's first Congressional District (1), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)

Analysis article here:

move Michigan to toss-up and Florida to solid R then we have the current state of the race based on the polls.

To be fair, Arizona should be lean R too if they classify GA and NV as lean R.

But agree with moving MI to toss-up and FL to solid red basically (if they don't likely).

And also swap Oregon for Maine at large. And CO should be safe D too. For NM, i'd like to see more data.

Possible but unlikely.

If Trump only flips GA, AZ, and NV, he gets to 268. So, what about NE 2? Could he win that also?

I think it's far more realistic for him to go after one of the big Midwestern battlegrounds. The newly redrawn NE-02 was already 3 to 5 points more Democratic than each of those states in 2020, and is almost certainly trending D much faster than all of them.

In fact, I'd put more effort into NM, ME-AL, and maybe even MN if I were Team Trump.

It's also only one electoral vote

And only leads to a tie in the scenario he wins it but loses the midwestern states. It's possible he wins it but I suspect he wins the 3 midwestern battlegrounds before taking back NE-2.

To the question whether it is safe... obviously no. But if the Biden team and supporters want to be overconfident going in election cycle, be my guest.

Single digits i believe

The state being in play, not really.

9% win for Biden i predict here.

[sexual relationship with Paul Pelosi]

This is actually pretty sad. Here you have a man that is very obviously mentally ill who was possibly in a sexual relationship with Paul Pelosi driven to the edge. I don't know what caused him to tick, but now being sentenced to 30 years I think is way over the edge. There are murderers who've gotten less time than that. I think this is a man who clearly needs serious psychiatric care and would be far better served in a mental health institution to remain indefinitely until he is no longer deemed a threat to public safety. That could be in a few months, or it could never happen.

I’m pretty sure that was thoroughly debunked.

By who?? Is it because it sounds preposterous? The two did know each other, it wasn't a random encounter. There was clearly a relationship. I do not know how intimate it was. But something set him off. Could've been drugs, could've been an argument.   

You can watch the attack on the police body-cam. There’s literally no indication that they knew each other.