Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[lfromnj]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada-to-limit-study-permits-for-international-students-raise-financial-requirement/article_0b973e50-9521-11ee-b0ba-5b0c543a06c1.html
Canada to finally do something to curb international "students" a tiny amount.

[MaxQue]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada-to-limit-study-permits-for-international-students-raise-financial-requirement/article_0b973e50-9521-11ee-b0ba-5b0c543a06c1.html
Canada to finally do something to curb international "students" a tiny amount.

Well, that's pretty much the most they can do without getting in an huge fight with provincial government.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Random thought of the day. I'm by no means the biggest advocate for electoral reform (yes, FPTP is a deeply flawed system at best, I just don't think switching to PR would make politics all that much better when it comes to the most important issues). But the PR gods did serve some karmic justice on Canada's two big parties. The Tories have always been pro-FPTP, and they got screwed in the last two elections because they weren't able to distribute their votes evenly. The Liberals were for electoral reform when they were in a distant third place, but it's obvious that Trudeau either never meant it in the first place, or had his mind changed by an FPTP majority. But that "efficient vote" seems to be coming back to bite them, now that they're falling below 30 and they don't have many safe seats to fall back on.

[Estrella]

lmao Quebec

December 7: Trudeau appoints the first Indigenous lieutenant governor

December 8: National Assembly unanimously votes to abolish the office of lieutenant governor

(it’s probably just unfortunate timing, it was a QS motion after all, but Quebec nationalism does have a huge blind spot when it comes to First Nations)

[Vosem]

Does anyone believe that Trudeau has more competency than Pedro Sanchez or even Chris Hipkins?

Less than Sanchez who despite losing popular vote is still PM.  Hipkins hard to say.  If Trudeau does win less because of him and more Poilievre does something.  And considering his willingness to pander to more extreme types and number of crazies in party not out of the realm of possibility. 

In fairness to Trudeau, he lost the popular vote in 2019 and 2021 and still remained Prime Minister, although that was a pretty unexceptional outcome in the Canadian system.

[Hatman 🍁]

Random thought of the day. I'm by no means the biggest advocate for electoral reform (yes, FPTP is a deeply flawed system at best, I just don't think switching to PR would make politics all that much better when it comes to the most important issues).

The idea isn't to "make politics better", but rather more fair and representative.

[CumbrianLefty]

Random thought of the day. I'm by no means the biggest advocate for electoral reform (yes, FPTP is a deeply flawed system at best, I just don't think switching to PR would make politics all that much better when it comes to the most important issues).

The idea isn't to "make politics better", but rather more fair and representative.

And that is a totally legitimate and worthy aim, one which might indeed make things "better" if only at the margins. The problem comes with those who portray PR as some magical cure-all - or even worse offer snake oil statements like "it will lock the right out of power forever".

[MaxQue]

lmao Quebec

December 7: Trudeau appoints the first Indigenous lieutenant governor

December 8: National Assembly unanimously votes to abolish the office of lieutenant governor

(it’s probably just unfortunate timing, it was a QS motion after all, but Quebec nationalism does have a huge blind spot when it comes to First Nations)

From what I understand, QS problem with it is "Trudeau appoints" more than anything else.
They call for the position to be renamed and elected by the Assembly or in some other way.

[King of Kensington]

Abacus: 37-27-19

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-drops-to-10-over-liberals/

[CumbrianLefty]

Abacus: 37-27-19

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-drops-to-10-over-liberals/

Still very good for the Tories, but there do seem to be fewer government disasters in recent weeks?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Abacus: 37-27-19

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-drops-to-10-over-liberals/

Still very good for the Tories, but there do seem to be fewer government disasters in recent weeks?

Poilievre took control of the narrative over the summer and fall, and the Liberals didn't really know how to handle it, not helped by the litany of stupid PR disasters over the fall like Nazigate, "housing isn't a federal responsibility", and the carbon tax exemption which seemed to convince no one. But since November, yeah I'd say the Liberals are starting to regain ground. Sean Fraser has been one of the stronger ministers recently, he's making moves on housing that, while still very preliminary and likely to be too little too late, at least disrupt Poilievre's narrative on housing. I also don't think Poilievre and the parliamentary CPC are that impressive in the house, which puts them at a disadvantage when parliament is in session.

My view is that the CPC successfully executed its first act of introducing the leader to less politically engaged Canadians. Canadian elections, as we all know by now, are very "presidentialized", with the popularity of the leader able to swing far more voters than traditional partisanship. Polls now consistently show that while Poilievre isn't exactly beloved, he's less unpopular than the alternatives, which is all you need anyway. The second act has to be more policy-focused though. I think the mini-documentary on housing was a good idea on this front, but they need to start fleshing out their policy goals more broadly. I think the whole "don't announce anything, just promise change" thing won't work for the CPC the way it did for Doug Ford in 2018, because the LPC under Trudeau is far more politically skilled than the OLP under Wynne. There's some merit to the idea that opposition parties should focus more energy on countering the government than putting forward policies when we're this far out from an election. But two more years of just criticizing the status quo without convincing people on an alternative runs the risk of seeming like massive blowhards who just want power for power's sake.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Abacus: 37-27-19

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-drops-to-10-over-liberals/

Still very good for the Tories, but there do seem to be fewer government disasters in recent weeks?

Poilievre took control of the narrative over the summer and fall, and the Liberals didn't really know how to handle it, not helped by the litany of stupid PR disasters over the fall like Nazigate, "housing isn't a federal responsibility", and the carbon tax exemption which seemed to convince no one. But since November, yeah I'd say the Liberals are starting to regain ground. Sean Fraser has been one of the stronger ministers recently, he's making moves on housing that, while still very preliminary and likely to be too little too late, at least disrupt Poilievre's narrative on housing. I also don't think Poilievre and the parliamentary CPC are that impressive in the house, which puts them at a disadvantage when parliament is in session.

My view is that the CPC successfully executed its first act of introducing the leader to less politically engaged Canadians. Canadian elections, as we all know by now, are very "presidentialized", with the popularity of the leader able to swing far more voters than traditional partisanship. Polls now consistently show that while Poilievre isn't exactly beloved, he's less unpopular than the alternatives, which is all you need anyway. The second act has to be more policy-focused though. I think the mini-documentary on housing was a good idea on this front, but they need to start fleshing out their policy goals more broadly. I think the whole "don't announce anything, just promise change" thing won't work for the CPC the way it did for Doug Ford in 2018, because the LPC under Trudeau is far more politically skilled than the OLP under Wynne. There's some merit to the idea that opposition parties should focus more energy on countering the government than putting forward policies when we're this far out from an election. But two more years of just criticizing the status quo without convincing people on an alternative runs the risk of seeming like massive blowhards who just want power for power's sake.

Apparently this Abacus poll, and it is just one poll, also reported that of the approximately 5% of Canadians who have switched from the Liberals to the Conservatives since the 2021 election, that they dislike Justin Trudeau but would be convinced to vote Liberal in the next election if they become convinced that Poilievre would be worse. So, if this poll is accurate, it also suggests that the Liberal attacks on Pierre Poilievre are having an effect.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Abacus: 37-27-19

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-drops-to-10-over-liberals/

Still very good for the Tories, but there do seem to be fewer government disasters in recent weeks?

Poilievre took control of the narrative over the summer and fall, and the Liberals didn't really know how to handle it, not helped by the litany of stupid PR disasters over the fall like Nazigate, "housing isn't a federal responsibility", and the carbon tax exemption which seemed to convince no one. But since November, yeah I'd say the Liberals are starting to regain ground. Sean Fraser has been one of the stronger ministers recently, he's making moves on housing that, while still very preliminary and likely to be too little too late, at least disrupt Poilievre's narrative on housing. I also don't think Poilievre and the parliamentary CPC are that impressive in the house, which puts them at a disadvantage when parliament is in session.

My view is that the CPC successfully executed its first act of introducing the leader to less politically engaged Canadians. Canadian elections, as we all know by now, are very "presidentialized", with the popularity of the leader able to swing far more voters than traditional partisanship. Polls now consistently show that while Poilievre isn't exactly beloved, he's less unpopular than the alternatives, which is all you need anyway. The second act has to be more policy-focused though. I think the mini-documentary on housing was a good idea on this front, but they need to start fleshing out their policy goals more broadly. I think the whole "don't announce anything, just promise change" thing won't work for the CPC the way it did for Doug Ford in 2018, because the LPC under Trudeau is far more politically skilled than the OLP under Wynne. There's some merit to the idea that opposition parties should focus more energy on countering the government than putting forward policies when we're this far out from an election. But two more years of just criticizing the status quo without convincing people on an alternative runs the risk of seeming like massive blowhards who just want power for power's sake.

Apparently this Abacus poll, and it is just one poll, also reported that of the approximately 5% of Canadians who have switched from the Liberals to the Conservatives since the 2021 election, that they dislike Justin Trudeau but would be convinced to vote Liberal in the next election if they become convinced that Poilievre would be worse. So, if this poll is accurate, it also suggests that the Liberal attacks on Pierre Poilievre are having an effect.

And to that point, also raises questions about whether a non-Trudeau leader could turn the Liberals' fortunes.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Abacus: 37-27-19

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-drops-to-10-over-liberals/

Still very good for the Tories, but there do seem to be fewer government disasters in recent weeks?

Poilievre took control of the narrative over the summer and fall, and the Liberals didn't really know how to handle it, not helped by the litany of stupid PR disasters over the fall like Nazigate, "housing isn't a federal responsibility", and the carbon tax exemption which seemed to convince no one. But since November, yeah I'd say the Liberals are starting to regain ground. Sean Fraser has been one of the stronger ministers recently, he's making moves on housing that, while still very preliminary and likely to be too little too late, at least disrupt Poilievre's narrative on housing. I also don't think Poilievre and the parliamentary CPC are that impressive in the house, which puts them at a disadvantage when parliament is in session.

My view is that the CPC successfully executed its first act of introducing the leader to less politically engaged Canadians. Canadian elections, as we all know by now, are very "presidentialized", with the popularity of the leader able to swing far more voters than traditional partisanship. Polls now consistently show that while Poilievre isn't exactly beloved, he's less unpopular than the alternatives, which is all you need anyway. The second act has to be more policy-focused though. I think the mini-documentary on housing was a good idea on this front, but they need to start fleshing out their policy goals more broadly. I think the whole "don't announce anything, just promise change" thing won't work for the CPC the way it did for Doug Ford in 2018, because the LPC under Trudeau is far more politically skilled than the OLP under Wynne. There's some merit to the idea that opposition parties should focus more energy on countering the government than putting forward policies when we're this far out from an election. But two more years of just criticizing the status quo without convincing people on an alternative runs the risk of seeming like massive blowhards who just want power for power's sake.

Apparently this Abacus poll, and it is just one poll, also reported that of the approximately 5% of Canadians who have switched from the Liberals to the Conservatives since the 2021 election, that they dislike Justin Trudeau but would be convinced to vote Liberal in the next election if they become convinced that Poilievre would be worse. So, if this poll is accurate, it also suggests that the Liberal attacks on Pierre Poilievre are having an effect.

And to that point, also raises questions about whether a non-Trudeau leader could turn the Liberals' fortunes.

Trudeau had something of a fair point on housing. Obviously the federal government is responsible more or less for the immigration levels (not with student visas) and they have the 'power of the purse' but when you look here in British Columbia at what the provincial government is forcing on municipalities, and the provinces ability to do this because 'municipalities are creatures of the province' the Federal Government could not do these things.

IN OUR VIEW: Is this what a housing revolution looks like?
New rules are biggest change in B.C. land use in 50 years
https://www.mapleridgenews.com/opinion/in-our-view-is-this-what-a-housing-revolution-looks-like-7115252

I don't know what other provinces are doing, but this is what the B.C government has done:
An incomplete list of the changes introduced over the last few months by Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon includes:

• Triplexes, fourplexes, and in some areas, sixplexes to be allowed on most single family lots, depending on size and availability of transit

• A crackdown on Airbnb and VRBO, including a near total ban on non-residential short-term rentals

• Changes to how towns and cities zone and plan for future development, including eliminating most public hearings

• Changes to development cost charges and amenity contributions cities collect from developers

• Increased density around transit hubs, and

• Funding for non-profits to buy up and manage existing rental buildings, preserving it from re-development.

One thing the federal government could do to help on this, and some of this has probably already been announced, is federal funding to help with necessary infrastructure upgrades for all this increased development likes expanded roads and sewers.

One interesting thing that could lead to is if provincial governments squawk with the federal government dealing directly with municipalities on these things. I would certainly expect Quebec to complain, but Alberta and Saskatchewan would be interesting.

One thing that may have helped the federal Liberals improve in the polls, or at least stopped the momentum of the federal Conservatives is the Liberals starting to use Premier Danielle Smith as a foil. Both Dominic LeBlanc and Jonathan Wilkinson referred to her demand for 53% of the money in the federal pension plan and her ideas on continued long term use  (increasing or the same amounts) of fossil fuels as 'fantasy.' I don't believe that was the exact word, but it was very similar.

How does Poilievre's plans to punish municipalities that won't increase housing work if the provinces are telling the Federal government that municipalities are creatures of the province?

[lfromnj]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/canada-to-create-citizenship-path-for-undocumented-immigrants-globe-and-mail/ar-AA1lvDfP

An estimated 300,000 to 600,000 people are living in the country without valid documents, many of whom risk deportation because they lack formal status, The Global and Mail quoted Miller as saying.

The new program would also include people who entered the country legally, as temporary workers or international students, and then remained here after their visas expired, the report said.

[mileslunn]

Next year we have three provincial elections unless one other goes early.

British Columbia: Barring some major scandal, Eby should easily win and probably a sizeable majority.  Real prize is who comes in second as likely parties on right merge or voters coalesce around one in 2028 so whomever comes in second has upper hand.  Right now BC Conservatives have momentum and they do seem to represent modern right more which is more populist than pro business.  But at same time some could be confusion with BC United.  In 2012 BC Liberals and BC Conservatives were nearly tied but once campaign started, they plummeted and most returned to BC Liberals.  Still their rise probably pulls BC United more to right than they would like. As for who forms opposition, I think both have reasonable chance and could even see a case where party that comes in second in votes doesn't in seats just depending on distribution.

New Brunswick:  Of three provincial, this is without question the most contested.  PCs are in a tough spot and Higgs could very well lose.  Only thing in his favour is PC vote more efficient so can narrowly lose popular vote and still win majority.  However with Greens in teens, wouldn't be surprised if many Green and NDP votes move towards Liberals to defeat Higgs.  And its also majority or bust.  NB Greens have made clear in a minority government, they will back Liberals irrespective of seat count.  At this point I think it is truly a toss up and could go either way.  Campaign will matter a lot here too.

Saskatchewan: Moe should win again due to Saskatchewan Party dominance in rural areas but I suspect it will be closer than last 3 elections  and wouldn't be shocked if NDP gets over 20 seats.  With risk of a splinter right wing party hurting Saskatchewan Party in rural areas, I can see party moving rightward and that likely costs them some of their urban seats which are more moderate.  Also just general fatigue of government should help NDP.  Problem for NDP is more nowadays right has lock on rural areas throughout Anglosphere with few exceptions so until Regina + Saskatoon grow enough to outvote rest of province (which they will in time), NDP winning will be very tough.  Essentially they would have to sweep both cities, win both Prince Albert seats, both Moose Jaw seats and two northern and even then I think that barely gets them over the line.  Still if desire for change strong enough and Beck is seen as a credible alternative there is an outside chance of upset but unlikely. 

Federally I don't think there will be an election, but be interesting what happens with federal polls. Tories appear maxed out but globally it seems right is getting levels of support that were unthinkable not long ago.  Trudeau says he won't go but if poll numbers don't recover, can he hang on?  Likewise if Trump wins (which is a very real possibility), does that harm Conservative poll numbers?  I think no election as NDP absolutely doesn't want Tories in power as they want a more left wing Canada and a Poilievre win would undo all of that so even if they move into second, will only pull plug if Tories fall back to low 30s.  For Liberals will they move left to try and consolidate left or will they pivot to centre to try to win back some soft Tory voters who are tired of Liberals but uneasy about Poilievre?  I could see some left wing policies coming down pipe like UBI, single payer pharmacare, wealth tax etc.  All popular and all hated by Tory base so easy way to trip up Poilievre.  My guess is no federal election, but possible Trudeau goes during US election so he can use GOP as backdrop to fearmonger about Tories.  Many have said it won't work, but I think while won't work with most, it will work with enough to tip the election away from a Tory majority as only need a small number to do that.

[mileslunn]

Another question is short of a blue wave in Quebec, do people think Tory vote has hit ceiling?  Liberals have not hit floor as possible NDP pulls ahead of them, but I tend to think Tories are at ceiling and can only climb higher if there is a blue wave in Quebec and usually Quebec tends to have big swings during the campaign not before.

Other question, is are Liberals toast or do they have a path back?  Obviously anything is possible in politics and likewise they are obviously underdogs, but I mean barring some extreme surprise is there any realistic chance of them winning?

My view is if Trudeau stays on, chances of beating Tories in seats is very slim but could deny them a majority and maybe much like Sanchez did in Spain stay on by getting and NDP and perhaps BQ support.  But a Trudeau led Liberal party winning most seats let alone a majority seems far fetched.

Now if change leaders it is a higher risk/higher reward.  With a new leader, I absolutely think Liberals can come back and win.  But at same time chances of them falling to third place are also much higher too.  Trudeau has a core base that loves him thus why if you are one who thinks Liberals are going to lose, at least with Trudeau you can form opposition.  But due to baggage, a lot really don't like him, meaning he has a very low ceiling in vote potential.  By contrast Canada has not taken a sharp turn right.  Canada is still broadly a centrist to slightly left of centre country meaning many out there who want Trudeau gone but don't want a big shift right and a new leader might be able to win those back.

Some on right are giddy about this being the big shift right they have always hoped for.  I don't think Poilievre will shift country dramatically to right like Thatcher did in UK or Reagan in US.  Either he will take incrementalist approach like Harper, more populist like Ford or maybe hardline like Harris but gets tossed after one or two terms and Liberals or NDP undo all the changes and party spends a decade or two in the wilderness.  Reagan and Thatcher pulled country rightward as both Labour and Democrats moved to centre and abandoned any idea of going back to way things were before and few like Corbyn who tried to lost badly.  By contrast Harris moved Ontario to right, but OLP over 15 years in power largely undid most of his legacy but gradually.  If like Harper, only moves country right if in power for a very long time and I think nowadays people fatigue of governments a lot faster than in past so chance of Tories lasting over 10 years seems slim.  I actually think we may be entering age where 8 years is maximum shelf life of government.  If like Ford, he will back off more right wing ideas when public backlash to try and stay liked.  However, I think Ford wants to be liked whereas I don't think Poilievre cares if he is hated by large portion of population so he will likely either be like Harris or Harper. 

So question is, have Tories hit ceiling or can they go even higher and how high?

Do Liberals have path back to power both with and without Trudeau?

And will a Poilievre win mean big shift right or will Canada largely remain politically like it is now or even see a left wing backlash?

[CumbrianLefty]

I think it is quite illustrative that a major part of the Tory poll surge has been housing - not these days what is generally considered a "right wing" issue. This may indicate that whilst voters are thinking of a change, they want the Tories to manage things better rather than surge massively to the right.

Of course, this is a generalisation. But I do think that if the Tories see a win next time as a reason to go full Milei/Truss, they will be making quite a big mistake.

[mileslunn]

I think it is quite illustrative that a major part of the Tory poll surge has been housing - not these days what is generally considered a "right wing" issue. This may indicate that whilst voters are thinking of a change, they want the Tories to manage things better rather than surge massively to the right.

Of course, this is a generalisation. But I do think that if the Tories see a win next time as a reason to go full Milei/Truss, they will be making quite a big mistake.

Absolutely although I think Poilievre shares similar ideology with those two but whether he can show restraint or not don't know.  Smith is a lot like those two, but surprisingly has been more a populist, although I think problem with her is she is not very bright and also much of caucus supported Toews so would have more trouble getting party behind her on such thing. 

[Upper Canada Tory]

Another question is short of a blue wave in Quebec, do people think Tory vote has hit ceiling?  Liberals have not hit floor as possible NDP pulls ahead of them, but I tend to think Tories are at ceiling and can only climb higher if there is a blue wave in Quebec and usually Quebec tends to have big swings during the campaign not before.

Other question, is are Liberals toast or do they have a path back?  Obviously anything is possible in politics and likewise they are obviously underdogs, but I mean barring some extreme surprise is there any realistic chance of them winning?

My view is if Trudeau stays on, chances of beating Tories in seats is very slim but could deny them a majority and maybe much like Sanchez did in Spain stay on by getting and NDP and perhaps BQ support.  But a Trudeau led Liberal party winning most seats let alone a majority seems far fetched.

Now if change leaders it is a higher risk/higher reward.  With a new leader, I absolutely think Liberals can come back and win.  But at same time chances of them falling to third place are also much higher too.  Trudeau has a core base that loves him thus why if you are one who thinks Liberals are going to lose, at least with Trudeau you can form opposition.  But due to baggage, a lot really don't like him, meaning he has a very low ceiling in vote potential.  By contrast Canada has not taken a sharp turn right.  Canada is still broadly a centrist to slightly left of centre country meaning many out there who want Trudeau gone but don't want a big shift right and a new leader might be able to win those back.

Some on right are giddy about this being the big shift right they have always hoped for.  I don't think Poilievre will shift country dramatically to right like Thatcher did in UK or Reagan in US.  Either he will take incrementalist approach like Harper, more populist like Ford or maybe hardline like Harris but gets tossed after one or two terms and Liberals or NDP undo all the changes and party spends a decade or two in the wilderness.  Reagan and Thatcher pulled country rightward as both Labour and Democrats moved to centre and abandoned any idea of going back to way things were before and few like Corbyn who tried to lost badly.  By contrast Harris moved Ontario to right, but OLP over 15 years in power largely undid most of his legacy but gradually.  If like Harper, only moves country right if in power for a very long time and I think nowadays people fatigue of governments a lot faster than in past so chance of Tories lasting over 10 years seems slim.  I actually think we may be entering age where 8 years is maximum shelf life of government.  If like Ford, he will back off more right wing ideas when public backlash to try and stay liked.  However, I think Ford wants to be liked whereas I don't think Poilievre cares if he is hated by large portion of population so he will likely either be like Harris or Harper.  

So question is, have Tories hit ceiling or can they go even higher and how high?

Do Liberals have path back to power both with and without Trudeau?

And will a Poilievre win mean big shift right or will Canada largely remain politically like it is now or even see a left wing backlash?

I think Poilievre will be slightly more like Doug Ford when governing - by that I mean he will be a mix of moderate economic policies (largely in response to public backlash) and moving the country to the economic right. Ford also wanted to slash the size of government when campaigning, but he immediately moderated that stance when he came to power. However, that doesn't mean Ford hasn't moved Ontario to the right on some issues - particularly on healthcare where he has allowed more private healthcare facilities.

With that said, I hope Poilievre keeps true to his promise of reducing government spending and keeping it under control rather than the mistakes Doug Ford has made, namely running increasing deficits during the first two years of his government.

If Poilievre ends up being 'too right-wing' however, I think there is a risk of a left-wing backlash from the Canadian equivalent of Bernie Sanders-type people, mainly in the NDP. However, I'm not sure such a movement will be that successful - the Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn types have flopped very hard in other English-speaking countries and I don't think Canada would be any different.

[mileslunn]

Another question is short of a blue wave in Quebec, do people think Tory vote has hit ceiling?  Liberals have not hit floor as possible NDP pulls ahead of them, but I tend to think Tories are at ceiling and can only climb higher if there is a blue wave in Quebec and usually Quebec tends to have big swings during the campaign not before.

Other question, is are Liberals toast or do they have a path back?  Obviously anything is possible in politics and likewise they are obviously underdogs, but I mean barring some extreme surprise is there any realistic chance of them winning?

My view is if Trudeau stays on, chances of beating Tories in seats is very slim but could deny them a majority and maybe much like Sanchez did in Spain stay on by getting and NDP and perhaps BQ support.  But a Trudeau led Liberal party winning most seats let alone a majority seems far fetched.

Now if change leaders it is a higher risk/higher reward.  With a new leader, I absolutely think Liberals can come back and win.  But at same time chances of them falling to third place are also much higher too.  Trudeau has a core base that loves him thus why if you are one who thinks Liberals are going to lose, at least with Trudeau you can form opposition.  But due to baggage, a lot really don't like him, meaning he has a very low ceiling in vote potential.  By contrast Canada has not taken a sharp turn right.  Canada is still broadly a centrist to slightly left of centre country meaning many out there who want Trudeau gone but don't want a big shift right and a new leader might be able to win those back.

Some on right are giddy about this being the big shift right they have always hoped for.  I don't think Poilievre will shift country dramatically to right like Thatcher did in UK or Reagan in US.  Either he will take incrementalist approach like Harper, more populist like Ford or maybe hardline like Harris but gets tossed after one or two terms and Liberals or NDP undo all the changes and party spends a decade or two in the wilderness.  Reagan and Thatcher pulled country rightward as both Labour and Democrats moved to centre and abandoned any idea of going back to way things were before and few like Corbyn who tried to lost badly.  By contrast Harris moved Ontario to right, but OLP over 15 years in power largely undid most of his legacy but gradually.  If like Harper, only moves country right if in power for a very long time and I think nowadays people fatigue of governments a lot faster than in past so chance of Tories lasting over 10 years seems slim.  I actually think we may be entering age where 8 years is maximum shelf life of government.  If like Ford, he will back off more right wing ideas when public backlash to try and stay liked.  However, I think Ford wants to be liked whereas I don't think Poilievre cares if he is hated by large portion of population so he will likely either be like Harris or Harper.  

So question is, have Tories hit ceiling or can they go even higher and how high?

Do Liberals have path back to power both with and without Trudeau?

And will a Poilievre win mean big shift right or will Canada largely remain politically like it is now or even see a left wing backlash?

I think Poilievre will be slightly more like Doug Ford when governing - by that I mean he will be a mix of moderate economic policies (largely in response to public backlash) and moving the country to the economic right. Ford also wanted to slash the size of government when campaigning, but he immediately moderated that stance when he came to power. However, that doesn't mean Ford hasn't moved Ontario to the right on some issues - particularly on healthcare where he has allowed more private healthcare facilities.

With that said, I hope Poilievre keeps true to his promise of reducing government spending and keeping it under control rather than the mistakes Doug Ford has made, namely running increasing deficits during the first two years of his government.

If Poilievre ends up being 'too right-wing' however, I think there is a risk of a left-wing backlash from the Canadian equivalent of Bernie Sanders-type people, mainly in the NDP. However, I'm not sure such a movement will be that successful - the Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn types have flopped very hard in other English-speaking countries and I don't think Canada would be any different.

US is more skeptical of socialism than Canada so while not sure if Bernie Sanders could win here, he would definitely have better chance than in US.  Corbyn agreed although if he faced Truss who knows what would have happened.  Johnson was big on spending and avoided austerity.  He was more a populist than traditional small government type.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Another question is short of a blue wave in Quebec, do people think Tory vote has hit ceiling?  Liberals have not hit floor as possible NDP pulls ahead of them, but I tend to think Tories are at ceiling and can only climb higher if there is a blue wave in Quebec and usually Quebec tends to have big swings during the campaign not before.

Other question, is are Liberals toast or do they have a path back?  Obviously anything is possible in politics and likewise they are obviously underdogs, but I mean barring some extreme surprise is there any realistic chance of them winning?

My view is if Trudeau stays on, chances of beating Tories in seats is very slim but could deny them a majority and maybe much like Sanchez did in Spain stay on by getting and NDP and perhaps BQ support.  But a Trudeau led Liberal party winning most seats let alone a majority seems far fetched.

Now if change leaders it is a higher risk/higher reward.  With a new leader, I absolutely think Liberals can come back and win.  But at same time chances of them falling to third place are also much higher too.  Trudeau has a core base that loves him thus why if you are one who thinks Liberals are going to lose, at least with Trudeau you can form opposition.  But due to baggage, a lot really don't like him, meaning he has a very low ceiling in vote potential.  By contrast Canada has not taken a sharp turn right.  Canada is still broadly a centrist to slightly left of centre country meaning many out there who want Trudeau gone but don't want a big shift right and a new leader might be able to win those back.

Some on right are giddy about this being the big shift right they have always hoped for.  I don't think Poilievre will shift country dramatically to right like Thatcher did in UK or Reagan in US.  Either he will take incrementalist approach like Harper, more populist like Ford or maybe hardline like Harris but gets tossed after one or two terms and Liberals or NDP undo all the changes and party spends a decade or two in the wilderness.  Reagan and Thatcher pulled country rightward as both Labour and Democrats moved to centre and abandoned any idea of going back to way things were before and few like Corbyn who tried to lost badly.  By contrast Harris moved Ontario to right, but OLP over 15 years in power largely undid most of his legacy but gradually.  If like Harper, only moves country right if in power for a very long time and I think nowadays people fatigue of governments a lot faster than in past so chance of Tories lasting over 10 years seems slim.  I actually think we may be entering age where 8 years is maximum shelf life of government.  If like Ford, he will back off more right wing ideas when public backlash to try and stay liked.  However, I think Ford wants to be liked whereas I don't think Poilievre cares if he is hated by large portion of population so he will likely either be like Harris or Harper.  

So question is, have Tories hit ceiling or can they go even higher and how high?

Do Liberals have path back to power both with and without Trudeau?

And will a Poilievre win mean big shift right or will Canada largely remain politically like it is now or even see a left wing backlash?

I think Poilievre will be slightly more like Doug Ford when governing - by that I mean he will be a mix of moderate economic policies (largely in response to public backlash) and moving the country to the economic right. Ford also wanted to slash the size of government when campaigning, but he immediately moderated that stance when he came to power. However, that doesn't mean Ford hasn't moved Ontario to the right on some issues - particularly on healthcare where he has allowed more private healthcare facilities.

With that said, I hope Poilievre keeps true to his promise of reducing government spending and keeping it under control rather than the mistakes Doug Ford has made, namely running increasing deficits during the first two years of his government.

If Poilievre ends up being 'too right-wing' however, I think there is a risk of a left-wing backlash from the Canadian equivalent of Bernie Sanders-type people, mainly in the NDP. However, I'm not sure such a movement will be that successful - the Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn types have flopped very hard in other English-speaking countries and I don't think Canada would be any different.

US is more skeptical of socialism than Canada so while not sure if Bernie Sanders could win here, he would definitely have better chance than in US. Corbyn agreed although if he faced Truss who knows what would have happened.  Johnson was big on spending and avoided austerity.  He was more a populist than traditional small government type.

This is a little bit complicated because many factors go into this. Support for socialism as an idea is one thing but it's also important to look at specific policies.

US is slightly more sceptical of 'socialism' than Canadians, but it's not a very large difference (36% support for socialism in the US while 42% support for socialism in Canada - although note, how socialism is defined is also relevant. A lot of Canadians/Americans think socialism = universal healthcare, but Canada already has that, so it wouldn't make that much of a difference in terms of voting preferences here as much as it does in the US).

However, Canada is also a lot more pro oil and pro fossil fuel energy than the US, with support for projects like the Keystone XL pipeline being bipartisan (supported by CPC+LPC here), while being opposed by Democrats in the US. One of Bernie Sanders' signature policies was to dismantle the fossil fuel industry and I don't think that would be popular here.

Canadians are also more supportive of free trade (or at least liberalized trade) agreements like NAFTA and TPP than Americans are, and Sanders was very opposed to free trade as well.

There are many factors and policies that go into whether someone with Sanders' economic views would be popular in a country. With that said, I think someone like Sanders is very unlikely to get elected in Canada.

[lfromnj]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/canada-unveils-new-restrictions-on-work-permits-for-international-students-spouses/article_0206b92a-b929-11ee-a3d7-c33ab63f9e70.html
Finally Canada does something about international "students" and puts a cap on them.

Starting on Sept. 1, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced Monday, the federal government will stop issuing postgraduate work permits to international students who graduate from programs provided under so-called Public College-Private Partnerships.

[mileslunn]

Another question is short of a blue wave in Quebec, do people think Tory vote has hit ceiling?  Liberals have not hit floor as possible NDP pulls ahead of them, but I tend to think Tories are at ceiling and can only climb higher if there is a blue wave in Quebec and usually Quebec tends to have big swings during the campaign not before.

Other question, is are Liberals toast or do they have a path back?  Obviously anything is possible in politics and likewise they are obviously underdogs, but I mean barring some extreme surprise is there any realistic chance of them winning?

My view is if Trudeau stays on, chances of beating Tories in seats is very slim but could deny them a majority and maybe much like Sanchez did in Spain stay on by getting and NDP and perhaps BQ support.  But a Trudeau led Liberal party winning most seats let alone a majority seems far fetched.

Now if change leaders it is a higher risk/higher reward.  With a new leader, I absolutely think Liberals can come back and win.  But at same time chances of them falling to third place are also much higher too.  Trudeau has a core base that loves him thus why if you are one who thinks Liberals are going to lose, at least with Trudeau you can form opposition.  But due to baggage, a lot really don't like him, meaning he has a very low ceiling in vote potential.  By contrast Canada has not taken a sharp turn right.  Canada is still broadly a centrist to slightly left of centre country meaning many out there who want Trudeau gone but don't want a big shift right and a new leader might be able to win those back.

Some on right are giddy about this being the big shift right they have always hoped for.  I don't think Poilievre will shift country dramatically to right like Thatcher did in UK or Reagan in US.  Either he will take incrementalist approach like Harper, more populist like Ford or maybe hardline like Harris but gets tossed after one or two terms and Liberals or NDP undo all the changes and party spends a decade or two in the wilderness.  Reagan and Thatcher pulled country rightward as both Labour and Democrats moved to centre and abandoned any idea of going back to way things were before and few like Corbyn who tried to lost badly.  By contrast Harris moved Ontario to right, but OLP over 15 years in power largely undid most of his legacy but gradually.  If like Harper, only moves country right if in power for a very long time and I think nowadays people fatigue of governments a lot faster than in past so chance of Tories lasting over 10 years seems slim.  I actually think we may be entering age where 8 years is maximum shelf life of government.  If like Ford, he will back off more right wing ideas when public backlash to try and stay liked.  However, I think Ford wants to be liked whereas I don't think Poilievre cares if he is hated by large portion of population so he will likely either be like Harris or Harper.  

So question is, have Tories hit ceiling or can they go even higher and how high?

Do Liberals have path back to power both with and without Trudeau?

And will a Poilievre win mean big shift right or will Canada largely remain politically like it is now or even see a left wing backlash?

I think Poilievre will be slightly more like Doug Ford when governing - by that I mean he will be a mix of moderate economic policies (largely in response to public backlash) and moving the country to the economic right. Ford also wanted to slash the size of government when campaigning, but he immediately moderated that stance when he came to power. However, that doesn't mean Ford hasn't moved Ontario to the right on some issues - particularly on healthcare where he has allowed more private healthcare facilities.

With that said, I hope Poilievre keeps true to his promise of reducing government spending and keeping it under control rather than the mistakes Doug Ford has made, namely running increasing deficits during the first two years of his government.

If Poilievre ends up being 'too right-wing' however, I think there is a risk of a left-wing backlash from the Canadian equivalent of Bernie Sanders-type people, mainly in the NDP. However, I'm not sure such a movement will be that successful - the Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn types have flopped very hard in other English-speaking countries and I don't think Canada would be any different.

US is more skeptical of socialism than Canada so while not sure if Bernie Sanders could win here, he would definitely have better chance than in US. Corbyn agreed although if he faced Truss who knows what would have happened.  Johnson was big on spending and avoided austerity.  He was more a populist than traditional small government type.

This is a little bit complicated because many factors go into this. Support for socialism as an idea is one thing but it's also important to look at specific policies.

US is slightly more sceptical of 'socialism' than Canadians, but it's not a very large difference (36% support for socialism in the US while 42% support for socialism in Canada - although note, how socialism is defined is also relevant. A lot of Canadians/Americans think socialism = universal healthcare, but Canada already has that, so it wouldn't make that much of a difference in terms of voting preferences here as much as it does in the US).

However, Canada is also a lot more pro oil and pro fossil fuel energy than the US, with support for projects like the Keystone XL pipeline being bipartisan (supported by CPC+LPC here), while being opposed by Democrats in the US. One of Bernie Sanders' signature policies was to dismantle the fossil fuel industry and I don't think that would be popular here.

Canadians are also more supportive of free trade (or at least liberalized trade) agreements like NAFTA and TPP than Americans are, and Sanders was very opposed to free trade as well.

There are many factors and policies that go into whether someone with Sanders' economic views would be popular in a country. With that said, I think someone like Sanders is very unlikely to get elected in Canada.

I think Canada has just as many types who want to phase our fossil fuels as US maybe more.  I think big reason is more it is generally understood you never as a serious party do something that risks splitting the country.  Shutting down fossil fuels would likely lead to Alberta and Saskatchewan separating while in US states with large fossil fuels are more diversified or too small to stand on own so threat of secession is less. 

[mileslunn]

Liberals seem to want to tie Poilievre to Trump and wondering if others think it will work or not.  I tend to think it actually might.  I don't think you will see a massive swing, but might help push NDP down and maybe lead to a few Red Tories/fatigued Liberals crossing over but I doubt it will erase a 15 point deficit.  At most maybe a 5 point swing.  Main thing though is a lot depends how they play it as people don't have to believe it per se, just must find it plausible for it to work.  But if seems too over the top and people don't even find it plausible it won't work.