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[Good lord Putin got under you guys's skin with the election interference stuff which is about the only reason I can think of why you're being so intense about this]

Crimea+Donetsk+Luhansk going to Russia and Ukraine joining NATO (or some other defensive agreement that has teeth to ensure this doesn't happen again) is the absolute floor. Ideally of course, Russia leaving entirely and Ukraine joining NATO, but that seems unlikely.

One of the few serious posts here and about what I would say.

Good lord Putin got under you guys's skin with the election interference stuff which is about the only reason I can think of why you're being so intense about this. You wuss out in Afghanistan, want Israel to roll over and just let Hamas take over their country, but then you don't want Ukraine to give up one foot of land even if it means WWII casualties. Some of you are even talking about regime change in Russia which presumably means starting WWIII and invading and hoping it goes better than all the other times in history that's been tried.

As I've said before if this is what it looks like when you're on someone's side in a war than you clearly weren't on the US's side against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre Now kindly go shove it

Well the Taliban committed all kinds of atrocities against civilians and it took significantly less loss of life to stop them than it would for the kind of total victory against Russia that all of you seem to want here. Yet most of you were fine letting them take over Afghanistan, it's not logical so have those two positions in concert, there's just some kind of emotional bias here.

Or Afghanistan was a 20 year, several thousand US troops died, trillion dollar project that ended up being in vain as the local population didn’t care if the Taliban was in charge or not vs Ukraine a 3 year war, no U.S. troop death project for a country that actually wants to fight the enemy. But why worry about details when you can do a fake virtual signal like a douche

Well a hell of a lot more than "several thousand people" have gotten killed here and Russia's certainly not worse than the Taliban, so the moral calculus doesn't make any sense. If anything you could argue the other way around: taking relatively light casualties to stop the Taliban in Afghanistan would be worth it but with hundreds of thousands getting killed in Ukraine the war needs to end as quickly as possible to stop loss of life on that scale even if it means a non optimum outcome. Or you could support both or be opposed to both, but not do what you guys are doing.

The rhetoric is just so much tougher here from the left than for any other armed conflict I can think of, usually you just want to roll over and let the aggressor push everyone around because you're so afraid of war.  We have a guy arguing on the second page that the US should be willing to get nuked for Ukraine. So a few thousand soldiers dying to stop the Taliban is too much but hundreds of thousands or even millions dying for Ukraine is ok.

Day 1/3 down for quals and it's not looking good.

Its a 303 map anyways and we are targeting TX and NC just because polls say that we are gonna lose doesn't mean so

[had]

Why do Republicans think polls can't underestimate Democrats?

Of course they can. Sometimes they have, and sometimes they do. But Trump has outperformed his polling in both of his campaigns, including a massive overperformance in his one race against his 2024 opponent, and Biden massively underperformed in his one race (which happened to be against his 2024 opponent).

The polls might favour either one of them. At this point, we can't tell for certain yet. But the history can sometimes be instructive, so if I had to guess, I'd say Trump is likelier to beat his polling than Biden is.

“Because midterms are different and a bunch of low propensity Trump voters who don’t vote in midterms will show up in 2024”

There may be some truth to this but it’s too superficial for my liking

What makes you say that?

I'm willing to bet there's just as many low-propensity anti-Trump voters, so I really don't think this is a good talking point.

The data suggests otherwise. Of course it's possible that Dems will have a turnout advantage with this group, it just seems unlikely. We know the composition of the 2022 electorate was more Dem-favourable than what we all expect the 2024 electorate to look like.

It doesn't necessarily mean that pattern will follow.

You're right, but it is a valid argument that it could happen again (although I do think it's a relatively weak one).

But what are the odds of a genuine split ticket?

Similar things could have been said in 2016, but instead Kander couldn't quite do it, and Toomey got re-elected. Democrats were a shoo-in to take back the Senate it seemed, even as Hillary struggled to lock it all up.

Then Hillary ended up ahead of them.

I think this example is pretty instructive because there were indeed fewer voters intending to split their tickets as the campaign went on, but this was the case because polling overestimated down-ballot Dem candidates rather than underestimating the Dem at the top of the ticket. Same thing could happen again this year, where Biden's unpopularity drag down Brown, Tester, and maybe some other incumbents too.

Of course the opposite could happen, but we have generally tended to witness fewer examples of "reverse coattails" than the traditional presidential coattails bleeding down from the top of the ticket.

By outliving children, I mean living longer than presidential children's lifespans.

The objective is to be the closest to the actual answer.

Also, you can check out a list of presidential children if you want.

Think of it as a brain teaser.

My answer to this question would be 49.

This includes a presidential child who died as a newlywed to the only president of the Confederate States of America (Sarah Knox Taylor), an unofficial acting first lady (Mary Abigail Fillmore), and the only presidential child to die in combat (Quentin Roosevelt).

The actual correct answer, we would actually not know, because it's said that two of Jefferson's children with Sally Hemings died "after" certain years.

I was born on June 17, 1999.

That actually means Natasha Obama and Barron Trump were born after me. However, these would not count as they could potentially live longer than I do, for all we know. It is only dead presidential children we're counting.

Trump is headed for aquittal here.
Even Senator Joe Manchin thinks NY Trail doesn't make sense

https://x.com/mkraju/status/1792629616399544376

So he doesn't give a sh*t about the willful retention of classified documents?

If Biden wins:

Polling was a mess, his win is fueled by a Georgia victory of around 50,000 votes despite talk of a 6% Trump blowout. Trends prevailed and Biden's map had an almost 1 to 1 correlation with Warnock's 2022 regular election numbers. In MI, PA- Biden's numbers around Grand Rapids, Harrisburg gave him a cushion that offset any leftist defections around Philly, Detroit. Trump turnout fell among WWC, dealing a fatal blow in the midwest.

If Trump wins:

-Biden overreliant on the midwest and polls are accurate with a 1-2% Trump win. Biden believes the polls and triages GA only to come within 8,000 votes when all is said and done.

Exit polls showing that most Americans believe the economy is bad and getting worse.

You would be pretty ill advised just looking at Exit Polls. Exits were very bad for Trump in 2020 but as were were headed into the wee hours of the next morning we had a competitive Race on our hands.

President Marcelo's approval numbers have reached their lowest level according to a new poll, just 25%:

Duplimétrica-IPESPE poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Q1: President's approval:

30% Disapprove
25% Approve
44% Average
  1% Undecided

Q2: Do you agree with reparations to former colonies?

74% No
18% Yes
  8% Undecided

Q3: The President's remarks regarding Luís Montenegro and António Costa were?

53% Inadequate
32% Disrespectful
13% Natural and spontaneous
  2% Undecided

Poll conducted bewteen 6 and 13 May 2024. Polled 800 votes. MoE of 3.50%

Trump is headed for aquittal here.
Even Senator Joe Manchin thinks NY Trail doesn't make sense
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1792629616399544376

I thought the further south you went, the further south Trump's odds got, but I guess he got some favorable rulings in Florida.