2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This has to be a narrow Biden edge in AK,MT or SC.

[TheLaRocca]

MS seems like one of the few deep south states Biden does not improve on HRC from.

Why would he? all rural and not much to go up w/rural blacks. Not many suburban or educated whites in MS.

South Carolina and Georgia are def swings to the left.

[TheLaRocca]

Large national leads and one shock polls in TX/GA.

If Biden has these large national leads it should be reflected in TX-GA. No way around it.

[Bootes Void]

I'll say Biden +4 in Texas or Biden narrowly ahead in Alaska, Montana or Missouri. That would truly shock people.

[NOVA Green]

it’s happening
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1315133629337686017?s=21

Uhh... It would have to be a traditionally conceived red state showing a comfortable Biden lead.

AK? MT? SC? TX?

Additionally the language used: "Buckle Up. There's going to be some absolutely devastating poll results released in the next 24-48 hrs that are going to cause a meltdown in Whitehouse & GOP Circles".

So we are 24 Hrs since the initial Tweet which was retweeted, and all we got is the ABC / WaPo Ntl poll (Which likely caused some massive heartburn in Whitehouse & GOP Circles).

Meltdown implies something even more dramatic, or possibly even multiple sources about to dump data simultaneously.

The verbiage: "meltdown in Whitehouse & GOP" appears to imply that it's not just the PRES race, but will also hit down-ballot PUBs hard (Senate Races, US House Races, etc..)

So the language employed would appear to suggest that it is results that are shocking at both a PRES level, plus down-ballot.

Yes--- you got some good guesses going on up there, although maybe KS or MO might be potential wild card contenders...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

it’s happening
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1315133629337686017?s=21

Uhh... It would have to be a traditionally conceived red state showing a comfortable Biden lead.

AK? MT? SC? TX?

So we are 24 Hrs since the initial Tweet which was retweeted, and all we got is the ABC / WaPo Ntl poll (Which likely caused some massive heartburn in Whitehouse & GOP Circles).

What was the initial tweet? I just see the one from Mr Amandi that was tweeted out 5 hours ago

[NOVA Green]

it’s happening
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1315133629337686017?s=21

Uhh... It would have to be a traditionally conceived red state showing a comfortable Biden lead.

AK? MT? SC? TX?

So we are 24 Hrs since the initial Tweet which was retweeted, and all we got is the ABC / WaPo Ntl poll (Which likely caused some massive heartburn in Whitehouse & GOP Circles).

What was the initial tweet? I just see the one from Mr Amandi that was tweeted out 5 hours ago

Apologies... Timestamp on the Tweet from Mr Amandi was 5 hrs ago (Got my wires crossed out West with the Day shift).

Still believe the Armandi tweet was prior to the ABC /WaPo poll.

Honestly hoping that it is a devastating State Poll for both Trump % Pub Incumbent Senators / House members in what they consider to be a "Safe State" or a "Hold State".

[Gass3268]

NYT/Siena polls in Michigan and Wisconsin?

Also Amandi is a Florida guy, so maybe something there?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Who is this guy and why should we believe him?

[Gass3268]

Who is this guy and why should we believe him?

Runs a polling firm out of Miami. Wasserman confirmed that he saw one that supports his statement.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Who is this guy and why should we believe him?

Runs a polling firm out of Miami. Wasserman confirmed that he saw one that supports his statement.

Then he probably talks about a Florida poll. Otherwise how would he know the results from other states and companies.

[Ljube]

ABC/WaPo poll was not particularly devastating.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

ABC/WaPo poll was not particularly devastating.

I'm inclined to agree.

It was terrible for Trump, but it wasn't absolutely earth-shattering and shocking considering what we've seen over the past week (though devastating doesn't necessarily mean shocking).  

[wbrocks67]

assuming its not the Wapo poll since its pretty in line with where they've been at

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given how it's worded would imply its a state with a senate race... So, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Alaska would seem likely possible ones.

Aren't we supposed to get some Alaska polling soon from someone?

NYT/Siena is polling Alaska, but they just started so it can't be that one.

[Crumpets]

D internal house poll showing Trump +7 in WY-AL?
Jeb! 100% nationally?
Poll of Canadians showing 70+% support for annexation of the US?
2024 Republican primary poll with all Trump children showing Tiffany and Eric in the lead?
Poll of White House staffers showing COVID beating Trump 55-43?
Poll of just people named Trump showing Biden up 80-14?

If I keep listing enough troll guesses, one will probably be reasonably close

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like we're all getting our hopes up. Polling has been pretty bad for the GOP this entire cycle. I think we could see some Trump - 12 polls in the Midwest, and some Biden leads in the sunbelt states like TX, but we'll just have to wait and see. As someone else pointed out, this prolly also spells out bad news for the GOP in the senate, so maybe a good poll for Ds in one of the fringe senate seat in red states that haven't gotten much polling.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like we're all getting our hopes up. Polling has been pretty bad for the GOP this entire cycle. I think we could see some Trump - 12 polls in the Midwest, and some Biden leads in the sunbelt states like TX, but we'll just have to wait and see. As someone else pointed out, this prolly also spells out bad news for the GOP in the senate, so maybe a good poll for Ds in one of the fringe senate seat in red states that haven't gotten much polling.

I mean normally I wouldn't put much stock into a lot of these super liberal resistance people on Twitter but if Wasserman is confirming it then that gives credence to it, since he usually bends over backwards to try and be bullish on Trump if he can

[YE]

MS seems like one of the few deep south states Biden does not improve on HRC from.

Why would he? all rural and not much to go up w/rural blacks. Not many suburban or educated whites in MS.

South Carolina and Georgia are def swings to the left.

Higher black turnout would be why he’s a bet to improve some even if it’s not much compared to other states.

[Figueira]

Hoping it's state polls.

[OneJ]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

If Espy is up in Mississippi, Biden could be as well.

Who knows that might be why Biden endorsed Espy not too long ago. /s

MS seems like one of the few deep south states Biden does not improve on HRC from.

Why would he? all rural and not much to go up w/rural blacks. Not many suburban or educated whites in MS.

South Carolina and Georgia are def swings to the left.

Why wouldn't he improve there?

Despite the lack of polling in this state, the polling we do have already indicates a swing against Trump.

Biden can improve upon the black turnout from 2016 which was low and considering that this'll be a high turnout election there's no reason to think black turnout will be lower than in 2016.

And you also have to think about this question: are there areas where Trump can improve in from 2016 that could make the state swing towards him? Not really. He's probably close to maxed out in the more rural white counties of the state. On top of that, there's still plenty of room for him to fall in counties like DeSoto, Madison, Lafayette, Harrison, etc.

[Mr. Illini]

I’ve got my popcorn ready!

[Skye]

Amandi polls Florida so...

[BaldEagle1991]

MS seems like one of the few deep south states Biden does not improve on HRC from.

Why would he? all rural and not much to go up w/rural blacks. Not many suburban or educated whites in MS.

South Carolina and Georgia are def swings to the left.

That and Mississippi is a state that is tailor made for Trump.

[7,052,770]

Mississippi doesn't have the right population mix for a notable trend to Biden. The percentage of whites who are college-educated suburbanites is fairly low.