NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1456382601887895552?s=20

The margin is widening as expected. There's no grounds for a recount. Why is he doing this?

Republicans no longer concede. Conceding defeat is considered weak. Instead the proper course of action is throw a tantrum and yell fraud until the next election.

Unless they win, in which case the vote was obviously free and fair.

He did attend "Stop the Steal" rally after all, so I'm not a bit surprised. Even then his spokeswoman made an excuse that he didn't know it was a "Stop the Steal" rally. (which is obviously an utter joke)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So both VA and NJ will have same margin of ~2.5%?

[BigSerg]

So both VA and NJ will have same margin of ~2.5%?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1456443197899612160?s=20

[Badger]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

Lakewood, huh?  So what did Murphy do to pass off the Orthodox community.

[NOVA Green]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

Lakewood, huh?  So what did Murphy do to pass off the Orthodox community.

Believe that is the 2020 PRES results he was reffing...

We did see some similar results in various other Uber-Orthodox places in 2020 in certain communities in New York for example (But the tab was not 2021 NJ-GOV results).   

[kwabbit]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

Lakewood, huh?  So what did Murphy do to pass off the Orthodox community.

Orthodox Jews are just ultra-R federally. Murphy has actually done well with the Orthodox community of Lakewood, garnering the Vaad's (the rabbinical counsel) endorsement in both of his campaigns. Such what could've been a 20k vote net for Ciattarelli into a 4k net. A relatively important endorsement, worth .5% in margin. This is part of the reason Ocean didn't swing too much from the presidential. Ocean would've been 71-28 instead of 68-32 if the endorsement went the other way. I was surprised when the Vaad endorsed Murphy, given the tensions experienced because of COVID restrictions affecting them practicing their religion.

[wbrocks67]

There's only 3/4K more votes than this right now, does this mean barely any VBMs have been counted in Essex?

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1456415947070316551

[wbrocks67]

Murphy (D) 1,271,272 (50.8%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,214,732 (48.5%)

Murphy lead up to +2.3% (56,540 votes)

[Senator Incitatus]

Big takeaways from this are that the election communications from counties (which should be abolished) was a clusterf*** and that Republicans had a good night, putting them in position to possibly (<20%) take the legislature in 2023.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, while Murphy obviously did much worse than his 2017 performance, this is like 2020 allover again, where the order of the ballots being counted are making this race appear a lot closer than it really was.

A 3-4% win would be a "Squeaker" compared to Murphy's 2017 win, yes, but a lot of the prevailing narrative right now is that he won by the skin of his teeth, which is... not correct, as he'll likely be at least 100K+ votes over Ciattarelli by the end of this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

3-4% isn't really that bad either, historically, especially for a Dem Governor who actually raised taxes on the scale Murphy did. He's also the first NJ Dem Governor altogether to win re-election since...1977?
Sure, expectations were too high, and it almost feels like a loss, but a more realism-grounded perspective would have framed it differently.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1456643550041583623?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So both VA and NJ will have same margin of ~2.5%?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1456443197899612160?s=20

Trafalgar had
Youngkin +2.3%
Murphy +4.2%

Incredible.

[Pollster]

It was always going to be tough to draw a 10-2 map that was waveproof, especially given the trends in South Jersey and the stubborn redness of the northwest. Probably best for D's long-term to go for 9-3, even if in the short-term it makes holding the House marginally more difficult. No reason to make any more incumbents vulnerable than you have to.

The Murphy spook and the Sweeney shocker, happening at the exact time that they did, certainly looks like it could pay dividends for Dems strategically. Always helpful to be reminded of your weak spots going into redistricting.

[2016]

So both VA and NJ will have same margin of ~2.5%?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1456443197899612160?s=20

Trafalgar had
Youngkin +2.3%
Murphy +4.2%

Incredible.

The rest of the remaining Vote, assuming NBC is right and they do have 290K left to count, is all VBM Vote which usually vote disporportionally Democratic meaning Murphys Margin is likely to grow.

[Badger]

It was always going to be tough to draw a 10-2 map that was waveproof, especially given the trends in South Jersey and the stubborn redness of the northwest. Probably best for D's long-term to go for 9-3, even if in the short-term it makes holding the House marginally more difficult. No reason to make any more incumbents vulnerable than you have to.

The Murphy spook and the Sweeney shocker, happening at the exact time that they did, certainly looks like it could pay dividends for Dems strategically. Always helpful to be reminded of your weak spots going into redistricting.

 This. It's important to remember that New Jersey is still one of those States more likely to vote Republican at the state level than at the federal, but but given How If the 7th district is likely to play out next year and the closeness of some other seats, this is probably a good strategy

[wbrocks67]

Update-

Murphy (D) 1,280,877 (50.8%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,218,262 (48.3%)

Murphy lead: +2.5% (62,615 votes)

~90% in

[wbrocks67]

CNN has

Murphy (D) 1,285,289 (50.9%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,219,885 (48.3%)

Murphy +2.6% (65,404 votes)

However, they still have many counties with <95% reporting. Can't tell if it's a reporting error on CNN's site or there's actually quite a bit of VBM left to count.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like there's at least 57,000 votes left to be counted

"Democrats argue that there aren’t enough votes for Ciattarelli to overcome Murphy’s lead.  They estimate 57,400 uncounted provisional ballots and say Murphy has won 68.1% of vote-by-mail ballots that have come in since Wednesday."

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/murphy-campaigns-tells-ciattarelli-to-admit-he-lost/

[Roll Roons]

I would actually expect provisionals to lean slightly Republican. But yeah, Jack won't be making up that gap.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I doubt Ciatarelli has a chance, but I also don't blame him for not conceding yet. He's not alleging a stolen election - he's just not conceding because not only aren't all the votes counted, no one can even agree on how many votes are left! NJ gonna NJ.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this is a mess. There's apparently tens of thousands of ballots left to count and New Jersey's count hasn't moved in days now.

[Senator Incitatus]

Does anyone have preliminary results by congressional district?

Curious as to the margin in Pascrell's district given that Biden "only" won it by 25 (versus 31 for Clinton, despite beating her statewide margin by a few points) and several Hispanic towns moved strongly toward Ciattarelli. Could be a tail-end seat (as in, the closest in the entire country) in a massive national wave if trends persist.

[wbrocks67]

CNN has

Murphy (D) 1,285,289 (50.9%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,219,885 (48.3%)

Murphy +2.6% (65,404 votes)

However, they still have many counties with <95% reporting. Can't tell if it's a reporting error on CNN's site or there's actually quite a bit of VBM left to count.

A few more votes today, increasing Murphy lead to +2.7%

Murphy (D) 1,288,462 (51.0%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,220,907 (48.3%)

This batch went Murphy 3,173 / Ciatarelli 1,022

Who knows if its VBM or provisional though

[Roll Roons]

I think VBM. They won't start counting provisionals until all VBM ballots are received, and today was the deadline.