2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the minimum R PVI I should aim for in Texas with 2016/2020 data? I built my map with 2012/2016 and just updated to 2020 results, ouch.

R+8 or so? I'm not entirely sure.
I'll be making my own fresh R gerry to find out what's workable and what's not.

I haven't tried to eliminate the 4th D in Harris (Torie's precedent notwithstanding) but to keep the TX-32, 3, and 24 in the 8-10 range for PVI I had to send TX-32 from the Park cities up to all of Grayson County and baconstrip the most Dem parts of Collin County into TX-4.

I'm inclined to just do a fourth Dem pack in the Metroplex.

Yeah, the trends there don't look good for GOPers and it's very likely much safer over the course of the decade to just concede a 4th seat in DFW.

[Coastal Elitist]

Anyone else having problems merely loading up a Texas map?

It loads, but when I try to make changes it won't save and then crashes. They really shouldn't have announced it to everyone. The site is being overwhelmed.

[Brittain33]

Seems to me San Antonio is even more underpopulated than the Houston or Dallas packs! 

Yes, I experienced this too, thank you for reminding me.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It works for me, but that might be because I saw it pretty much as soon as it was announced and loaded the data files for Texas in particular.

The single most striking thing so far to me is that a "natural" compact Congressional district in Collin County (basically everything southwest of McKinney) is not only Biden +5, but also majority-minority - even with including Allen.

Remarkable how much that area (and Texas suburbs generally) have changed even in just the last 10 years.

I think the TX State House map may end up being in some ways the most interesting and important part of this redistricting cycle. With all the population loss in rural areas as well, not only have areas such as Collin County swung and changed dramatically, but they will also be gaining seats removed from safe R rural areas. If those trends are anything more than purely a reaction to Trump and Trump alone, it should be pretty tough for the GOP to gerrymander a safe sustainable state legislative majority. It's easier to gerrymander Congressional districts due to their larger size.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much time will it be until Texas maps will actually be able to be made?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

How much time will it be until Texas maps will actually be able to be made?

If you are having trouble getting the website to load, try setting an alarm clock for 3-4 AM tonight or so, and probably there will be less people trying to load the data then

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much time will it be until Texas maps will actually be able to be made?

If you are having trouble getting the website to load, try setting an alarm clock for 3-4 AM tonight or so, and probably there will be less people trying to load the data then

thanks for the info.

[Brittain33]

I've been playing around with DFW with 4 Dem districts (or 3+1 competitive) while keeping large cities whole, if possible, and trying to keep R districts performing. All PVIs are 2016/20 and VAP is W/H/B/A.

This is just what I did last night so I am sure the map can be improved either with different criteria for districts, more fine-tuning between districts, or being willing to do ugly tendrils with TX-4. I didn't clean up all the stray bits as you can see.

I make no claim whether Republicans would pursue this strategy. It's just what I wanted to draw. I found respecting city boundaries was a lot more satisfying than maximizing and smoothing out R performance across abstract shapes.






TX-3 includes McKinney, Allen, and 1/3 of Garland. R+12, 56/18/12/12

TX-5 still anchors on Mesquite and includes a small part of Garland before heading out into the rurals. I don't see how I can use it to help TX-3 any more. A wasteful R+19, 55/24/16/3

TX-6 includes most of Arlington, cedes African-American parts of Grand Prairie to TX-30, and skirts Fort Worth to take in new conservative turf in SW Tarrant. Southern counties not shown. R+11, 53/21/18/6

TX-12 remains Fort Worth-based and I unpacked it some to make TX-24 and TX-6 more Republican. I don't know if it can offer any more help. R+15, 60/21/10/5.

TX-24 combines Republican suburbs in NE Tarrant with Denton and places in between. Keeping Denton whole is why TX-26 is a horseshoe. R+12, 64/16/8/9

TX-26 includes Frisco, Lewisville, and carves out R neighborhoods in Plano. I don't like the way it looks either. R+9 (!), 54/17/12/15

TX-32 takes in the Park cities, Richardson, the majority of Plano, 1/3 of Garland, and the northern wedge of Dallas. Boundary with TX-37 was determined by trying to follow city boundaries. If I keep working on this, I'll refine 32 to be as R as possible under the circumstances since I go to the trouble to include the Park cities. D+1, 48/21/12/17

[Brittain33]

Michael Burgess still lives in TX-26 (Lewisville). Beth Van Duyne, sadly, is drawn out of her district (Irving), as is Van Taylor (Plano). If you want to keep both Irving and at least part of Plano in solid Republican districts, that would explain why there won't be a 4th Dem district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a TX R gerry on 2020 numbers:







https://davesredistricting.org/join/2db18cce-c8c3-429e-b464-5982772ccff9

Despite San Antonio's underperformance, drawing to Hispanic VRA districts within Bexar is pretty easy and will likely be required.

Austin's underperformance means working with 1 sink becomes a bit easier. However, having 1 Austin sink means Houston needs 4 D seats to be effective and sustainable gerrymander. If you take out a 4th seat from Houston then Austin needs 4 seats to free up some room for "Pizzaing" of western Houston.

Creating 2 Hispanic seats in Houston got a lot easier now that the new data is out.

I'm actually happy with how central Texas turned out in my map; it's pretty clean but also effective.

Teh 2 biggest questions for the GOP IMO are what to do with RGV and Dallas.

In RGV, it's a guessing game of trends throughout the decade. It's really hard to create true Dem sinks in South TX as so many precincts went to Biden by 60-40ish margins. In my map, 15 might draw a challenge of being a Hispanic pack, however, the GOP could argue in order to avoid a pack is actually pretty difficult at this point, and 15 better represents COIs. 28 tries to combine the rest of Hidalgo, alongside Laredo and Corpus Christi; this is because I think it's unlikely the GOP is going to start outright winning these urban counties anytime soon whereas many of the rural Hispanic counties that went for Biden in 2020 could be more feasible flips since they're more culturally atune to R politics, and had bigger swings rightwards in 2020.

Another problem for the GOP in RGV is the ambiguity of what future trends will be after 2020. If they're really confident and think there gains will continue, they could try Trump + 8/10 districts but risk a huge backfire if 2020 turns out to be an exception. On the flipside, if RGV continues to go hard right, being too conservative with the gerrymander could mean Dems win 1 or 2 more seats than they "should" by the end of the decade (think OH-13 vibes or the current RGV map and how all 3 districts intended to be Dem sinks only narrowly went to Biden).

There's quite a lot of ambiguity around the VRA rules in a RGV-esk situation so I expect the GOP to try to push the boundaries a bit to see what they can get away with.

Another question is Dallas. You can get away with only seats but the map looks horrendous. The big issue for the GOP is north Dallas which has had a consistant hard D trend and is basically a sprawling suburb of 50-50 precincts meaning it's hard to make districts that lean heavily either way. Adding a 4th D sink actually doesn't help shore up the map as much as one'd expect for that reason; it's actually difficult to make a true D pack. It'll be interesting to see what the GOP does.

My map is about 23.90R-14.10D from the current 19.82R-16.18D map, meaning Ds would loose ~2 seats while Rs would gain ~4. This map's competitiveness score would be 8.83, down from the current 31.86 score. This map would have a bias of 7.77 towards R, flipping the current bias of 7.91 towards Dems on it's head. Really goes to show how bad geography is for Rs in TX.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

[Non Swing Voter]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

Why?

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

Why?

Simplest answer is population growth and Democratic trends, both the DFW metro and Austin are growing in population and trending D and each is currently supporting several swing seats. Adding New Democratic sinks (technically 2 in DFW, since I converted 32 to a D sink) helps to shore up most of the seats, but again trends in the TX metro are very ominous, and every time I've drawn a TX map I end up with several seats vulnerable to trends, because simply the state is trending blue, Democrats have a geography advantage, and Republicans hold way more seats than they should. Eventually, there's a point where overcoming trends and geography becomes too much.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

Why?

Simplest answer is population growth and Democratic trends, both the DFW metro and Austin are growing in population and trending D and each is currently supporting several swing seats. Adding New Democratic sinks (technically 2 in DFW, since I converted 32 to a D sink) helps to shore up most of the seats, but again trends in the TX metro are very ominous, and every time I've drawn a TX map I end up with several seats vulnerable to trends, because simply the state is trending blue, Democrats have a geography advantage, and Republicans hold way more seats than they should. Eventually, there's a point where overcoming trends and geography becomes too much.

Dealing with North Dallas feels absolutely impossible; you either need an absolutely insane pizza or a very risky map that cedes a 4th seat to Ds.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

Why?

Simplest answer is population growth and Democratic trends, both the DFW metro and Austin are growing in population and trending D and each is currently supporting several swing seats. Adding New Democratic sinks (technically 2 in DFW, since I converted 32 to a D sink) helps to shore up most of the seats, but again trends in the TX metro are very ominous, and every time I've drawn a TX map I end up with several seats vulnerable to trends, because simply the state is trending blue, Democrats have a geography advantage, and Republicans hold way more seats than they should. Eventually, there's a point where overcoming trends and geography becomes too much.

Dealing with North Dallas feels absolutely impossible; you either need an absolutely insane pizza or a very risky map that cedes a 4th seat to Ds.

True, but I guess this is good news for us, it seems like the Republicans can only do so much, and I have my suspicions that several incumbents will not be happy about being randomly spaghettied into unfamiliar territory. If we could net seats out of the Texas redraw that would be huge, as it means Republicans did not net seats out of the largest state that they control.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

Why?

Simplest answer is population growth and Democratic trends, both the DFW metro and Austin are growing in population and trending D and each is currently supporting several swing seats. Adding New Democratic sinks (technically 2 in DFW, since I converted 32 to a D sink) helps to shore up most of the seats, but again trends in the TX metro are very ominous, and every time I've drawn a TX map I end up with several seats vulnerable to trends, because simply the state is trending blue, Democrats have a geography advantage, and Republicans hold way more seats than they should. Eventually, there's a point where overcoming trends and geography becomes too much.

Dealing with North Dallas feels absolutely impossible; you either need an absolutely insane pizza or a very risky map that cedes a 4th seat to Ds.

True, but I guess this is good news for us, it seems like the Republicans can only do so much, and I have my suspicions that several incumbents will not be happy about being randomly spaghettied into unfamiliar territory. If we could net seats out of the Texas redraw that would be huge, as it means Republicans did not net seats out of the largest state that they control.

Ye I predict TX will be a net wash; a slight GOP gain in the sense they shore up a lot of seats but really don't gain any seats of their own. Ofc shoring up all these swing seats is a huge win for them but it doesn't gain them much.

I think the GOP's single biggest weapon is FL in the sense as that's the state where they have potential to gain the most seats. After that it's really gonna be a game of squeezing one here and there outta places like NC/GA/MO/IN ect. I think people overstate the GOP's redistricting advantage as the national map is already skewed towards them. Also; many of the states where the GOP controls the process doesn't mean much because there isn't much to do (think WV, AR, MS ect).

Don't get me wrong, the national map is still gonna be skewed towards the GOP, but I think on net it won't look all that different than the current picture; just fewer competative seats overall nationally.

[Coastal Elitist]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

Simple spaghettimanders are not realistic, I try to keep at least a significant amount of each incumbent's seat in the district. 26-12 may be doable now, but it could fall apart in 2024, 2026, etc.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

I would say a 26-12 is difficult on 2020 numbers, at least one that isn't blatantly illegal and one that would survive at least most of the decade.

A 26-12 requires Austin to only have 1 sink while Houston gets 3, and it's really hard to pull off both since they both rely on rural areas between them to dilute suburbs outside the sinks.

I remember Torie made a relatively "clean"26-12 a while back but even then Houston has 2 marginal seats in the West that could easily fall.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

I would say a 26-12 is difficult on 2020 numbers, at least one that isn't blatantly illegal and one that would survive at least most of the decade.

A 26-12 requires Austin to only have 1 sink while Houston gets 3, and it's really hard to pull off both since they both rely on rural areas between them to dilute suburbs outside the sinks.

I remember Torie made a relatively "clean"26-12 a while back but even then Houston has 2 marginal seats in the West that could easily fall.

Well I took a lot at RRH this afternoon to see what some of these 26-12 maps entail and they classify Trump+14 seats in the Metroplex as Safe R, so yeah they're dummymanders.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

I would say a 26-12 is difficult on 2020 numbers, at least one that isn't blatantly illegal and one that would survive at least most of the decade.

A 26-12 requires Austin to only have 1 sink while Houston gets 3, and it's really hard to pull off both since they both rely on rural areas between them to dilute suburbs outside the sinks.

I remember Torie made a relatively "clean"26-12 a while back but even then Houston has 2 marginal seats in the West that could easily fall.

Well I took a lot at RRH this afternoon to see what some of these 26-12 maps entail and they classify Trump+14 seats in the Metroplex as Safe R, so yeah they're dummymanders.

Trump+14 would hold for at least 3/5 elections, so I don't think it's that simple.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to make a 19R-19D Congressional map.

34 Minority opportunity seats, 14 Hispanic seats, and 2 Black seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/548e4c62-b64d-49d2-bf98-0dc9bd17cbbf

[Nyvin]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

I would say a 26-12 is difficult on 2020 numbers, at least one that isn't blatantly illegal and one that would survive at least most of the decade.

A 26-12 requires Austin to only have 1 sink while Houston gets 3, and it's really hard to pull off both since they both rely on rural areas between them to dilute suburbs outside the sinks.

I remember Torie made a relatively "clean"26-12 a while back but even then Houston has 2 marginal seats in the West that could easily fall.

Well I took a lot at RRH this afternoon to see what some of these 26-12 maps entail and they classify Trump+14 seats in the Metroplex as Safe R, so yeah they're dummymanders.

Trump+14 would hold for at least 3/5 elections, so I don't think it's that simple.

TX-7 was Romney+21.3 in 2012,  Clinton won it in 2016.   I don't think Trump+14 is as strong as you think in a fast growing state like Texas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

I would say a 26-12 is difficult on 2020 numbers, at least one that isn't blatantly illegal and one that would survive at least most of the decade.

A 26-12 requires Austin to only have 1 sink while Houston gets 3, and it's really hard to pull off both since they both rely on rural areas between them to dilute suburbs outside the sinks.

I remember Torie made a relatively "clean"26-12 a while back but even then Houston has 2 marginal seats in the West that could easily fall.

Well I took a lot at RRH this afternoon to see what some of these 26-12 maps entail and they classify Trump+14 seats in the Metroplex as Safe R, so yeah they're dummymanders.

Trump+14 would hold for at least 3/5 elections, so I don't think it's that simple.

TX-7 was Romney+21.3 in 2012,  Clinton won it in 2016.   I don't think Trump+14 is as strong as you think in a fast growing state like Texas.

Trump+14 in 2020 numbers? Absolutely. Unless you think another 2012>2016 swing is in on the cards in 2024.
For various reasons I doubt such a swing can be repeated again in recent memory.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

I would say a 26-12 is difficult on 2020 numbers, at least one that isn't blatantly illegal and one that would survive at least most of the decade.

A 26-12 requires Austin to only have 1 sink while Houston gets 3, and it's really hard to pull off both since they both rely on rural areas between them to dilute suburbs outside the sinks.

I remember Torie made a relatively "clean"26-12 a while back but even then Houston has 2 marginal seats in the West that could easily fall.

Well I took a lot at RRH this afternoon to see what some of these 26-12 maps entail and they classify Trump+14 seats in the Metroplex as Safe R, so yeah they're dummymanders.

Trump+14 would hold for at least 3/5 elections, so I don't think it's that simple.

TX-7 was Romney+21.3 in 2012,  Clinton won it in 2016.   I don't think Trump+14 is as strong as you think in a fast growing state like Texas.

Trump+14 in 2020 numbers? Absolutely. Unless you think another 2012>2016 swing is in on the cards in 2024.
For various reasons I doubt such a swing can be repeated again in recent memory.

I was referring particularly to the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, where you saw smaller, but still sizable swings from 2016>2020, swings that absolutely could be replicated.