2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Torie]

The one-legged two humped camel and the bunny rabbit. 

[S019]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

[Torie]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

Thanks. We will just have to wait. With all the slicing and dicing on the map, doing it manually would take weeks!

[Coastal Elitist]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

The new one works with 2020

[S019]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

The new one works with 2020

Link please?

I have a 2020 map that I want to test

[S019]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

The new one works with 2020

Link please?

I have a 2020 map that I want to test

Does this work? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VW6D7rLQ6YQEoeDXollMKjGwZDUTAE7kBLYdJ3Xvcas/edit#gid=281065170

It says I need access

[Coastal Elitist]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

The new one works with 2020

Link please?

I have a 2020 map that I want to test

Does this work? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VW6D7rLQ6YQEoeDXollMKjGwZDUTAE7kBLYdJ3Xvcas/edit#gid=281065170

It says I need access

You can't download it or make a copy

[S019]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

The new one works with 2020

Link please?

I have a 2020 map that I want to test

Does this work? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VW6D7rLQ6YQEoeDXollMKjGwZDUTAE7kBLYdJ3Xvcas/edit#gid=281065170

It says I need access

You can't download it or make a copy

Nope, I need access to see it

[Coastal Elitist]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

The new one works with 2020

Link please?

I have a 2020 map that I want to test

Does this work? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VW6D7rLQ6YQEoeDXollMKjGwZDUTAE7kBLYdJ3Xvcas/edit#gid=281065170

It says I need access

You can't download it or make a copy

Nope, I need access to see it

Try this: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ecUNOgoBDYtHnehqCwEmmgYXO_Daq3yG/view?usp=sharing

[S019]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

It gives you O'Rourke/Cruz data, but it doesn't work with 2020 precincts afaik

The new one works with 2020

Link please?

I have a 2020 map that I want to test

Does this work? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VW6D7rLQ6YQEoeDXollMKjGwZDUTAE7kBLYdJ3Xvcas/edit#gid=281065170

It says I need access

You can't download it or make a copy

Nope, I need access to see it

Try this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1smZ-DZc4u5cgjX_X_Rc07XB3m8J3LhhIcA9kvSk_bdw/edit#gid=281065170

Yeah this works, thanks

[I’m not Stu]

Is it easy to create two fairly compact 50+% Hispanic CVAP districts in Houston?

[S019]

Is it easy to create two fairly compact 50+% Hispanic CVAP districts in Houston?

Possibly, but they probably wouldn't perform, you need that weird shape to make a performing seat

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it easy to create two fairly compact 50+% Hispanic CVAP districts in Houston?

With or without a separate black district?

[I’m not Stu]

Is it easy to create two fairly compact 50+% Hispanic CVAP districts in Houston?

With or without a separate black district?

With one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Getting 2 majority Latino CVAP seats in Houston is hard, let alone 2 performing Latino seats
there, or 2 compact majority Latino CVAP ones.
It'd be easier if there was another district, but it is what it is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it easy to create two fairly compact 50+% Hispanic CVAP districts in Houston?

With or without a separate black district?

With one.

Does this qualify?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f836a004-6377-4eee-9f44-fae59e10ef5c

[Torie]

Is it easy to create two fairly compact 50+% Hispanic CVAP districts in Houston?

With or without a separate black district?

With one.

Does this qualify?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f836a004-6377-4eee-9f44-fae59e10ef5c

It might (it meets my metric anyway of performing in TX anyway - 45%+ HCVAP with HCVAP's at least twice the number of BCVAP's), and if those HCVAP numbers hold, it may well cost the Pubs a seat since the risk of losing a VRA lawsuit is substantial. Intra-county erosity and municipal chops like that do not slow down the courts much, particularly if the alternative is a partisan slice and dice in the area. Good catch Tim. It is not as solid as the Holder lawsuit in Alabama, but if the numbers the court uses have higher percentages than what is in the DRA (very possible), the lawsuit's merit should match Holder's. The only out is potentially trying to replace the non Dem VRA CD in Harris with the second Hispanic CD, but I don't think the numbers are there. The one remaining caveat is to take a look at the 2020 Trump numbers and see if Hispanics on the east side of the county trended enough Pub to make the CD iffy as a performing Hispanic CD for the Dems. I tend to doubt that too.

If the HCVAP percentages go up enough in this area, as they might well, so that this blob is over 50% HCVAP, the below might be the Pubs' best option, because the shape and nesting along the county lines,  can be defended as not gerrymandered. Lower than 50%, no dice, because then the shortfall can then will be viewed as  the difference between performing (in this case, Hispanic Democrats will win both the primary and general), and not performing (Democrats might lose). Once you get over 50% HCVAP without gerrymandering, then if the Dems lose, it is due to too many Hispanic Pubs, and/or relatively low Hispanic turnout. In that case, the "conservative" SCOTUS is reasonably likely to rule against the VRA litigant, in essence ruling, "too bad, if Hispanics choose not to vote, or Hispanics are too divided, that is the Democrats' problem, not ours."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And here for something completely different:
I tried to make a map ignoring the VRA and partisanship entirely. I mainly used roads, straight lines, municipal lines, and rivers to divide counties, and tried to keep counties whole whenever practical. I also segregated urban and rural.
The above map is the result. There are 20 Trump districts and 18 Clinton districts. Median districts are TX-24 (Southwest Tarrant, Trump+4) and TX-3 (most of Collin, Trump+10). Average them out and the pro-D bias is about 2 points.
The gap is probably larger under 2020 numbers.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/54a1c5fb-9d82-4a77-8422-b66066c4336e

[S019]

Thanks to TPH, I was able to run 2020/2018 numbers on a slightly modified version of my map (removed precinct splits), the results shocked me:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hUAd0YVAqLwOWTwaroaZmKtOpAeQZXCp0wI0KiEF2ZQ/edit?usp=sharing

Williams and Roy go to basically tossups, McCaul and Van Taylor probably become mid decade victims.

[Torie]

In other news, the yellow rabbit has now turned into a yellow chicken. I think I have now managed to break every Muon2 rule that exists, as well as a couple of my own codicils thereto and now accept my accolades. The only rules obeyed are legal ones - you know like that darn VRA. Usually it favors the Pubs, but not in Harris County!





And here is something far less insane looking where the Pubs draw TX-07 as lean Dem, but potentially competitive if higher SES urban educated white voters snap back to the GOP, and recover from their Trump low with them. Gingles triggering a need for an additional performing Hispanic CD in Harris County really hurts them this time. Alternatively they could take the risk of losing a VRA lawsuit to see what the reconstituted SCOTUS does, and redraw if they lose. Another potentiality is that if the CVAP figures which the Courts decide to use in various cases have higher percentage numbers for HCVAP's, it may allow them to draw two performing Hispanic CD's with more favorable lines for them than what the DRA figures currently use make possible.

[S019]

In other news, the yellow rabbit has now turned into a yellow chicken. I think I have now managed to break every Muon2 rule that exists, as well as a couple of my own codicils thereto and now accept my accolades. The only rules obeyed are legal ones - you know like that darn VRA. Usually it favors the Pubs, but not in Harris County!





And here is something far less insane looking where the Pubs draw TX-07 as lean Dem, but potentially competitive if higher SES urban educated white voters snap back to the GOP, and recover from their Trump low with them. Gingles triggering a need for an additional performing Hispanic CD in Harris County really hurts them this time. Alternatively they could take the risk of losing a VRA lawsuit to see what the reconstituted SCOTUS does, and redraw if they lose. Another potentiality is that if the CVAP figures which the Courts decide to use in various cases have higher percentage numbers for HCVAP's, it may allow them to draw two performing Hispanic CD's with more favorable lines for them than what the DRA figures currently use make possible.

Brian Babin lives in Tyler County, both of these maps draw him out. Also Crenshaw is going to be very vulnerable to a primary given basically all of his seat is new territory. Also I'm pretty sure that the 9th is protected, since AA punch above their weight in primaries, but it doesn't look like it was preserved in a way that would ensure VRA compliance.

[Torie]

Where a seat is safe Dem, my metric for a performing Hispanic CD is approximately at least 45% HVCAP, with that percentage being twice as high as the BCVAP. That where there is a material GOP minority at least where a substantial percentage of the whites will not vote in a Dem primary, should have the majority of the voters in a Dem primary be Hispanic.

Here is another Houston art study where two CD’s surround seven, that makes TX-07 around a toss-up.  I find this one so visually appealing to the eye that I might have it framed. 



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4992c870-f512-4f36-ad72-392d3db026b0

[Torie]

In playing around with the border land between TX-07 and TX-18, and looking at the NYT interactive map link below, I find that the pattern of Hispanics not voting before voting for Trump 2020, even as high SES whites fled. Thus, I suspect by doing what I did, and in heavily Dem precincts along the border land that are heavily Hispanic with relatively few blacks while excluding those with a higher black percentage and some high SES white precincts that are not so Democratic, is probably the way to maximize the Trump 2020 percentage. I suspect the Trump 2020 numbers are quite close to the Trump 2020 numbers (he may have even carried it), and the PVI of TX-07 drawn this way may have moved the PVI from the existing PVI of 1% D to maybe 2% R.

Without the Trump 2020 numbers in the DRA, going for heavily Hispanic precincts with a very low percentage turnout of HCVAP’s to include in districts targeting for the GOP in preference to other 2016 heavily Dem precincts, seems to be a winning strategy for the Pubs in many areas, including in some big cities such as Houston.




https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html

Another lacunae, is that inasmuch as one can draw two 50%+ HCVAP CD's in the Houston area while one cannot draw two 50%+ BCVAP CD's, per Gingles, one of the performing black CD's there needs to be converted to a performing Hispanic CD. The odd person out whose district is chopped to bits is not Al Green, whose current TX-09 is not mostly covered by TX-18, but Shelia Jackson Lee, who has some of the territory in the redrawn TX-18, but not nearly as much as Al Green does in his TX-09. I doubt she can beat an Hispanic in a Dem primary in the redrawn TX-09. I think I will switch the numbers of the CD's to avoid confusion, along with TX-08 and YX-10 exchanging numbers.

And then I revised the  map yet again that reflects research as to where Pub incumbents live (in CD's that are potentially in play in the Austin area anyway), and the ones who are likely to run for reelection and I researched that too, and their needs – a mix of reality and effectiveness). I would not be that surprised if a map similar to this is actually adopted.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/85865b26-bd52-44ae-bd4a-095c122a8396

[Torie]

Mirror, mirror on the wall, bet on a high SES white snap back, or the Hispanic/Asian Pub trends, what is the best Pubmander strategy of them all? This map reflects the diversified approach. A little of this, a little of that, but not too much of either. The blue to red hue map is the NYT precinct swing map, which depicts the rather wild and quite surprising shifts. One would never guess that Harris County trended blue if one was unaware that the turnout among high SES WCVAP's is massively higher in the region than that of low SES persons of color, particularly HCVAP's. Will that continue going forward? It did pretty much from 2016 to 2020. The turnout percentage increase seems sluggish with that cohort of eligible voters - up but by no means dramatically.

Clairvoyance is in short supply, at least in my brain. One wild card is to what degree inflation will ramp up. It seems to be ready to reignite in a substantial way at least in some sectors. In fact, it already has in some sectors at least. The cost of shipping and construction materials has close to doubled in the last few months it seems. Whether a resolution of the supply chain choke points will resolve that or not I don’t know, given all the “free” cash floating around financed by government debt. The nexus of macroeconomics and Pubmandering writ large.

What is your crystal ball revealing to you, or did you misplace it?



I hope with some help to have this map with the 2020 POTUS election figures in due course. In the meantime, my metrics are as follows:

I. Minimize VRA risk

1. If a majority compact BCVAP or HCVAP CD can be drawn that is "compact," then a performing CD for that minority must be drawn, per Gingles.

2. I use a broad definition of what is "compact" for purposes of the Gingles trigger test.

3. Minority CD's should not look gerrymandered except to the extent necessary to make them performing.

4. For Hispanic performing CD's, in Texas for Demcroactic Hispanic CD's, that in practice means keeping the BCVAP percentage down. The metric I use is that the HCVAP must be at least 45%, and at least twice as much as the BCVAP, although if the HCVAP is over 50%, there might be a bit of wiggle room on the at least twice as high as the BCVAP percentage metric. I do not count on a 50%+ HCVAP being a safe harbor even if the CD is not in fact a performing Hispanic CD due to higher percentages of HCVAP's not voting in a Dem primary, either because they do not vote at all, or vote in GOP primaries in higher percentages.

II. Avoid county and municipal splits to the extent possible, without materially degrading the efficacy of the gerrymander, and in general make the map look as "attractive as possible consistent with such efficacy.

III. Mimimize dummymander potential.

This one is tricky in Texas. Will higher income and educated urban whites continue trending to the Dems, or even snap back, and will the Hispanic trend to the GOP hold or continue, and how about the turnout among HCVAP's? If the more upscale white trends continue, as opposed to stopping, much less a snap back, while the Hispanic trends are but an ephemeral fling, or they start voting in much higher percentages, and not for the GOP, then or course the map will have some dummymander potential. Ultimately, one cannot plan on worse case scenarios. If the Pubs lose their gains with persons of color, and keep tanking with Pubs, or former Pubs, who disdain Trump, then the Pubs are going to cease being competitive anyway in general. Black turnout in many places in Texas in 2020 was tepid too btw.

The idea is to diversify the risk, and not put the eggs all in one ethnic basket, and try to pad CD's with more Pubs where the trends look most ominous. A lot will depend on events of course, that are hard to predict. A ramp up in inflation I think would tend to facilitate a snap back, since I suspect many of the more upscale white voters tend to be fiscally cautious, and don't like unpleasant surprises, which among other things can be bad for business. But nobody knows for sure what is in store on the macro-economic level. I at least certainly don't.

IV. Minimize CD's that have such a diversity in Pub ranks, that the risk is that they will nominate someone who is an underpeformer, either due to incompetence, or because it is impossible within the Pub coalition within a CD to avoid annoying one group or the other.

V.  Take cognizance of the needs of Pub incumbents, and avoid a situation where their CD has a group of voters in it where they will substantially underperform, to the point of putting the CD in play over time. That is a problem in the Austin area in particular. Sessions and Cloud need to be kept out of the zone for example.

VI. Number CD's so that Pub incumbents keep their same CD number if reasonably possible.

[jimrtex]

Mirror, mirror on the wall, bet on a high SES white snap back, or the Hispanic/Asian Pub trends, what is the best Pubmander strategy of them all? This map reflects the diversified approach. A little of this, a little of that, but not too much of either. The blue to red hue map is the NYT precinct swing map, which depicts the rather wild and quite surprising shifts. One would never guess that Harris County trended blue if one was unaware that the turnout among high SES WCVAP's is massively higher in the region than that of low SES persons of color, particularly HCVAP's. Will that continue going forward? It did pretty much from 2016 to 2020. The turnout percentage increase seems sluggish with that cohort of eligible voters - up but by no means dramatically.

Clairvoyance is in short supply, at least in my brain. One wild card is to what degree inflation will ramp up. It seems to be ready to reignite in a substantial way at least in some sectors. In fact, it already has in some sectors at least. The cost of shipping and construction materials has close to doubled in the last few months it seems. Whether a resolution of the supply chain choke points will resolve that or not I don’t know, given all the “free” cash floating around financed by government debt. The nexus of macroeconomics and Pubmandering writ large.

What is your crystal ball revealing to you, or did you misplace it?



I hope with some help to have this map with the 2020 POTUS election figures in due course. In the meantime, my metrics are as follows:

I. Minimize VRA risk

1. If a majority compact BCVAP or HCVAP CD can be drawn that is "compact," then a performing CD for that minority must be drawn, per Gingles.

2. I use a broad definition of what is "compact" for purposes of the Gingles trigger test.

3. Minority CD's should not look gerrymandered except to the extent necessary to make them performing.

4. For Hispanic performing CD's, in Texas for Demcroactic Hispanic CD's, that in practice means keeping the BCVAP percentage down. The metric I use is that the HCVAP must be at least 45%, and at least twice as much as the BCVAP, although if the HCVAP is over 50%, there might be a bit of wiggle room on the at least twice as high as the BCVAP percentage metric. I do not count on a 50%+ HCVAP being a safe harbor even if the CD is not in fact a performing Hispanic CD due to higher percentages of HCVAP's not voting in a Dem primary, either because they do not vote at all, or vote in GOP primaries in higher percentages.

II. Avoid county and municipal splits to the extent possible, without materially degrading the efficacy of the gerrymander, and in general make the map look as "attractive as possible consistent with such efficacy.

III. Mimimize dummymander potential.

This one is tricky in Texas. Will higher income and educated urban whites continue trending to the Dems, or even snap back, and will the Hispanic trend to the GOP hold or continue, and how about the turnout among HCVAP's? If the more upscale white trends continue, as opposed to stopping, much less a snap back, while the Hispanic trends are but an ephemeral fling, or they start voting in much higher percentages, and not for the GOP, then or course the map will have some dummymander potential. Ultimately, one cannot plan on worse case scenarios. If the Pubs lose their gains with persons of color, and keep tanking with Pubs, or former Pubs, who disdain Trump, then the Pubs are going to cease being competitive anyway in general. Black turnout in many places in Texas in 2020 was tepid too btw.

The idea is to diversify the risk, and not put the eggs all in one ethnic basket, and try to pad CD's with more Pubs where the trends look most ominous. A lot will depend on events of course, that are hard to predict. A ramp up in inflation I think would tend to facilitate a snap back, since I suspect many of the more upscale white voters tend to be fiscally cautious, and don't like unpleasant surprises, which among other things can be bad for business. But nobody knows for sure what is in store on the macro-economic level. I at least certainly don't.

IV. Minimize CD's that have such a diversity in Pub ranks, that the risk is that they will nominate someone who is an underpeformer, either due to incompetence, or because it is impossible within the Pub coalition within a CD to avoid annoying one group or the other.

V.  Take cognizance of the needs of Pub incumbents, and avoid a situation where their CD has a group of voters in it where they will substantially underperform, to the point of putting the CD in play over time. That is a problem in the Austin area in particular. Sessions and Cloud need to be kept out of the zone for example.

VI. Number CD's so that Pub incumbents keep their same CD number if reasonably possible.

Any VRA litigation will take into account whether you are drawing an incumbent out of Their district, whether you are removing Their district office from Their district. and are removing significant economic activity from Their district.