2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 38-district map of Texas.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.05%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.
It scores 98/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index and 79/100 on the Minority Representation index.

The map above shows results from the 2016 United States Presidential election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2014 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 28R to 10D

2014 Texas Gubernatorial Election: 25R to 13D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Colorado: 20R to 18D


Opinions?

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a Texas 26R-12D map (shades are according to 2016 Pres):







After playing around, ceding a 4th seat to Dems in Houston and a 3rd seat in Dallas are musts unless you want a dummymander.

One question is how VRA will be applied in RGV after 2020. After the huge shifts we saw, it's not unreasonable to have a functioning Hispanic VRA district that elect Republicans. Furthrmore, will the rules of not overpacking VRA districts apply to this region? If there really was a Hispanic undercount in the 2020 census are R - leaning fajitas possible? I plan to readjust this region of my map once the 2020 data is out, and am not sure if the current iteration would survive VRA lawsuits.

This map assumes that RGV trends we saw in 2020 are indicative of a larger trend as opposed to a weird exception.

I aimed for about Trump + 25 on 2016 in the suburban seats. Most of these districts likely shifted 5-10 points left in 2020, but that's still not enough to be competative, especially since trends tend to lag a cycle or so behind downballot. Even another 5-10 point shift in 2024 wouldn't be enough and 5-10 point shift in 2028 might narrowly flip a few districts if Dems are lucky, but that's a huge IF.

Partisanship numbers. Each district is numbered with it's closest 2016 counterpart. 37 is the one shaped like a backwards question mark that stretches between Corpus Christi and Houston Exurbs. District 38 is the one that takes in suburban Houston, Waller County, and Brazos County.



What do y'all think?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My attempt at a Texas 26R-12D map (shades are according to 2016 Pres):







After playing around, ceding a 4th seat to Dems in Houston and a 3rd seat in Dallas are musts unless you want a dummymander.

One question is how VRA will be applied in RGV after 2020. After the huge shifts we saw, it's not unreasonable to have a functioning Hispanic VRA district that elect Republicans. Furthrmore, will the rules of not overpacking VRA districts apply to this region? If there really was a Hispanic undercount in the 2020 census are R - leaning fajitas possible? I plan to readjust this region of my map once the 2020 data is out, and am not sure if the current iteration would survive VRA lawsuits.

This map assumes that RGV trends we saw in 2020 are indicative of a larger trend as opposed to a weird exception.

I aimed for about Trump + 25 on 2016 in the suburban seats. Most of these districts likely shifted 5-10 points left in 2020, but that's still not enough to be competative, especially since trends tend to lag a cycle or so behind downballot. Even another 5-10 point shift in 2024 wouldn't be enough and 5-10 point shift in 2028 might narrowly flip a few districts if Dems are lucky, but that's a huge IF.

Partisanship numbers. Each district is numbered with it's closest 2016 counterpart. 37 is the one shaped like a backwards question mark that stretches between Corpus Christi and Houston Exurbs. District 38 is the one that takes in suburban Houston, Waller County, and Brazos County.



What do y'all think?

That D pack along the border looks flagrantly illegal to me, but the broader map is not that bad overall.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a Texas 26R-12D map (shades are according to 2016 Pres):







After playing around, ceding a 4th seat to Dems in Houston and a 3rd seat in Dallas are musts unless you want a dummymander.

One question is how VRA will be applied in RGV after 2020. After the huge shifts we saw, it's not unreasonable to have a functioning Hispanic VRA district that elect Republicans. Furthrmore, will the rules of not overpacking VRA districts apply to this region? If there really was a Hispanic undercount in the 2020 census are R - leaning fajitas possible? I plan to readjust this region of my map once the 2020 data is out, and am not sure if the current iteration would survive VRA lawsuits.

This map assumes that RGV trends we saw in 2020 are indicative of a larger trend as opposed to a weird exception.

I aimed for about Trump + 25 on 2016 in the suburban seats. Most of these districts likely shifted 5-10 points left in 2020, but that's still not enough to be competative, especially since trends tend to lag a cycle or so behind downballot. Even another 5-10 point shift in 2024 wouldn't be enough and 5-10 point shift in 2028 might narrowly flip a few districts if Dems are lucky, but that's a huge IF.

Partisanship numbers. Each district is numbered with it's closest 2016 counterpart. 37 is the one shaped like a backwards question mark that stretches between Corpus Christi and Houston Exurbs. District 38 is the one that takes in suburban Houston, Waller County, and Brazos County.



What do y'all think?

That D pack along the border looks flagrantly illegal to me, but the broader map is not that bad overall.

Yeah that's what I suspect too; it's a Hispanic pack. I'm waiting for 2020 data before I really play around with teh RGV; this is more of a hypothetical placeholder till then.

[Sol]

I've been playing around with Texas under the new numbers and I've kind of stumbled on an interesting alternative configuration in South Texas. (Ignore the rest of the map, just playing around.)





Do y'all think this would pass VRA muster on 2020 data? TX-15 at least would have probably flipped, and possibly one of the other fajitas as well--but on the other hand TX-23 is much more likely to select the Latino candidate of choice so it might be a wash?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Do y'all think this would pass VRA muster on 2020 data? TX-15 at least would have probably flipped, and possibly one of the other fajitas as well--but on the other hand TX-23 is much more likely to select the Latino candidate of choice so it might be a wash?

I don't think this arrangement has much likelihood of not passing VRA muster under 2020 data. The Latino pop % is high enough that any flips will occur mainly due to Latinos themselves switching, and thus the decisive power of the Latino vote in the district is preserved.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is my GOP gerrymander map of Texas with both the 2020 Prez and 2020 Sen data.

The composition is 25 R - 13 D.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d3da59b4-3968-4bc1-aa0c-eeef587a4989

2020 Sen data:




2020 Prez:

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nice. I think 2020 data shows that Rs prolly need to cede at least 2 of a 4th Houston seat, a 4th Dallas seat, or a 4th Austin seat. It'll be interesting to see how they deal with RGV as it's very difficult to make  a Dem sink that complies with VRA. I think whatever they do will show how sustained they expect 2020 trends to be.

[Non Swing Voter]

so a GOP gerrymander basically just nets them the two new seats?  That's not going to cut it if Dems do end up gerrymandering NY.

[ProgressiveModerate]

so a GOP gerrymander basically just nets them the two new seats?  That's not going to cut it if Dems do end up gerrymandering NY.

It also shores up a lot of seats though which means they won't have to spend as much money in TX protecting vulnerable seats. But ye, currently the GOP is pretty maxed out in the current TX House config, especially since a lot of the Dem areas have grown significantly in population since 2010.

[Non Swing Voter]

so a GOP gerrymander basically just nets them the two new seats?  That's not going to cut it if Dems do end up gerrymandering NY.

It also shores up a lot of seats though which means they won't have to spend as much money in TX protecting vulnerable seats. But ye, currently the GOP is pretty maxed out in the current TX House config, especially since a lot of the Dem areas have grown significantly in population since 2010.

This is why I don't think gerrymandering is going to hurt Dems as much as people here keep saying... I guess Florida is a wild card but it seems like Dems can do real damage in New York that more than makes up for Texas.  Then you have a number of states that were Republican gerrymanders 10 years ago which will now have commissions.  Plus the fact you noted that Dem areas have tended to grow in population (not just in TX but everywhere else). 

[ProgressiveModerate]

so a GOP gerrymander basically just nets them the two new seats?  That's not going to cut it if Dems do end up gerrymandering NY.

It also shores up a lot of seats though which means they won't have to spend as much money in TX protecting vulnerable seats. But ye, currently the GOP is pretty maxed out in the current TX House config, especially since a lot of the Dem areas have grown significantly in population since 2010.

This is why I don't think gerrymandering is going to hurt Dems as much as people here keep saying... I guess Florida is a wild card but it seems like Dems can do real damage in New York that more than makes up for Texas.  Then you have a number of states that were Republican gerrymanders 10 years ago which will now have commissions.  Plus the fact you noted that Dem areas have tended to grow in population (not just in TX but everywhere else). 

I mean here’s your list of most likely partisan changes. Positive means Dem:

AZ: -0 or 1
CA: -0.5 to 2.5
CO: + 0.5
FL: -4.5 to -6.5
GA: -2
IL: +1.5 to 2.5
IA: +0 or 1
KS: -0 or 1
LA: +0 or 1
MD: +1
MI: -0.5 to +1.5
MO: -1
MT: -0.5
NJ: -2 to + 1
NM: +0 or 1
NY: +2.5 to +4.5
NC: -1.5 to -2.5
OH: -0.5 to +1.5
OR: -0.5 or +0.5
PA: -0.5 or +0.5
TN: -1
TX: -0 to 2
UT: +0 or 1
VA: -0 or 1
WA: -0 or 1
WV: + 0.5
WI: +0 or 1

Someone can do the math on this but it pretty much cancels out

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Someone can do the math on this but it pretty much cancels out

I was curious and I like math, so...

The mean expectation from your numbers is +2

[_.]

I tried my hand at a second fair 38-district map of Texas.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
77/100 on the Compactness Index
51/100 on County Splitting
80/100 on the Minority Representation index
20/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2014 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 28R to 10D

2014 Texas Gubernatorial Election: 27R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Texas: 21R to 17D

2018 Texas Attorney General Election: 21R to 17D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 21R to 17D

2018 Texas Gubernatorial Election: 25R to 13D

2018 Texas Lieutenant Governor Election: 21R to 17D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 22R to 16D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Texas: 21R to 17D


Opinions?

[viscountviktor]

What are the rules on Hispanic % VAP for the fajita districts?

I was under the impression that the limit was pretty much 80%, anything above can be seen as packing.

Lots of the Texas maps pack Hidalgo and Cameron together which creates an 85%+ Hispanic seat. This would obviously benefit Republicans as they could potentially gain the other two fajita seats.

But if this was legal, why haven't they done it before? I thought the reason the districts snake up is to dilute the % Hispanic to make it legal under the VRA.

Of course, if 90%+ districts are now allowed, then that makes the Texas GOP's job a lot easier.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried my hand at a second fair 38-district map of Texas.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
77/100 on the Compactness Index
51/100 on County Splitting
80/100 on the Minority Representation index
20/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2014 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 28R to 10D

2014 Texas Gubernatorial Election: 27R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Texas: 21R to 17D

2018 Texas Attorney General Election: 21R to 17D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 21R to 17D

2018 Texas Gubernatorial Election: 25R to 13D

2018 Texas Lieutenant Governor Election: 21R to 17D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 22R to 16D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Texas: 21R to 17D


Opinions?

It's good for the purposes of a mostly race-neutral, county integrity- and compactness-minded map.

[Brittain33]

Apparently Loving County came in at far below its estimate and a drop from 2010? Could there have been fraud involved in the inflated estimates?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apparently Loving County came in at far below its estimate and a drop from 2010? Could there have been fraud involved in the inflated estimates?

The county population is so small that just a few people here and a few people not there really can sway the numbers heavily. I wouldn’t read too much into it.

[Brittain33]

I'm updating my map for 2020 population data and here's what I'm seeing for my 2019 estimates maps:

* 3 of 4 Houston Dem packs were underpopulated (R+)
* East Texas rurals were underpopulated (D+)
* West Texas rurals were underpopulated (D+)
* RGV was underpopulated (R+)
* Austin-area Dem cracks in R districts were overpopulated (D+)
* Dallas-area Dem packs were underpopulated, but not as much as Houston (R+)

All told, it's a wash or advantage Republicans slightly. Flipping TX-7 to an R district may be marginally easier - if Torie was able to do it before, there's now room to move 60,000 more voters into the other 3 districts.

[dpmapper]

Seems to me San Antonio is even more underpopulated than the Houston or Dallas packs! 

[Brittain33]

What's the minimum R PVI I should aim for in Texas with 2016/2020 data? I built my map with 2012/2016 and just updated to 2020 results, ouch.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the minimum R PVI I should aim for in Texas with 2016/2020 data? I built my map with 2012/2016 and just updated to 2020 results, ouch.

R+8 or so? I'm not entirely sure.
I'll be making my own fresh R gerry to find out what's workable and what's not.

[jimrtex]

Apparently Loving County came in at far below its estimate and a drop from 2010? Could there have been fraud involved in the inflated estimates?

There are several man camps in the county. There are a lot of temporary housing in the oil fields. People are reluctant to build houses which might go vacant in a few years. There are a lot of RV parks. Someone who is working 7x12 shifts doesn't need much beyond a place to sleep and to eat.

If they have a wife and kids back in Louisiana, they might get counted there by the Census. while estimates show them elsewhere.

I seem to recall the first birth in the county in several decades.

Though it used to be true that more votes were cast in Loving than people living there. Loving is actually quite wealthy (lots of petro$$$$ per capita), so people can live elsewhere on their royalty checks, and vote absentee.

After this was publicized they cleaned up their voter rolls. In 2000, 156 of 211 registered voters voted.

In 2004 it was 80 of 108. In 2020 it was 66 of 111.

Supposedly county elections were hotly contested, with the two parties being akin to the Hatfield and the McCoys, though I seem to recall it was more like the Hatfields and the Hatfields. All counties in Texas have 4 county commissioners so there were like 16 voters per commisioners precincts.

[Brittain33]

What's the minimum R PVI I should aim for in Texas with 2016/2020 data? I built my map with 2012/2016 and just updated to 2020 results, ouch.

R+8 or so? I'm not entirely sure.
I'll be making my own fresh R gerry to find out what's workable and what's not.

I haven't tried to eliminate the 4th D in Harris (Torie's precedent notwithstanding) but to keep the TX-32, 3, and 24 in the 8-10 range for PVI I had to send TX-32 from the Park cities up to all of Grayson County and baconstrip the most Dem parts of Collin County into TX-4.

I'm inclined to just do a fourth Dem pack in the Metroplex.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else having problems merely loading up a Texas map?