2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Brittain33]

I used your link which I assume included your changes, but I will export and import it again. This is unless you made changes in a new file, in which event you would need to share the new link.

Addendum: It appears you made your changes in a new file so I can't access it.

Oh, my bad. I didn't know that would happen. Here's a fresh link with changes to north of Houston and Bexar/RGV:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9558a137-6a0b-4ba5-a474-8d29b74ac722

Thanks.

You appear to have taken "remedial" action in the Houston area but not in the Hispanic zone, and the nesting issue in Bexar County in particular.

The image below was Bexar County before I made any changes. I moved TX-28 out of that part of the state completely and now TX-15 is predominantly a Bexar-based district. Perhaps I'm not understanding what exactly "nested" should mean. Or is it that keeping TX-35 as a Travis-Bexar Hispanic district means the map is wrong from the get-go?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what peak performance looks like.
I started in South Texas this time, as opposed to East Texas which is where I normally begin.
The two median districts (under 2012/2016 PVI) are R+3 and D+3 compared to the state, which makes them together mirror the state perfectly.
Under 2016 presidential figures, Disproportionality is 0.00% - making it the most proportional map I have ever made.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c1a3329-066c-4f19-8457-e4c9d2c209ea

[Torie]

Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Tim, FWIW, under a somewhat different kind of rule of proportionality, using PVI, if the PVI for Texas is say 6% R (not sure what it is exactly), there is a Muon2 formula of proportionality, wherein the Pubs should have 50% + (6% x 2) = 62% of the 28 districts. Swing districts are split between the parties under this formula for purposes of the count, or excluded entirely from the pie, with the remaining portion divided 62% to 38%. (I think he likes the latter and I the former, but my memory is not as good as it once was sadly.) I think Muon2 defines swing as between -1.49% to +1.49% R PVI.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Tim, FWIW, under a somewhat different kind of rule of proportionality, using PVI, if the PVI for Texas is say 6% R (not sure what it is exactly), there is a Muon2 formula of proportionality, wherein the Pubs should have 50% + (6% x 2) = 62% of the 28 districts. Swing districts are split between the parties under this formula for purposes of the count, or excluded entirely from the pie, with the remaining portion divided 62% to 38%. (I think he likes the latter and I the former, but my memory is not as good as it once was sadly.) I think Muon2 defines swing as between -1.49% to +1.49% R PVI.

I'm aware of the Muon formula. I just find the DRA proportionality measurement too convenient not to widely use.
It goes without saying that multiple legitimate definitions of proportionality can exist at the same time  too.
I'm interested in how the Muon rules would rate my TX map above in fact.

[Brittain33]

Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Ok. Apologies if you covered this in a past map, but what do you propose happens to TX-23 in this scenario? Does it become one of the two performing CDs (an unlikely move for a Republican map) or does it take up the 20% of the county that is most Anglo with approx. 400,000 people, with TX-21 moving out completely? Also, since the RGV doesn't have sufficient population for 3 full Hispanic districts, where do you connect the leftovers to since fajita strips are now out, too? I would like to see the whole that is made from the sum of the parts of your proposition.

[Stuart98]

Fair map, which DRA currently lists as the most proportional and best minority representation map anyone's published for the state.



President 2016



DFW


Houston


Austin/San Antonio


Districts that shifted significantly in 2018 and/or 2020 (using the DRA extender):

3rd: Trump +13.8 -> Cruz +2.5 -> Biden +0.2
7th: Trump +2.5 -> Beto +2.8 -> Biden +3.8
12th: Trump +14.5 -> Cruz +6.5 -> Trump +7.6
15th: Clinton +32.7 -> Beto +30.6 -> Biden +13.6
20th: Clinton +11.1 -> Beto + 17.8 -> Biden +17.4
24th: Trump +14.5 -> Cruz +4.1 -> Trump +2.9
25th: Clinton +18.7 -> Beto +30.9 -> Biden +26.8
26th: Trump +23 -> Cruz +11.9 -> Trump +11.8
28th: Clinton +8.6 -> Biden +5.6 -> Trump +7.4
29th: Trump +4 -> Beto +0.7 -> Trump +5.7
31st: Trump +13.2 -> Cruz +1.9 -> Trump +3.2
32nd: Trump +2.1 -> Beto +6.6 -> Biden +8.8
34th: Clinton +20.2 -> Beto +16.0 -> Biden +1.4
37th: Clinton +0.5 -> Beto +7.9 -> Biden +6.0

District that surprisingly didn't shift?

23rd: Clinton +2.9 -> Beto +8.7 -> Biden +4.3

[Torie]

Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Ok. Apologies if you covered this in a past map, but what do you propose happens to TX-23 in this scenario? Does it become one of the two performing CDs (an unlikely move for a Republican map) or does it take up the 20% of the county that is most Anglo with approx. 400,000 people, with TX-21 moving out completely? Also, since the RGV doesn't have sufficient population for 3 full Hispanic districts, where do you connect the leftovers to since fajita strips are now out, too? I would like to see the whole that is made from the sum of the parts of your proposition.

Britain33, here is the design of the RGV area I have in mind more or less. Tragically, TX-11 is about 3 points short of 50%+ HCVAP due to the districts having higher population with only 38 districts, and that I think is an important goal for the Pubs to create such a safe Pub district that meets that metric for a host of reasons. It is possible it can be achieved by transferring some of the “excess” Hispanics from TX-15 to TX-11, but how to do that depends on the design of the slice and dice of Williamson and Travis County outside the Austin Dem vote sink, while still keeping TX-23 say 52% HCVAP and safely Pub, without looking ridiculous. VRA sensitive districts need to look reasonable. The uber erose stuff should not be VRA sensitive. The image of the map has in white the real estate where the populations of the CD’s is way off. The underpopulated northern plains white zone (plus whatever TX-11 releases in population if it moves down the RGV more to meet the 50%+ HCVAP threshold (while TX-23 moves down the RGV exclusive of the counties directly appending the river), will be used to “attack” the Metroplex and the Austin area, along with TX-25, whose boundaries will be changed to join the slice and dice party. So a lot more work needs to be done.

In that regard, Victoria County is a pain in the ass for the Hispanic shift referred to above because it is reasonably high population and very Pub and needs to be retained if possible in the CD that joins the Austin area slice and dice, rather than be "wasted" in TX-15. That I find quite annoying, and means TX-15 needs to go father up the coast, which then affects the Houston area slice and dice. One things leads to another.

TX is fun to Pubmander because of the VRA issues and its complexity as to that issue and the wildly diverse trends which one must ponder as to whether they are a precursor for more of the same or more in the nature of a blip.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/b705aabf-808a-4f6b-b837-844af931ad79

[S019]

I'm playing around with two configuration for 38 seat Texas:

The first one adds new seats in Dallas and Austin, the second adds them in Dallas and Houston. I had two goals for these maps: 1. shore up as many incumbents as possible to survive the decade, 2. create a map that is an aggressive gerrymander but avoids issues of racial gerrymandering and should be protected from a court challenge

First map (new seats Dallas and Austin): https://davesredistricting.org/join/d971787d-2cf3-499a-bac8-3d86769e2c32
Second map (new seats Dallas and Houston): https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2735b10-a885-4451-aaa1-fe4e73442540

So, some interesting observations: 1. It is fully possible to draw a competitive fajita without creating Hispanic packs or adding way too many white voters into the seat, 2. it is very difficult to shore up the Collin County seat due to its large size and also its rapid Dem trends, 3. Not adding one of the two new seats in Austin spells disaster for several GOP incumbents and further shows why there needs to be not just 1 Austin sink, but 1.5 (new seat+Doggett), 4. even in the the first map, some Austin area incumbents could become vulnerable simply due to the broad spread of Dem votes in Austin and it isn't an easy problem to fix, but much better than the alternative.

Interested to hear feedback on this, I spent around 5-6 hours working on these two maps.

I chose not to do an Austin and Houston new seat map because seeing the rate of bluing in the DFW Metroplex, the GOP would be braindead not to add a new seat there and looking at the results from the 2nd map, it's pretty clear that it'd be some version of a dummymander.

[Torie]

Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Ok. Apologies if you covered this in a past map, but what do you propose happens to TX-23 in this scenario? Does it become one of the two performing CDs (an unlikely move for a Republican map) or does it take up the 20% of the county that is most Anglo with approx. 400,000 people, with TX-21 moving out completely? Also, since the RGV doesn't have sufficient population for 3 full Hispanic districts, where do you connect the leftovers to since fajita strips are now out, too? I would like to see the whole that is made from the sum of the parts of your proposition.

Britain33, here is the design of the RGV area I have in mind more or less. Tragically, TX-11 is about 3 points short of 50%+ HCVAP due to the districts having higher population with only 38 districts, and that I think is an important goal for the Pubs to create such a safe Pub district that meets that metric for a host of reasons. It is possible it can be achieved by transferring some of the “excess” Hispanics from TX-15 to TX-11, but how to do that depends on the design of the slice and dice of Williamson and Travis County outside the Austin Dem vote sink, while still keeping TX-23 say 52% HCVAP and safely Pub, without looking ridiculous. VRA sensitive districts need to look reasonable. The uber erose stuff should not be VRA sensitive. The image of the map has in white the real estate where the populations of the CD’s is way off. The underpopulated northern plains white zone (plus whatever TX-11 releases in population if it moves down the RGV more to meet the 50%+ HCVAP threshold (while TX-23 moves down the RGV exclusive of the counties directly appending the river), will be used to “attack” the Metroplex and the Austin area, along with TX-25, whose boundaries will be changed to join the slice and dice party. So a lot more work needs to be done.

In that regard, Victoria County is a pain in the ass for the Hispanic shift referred to above because it is reasonably high population and very Pub and needs to be retained if possible in the CD that joins the Austin area slice and dice, rather than be "wasted" in TX-15. That I find quite annoying, and means TX-15 needs to go father up the coast, which then affects the Houston area slice and dice. One things leads to another.

TX is fun to Pubmander because of the VRA issues and its complexity as to that issue and the wildly diverse trends which one must ponder as to whether they are a precursor for more of the same or more in the nature of a blip.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/b705aabf-808a-4f6b-b837-844af931ad79

Voila!

[Torie]

Thanks Britain33. Moving right along, I still see in your map 4 dark blue blobs in the Houston area, one more than the Pubmander quota that is allowed there for advocates of the "socialist agenda."  Naughty!

[Brittain33]

Thanks Britain33. Moving right along, I still see in your map 4 dark blue blobs in the Houston area, one more than the Pubmander quota that is allowed there for advocates of the "socialist agenda."  Naughty!

I’m guessing I can do better if I break up my compact TX-2 and TX-36 to bacon strip east Texas and diluted more of Harris’s blue districts like I did with 10, 22, and 8 already. It’s hard to do more in Central TX because those rurals are also needed for Austin. Do you think it’s possible to do much better to break up TX-7 without the minority districts shedding Hispanics and African-Americans to east Texas R districts?

In other words, talk to me after you’ve solved for Williamson and the bits of Travis you haven’t assigned yet. 😘

[S019]

Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Ok. Apologies if you covered this in a past map, but what do you propose happens to TX-23 in this scenario? Does it become one of the two performing CDs (an unlikely move for a Republican map) or does it take up the 20% of the county that is most Anglo with approx. 400,000 people, with TX-21 moving out completely? Also, since the RGV doesn't have sufficient population for 3 full Hispanic districts, where do you connect the leftovers to since fajita strips are now out, too? I would like to see the whole that is made from the sum of the parts of your proposition.

Britain33, here is the design of the RGV area I have in mind more or less. Tragically, TX-11 is about 3 points short of 50%+ HCVAP due to the districts having higher population with only 38 districts, and that I think is an important goal for the Pubs to create such a safe Pub district that meets that metric for a host of reasons. It is possible it can be achieved by transferring some of the “excess” Hispanics from TX-15 to TX-11, but how to do that depends on the design of the slice and dice of Williamson and Travis County outside the Austin Dem vote sink, while still keeping TX-23 say 52% HCVAP and safely Pub, without looking ridiculous. VRA sensitive districts need to look reasonable. The uber erose stuff should not be VRA sensitive. The image of the map has in white the real estate where the populations of the CD’s is way off. The underpopulated northern plains white zone (plus whatever TX-11 releases in population if it moves down the RGV more to meet the 50%+ HCVAP threshold (while TX-23 moves down the RGV exclusive of the counties directly appending the river), will be used to “attack” the Metroplex and the Austin area, along with TX-25, whose boundaries will be changed to join the slice and dice party. So a lot more work needs to be done.

In that regard, Victoria County is a pain in the ass for the Hispanic shift referred to above because it is reasonably high population and very Pub and needs to be retained if possible in the CD that joins the Austin area slice and dice, rather than be "wasted" in TX-15. That I find quite annoying, and means TX-15 needs to go father up the coast, which then affects the Houston area slice and dice. One things leads to another.

TX is fun to Pubmander because of the VRA issues and its complexity as to that issue and the wildly diverse trends which one must ponder as to whether they are a precursor for more of the same or more in the nature of a blip.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/b705aabf-808a-4f6b-b837-844af931ad79

I see several issues with this, first McCaul lives in Austin, on the other end of the 10th, so a north south configuration between Harris and Montgomery won't work with that seat. Second, the 9th can remain performing and still take in more of Fort Bend, this makes it necessary not to split the county in half and leaves Nehls' home base intact. Third, TX-34 is 90% Hispanic, no court is going to let that stand, especially since Democrats have already been preparing for multiple VRA lawsuits in many different states, not that hard for them to add TX to that list. Fourth, TX-11 was a leftovers district last time and probably should remain one, this current configuration eats into a lot of the 19th, which is going to cause problems for several rural incumbents who are going to lose large parts of their district. Fifth, Denton County cannot sustain itself anymore, not with the swings it's undergoing, it should be split and part of it paired with the Red River Counties. Sixth, 15 and 23 are in all likelihood not Hispanic enough, you need around 60% for a Hispanic performing seat, in general, and it needs to be more like 70% in the RGV (the probably illegal pack of 28 is probably partially responsible for this). Seventh, the elimination of Doggett's seat is unwise as it serves as a convenient D pack and with 25 being used up and 17 needing to go to Waco to grab Sessions' home, I don't think that Carter is going to be too happy with the 31 that results. One thing that I do like in this map is the carve up of Montgomery, with Brady gone, the GOP should have free reign to slice and dice the county at will. Also the Collin seat isn't going to safe, but I have yet to see a map that successfully pulls that off, Van Taylor is just going to have hope he's strong enough to brave the trends, given we've seen strong incumbents survive in districts zooming away from their party, he should have a chance of pulling it off for sure, unless a Democratic favored year occurs.

[Stuart98]

Worth noting that the 15th in my fair map is kinda awkwardly shaped but it manages to be under 90% hispanic by total population, if you're looking for an exclusively urban RGV seat that does that.

[Brittain33]

If McCaul lives in Austin, isn't that his problem if he wants to remain an R in Congress?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If McCaul lives in Austin, isn't that his problem if he wants to remain an R in Congress?

If he has to move, he's going to move. These days, having a secure seat trumps having your residence kept in the district, in case the two conflict.

[S019]

If McCaul lives in Austin, isn't that his problem if he wants to remain an R in Congress?

Well yes, but there's a balance that can be struck here. Even pulling the seat out of Travis, but keeping some part of it in that general Austin area like WilCo, Bastrop, or Lee would allow him to keep some of his geographic base. Moving his seat to Houston is going to invite a primary challenge from a Houston area Republican, who very well could win that primary challenge, as that isn't McCaul's base. Losing his residency might not be a deal breaker, but moving his district to the other side of the state far away from his home base, absolutely could be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm playing around with two configuration for 38 seat Texas:

The first one adds new seats in Dallas and Austin, the second adds them in Dallas and Houston. I had two goals for these maps: 1. shore up as many incumbents as possible to survive the decade, 2. create a map that is an aggressive gerrymander but avoids issues of racial gerrymandering and should be protected from a court challenge

First map (new seats Dallas and Austin): https://davesredistricting.org/join/d971787d-2cf3-499a-bac8-3d86769e2c32
Second map (new seats Dallas and Houston): https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2735b10-a885-4451-aaa1-fe4e73442540

So, some interesting observations: 1. It is fully possible to draw a competitive fajita without creating Hispanic packs or adding way too many white voters into the seat, 2. it is very difficult to shore up the Collin County seat due to its large size and also its rapid Dem trends, 3. Not adding one of the two new seats in Austin spells disaster for several GOP incumbents and further shows why there needs to be not just 1 Austin sink, but 1.5 (new seat+Doggett), 4. even in the the first map, some Austin area incumbents could become vulnerable simply due to the broad spread of Dem votes in Austin and it isn't an easy problem to fix, but much better than the alternative.

Interested to hear feedback on this, I spent around 5-6 hours working on these two maps.

I chose not to do an Austin and Houston new seat map because seeing the rate of bluing in the DFW Metroplex, the GOP would be braindead not to add a new seat there and looking at the results from the 2nd map, it's pretty clear that it'd be some version of a dummymander.

I'd say these pretty efficiently use the GOP vote. At the same time, they probably both are a bit too messy (hard to see that 38th actually being in a real enacted map).
Houston area lines in Map 1 are pretty much pitch-perfect for a GOP gerrymander. Both Maps 1 and 2 crack the Austin area effectively, but I would agree with the idea 2 is safer. At the same time, 1's lines in Austin look better.
It would be interesting to see you do Austin and Houston, even if that is not the most efficient for the GOP probably.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If McCaul lives in Austin, isn't that his problem if he wants to remain an R in Congress?

Well yes, but there's a balance that can be struck here. Even pulling the seat out of Travis, but keeping some part of it in that general Austin area like WilCo, Bastrop, or Lee would allow him to keep some of his geographic base. Moving his seat to Houston is going to invite a primary challenge from a Houston area Republican, who very well could win that primary challenge, as that isn't McCaul's base. Losing his residency might not be a deal breaker, but moving his district to the other side of the state far away from his home base, absolutely could be.

Not only that, but McCaul is a powerful enough member of the House Republican Caucus that he probably has more influence than most of the Republicans in the TX House delegation.  If he wants special consideration regarding the makeup of his district, they’ll likely at least try to meet him halfway and I agree that it’s hard to imagine him not making a stink about losing his entire political base (even if Travis County is as dangerous to him as any other Republican).

[Torie]

Thanks Britain33. Moving right along, I still see in your map 4 dark blue blobs in the Houston area, one more than the Pubmander quota that is allowed there for advocates of the "socialist agenda."  Naughty!

I’m guessing I can do better if I break up my compact TX-2 and TX-36 to bacon strip east Texas and diluted more of Harris’s blue districts like I did with 10, 22, and 8 already. It’s hard to do more in Central TX because those rurals are also needed for Austin. Do you think it’s possible to do much better to break up TX-7 without the minority districts shedding Hispanics and African-Americans to east Texas R districts?

In other words, talk to me after you’ve solved for Williamson and the bits of Travis you haven’t assigned yet. 😘

OK, the Austin area (outside the TX-35 compound where the loci of the woksters and other such hostiles have been penned), has been pacified, with the design of the CD’s as they go into the zone to slice and dice, and their recommended level of Pub strength (as measured by the Trump 2016 percentages) to be able to hold up to adverse trends as Pub havens for the decade, depicted. They include TX-17 (highly Pubbed up since it is taking a double adverse trend hit per its slice of Williamson and Brazos), 21, 31, and 27, together with TX-25 (the latter being deliberately excluded from the slice and dice party because half its population is in Bell County, which we don’t particularly trust as to future trends because it is too near Austin). Your mission is to summon up the virtu to do to TX-07 what Rome did to Carthage, so that over the next 10 years it will be nothing but the equivalent of a toxic waste dump for the Dems. I have not actually taken on this noble task myself. I leave that to you for me to critique.  Be a mensch!

As per the program, the white areas are the 3 CD’s (TX-6, 13 and 36) where the populations were/are substantially off.

Btw, I don't think your TX-33 is Hispanic performing.  In order to be Hispanic performing, it imo needs to be at least 45% HCVAP, and have at least twice as many HCVAP's as BCVAP's.

Here is an example that I just drew moving your lines around.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/b705aabf-808a-4f6b-b837-844af931ad79

[Torie]

Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Ok. Apologies if you covered this in a past map, but what do you propose happens to TX-23 in this scenario? Does it become one of the two performing CDs (an unlikely move for a Republican map) or does it take up the 20% of the county that is most Anglo with approx. 400,000 people, with TX-21 moving out completely? Also, since the RGV doesn't have sufficient population for 3 full Hispanic districts, where do you connect the leftovers to since fajita strips are now out, too? I would like to see the whole that is made from the sum of the parts of your proposition.

Britain33, here is the design of the RGV area I have in mind more or less. Tragically, TX-11 is about 3 points short of 50%+ HCVAP due to the districts having higher population with only 38 districts, and that I think is an important goal for the Pubs to create such a safe Pub district that meets that metric for a host of reasons. It is possible it can be achieved by transferring some of the “excess” Hispanics from TX-15 to TX-11, but how to do that depends on the design of the slice and dice of Williamson and Travis County outside the Austin Dem vote sink, while still keeping TX-23 say 52% HCVAP and safely Pub, without looking ridiculous. VRA sensitive districts need to look reasonable. The uber erose stuff should not be VRA sensitive. The image of the map has in white the real estate where the populations of the CD’s is way off. The underpopulated northern plains white zone (plus whatever TX-11 releases in population if it moves down the RGV more to meet the 50%+ HCVAP threshold (while TX-23 moves down the RGV exclusive of the counties directly appending the river), will be used to “attack” the Metroplex and the Austin area, along with TX-25, whose boundaries will be changed to join the slice and dice party. So a lot more work needs to be done.

In that regard, Victoria County is a pain in the ass for the Hispanic shift referred to above because it is reasonably high population and very Pub and needs to be retained if possible in the CD that joins the Austin area slice and dice, rather than be "wasted" in TX-15. That I find quite annoying, and means TX-15 needs to go father up the coast, which then affects the Houston area slice and dice. One things leads to another.

TX is fun to Pubmander because of the VRA issues and its complexity as to that issue and the wildly diverse trends which one must ponder as to whether they are a precursor for more of the same or more in the nature of a blip.

I see several issues with this, first McCaul lives in Austin, on the other end of the 10th, so a north south configuration between Harris and Montgomery won't work with that seat. Second, the 9th can remain performing and still take in more of Fort Bend, this makes it necessary not to split the county in half and leaves Nehls' home base intact. Third, TX-34 is 90% Hispanic, no court is going to let that stand, especially since Democrats have already been preparing for multiple VRA lawsuits in many different states, not that hard for them to add TX to that list. Fourth, TX-11 was a leftovers district last time and probably should remain one, this current configuration eats into a lot of the 19th, which is going to cause problems for several rural incumbents who are going to lose large parts of their district. Fifth, Denton County cannot sustain itself anymore, not with the swings it's undergoing, it should be split and part of it paired with the Red River Counties. Sixth, 15 and 23 are in all likelihood not Hispanic enough, you need around 60% for a Hispanic performing seat, in general, and it needs to be more like 70% in the RGV (the probably illegal pack of 28 is probably partially responsible for this). Seventh, the elimination of Doggett's seat is unwise as it serves as a convenient D pack and with 25 being used up and 17 needing to go to Waco to grab Sessions' home, I don't think that Carter is going to be too happy with the 31 that results. One thing that I do like in this map is the carve up of Montgomery, with Brady gone, the GOP should have free reign to slice and dice the county at will. Also the Collin seat isn't going to safe, but I have yet to see a map that successfully pulls that off, Van Taylor is just going to have hope he's strong enough to brave the trends, given we've seen strong incumbents survive in districts zooming away from their party, he should have a chance of pulling it off for sure, unless a Democratic favored year occurs.

Of course there will probably be VRA lawsuits anyway. The issue is their relative level of merit. I think taking the risk of having CD's that are clearly 50%+ HCVAP that don't elect Democrats because there are two many Hispanic Pubs or they just don't bother to vote, that do not look gerrymandered, is a reasonable one. Others may disagree which is OK. Having said that, in addition to what has been drawn appending the RG River and the two nested CD's in Bexar County, there needs to be one Democratic performing Hispanic CD in the Metroplex, and one in Houston. That goes without saying, mandated by Gingles.

[Torie]

I completed my revisions to Britain33's map, but I won't post it now in case he or others want to do they own map and try to be more effective for the Pubs. I will post the stats in a moment.

Voila. The goal of course was to get the competitiveness score down to zero, but alas I fell short with a 3 score. Zero I think is possible with a bit more work however, perhaps by adding another county split or two, and a smidgen of more erosity. Alas when the Trump 2020 numbers are available, that zero even if achieved will go away. Sad!

Will the Pubs be up to this task? Inquiring minds want to know. I have faith in their brutality and avarice however.

[Stuart98]

I completed my revisions to Britain33's map, but I won't post it now in case he or others want to do they own map and try to be more effective for the Pubs. I will post the stats in a moment.

Voila. The goal of course was to get the competitiveness score down to zero, but alas I fell short with a 3 score. Zero I think is possible with a bit more work however, perhaps by adding another county split or two, and a smidgen of more erosity. Alas when the Trump 2020 numbers are available, that zero even if achieved will go away. Sad!

Will the Pubs be up to this task? Inquiring minds want to know. I have faith in their brutality and avarice however.

What's the partisanship of your districts when you run them through the DRA extender (or just the NYT precinct map)?

[Torie]

What is the DRA extender? Sounds interesting.

[Brittain33]

I completed my revisions to Britain33's map, but I won't post it now in case he or others want to do they own map and try to be more effective for the Pubs. I will post the stats in a moment.

To be honest, I’m not likely to make changes because it would mean dismantling my neat TX-2 and TX-36 districts to make 3 baconstrip R districts and rebalancing the minority districts in Harris, precinct by precinct, to inch them west while surrendering minorities to the eastern R districts at a managed pace. I recognize it may be doable in a way that dissolves TX-7 wouldn’t find that exercise much fun, it’s not what I enjoy about redistricting. Bring on your new solution.

[Torie]

I completed my revisions to Britain33's map, but I won't post it now in case he or others want to do they own map and try to be more effective for the Pubs. I will post the stats in a moment.

To be honest, I’m not likely to make changes because it would mean dismantling my neat TX-2 and TX-36 districts to make 3 baconstrip R districts and rebalancing the minority districts in Harris, precinct by precinct, to inch them west while surrendering minorities to the eastern R districts at a managed pace. I recognize it may be doable in a way that dissolves TX-7 wouldn’t find that exercise much fun, it’s not what I enjoy about redistricting. Bring on your new solution.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a4d540-b677-4eca-8e3a-4d32bbe24086

There ought to be a law against this sort of thing!