2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh wow. Only +2 TX? Goodbye new seat in Metro Houston.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

There's a chance, but it's probably a very small chance.
Them not drawing a second sink is much more likely.

[Stuart98]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

If they want to dummymander, then yes.

The current lines in metro Austin would cost the GOP literally five seats in 2024 if left unchanged.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

If they want to dummymander, then yes.

The current lines in metro Austin would cost the GOP literally five seats in 2024 if left unchanged.

Suburban reps don't tend to like taking in rural/exurban territory.

[Roll Roons]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

If they want to dummymander, then yes.

The current lines in metro Austin would cost the GOP literally five seats in 2024 if left unchanged.

Suburban reps don't tend to like taking in rural/exurban territory.

Most of the Austin crack seats already include blood-red rural/exurban areas. But Austin is getting close to San Francisco-level liberal. If the current map was kept, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-31 would all be in serious trouble, with TX-17 and TX-25 also approaching the danger zone.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Quick-and-dirty non partisan map.
Any thoughts?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ea32d1f-d9ee-4661-a195-53cb8d35f831

[Brittain33]

Texas +2 least change map featuring:
* Austin vote sink
* TX-7 conceded
* TX-32 moved north, but a new Dem sink in Dallas
* Williamson County cracked
* TX-34 packed, but I can't be bothered to fix
* Reasonably close population (every district within 2,000)

Things I'm happy about:
* Working out how to make Williamson "safe" for Republicans seeing that Williamson + Waco in TX-31 was a time bomb
* Reconfiguring TX-36 and TX-2 to be more compact and better aligned to county borders (although at the expense of Fort Bend Rs being in a single district)
* Clean boundaries in East Texas despite relative population loss

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9558a137-6a0b-4ba5-a474-8d29b74ac722

What do people think? I'd love to edit.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

How do you post pictures of DRA maps on this thread?

[Brittain33]

How do you post pictures of DRA maps on this thread?

Take screenshots, get an Imgur account, post pictures to Imgur, post direct links to images in the Imgur post with appropriate width. I figured it out 30 minutes ago.

[Brittain33]

I’m realizing 10 should be the Austin vote sink and 38 should be the north Harris Republican district for historical reasons.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Anybody know which Dem would be favoured for a Primary in a New Austin sink district ?

[Roll Roons]

Anybody know which Dem would be favoured for a Primary in a New Austin sink district ?

It would be an insane 20 candidate free for all. I wouldn't be surprised if the new person ends up joining the Squad. 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Anybody know which Dem would be favoured for a Primary in a New Austin sink district ?

It would be an insane 20 candidate free for all. I wouldn't be surprised if the new person ends up joining the Squad. 

Will the republican also draw a new Houston Sink ?. I think Lina Hidalgo would be very much favoured for a new sink there if they draw one.

[I’m not Stu]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

If they want to dummymander, then yes.

The current lines in metro Austin would cost the GOP literally five seats in 2024 if left unchanged.

Suburban reps don't tend to like taking in rural/exurban territory.

Why do they tend to not like taking in rural/exurban territory?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

If they want to dummymander, then yes.

The current lines in metro Austin would cost the GOP literally five seats in 2024 if left unchanged.

Suburban reps don't tend to like taking in rural/exurban territory.

Why do they tend to not like taking in rural/exurban territory?

Well generarly reps don't like their districts chaniging too much leaves them vunerable too a primary challenge. Let's say you're a suburban rep who's district had a bunch of blood-red exurbs added to it. Leaves you vunerable in a primary to someone accusing you of being a RINO.

[lfromnj]

"suburban reps aren't RINO's lol"

The most moderate Republican state senator comes from the district that covers most of TX 13th congressionally.

[Nyvin]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

If they want to dummymander, then yes.

The current lines in metro Austin would cost the GOP literally five seats in 2024 if left unchanged.

Suburban reps don't tend to like taking in rural/exurban territory.

It's usually the other way around - Rural/Small town areas don't like their districts mixed with suburban populations since the suburban population more often than not will dominate the district.

[S019]

"suburban reps aren't RINO's lol"

The most moderate Republican state senator comes from the district that covers most of TX 13th congressionally.

The point is they can be accused of being them, said accusations don't have to be true. Anyways any new turf that an incumbent isn't known in can be dangerous, which is why you never see insane spiralmanders in congressional maps. The districts usually retain some resemblance to their old versions. As for Austin, you can tinker with the seats slightly to pull them all out of Travis without them needing to pick up tons of brand new voters.

[Brittain33]

Anybody know which Dem would be favoured for a Primary in a New Austin sink district ?

It would be an insane 20 candidate free for all. I wouldn't be surprised if the new person ends up joining the Squad. 

Will the republican also draw a new Houston Sink ?. I think Lina Hidalgo would be very much favoured for a new sink there if they draw one.

I don’t think they need to if they concede and redraw TX-7.

[I’m not Stu]

Will TX-07 be conceded?

[Skill and Chance]

Anybody know which Dem would be favoured for a Primary in a New Austin sink district ?

It would be an insane 20 candidate free for all. I wouldn't be surprised if the new person ends up joining the Squad. 

Will the republican also draw a new Houston Sink ?. I think Lina Hidalgo would be very much favoured for a new sink there if they draw one.

I don’t think they need to if they concede and redraw TX-7.

Well, if they do concede a new Houston seat, the ideal placement would be well south of the current TX-07, with an arm into the most Dem part of Fort Bend.  I believe this seat would be plurality Hispanic.  Fletcher lives in the southernmost part of the current TX-07, so she might still live in the new Safe Dem district, but would be vulnerable to a primary by someone from Fort Bend.

IDK though I'm not at all convinced they will concede TX-07, especially with a 38 district map.  Fletcher only won by 3% in 2020, so it's not like this is hopeless territory for Texas R's and they are basically stuck conceding TX-32 and an additional Austin seat.  Houston was not as scary for R's as the other TX cities in 2020.  A Lean R swing seat in west Houston that takes advantage of Clinton 2016->Trump 2020 precincts definitely seems doable. 

[Torie]

Texas +2 least change map featuring:
* Austin vote sink
* TX-7 conceded
* TX-32 moved north, but a new Dem sink in Dallas
* Williamson County cracked
* TX-34 packed, but I can't be bothered to fix
* Reasonably close population (every district within 2,000)

Things I'm happy about:
* Working out how to make Williamson "safe" for Republicans seeing that Williamson + Waco in TX-31 was a time bomb
* Reconfiguring TX-36 and TX-2 to be more compact and better aligned to county borders (although at the expense of Fort Bend Rs being in a single district)
* Clean boundaries in East Texas despite relative population loss

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9558a137-6a0b-4ba5-a474-8d29b74ac722

What do people think? I'd love to edit.

Your respect for the VRA is on a par with the gunslingers at RRH with this map. What got in you Brittain33? Did someone brainwash you?

Please nest two Hispanic CD's in Bexar County and get rid of the Fajita strips. It may be true now that Gingles does not trigger the need for a performing Hispanic CD in the Metroplex, but since we don't know what data base the Courts will use that is risky. Granted I did not check what you did there. I saw what I saw as described above and closed the map!

[I’m not Stu]

I would like to post one of my maps at RRH. I’m not sure if the TXGOP will draw sinks or dummymander.

[Brittain33]

What was the rationale for getting rid of the fajita strips in the RGV? I haven't been paying close enough attention to your posts these last 10 years to understand why this changed.

TX-33 was drawn to maximize Hispanic population in the Metroplex.