2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

This is really just me thinking through EV scenarios, but I thought it might be helpful for others.

Assuming Trump wins NC and GA (which aren't final atm) he'd need Pennsylvania and either Arizona or Nevada. His paths to 270 are very narrow (especially since he's currently down in the last two states I mentioned) with Biden winning Michigan and Wisconsin.

All possible outcomes assuming Trump holds on in NC and GA:
Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + NV = 274

Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + AZ = 279

Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + AZ + NV = 285

Biden + AZ + NV = 270

Biden + NV + PA = 273

Biden + AZ + PA = 284

Biden + AZ + NV + PA = 290

This isn’t right. Biden + PA alone is 273, no need for NV.

[PeteB]

Weird how AP/Fox are confident enough to call Arizona yet haven't called Michigan yet which seems far more certain right now. Guess it does give me some hope that they're not just being gung-ho with that call.

FOX just called MI for Biden.  Give them some credit - they have been bullied by Trump for calling AZ early, and have not backed down, and will now get the same treatment for calling WI and MI for Biden.

[Storr]

What state do you think will be called next?

States still up in the air: AZ, NV, PA, GA, and NC

It depends on when Clark County releases it last results (evidently now they will release them today instead of tomorrow, but didn't specify the time they'd release them). But Arizona will in all likelihood be projected/called once their 9pm ET release occurs.

[Pulaski]

Wait, what’s happened while I’ve been asleep? I thought Arizona got called ages ago

[Middle-aged Europe]

Would be hilarious if Fox News became the first major network to declare Biden the winner of the election.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Even if it’s not a good election for democrats at all, it must be quite a humiliating defeat for Trump. He’s losing to a guy with no message other than being “Not Trump”. Trumpism is popular and it’s here to stay but the force of Anti-Trumpism is even stronger.

That’s just not true.

I do think Hillary Clinton is owed an apology though. Biden corrected basically all the mistakes of her campaign that people criticized her for and still might just barely win. Clearly, beating Trump is not the cakewalk people thought it should be.

I think it's more accurate to say that Biden "won" on being the 'aw shucks' candidate.

Yes, he has a detailed platform on his website. But Biden didn't deliver that platform in a way that personally appeals to voters. And that's the only thing that matters, because normal voters do not look at candidate websites. In truth, Biden did not run as a moderate or a centrist; he ran as a non-ideological pragmatic candidate who would make the trains run on time.

And since Republicans will in all likelihood hold the Senate, Biden will be lucky to get a quarter of his policies enacted. And this is not to say that Bernie or Warren would have necessarily done better, but for all their flaws, they ran on a clear policy-centered message. And Biden simply doesn't have the charisma that Obama or Bill Clinton did. Few politicians do. But he won the primaries because the consensus among Democrats is that "far-left" candidates cannot win.

Bernie failed to expand his coalition as well as hold on to the same types of voters that got him so far in 2016. The default alternative was Biden. But Democrats needed a Kennedy or an Obama to sweep this election and they didn't have one.

I honestly think that if the nominee were Buttigieg, he'd have this wrapped up a long time ago with coattails; same policies as Biden, but a fresh face with charisma who's quick on his feet - plastic as he might be.

[Silent Hunter]

Which means, we could get Biden declared the winner tonight.

[Storr]

This is really just me thinking through EV scenarios, but I thought it might be helpful for others.

Assuming Trump wins NC and GA (which aren't final atm) he'd need Pennsylvania and either Arizona or Nevada. His paths to 270 are very narrow (especially since he's currently down in the last two states I mentioned) with Biden winning Michigan and Wisconsin.

All possible outcomes assuming Trump holds on in NC and GA:
Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + NV = 274


Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + AZ = 279

Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + AZ + NV = 285

Biden + AZ + NV = 270

Biden + NV + PA = 273

Biden + AZ + PA = 284

Biden + AZ + NV + PA = 290

This isn’t right. Biden + PA alone is 273, no need for NV.

oof I'll chalk it up to only getting three hours of sleep last night, because election nerd things. will fix it.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21

It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Wait, what’s happened while I’ve been asleep? I thought Arizona got called ages ago

Only Fox and AP have called Arizona.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Wait, what’s happened while I’ve been asleep? I thought Arizona got called ages ago

Some doubt has been shed by people on Twitter based on remaining ballots, but AP and Fox are standing by their call.

[Silent Hunter]

Wait, what’s happened while I’ve been asleep? I thought Arizona got called ages ago

Fox and AP called it, but the others haven't. Some question about outstanding ballots that have a (quite small) chance of swinging the state to Trump.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21

It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Welp *unzips*

[HisGrace]

Weird how AP/Fox are confident enough to call Arizona yet haven't called Michigan yet which seems far more certain right now. Guess it does give me some hope that they're not just being gung-ho with that call.

FOX just called MI for Biden.  Give them some credit - they have been bullied by Trump for calling AZ early, and have not backed down, and will now get the same treatment for calling WI and MI for Biden.

Fox is terrible but that have not quite entered into Russia Today/state media territory and actually care about having a little smidgen of mainstream credibility. There are certain lines they won't cross like not screwing around with election results and not letting Hannity talk about pizzagate on the air.

[President Johnson]

If the election goes Biden's way and is declared even by Fox News, if Mitch and senate Republicans have backbone, they should tell Trump the game is over and he has to concede. But they're not Barry Goldwater and Howard Baker, maybe besides the usual suspects as Mitt. However, if Trump loses, Mitch owes nothing to him any longer. Maybe he is once doing the right thing.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21

It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[WD]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21
It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Trump is going to win again

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If NV counts their remaining votes, we very well may have a winner tonight. Of course, Trump is going to file all kinds of lawsuits, but I think this is over - especially if Biden does pull ahead by 100k votes in PA.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Meanwhile AP still hasn't given Biden Michigan.

Chances are Trump will only win NC and possibly GA out of everything left.

[Pulaski]

Thanks for the update guys. Sounds like Biden’s chances are increasing the longer this goes on then.

[JGibson]

At this point, all signs are pointing towards a Biden victory. NE-02, Wisconsin, and Michigan are in his column, and apparently Arizona too. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina are still unresolved.

[VBM]

Why was Georgia the only state where the polls seem to be accurate?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21
It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Woodbury has been quiet lol

Trump is going to win again

[politics_king]

Meanwhile AP still hasn't given Biden Michigan.

Chances are Trump will only win NC and possibly GA out of everything left.

I'm hoping for a North Carolina win for Biden & Cunningham, even if its less than 500 votes.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden on track in GA if the votes stay on trend. PA is also on trend, but Biden might run out of urban votes.

Looks like WI and MI were the red mirage and blue wave. 12 hours ago, both were heading in Trump's favour. Simply amazing result from mail-in ballots for Biden.

Just added NV.

I would say McDonald Trump's goose is cooked, even with Court appeals. These states were won by significant margins.

WI - Biden WINS by 20,500 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~67,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 23,400 of them. (34.8%)

MI - Biden WINS by 67,200 (97% counted)

Of the remaining ~166,686 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 50,000 of them. (29.9%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,300 of them. (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 68,000 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~306,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 187,000 of them. (61.1%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.4%)

PA - Biden down by 313,000 (84% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,144,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 728,000 of them. (63.7%)

Biden simply needs to win NV to win the Presidency with 270 EC votes.

GA, NC and PA would simply be a bonus.