Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[The Mikado]

Seriously, why do people ask "why did Putin start the war" when Putin has a really long and detailed essay up ON HIS WEBSITE conveniently translated into English that lays out his thoughts that Russian and Ukrainian distinction is the product of Polish and Austrian imperial influence as a sinister Western plot to de-Orthodox part of the Rus and that Vladimir Lenin's creation of a Ukrainian SSR with permission to secede prompted a great tragedy where Ukraine didn't fully "reintegrate" back into Russian culture?

Putin's thought process is out there for everyone to see. This isn't about NATO as much as some people want to make it about it.

It's weird to me how people will be like "Why didn't people know what Hitler wanted to do? They could've just read Mein Kampf" and then be like "Why would I read Putin's essay? That's not what he really wants." This dude spent months writing this as sitting President of Russia in a pandemic isolation in which he spent imbibing hardline Russian nationalist rhetoric nonstop. It's a great sign of where he's coming from, and where he's coming from is that Belarusians and Ukrainians are Polonized Russians who are at risk of leaving the Rus fold for good and it's his job to re"Gather the Russians Lands" like Catherine the Great (his favorite Russian leader, fwiw) and fully Russify the Belarusians and Ukrainians.

Putin does not keep his agenda secret and it's really really dumb how so many people act like it is some big mystery and has to be all about NATO and "Great Power Politics" rather than Russian nationalism and imperial conquest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Putin: spends the pandemic going ahead and writes a f**king 15 page long essay titled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" as a sitting head of state who presumably has other things to do than write essays. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 Gives a big hour long speech in which he spends most of it talking about Soviet nationalities policies of the 1920s and very little of it talking about NATO. Has a victory statement released prematurely two days into the invasion boasting about uniting the three East Slavic peoples, Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians, under the same roof again.

Tim Turner: "Is this about NATO?"

No, it's about Russian desire to subjugate and assimilate Ukraine! How f**king hard is this to understand? Putin is saying it in blatant terms and you just run off to this insane conspiracy theory about NATO expansion rather than accept that this is a war about imperial expansion, which is what Putin's been saying it was for literal years now.

Wasn't going to comment, but since you name-dropped me directly:
It's hardly an insane conspiracy theory to note that NATO is an anti-Russian alliance, and it's a straightforward application of realist geopolitical theory (Kissinger was bang-on right about this) that defensive alliances directed against a said country expanding and beginning to envelope it would make such a country insecure. But just because it makes said country insecure does not mean its complaints should be heeded.

It's also hardly insane to note that the current situation in Eastern Europe was shaped, part-and-parcel, by the US of A and its European allies. It's testament to how weak Russia's hand is now that its government feels forced to try to shift the balance in its favor this way - if Russia was more powerful, it would have more options.

It is true I firmly believe in prioritizing managing relations with China vs prioritizing managing relations with Russia. And thus I am open to some grand diplomatic settlement. But Russia having a weaker hand vs Ukraine is a generally a welcome development.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

When it comes down to cold hard facts, the case against taking Russia's geopolitical objectives into account in our assessment of the Ukraine situation is that the real world is not a game of Risk, nor is it an allegorical novel in which major world powers are the grave, serious Main Characters and all other countries, populations, non-state actors, and so forth are Dickensian figures of fun. It really is that simple.

[Sol]

Arguing with TimTurner is a waste of time.

The man literally believes that might makes right, really no better than BigSerg, just more agreeable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arguing with TimTurner is a waste of time.

The man literally believes that might makes right, really no better than BigSerg, just more agreeable.

I've literally changed my mind on multiple things since this war began (in some cases because of reasoned arguments with people), and I do not actually believe in might makes right (if you look at things overall), but you know what they say, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Stay on-topic, drive-by hater.
EDIT: I'll note that I've deleted no posts about this war, as far as I recall, no matter how wrong they were in retrospect. You can look through them if you like.

[BG-NY]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nypost/status/1520831090377859072

[KaiserDave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nypost/status/1520831090377859072

Who cares lol

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nypost/status/1520831090377859072

You confided in me on disqus that you were posting pro-Russia stuff on the general forum to upset a mod. Well what’s your motivation here then you immature clown?

[KaiserDave]

The Ghost of Kyiv was pretty clearly an effective propaganda play conflating the efforts of multiple pilots from the start to rally the Defense of Kyiv. It worked, Kyiv stood, and Russia is losing. I do not care that it wasn't true.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lavrov on the issue why they want to "denazify" Ukraine if their president is Jewish:
"Some of the worst antisemites are Jewish", Hitler "had Jewish blood" too.

Israelis are not amused.



https://twitter.com/ThomasHemberge1/status/1521029416775827459


https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1521032983997820928

[Woody]

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/more-civilians-evacuated-around-azovstal-plant-reuters-photographer-2022-05-01/

Haven't seen this mentioned. The UN has started evacuations from Azovstal. Zelensky has said that so far 100 civilians have been evacuated from the steel plant.

[Logical]

Beautiful new Bayraktar footage released this morning.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521030972598370306
Snake Island defenders continue to have the last laugh.

[CumbrianLefty]

"Hitler was Jewish/partly Jewish" is a not uncommon meme in certain circles.

Pretty rare for a senior government figure to go there, though.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Beautiful new Bayraktar footage released this morning.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521030972598370306
Snake Island defenders continue to have the last laugh.

Might be costlier for Russia to hold the Snake Island outpost without the Moskva’s air defences.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Hitler was Jewish/partly Jewish" is a not uncommon meme in certain circles.

Pretty rare for a senior government figure to go there, though.

Sounds like something Iran would do.

[Torie]

Regarding the above, it does come down to how readily Russia uses nukes, and what choices the West makes when subjected to nuclear blackmail. It does appear that this war is going to break Russia, unless Putin is removed. What does Putin do when it appears that he is losing his grip because the war is going that badly for him? The choices we make on this issue are very personal to each of us. It may come to the point that the outcome is going to be either a nuclear holocaust or the death of Putin. I hope and trust our spy network has a much better handle on the prospects and ways and means of terminating Putin when we reach the tipping point.

My personal temperament is that I don't submit to blackmail in a situation like this no matter what. But then I am an old without kids. It would be the height of hubris for me to bash those who make other choices.

Oh yes, Putin has done a splendid job of making NATO an anti Russian alliance once again. Actually, it would be more accurate that it is an anti Putin alliance. This is very much Putin's own personal war. If anyone can recommend a good non cliched read on just why Russian culture makes it susceptible to falling into the grip of all powerful totally toxic strong men, I would appreciate that.

Oh, one other thought. Europe is going to have to find a way to power itself not using Russian sources, and sooner rather than later. Once Europe does that, how is Russia going to make its living in the world? That shows how irrational and obsessed Putin really is, and why this whole cf is so dangerous - perhaps even dire.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Regarding the above, it does come down to how readily Russia uses nukes, and what choices the West makes when subjected to nuclear blackmail. It does appear that this war is going to break Russia, unless Putin is removed. What does Putin do when it appears that he is losing his grip because the war is going that badly for him? The choices we make on this issue are very personal to each of us. It may come to the point that the outcome is going to be either a nuclear holocaust or the death of Putin. I hope and trust our spy network has a much better handle on the prospects and ways and means of terminating Putin when we reach the tipping point.

My personal temperament is that I don't submit to blackmail in a situation like this no matter what. But then I am an old without kids. It would be the height of hubris for me to bash those who make other choices.

Oh yes, Putin has done a splendid job of making NATO an anti Russian alliance once again. Actually, it would be more accurate that it is an anti Putin alliance. This is very much Putin's own personal war. If anyone can recommend a good non cliched read on just why Russian culture makes it susceptible to falling into the grip of all powerful totally toxic strong men, I would appreciate that.

Oh, one other thought. Europe is going to have to find a way to power itself not using Russian sources, and sooner rather than later. Once Europe does that, how is Russia going to make its living in the world? That shows how irrational and obsessed Putin really is, and why this whole cf is so dangerous - perhaps even dire.

And atop this set of badly soured gambits, Russia is annoying Israel, one of the relatively few neutrals in this war and players that could broker a peace settlement.
Will India have to mediate the next round of serious peace talks, because Tel Aviv refused to do it? Lol.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1519861303061495810

The usual rogue's gallery of sh**tbags.

This in particular is not the right time to give oxygen to the kooks, much less empower them with attention. The kooks thrive on attention. It is not a court of law. To conflate the two, sometimes now, more than ever, is the road to ruin.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. "Just ignore it and it'll go away" didn't work with Donald Trump, and it won't work with extremists like these assholes. Call them out on their BS every single time.

[Hindsight was 2020]

There are rumblings on social media by local Ukrainians on the ground that Ukraine has retaken the town of Staryi Saltiv. Unfortunately it isn’t confirmed yet but if true would be huge news as this would mean that the Kharkiv forces would be fastly getting close to cutting the Izium forces supply line in half

[Badger]

Arguing with TimTurner is a waste of time.

The man literally believes that might makes right, really no better than BigSerg, just more agreeable.

I've literally changed my mind on multiple things since this war began (in some cases because of reasoned arguments with people), and I do not actually believe in might makes right (if you look at things overall), but you know what they say, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Stay on-topic, drive-by hater.
EDIT: I'll note that I've deleted no posts about this war, as far as I recall, no matter how wrong they were in retrospect. You can look through them if you like.

Great. Then you can have a long overdue change of opinion on this subject of Russia's motivation for invasion and just take the L. Russia's theory of Conquest here, key word being Conquest, is nothing more geopolitically complex than "Russia want, Russia take!!", which is as obvious as the nose on one's face.

[Badger]

Regarding the above, it does come down to how readily Russia uses nukes, and what choices the West makes when subjected to nuclear blackmail. It does appear that this war is going to break Russia, unless Putin is removed. What does Putin do when it appears that he is losing his grip because the war is going that badly for him? The choices we make on this issue are very personal to each of us. It may come to the point that the outcome is going to be either a nuclear holocaust or the death of Putin. I hope and trust our spy network has a much better handle on the prospects and ways and means of terminating Putin when we reach the tipping point.

My personal temperament is that I don't submit to blackmail in a situation like this no matter what. But then I am an old without kids. It would be the height of hubris for me to bash those who make other choices.

Oh yes, Putin has done a splendid job of making NATO an anti Russian alliance once again. Actually, it would be more accurate that it is an anti Putin alliance. This is very much Putin's own personal war. If anyone can recommend a good non cliched read on just why Russian culture makes it susceptible to falling into the grip of all powerful totally toxic strong men, I would appreciate that.

Oh, one other thought. Europe is going to have to find a way to power itself not using Russian sources, and sooner rather than later. Once Europe does that, how is Russia going to make its living in the world? That shows how irrational and obsessed Putin really is, and why this whole cf is so dangerous - perhaps even dire.

And atop this set of badly soured gambits, Russia is annoying Israel, one of the relatively few neutrals in this war and players that could broker a peace settlement.
Will India have to mediate the next round of serious peace talks, because Tel Aviv refused to do it? Lol.

Can someone more knowledgeable about Israeli foreign policy explain to me why, despite their close ties with the US in the west, they are relatively neutral in the Russia Ukraine war?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regarding the above, it does come down to how readily Russia uses nukes, and what choices the West makes when subjected to nuclear blackmail. It does appear that this war is going to break Russia, unless Putin is removed. What does Putin do when it appears that he is losing his grip because the war is going that badly for him? The choices we make on this issue are very personal to each of us. It may come to the point that the outcome is going to be either a nuclear holocaust or the death of Putin. I hope and trust our spy network has a much better handle on the prospects and ways and means of terminating Putin when we reach the tipping point.

My personal temperament is that I don't submit to blackmail in a situation like this no matter what. But then I am an old without kids. It would be the height of hubris for me to bash those who make other choices.

Oh yes, Putin has done a splendid job of making NATO an anti Russian alliance once again. Actually, it would be more accurate that it is an anti Putin alliance. This is very much Putin's own personal war. If anyone can recommend a good non cliched read on just why Russian culture makes it susceptible to falling into the grip of all powerful totally toxic strong men, I would appreciate that.

Oh, one other thought. Europe is going to have to find a way to power itself not using Russian sources, and sooner rather than later. Once Europe does that, how is Russia going to make its living in the world? That shows how irrational and obsessed Putin really is, and why this whole cf is so dangerous - perhaps even dire.

And atop this set of badly soured gambits, Russia is annoying Israel, one of the relatively few neutrals in this war and players that could broker a peace settlement.
Will India have to mediate the next round of serious peace talks, because Tel Aviv refused to do it? Lol.

Can someone more knowledgeable about Israeli foreign policy explain to me why, despite their close ties with the US in the west, they are relatively neutral in the Russia Ukraine war?

Russian immigration to Israel? They make up about 15% of Israel's population.

[Torie]

Regarding the above, it does come down to how readily Russia uses nukes, and what choices the West makes when subjected to nuclear blackmail. It does appear that this war is going to break Russia, unless Putin is removed. What does Putin do when it appears that he is losing his grip because the war is going that badly for him? The choices we make on this issue are very personal to each of us. It may come to the point that the outcome is going to be either a nuclear holocaust or the death of Putin. I hope and trust our spy network has a much better handle on the prospects and ways and means of terminating Putin when we reach the tipping point.

My personal temperament is that I don't submit to blackmail in a situation like this no matter what. But then I am an old without kids. It would be the height of hubris for me to bash those who make other choices.

Oh yes, Putin has done a splendid job of making NATO an anti Russian alliance once again. Actually, it would be more accurate that it is an anti Putin alliance. This is very much Putin's own personal war. If anyone can recommend a good non cliched read on just why Russian culture makes it susceptible to falling into the grip of all powerful totally toxic strong men, I would appreciate that.

Oh, one other thought. Europe is going to have to find a way to power itself not using Russian sources, and sooner rather than later. Once Europe does that, how is Russia going to make its living in the world? That shows how irrational and obsessed Putin really is, and why this whole cf is so dangerous - perhaps even dire.

And atop this set of badly soured gambits, Russia is annoying Israel, one of the relatively few neutrals in this war and players that could broker a peace settlement.
Will India have to mediate the next round of serious peace talks, because Tel Aviv refused to do it? Lol.

Can someone more knowledgeable about Israeli foreign policy explain to me why, despite their close ties with the US in the west, they are relatively neutral in the Russia Ukraine war?

It's Syria more than anything else is my impression. But I suspect Russia's involvement
in that theater is going to be truncated due to its being distracted by more pressing issues.
In other news, Putin apparently thinks Jews are the master race. Who knew?

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/israel-wont-stick-out-its-neck-for-ukraine-its-because-of-russia/

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1521113120042885121?s=20&t=Y7xe2vwYfG7O...

Once again, one has to wonder if sabotage, incompetence, or a lack of replacement parts taking their toll on those industries ordered to produce as fast as possible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A military can't run if everyone is sitting around skimming off the top to the point that there is barely anything left to actually go towards actual operations.

Even Russian writers who generally take care to be extremely careful about politics would often happily slip in jokes and dark references to corruption in the military in their work - up until a few months ago, anyway. Which gives an indication of a few things.