UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Lib Dem line in Mid Beds is quite defensive, sounds more like they're geared up for third place than anything else.

It's almost like they're gearing up to repeat the line they came up with in Batley & Spen that their campaigning took Tory votes which were never going Labour.

[Blair]

It wasn’t even biblical levels of rains today either!

[Sestak]

What time roughly should they finish the counts in these seats?

[Blair]

What time roughly should they finish the counts in these seats?

1.30am for Mid Beds and 3.30am for Tamworth (I think might be wrong way round!)

[YL]

What time roughly should they finish the counts in these seats?

1.30am for Mid Beds and 3.30am for Tamworth (I think might be wrong way round!)

No, I think that's the right way round.  But I wouldn't put too much faith in these times, even if there aren't any recounts.

[Wiswylfen]

Also, I think everyone should perhaps prepare for the Tamworth election in two weeks to potentially "break the swingometer." Selby was itself the second largest swing from Tory to Labour ever in a by-election, with a 23.5 point two-party swing or 47.5 point change. This falls behind the 1994 Dudley West by-election,  with a 29 point swing or 58 point direct change.

Tamworth has a larger Tory majority than Selby, the circumstances surrounding it are better for Labour,  and we just got even more confirmation last night that Tamworth viscerally wants the Tories gone. It's not hard to imagine Dudley West getting surpassed.

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

I will now accept my accolades.

[Mike88]

35.9% turnout in Tamworth.

44.0% turnout in Mid Bedfordshire.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1715149656953328117
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1715153322871521673
As they say - big if true.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1715153322871521673
As they say - big if true.

Lol at the LibDem spin trying to take credit for Labour's victory.

[Torrain]

Yeah - it’s a weird line to take. If Labour do win, they’re piggybacking on a campaign they tried badly to suppress. And if Labour lose, they’ll be pilloried for vote-splitting.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1715160138229625165

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1715160138229625165

This "senior source" could well be a Labour source speaking off the record, as Labour aren't officially claiming victory yet.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1715160138229625165

This "senior source" could well be a Labour source speaking off the record, as Labour aren't officially claiming victory yet.

It also in theory could be accurate, since we should be approaching a declaration there soon, and its not everything's very secret when the work is done.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1715153322871521673
As they say - big if true.

Lol at the LibDem spin trying to take credit for Labour's victory.

I think the key spin here is "Taken enough Tory Votes" cause thats what the Lib-Dems national focus is right now. So from the perspective of their partisans, the larger voter movement from Blue to Orange should be the story the press runs with, and thats what they are trying to set the stage for. Is it accurate? Well...

[Torrain]

Peter Kyle (who’s been running the show down there), says Labour have done “very well” in Mid Beds. Still not calling it, but…

[YL]

If some of these Mid Beds rumours are true the scale of the Tory collapse is going to be up there with North Shropshire.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1715173242040643752

[Oryxslayer]

At the same time the Labour candidate is all but claiming victory right now on Sky News in Tamworth.

[Torrain]

Aye, and Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth is doing some sort of comedy routine on the BBC. All the body language says they’re home and dry. Mixed signals!

[YL]

This Staffs journalist has been quite reliable in the past:

https://twitter.com/journoontheedge/status/1715177319394869444

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Tamworth declaration possibly within ten minutes according to Sky

[YL]

Candidates gathering on the stage at Tamworth...

[Wiswylfen]

Not the Conservative candidate (yet).

[Oryxslayer]

Tory Candidate Andrew Cooper may be a no-show.

[Sestak]

COOPER (CON) - 10,403
EDWARDS (LAB) - 11,719

[YL]

Tamworth

Labour 11719 (45.8%, +22.1)
Con 10403 (40.7%, -25.6)
Reform UK 1373 (5.4%, new)
Britain First 580 (2.3%, new)
UKIP 436 (1.7%, -0.1)
Lib Dem 417 (1.6%, -3.6)
Green 417 (1.6%, -0.4)
OMRLP 155 (0.6%, new)
Longman 86 (0.3%, new)

Lab gain from Con
Majority 1316
Swing 23.8%