New Zealand political discussion thread

[CumbrianLefty]

Just fills you with confidence

[Pericles]

New PM delivers double-poll lead for Labour.

The Newshub poll

Maori Party and NZ First both polled around 2%. This has Labour and the Greens at 58 seats to 60 for National, while the Maori Party gets 2 seats so that could be a crazy hung 60-60 parliament.
Preferred Prime Minister numbers were low for both with Jacinda still on 12% and Seymour on 8%. Their net trust ratings though were Hipkins +26.0% and Luxon -6.9%.


The 1News/Kantar poll

Similarly, the Maori Party decides control, though the seat numbers for the blocs are the opposite of the Newshub poll (60 vs 58).
That poll gave these preferred PM numbers.

[Dr. Cynic]

That has to feel good for Labour since they've had nothing but bad news for the last 6 or so months. Actually kind of surprising that Hipkins is starting off so strong (not that he was bad in Cabinet or anything), but Labour just hasn't had any kind of mojo.

[CumbrianLefty]

What this polling really shows is that there is little genuine enthusiasm for the NP.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Wayne Brown, come on down.

[CumbrianLefty]

Elect in haste, repent at leisure. Or something.

[Pericles]

New Zealand has been hit again, with Cyclone Gabrielle wrecking destruction through the North Island. In particular, the Hawkes Bay has suffered significant damage, many communities have been cut off by flooding and hundreds of thousands of people have suffered power cuts. Four people are confirmed to have died so far. This has been the third declared national emergency in recent years, along with the Christchurch earthquakes and the arrival of Covid in 2020.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/131237171/cyclone-gabrielle-fears-cyclone-death-will-rise-as-bodies-seen-floating-in-water

[AustralianSwingVoter]

'Don't f****** come and talk to me' - Wayne Brown snaps at journo

Lmao.

He reiterated his support for the arts and culture community and gave the example that he’d been told recently that the reason the sculptures at Auckland’s Gibbs Farm don’t fall down “is because of my engineering”.

Lmfao

[Pericles]

Latest poll results, the first post-Cyclone Gabrielle public poll.


In terms of seats, this is in some ways a return to 2017. Labour got 46 seats then too and National and ACT added up to 57 seats then too.


It's a good result, though a bit surprising the post-Gabrielle surge went to the Greens instead of Labour. If verified by more polls, maybe climate action will force its way up the agenda.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ardern on just 2%?

How soon they forget

[Pericles]

Minister brutally sacked for leaking cabinet discussions to donors
The Minister involved, Stuart Nash, was already on his final warning and has had a horror few weeks as reports of his idiotic and inappropriate actions came to light. He had tried to interfere in a specific case and push for the Police to appeal a sentence, and then boasted about it on national radio. He first lost his position as Police Minister, and as more similar breaches of the Cabinet Manual were revealed, he was demoted to the bottom of the 'cabinet ranking'. Hipkins came across as firm each time but the fact that there had to be more than one response means in hindsight he left it later than it should have been. So far Nash looks to be stupid rather than corrupt, but Ministers do need to know better.

Nash is the grandson of Walter Nash, who helped establish the welfare state as Finance Minister in the 1930s and was the third ever Labour PM. His Napier electorate is also not a safe Labour seat but was already going to be a competitive race, so that's one to watch.

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh dear, surely he will also be discouraged from standing again as an MP after all that.

[Pericles]

Jacinda Ardern gave her valedictory speech yesterday, and is now no longer an MP. She has vowed never to return to politics. It has made me sad to see her go, she provided amazing leadership when we needed it and her integrity is very admirable. She certainly will be remembered for a long time to come, and overall it will be positive imo.

How exactly history judges her is hard to know-I expect her successful Covid response will be the headline, but her domestic agenda is obviously unfinished. In areas like climate and child poverty, there has been noticeable progress but it has also been insufficient compared to her ambitions. The Covid legacy is also tainted by the fact that her ability to unify the nation could not sustain itself-I don't blame her for the anti vax riot at parliament last year but there was a conspiratorial, and often racist and sexist backlash to her.

Here are some highlights from her speech, so you can judge for yourselves.

[Pericles]

The Three Waters reforms have been amended and rebranded. It is now the Affordable Water Reforms, and there are now 10 regional entities managing water infrastructure instead of 4. That loses some of the economies of scale that the gvernment had promoted, but it means local councils get more of a voice. Labour still promises this will mean water infrastructure is improved (so towns of thousands of people don't get sick like Havelock North in 2016) and that it will save people money on local council rates. National and ACT dismissed the reforms.

This also did not change the co-governance component that has been highly divisive, where Maori get an equal say in the selection of the boards of these regional entities. At least the new Local Government Minister Kieran McAnulty said "I think we nailed it", but whether this controversy impacts the election much (and fixes water infrastructure if it survives) remains to be seen.

[Cassius]

Top tier display of Bidenspeak from the commander-in-chief:

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/13/white-house-corrects-black-and-tans-to-all-blacks-after-biden-gaffe

[Pericles]

Sitting cabinet Minister Meka Whaitiri, who has been a Labour MP since 2013 and holds a safe seat, has defected to the Maori Party. It is a very odd situation-the PM was caught completely unaware and no explanation has been given.  This looks like good news for the Maori Party and makes something like 3-4 seats more plausible, which imo is a bad thing for the country because I'd rather they do not hold the balance of power.

[Sol]

Sitting cabinet Minister Meka Whaitiri, who has been a Labour MP since 2013 and holds a safe seat, has defected to the Maori Party. It is a very odd situation-the PM was caught completely unaware and no explanation has been given.  This looks like good news for the Maori Party and makes something like 3-4 seats more plausible, which imo is a bad thing for the country because I'd rather they do not hold the balance of power.

Why not?

[Pericles]

Sitting cabinet Minister Meka Whaitiri, who has been a Labour MP since 2013 and holds a safe seat, has defected to the Maori Party. It is a very odd situation-the PM was caught completely unaware and no explanation has been given.  This looks like good news for the Maori Party and makes something like 3-4 seats more plausible, which imo is a bad thing for the country because I'd rather they do not hold the balance of power.

Why not?

I don't actually think we need much more constitutional change to improve Maori rights. I don't think their high profile is good for race relations or serious policy. This kind of rhetoric at best is just divisive for no good reason, and at worst actually shifts policy in the wrong direction.

I think it's different from including co-governance or management in resources that Maori already have a recognised interest in, that is sensible and practical. Despite the wild rhetoric, it does not change our democracy.

Most likely, they will be ineffective like they were when supporting National. I'd prefer just to have Labour and the Greens though, but clearly the election might be too close for that to be possible.

[Pericles]

Luxon has ruled out working with the Maori Party. This confirms what was always likely, that the outcome shown in most polls-where neither bloc can govern without Maori Party support, means a re-elected Labour government. If there is an impact, it should boost the Maori Party slightly while hurting Labour with moderate Pakeha voters.

[JimJamUK]

Luxon has ruled out working with the Maori Party. This confirms what was always likely, that the outcome shown in most polls-where neither bloc can govern without Maori Party support, means a re-elected Labour government. If there is an impact, it should boost the Maori Party slightly while hurting Labour with moderate Pakeha voters.

Could Labour rule it out as well? What’s their thinking about the Māori Party?

[Pericles]

Luxon has ruled out working with the Maori Party. This confirms what was always likely, that the outcome shown in most polls-where neither bloc can govern without Maori Party support, means a re-elected Labour government. If there is an impact, it should boost the Maori Party slightly while hurting Labour with moderate Pakeha voters.

Could Labour rule it out as well? What’s their thinking about the Māori Party?

Labour clearly regard the Maori Party as a potential support partner, they have been playing nice. They and the Speaker generously interpreted the law around defecting MPs so that Meka Whaitiri was not automatically expelled from Parliament as perhaps she should have been.

National is using this to start a 'coalition of chaos' attack on Labour, which you'd find familiar. I think it's less credible to use against an incumbent majority government, especially when David Seymour and maybe even Winston Peters are still support partners for National.

[Pericles]

Latest poll results. This election will be a good one to watch, it is as close as it gets, though as a New Zealander I am actually worried about the outcome.

The Maori Party is the only other party to get parliamentary representation, they poll at 3.5% of the vote.
National and ACT end up on 59 seats, Labour and the Greens end up on 56, but 61 are required for a majority and so Labour, the Greens, and the Maori Party add up to exactly 61 seats.

David Seymour and Jacinda Ardern both polled around 8% for preferred Prime Minister.
This is the alarming number for National, especially when 50% say Hipkins is in touch.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Luxon has ruled out working with the Maori Party. This confirms what was always likely, that the outcome shown in most polls-where neither bloc can govern without Maori Party support, means a re-elected Labour government. If there is an impact, it should boost the Maori Party slightly while hurting Labour with moderate Pakeha voters.

Could Labour rule it out as well? What’s their thinking about the Māori Party?

Labour clearly regard the Maori Party as a potential support partner, they have been playing nice. They and the Speaker generously interpreted the law around defecting MPs so that Meka Whaitiri was not automatically expelled from Parliament as perhaps she should have been.

National is using this to start a 'coalition of chaos' attack on Labour, which you'd find familiar. I think it's less credible to use against an incumbent majority government, especially when David Seymour and maybe even Winston Peters are still support partners for National.

Oh, what are the chances New Zealand First gets into Parliament?

[Pericles]

Luxon has ruled out working with the Maori Party. This confirms what was always likely, that the outcome shown in most polls-where neither bloc can govern without Maori Party support, means a re-elected Labour government. If there is an impact, it should boost the Maori Party slightly while hurting Labour with moderate Pakeha voters.

Could Labour rule it out as well? What’s their thinking about the Māori Party?

Labour clearly regard the Maori Party as a potential support partner, they have been playing nice. They and the Speaker generously interpreted the law around defecting MPs so that Meka Whaitiri was not automatically expelled from Parliament as perhaps she should have been.

National is using this to start a 'coalition of chaos' attack on Labour, which you'd find familiar. I think it's less credible to use against an incumbent majority government, especially when David Seymour and maybe even Winston Peters are still support partners for National.

Oh, what are the chances New Zealand First gets into Parliament?

Unlikely but not impossible, they have polled below 5% before only to surge.

I have created a thread specifically for the general election, since it is getting actually quite close now (5 months).

[CumbrianLefty]

The poll graphics above don't seem to be showing.