New Zealand political discussion thread

[Pericles]

This thread is where Atlas can discuss New Zealand politics and important developments in it. 2019 looks like a dramatic year, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said this would be a 'year of delivery' for her government(https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/110251271/jacinda-ardern-says-2019-year-of-delivery-for-government), and it's hard to argue with that. "Ardern singled out climate change, housing, mental health, and the recommendations of the tax working group as key areas of focus." The government is however in trouble with its promises on housing, its Kiwibuild program is set to only complete 300 homes in its first year, short of the target of 1000 homes, with 100,000 homes being the target over the course of 10 years. In the next week the Tax Working Group will deliver its recommendations, and it is expected to recommend a controversial capital gains tax-which some consider a political liability for Labour. The opposition National Party sought to get out ahead of the tax debate by proposing to adjust tax brackets every 3 years based on inflation and Treasury recommendations to avoid 'bracket creep', though this proposal has been criticized as both unaffordable and having little impact on the cost of living. National has also had its own troubles with the ongoing Jami Lee-Ross scandal, which is a complicated story deserving at least one full post of its own and which has seen many acts of stupidity on the National Party side. There is some speculation that National leader Simon Bridges-who has very poor personal approval ratings-will be unseated as National Party leader. Despite this and Jacinda's popularity, the National Party's party vote appears to still be above 40%, but probably not enough to form a government and there has been very little polling in New Zealand lately. Of course the election isn't this year and given how quickly the political situation changed at the last election the outcome in 2020 cannot be predicted for certain.

[Pericles]

After a contentious public debate Jacinda Ardern had ruled out introducing a capital gains tax. Winston Peters' opposition as well as polling showing strong public opposition to the proposed tax appear to have been major factors in the decision, as Jacinda said there was "no mandate" for a CGT (yet ruled out getting a mandate for a CGT at the next election). Simon Bridges is probably done now that his last hope for some momentum has been eliminated, but it shows a disappointing lack of courage from the government at a time when their political capital is the highest.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112099876/live-capital-gains-tax-ruled-out-by-government-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-tax-working-group

[Pericles]

After a contentious public debate Jacinda Ardern had ruled out introducing a capital gains tax. Winston Peters' opposition as well as polling showing strong public opposition to the proposed tax appear to have been major factors in the decision, as Jacinda said there was "no mandate" for a CGT (yet ruled out getting a mandate for a CGT at the next election). Simon Bridges is probably done now that his last hope for some momentum has been eliminated, but it shows a disappointing lack of courage from the government at a time when their political capital is the highest.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112099876/live-capital-gains-tax-ruled-out-by-government-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-tax-working-group

Does Bridges even contest the next election or does National try to make a play to change things up?

Bridges' leadership certainly looks like it is in jeopardy. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/04/national-mps-speaking-out-against-leader-simon-bridges.html

Judith Collins, the current Housing spokesperson for National, looks like the biggest threat to Bridges. She would be a risk for National but perhaps one worth taking given they are down 8 points against Labour and losing by a landslide once the coalition partners are added in. Collins has already drawn even with Bridges in the preferred Prime Minister polls. However given Collins is a polarizing figure a Scott Morrison scenario where someone sneaks up through the middle is possible, Rodney MP Mark Mitchell would be my bet for that role (Mitchell ran for the leadership in February 2018 and he said he dropped out on the day of the ballot, however on that day leaks came of him dropping out and he denied it at the time so Bridges may have committed dirty tricks and he tried to cover up for him to save the party face).
National may still be reluctant to change leaders given they don't want to go through the merry-go round of leadership changes and division that Labour experienced from 2008-2017. Their polling doesn't seem that bad given they're still in the 40s, which is much higher than Labour polled in Opposition or even higher than what Labour got in the last election. However their hopes of forming government seem to be fading given that Labour has surged ahead of them and they aren't in the high 40s where they'd probably need to be to form government on their own. Bridges hasn't performed very well-in his latest blunder after the Christchurch shooting National's petition on their website against joining the UN Migration Pact was deleted, which Bridges first attributed to routine website changes weeks before and when it was clear that wasn't true he blamed "an emotional junior staffer" despite the fact the person who deleted it was someone who had worked for the party for 6 years. Bridges hasn't quite escaped the Jami Lee Ross scandal with Ross still on the backbenches as an Independent and he is now being investigated by the Serious Fraud Office. It's not unheard of for leaders to come back from deep unpopularity, Helen Clark had 2% for preferred PM in 1996 and polled in the teens yet ran a strong campaign and came close behind National and then won the next election comfortably. However it seems unlikely that Bridges will be able to connect with the public and he'll probably not be leader by the next election at the way things are going.

[Pericles]

A 'binding' referendum on cannabis legalization will be held along with the 2020 election-I say 'binding' as while the government calls it a binding referendum the vote will be on a draft bill but that bill won't automatically come into effect with a Yes vote, parliament would need to then pass the bill. That is better than a lot of the other possibilities (eg a referendum on just decriminalization or a referendum without a bill clearly outlining the legal status of cannabis for a Yes vote), however it is not ideal as the bill could be amended and watered down after a Yes vote. All parties in government have promised to enact the draft bill if there is a Yes vote, but National refuses yet to make that promise. The proposals overall seem pretty good and I'd definitely vote Yes, though I am a bit unsure as to why the age is at 20 (given New Zealand's drinking age is 18 and the proposed laws for cannabis would be stricter than for alcohol, this could have the effect of boosting arguments that cannabis is something uniquely dangerous). It does look like this will result in a Yes vote, though I don't want to say such an outcome is certain until it happens.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/112513203/cannabis-law-will-not-be-passed-ahead-of-referendum-would-set-age-at-20

The 2020 cannabis referendum will be a simple yes/no question on a piece of draft law that had not yet passed, Justice Minister Andrew Little says.

This means a future Government would have to actually enact a law change if voted for, meaning it is not binding, although Little is describing it as such.

If the public endorsed the legislation it would:

Legalise personal use and purchase at age 20
Only allow sale at a licensed premises
Only allow consumption at a licensed premises or private property
Would allow limited home-growing
Ban all advertising for cannabis products

The government seemed to rule out a referendum on changes to MMP which had been a possibility, ruling out 'government-initiated' referenda makes it uncertain as to whether there could still be a referendum on euthanasia reform as that is a member's bill so I think it could still go to a public vote, this may be necessary to pass the bill given NZ First seems to have made their support for that reform conditional on it going to a referendum, and the upcoming vote on the bill in a few weeks looks to be a close one with a genuinely uncertain outcome(https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/112369026/euthanasia-bill-has-decent-but-not-certain-chance-of-surviving-second-reading).

[Pericles]

NZ today saw the introduction of the government's 'Wellbeing budget' which shifts government focus to increasing wellbeing and measures of wellbeing not just a sole focus on GDP. The biggest winner of the budget was mental health-an area in dire need of increased funding-with a boost of nearly $2 billion.

Budget 2019 - dubbed the Wellbeing Budget - has been announced, revealing billions of dollars in funding for mental health, families, KiwiRail and infrastructure for schools and hospitals.

What stands out?

The Government is investing $1.9 billion in improving mental health services - something it heavily foreshadowed ahead of the Wellbeing Budget's release.

That includes a $455 million package to offer frontline services for 325,000 people who need mental health support before they experience major problems.

It's also injecting a significant amount of money into trying to improve families' wellbeing through a $1.1 billion investment in child poverty reduction.

The Budget sets aside $256.6 million in operational funding to provide a payment of $150 per student to decile 1-7 state and state-integrated schools that "agree not to request donations from parents". 

That's on top of the Government's recent announcement that the $76.60 NCEA fees that families pay every year would be scrapped.

To help beneficiaries, $320.2 million over four years has been set aside to index benefits to average wage increases. Currently, benefits are indexed to the Consumer Price Index.

The Government already announced earlier this month it would allocate more than $200 million over four years to respond to recommendations to improve the welfare system.

KiwiRail is another big winner in Budget 2019 - a boost of over $1 billion in funding for the programme to support its redevelopment.

Much ot that will go on buying new wagons and upgrading existing tracks, with $35 million to investigate purchasing new Cook Strait ferries.

Schools will get $1.2 billion over 10 years to support school property investment. That compares to $1.7 billion for hospitals and facilities over two years - $850 million each year.

The Government's said one of its five Budget priorities is to lift Māori opportunities, and that includes an $80 million for Whanau Ora over four years.

New Zealand's spy agencies will get a $50 million boost, with $11 million in operating funding for the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS), and $39 million for the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB).

The Government has also increased the rolling four-year capital allowance announced in December 2018 and will now spend another $1.7 billion to total $14.8 billion.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/05/budget-2019-billions-of-dollars-for-mental-health-children-beneficiaries-and-trains.amp.html

There was some drama over the last few days as the National Party leaked a Treasury budget documents ahead of Budget Day. This led to accusations that National hacked Treasury while Simon Bridges accused the government of smearing National and demanded the Finance Minister's resignation. It seems the leak was ultimately not due to hacking but human error as the documents could be accessed on the Treasury website. This probably will lead to someone's resignation bit National doesn't look great either with their leaks and juvenile attempts to score political points. The situation regarding the leak still isn't fully clear at this point.

[Pericles]

It's weird that the two polls have such diverging narratives, I'm more inclined to believe the Newshub one myself, particularly because they were the most accurate in 2017 (Colmar Brunton had similar numbers in their final poll but they went from showing multiple Labour leads to showing a 9-point National lead). The average of the two polls is Labour 46.4%, National 40.7%, Greens 6.1%, NZ First 3.9%, so Simon Bridges may have gotten lucky with the Colmar Brunton poll as otherwise he'd be in the dreaded 30s, but Judith Collins getting ahead of him is a bad sign for him.

With the budget leak, it seemed like a bunch of pointless theatrics given the budget was going to be published a few days afterwards anyway and just an attempt by National to try and make Labour look bad. It's a bit similar to the expenses saga in which people put way too much importance on a leak of something that was going to be released anyway. 

[Pericles]

It's weird that the two polls have such diverging narratives, I'm more inclined to believe the Newshub one myself, particularly because they were the most accurate in 2017 (Colmar Brunton had similar numbers in their final poll but they went from showing multiple Labour leads to showing a 9-point National lead). The average of the two polls is Labour 46.4%, National 40.7%, Greens 6.1%, NZ First 3.9%, so Simon Bridges may have gotten lucky with the Colmar Brunton poll as otherwise he'd be in the dreaded 30s, but Judith Collins getting ahead of him is a bad sign for him.

With the budget leak, it seemed like a bunch of pointless theatrics given the budget was going to be published a few days afterwards anyway and just an attempt by National to try and make Labour look bad. It's a bit similar to the expenses saga in which people put way too much importance on a leak of something that was going to be released anyway. 

Yeah, I'd probably agree that the Newshub poll holds a bit more weight. As for why the difference occurred, the only thing I can think of is that the Newshub poll was taken 30 May – 7 Jun whereas the One news one was 4–8 Jun, but I can't really see any reason why Labour's numbers would have been lower in those last few days than in the rest so idk. From the looks of it though, the Budget scandal either didn't have a negative impact on Labour at all (possibly even impacting National more) or if it did then the effect wasn't massive.

Well for a few of those days the narrative was going around in the media that the Treasury was hacked and National was involved, and now that has been disproven the government, or at least the Treasury, look worse while National don't look like they've been doing dirty tricks (or at least less, National probably has been doing some other dirty tricks). That still doesn't pass as a plausible explanation for such a huge difference, and the confusing thing too is that the trends are way different in the polls with Newshub showing National losing 4.2% and Labour gaining 3.3% while Colmar Brunton showing National gaining 4% and Labour losing 6%. So usually when polls differ you can tell how things are going by the direction of the trend, but not this time. One of them is probably an outlier, but given how rare polling is in NZ it will be a long time, if ever, until we know which one was the outlier.

[Pericles]

The End of Life Choice bill, a member's bill (by ACT Party leader David Seymour, who is of course not in government) to legalize euthanasia passed its second reading 70-50.

33 Labour MPs voted for the bill, including leader Jacinda Ardern, while 13 did not. 18 National MPs voted for the bill, while 37 - including leader Simon Bridges - did not.

The bill in its current form would allow someone with a terminal illness that is likely to kill them within six months, or a "grievous and irremediable medical condition", the option of requesting assisted dying.

The bill will likely be further amended to limit euthanasia only to the terminally ill and to allow a public referendum in 2020 on the bill (in order to maintain NZ First's support). From the first reading to the second reading 9 MPs switched their votes from yes to no while 3 MPs (including potential National Party leadership contender Judith Collins) switched their votes from no to yes. The committee of the whole house stage may now take several months before the bill's third reading-the final parliamentary vote on it-but the odds look good but not safe for it to pass.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/113795416/euthanasia-bill-passes-second-reading

At the bottom of the article there is a full list of which MPs voted yes and no on the bill and their party.

[Pericles]

This week, the government announced that it has a $7.5 billion budget surplus (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/116405734/massive-75-billion-surplus-shows-room-for-tax-cuts-and-spending).

This seems to be a sign that Labour is managing the economy well (the myth that "Labour can't manage the economy" never had much evidence behind it though). Growth may be slowing a bit, but New Zealand's economy still growing pretty well and is doing nicely compared to other countries, and unemployment has also been falling to the lowest levels in over a decade. The National Party likes to point to business confidence being low to say the economy is doing badly, but these surveys are more of an indication as to whether National or Labour is in government than on how the actual economy is doing, business confidence surged in the GFC because National became the government instead of Labour at the same time.

There is some debate as to what should be done with the surplus. National Party leader Simon Bridges has said that this shows the government is "over-taxing" (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/if-youve-got-7-5-billion-surplus-you-over-taxing-bridges-calls-government-after-opening-books). Related to this is that when Labour got into government it repealed the tax cuts National instituted (the tax cuts were never implemented, so National saying that voters would get a tax hike in the last election was arguably deceptive), which benefited upper income earners, and used that to fund its Families Package. There have been suggestions that economic stimulus is needed due to international economic uncertainty. Finance Minister Grant Robertson does sound open to this. There are also a lot of social problems that need addressing like healthcare, education (there have been several teachers and nurses strikes recently which emphasize this), housing and welfare benefits also could be increased. I personally think these are higher priorities than tax cuts and these issues do really need to be addressed.

[Pericles]

Most of the results for New Zealand's local body elections have been announced, there are still some special votes to count.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-body-elections/116401573/local-body-elections-2019-whos-in-and-whos-out-in-your-local-government
In Wellington, the capital city, which is usually reliably Labour, the Labour candidate and incumbent Mayor Justin Lester is currently behind Andy Foster by 715 votes, with 5,563 votes still to be counted (those types of votes tend to lean left, so the race hasn't been called). Foster has run and lost for mayor twice before, he has described himself as a 'blue green' (so a person with center-right views who is also an environmentalist), and this time was well-financed with the backing of Peter Jackson.
In Auckland, incumbent Phil Goff won in a landslide over challenger John Tamihere (whose campaign was described as populist). Goff has been in politics a long time, having been in parliament in the 1980s and leader of the Labour Party from 2008 to 2011.
New Zealand has its first ever Green Party mayor, Aaron Hawkins in Dunedin, which is interesting. In Invercargill, incumbent Tim Shadbolt, who has been mayor there since 1993, won another term, and incumbent Lianne Dalziel (who's affiliated with the Labour Party) was also re-elected. Turnout was relatively low, seems to be around 40%, and it's unclear whether it increased or decreased from in 2016. There does seem to be a bit more diversity and youth in local government. Another notable result is that the youngest mayor ever in New Zealand, Campbell Barry, was elected, defeating a long-time incumbent in Lower Hutt. He is also a member of the Labour Party.
Overall, with the exception of Wellington, this seems to be a good result for the left. However, local elections aren't super partisan like say midterm elections in the US, and most candidates aren't affiliated with a political party, though the Labour Party is the biggest on having candidates be affiliated with the party (the National Party, as far as I know, did not officially run any candidates in the local elections)

[Pericles]

Update: The Wellington results have been updated, and now there are only 1,700 special votes left to count. Andy Foster leads by a 503-vote margin with 26,707 votes to 26,204 for Justin Lester. Turnout was also down in this race, falling from 45% in 2016 to around 40% this time. The race has been called for Foster.

[Pericles]

Yeah Winston's position seems ironic, I heard him in a speech say "if you can't get 5% you're no darn good", especially given he's fallen below 5% twice and could well do so again in 2020.

[Pericles]

This poll isn't great for Labour, and the trends are concerning. However, it does depend on what you compare the poll to. If you compare it to the last election, the results look more favourable for Labour.

National: 56_ 43.9%(-0.5%)
Labour: 54+8 41.6%(+4.7%)
Green: 8_ 6.3%(_)
ACT: 2+1 1.4%(+0.9%)
NZ First: 0-9 4.0%(-3.2%)
120 seats
61 for majority

And of course, as an actual election outcome a Labour-Greens coalition without NZ First would be a great result and cause a leftward shift in policy.

I think it's best to take a balanced approach and think about the trends between different polls as well as the trends from the last election. Labour getting 51% of the vote was a bit unrealistic of course, no party has ever won an outright majority under MMP. The upcoming election does look competitive, Labour does have weaknesses on areas like tax, and if the global economy does slow that would be very damaging to their election chances. However, Labour's position is not actually bad right now, and I think Jacinda is the favourite to win.

Also the NZ media does have a problem with taking poll results too literally, which they really should have learned was a bad idea from recent election results in the US, UK and Australia. They should emphasize more how polls are rough guides and can't be exact, or there is a risk that they end up with egg on their faces after the election.

[Pericles]

An interesting new poll came out, done by Stuff and YouGov. These were the results; https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/117662933/labour-ahead-while-national-dips-below-40-in-new-stuff-poll

Labour: 41%
National: 39%
Green: 8%
NZ First: 8%
ACT: 2%

This would of course mean Labour is re-elected and on these numbers could govern with either the Greens or NZ First.

This does contrast with the other polls, and is significantly worse for National. YouGov also isn't a regular pollster in New Zealand.

[Pericles]

A weird new poll came out showing National can now form a government. It does seem support may have shifted against Labour, and Simon Bridges isn't doing as badly as he was a few months ago. Here are the results, brackets show the change from 2017.

National-46%(+2%)
Labour-39%(+2%)
Green-7%(+1%)
NZ First-4%(-3%)
ACT-2%(+1%)

National and ACT combined would have 61 seats, a bare majority, with wasted votes from NZ First falling below the 5% threshold being the deciding factor. This is after the NZ First donations scandal, but before the Labour conference a few days ago where Labour promised a significant investment in school upgrades.

Honestly I don't think National will win the next election. I don't want to just dismiss polls, but I don't think this is how New Zealand will actually vote. NZ First I think could easily end up above the 5% threshold despite bad polls as they usually outperform the polls and their support usually increases in election campaigns (2017 being a notable exception due to the outbreak of Jacindamania). Simon Bridges is still a lot less popular than Jacinda Ardern, though her ratings have fallen slightly in this poll.

[Pericles]

I'm inclined to agree, Jacinda Ardern is still very popular and Simon Bridges is unpopular, and I think that swings it to Labour in the end. The last few changes of government had the Leader of the Opposition and the incumbent Prime Minister close together in the preferred Prime Minister polling-Bill English had a slight lead over Jacinda there in 2017, and John Key actually led Helen Clark there in 2008. I am not 100% sure but I believe 1999 was also close in that regard. Jim Bolger didn't do great in those polls and seems to be a unique case, offering some encouragement to Simon Bridges, but I don't think even the biggest National Party hack can argue that Labour has stuffed it up for themselves now anything close to how they did in the 1987-1990 term.

And you are correct that more New Zealanders lean towards National. Interestingly, despite National  not forming the government in 2017, their brand wasn't damaged much (if at all) going into Opposition. 44% and a 7% lead over Labour is a great starting point from which to go into opposition with, and this situation doesn't have much precedent. National still needs to increase its vote by about 2-3 points to form a government though (it depends on how many 'wasted votes'-votes for parties that don't win any parliamentary representation-there are), this probably doesn't end up happening.

[Pericles]

The fact that the nationals are leading despite Arden being highly popular is fascinating. Do New Zealanders simply separate their opinion of party leaders from party preference more than voters in most other nations?

If anything I'd have thought we vote more on party leaders than other nations, given Labour surged by 10-15 points in the polls right after Jacinda became leader and Labour pretty much changed none of its policies or substance. For 2020 it's hard to tell right now what is going on, New Zealand only has 2 regular pollsters and even with more polling early polls can be significantly different from the final result.

[Pericles]

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced the next general election will be held on 19 September, of course the referendums on euthanasia and marijuana legalization (the latter especially looks close) will also be held then. This is similar to the previous two election dates, the 23rd and 20th of September respectively. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/01/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-confirms-2020-general-election-date.html

This election looks pretty competitive. The National Party has been polling well, but I expect Labour to win another term because Jacinda is popular and likable and Simon Bridges is the opposite. Currently, I think the most likely outcome is a continuation of the Labour-NZ First-Greens government, with Labour gaining support while its allies lose some support and National remains stable. However, both a National Party government and a Labour-Greens government are real possibilities.

[Pericles]

Abortion is now Decriminalized

Pleased to see this passed-though disappointed that the provision establishing safe zones around abortion clinics was removed.

[Pericles]

For New Zealand, an alert system has been announced for coronavirus. This link shows in more detail how the alert system works. There are alert levels for both nationwide and regionally, so it's possible that certain regions of New Zealand could end up being locked down. New Zealand is currently at Alert Level 2 (the levels go from 1-4). Also, New Zealand has 52 coronavirus cases with almost all being directly from overseas arrivals and no clear community transmission so far.

So for Alert Level 2, these are the measures that take place with it "Entry border measures maximised, Further restrictions on mass gatherings, Physical distancing on public transport (e.g. leave the seat next to you empty if you can), Limit non-essential travel around New Zealand, Employers start alternative ways of working if possible (e.g. remote working, shift-based working, physical distancing within the workplace, staggering meal breaks, flexible leave arrangements), Business continuity plans activated, High-risk people advised to remain at home (e.g. those over 70 or those with other existing medical conditions)"

This seems like an interesting idea and a good way to inform the public about where things are at-I heard on the radio that a business owner was saying this provides more certainty and there had been a lot of worry with rumours of a nationwide lockdown (which so far is not happening in New Zealand).  Have other countries adopted similar systems?

[Pericles]

New Zealand is going into a 4-week lockdown tonight. We are relatively early in the outbreak, with just over 200 cases and no deaths so far. Most of those cases have also been from overseas arrivals too. However, a few have been from community transmission. I think the government has made the right move to try and contain it early, and I hope we've gone early enough. It seems that Jacinda Ardern is trying to follow the approach taken in countries like Singapore and Taiwan, rather than let things escalate as they are in Europe. So far I'm impressed with her handling of this crisis, she comes across as a calm and responsible leader.

[Pericles]

The Health Minister David Clark broke the lockdown rules he helped set and definitely had to know, by first taking a 20km drive to a beach near Dunedin and then going on a mountain bike ride (the government guidelines tell people not to go swimming or engage in activities like mountain biking where people could get lost or hurt and so need help from the health system).  https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/clarke-offers-resign-after-trip-beach This is infuriating and I'm disgusted that politicians like him act so arrogantly that they think the rules don't apply to them. He has been demoted, and Jacinda Ardern said she would have sacked him outright except that she thought it would do more harm than good to replace a health minister in the middle of a pandemic (which seems reasonable).

We are now almost halfway through the lockdown, though it could be extended for either the entire country or certain regions. So far New Zealand has 1,160 cases of coronavirus and 1 death. Of those, many are linked to overseas travel while community transmission does not appear to be widespread. The growth rate is falling, it was at 54 today after having previously been around 70-80 a day. Given the lag period in detecting cases, this is now the time where we get to see if the lockdown is working and whether it will need to be extended. I think Jacinda Ardern has shown exemplary leadership through this, along with Director of Health Ashley Bloomfield, and I'm grateful to have her as Prime Minister at this time. She has made the right calls like going into full lockdown relatively early, and generally been clear and empathetic with the public.

[Pericles]

Update from today-the growth rate in cases has fallen again to 50, with 284 now recovered and the total cases in New Zealand being 1,210. 12 people are in hospital with 4 in ICU, but still only 1 death. Overall, it looks like the lockdown is working, and Jacinda Ardern is cautiously optimistic (but she warned that we need to 'stay the course' and not get complacent).

[Pericles]

The lockdown still seems to be working. Today, the growth rate was just 19. Sadly, there have been 4 more deaths from coronavirus. Currently, there are 1,349 total cases, with 546 recoveries and 5 deaths.  On April 20, the government will announce whether the lockdown comes to an end or is extended. It looks like they acted just in time and saved New Zealand from a large outbreak and deaths.

Of course, even if the lockdown does end, normal life won't resume on April 22 or for quite a while. The borders will also probably have to remain closed for a while, and the government this week strengthened protections there to require all arrivals into New Zealand to quarantine for 14 days (previously only those who did not have a self isolation plan in place had to quarantine).

New Zealand may end up nationally self isolating from coronavirus in a collective bubble, if it is eliminated within the country. However, how long that can be sustained is unclear. For now, I'm relieved that people are staying home, being kind and saving lives.

[Pericles]

New Zealand's coronavirus strategy continues to have great success. The growth rate yesterday was just 15, and today it was a mere 8 new cases. Sadly, there were 2 more deaths today. That brings it to 11 total deaths and 1,409 total cases. There are now 816 recoveries and just 582 active cases.

Yesterday, Jacinda Ardern laid out what alert level 3 will look like, though there won't be a formal decision on whether to leave full lockdown (alert level 4) until Monday. She likened it to being in 'the recovery room', rather than a rush to normality (she is a great communicator and explains things easily and clearly). Malls and retail remain closed at level 3, but drive-throughs and online shopping open. Sectors like manufacturing and construction, where work from home cannot occur, will go back to work. This is estimated to increase the active workforce from the current essential workforce of 500,000 to around 1 million. Schools up to Year 10 (so 14 years of age) will reopen but on a voluntary basis, with the ideal being that schools are open for those who can't look after children at home but people are encouraged not to send their children to school. So it's a looser lockdown, but the message remains stay home and save lives (and be kind, of course).

I think the government is taking the right approach here. There is debate about how much the lockdown should be relaxed. A group of academics formed a 'Plan B' group advocating a much more drastic and quicker return to normality, arguing the lockdown is an overreaction (while saying vulnerable groups should stay in isolation, sounds a bit like the UK's original herd immunity strategy). This is nonsense. The threat not coming to pass because we went hard and early against it does not mean the threat never existed. Even the Westpac bank acknowledged that the lockdown is probably the best approach economically, with the worst-case scenario being the gains made being lost and so a return back into lockdown being required.

Elimination is working and is the right strategy not only from a public health perspective but economically, and ultimately New Zealand may end up being able to return to something much closer to normal life domestically and with a smaller economic hit-while not taking the monstrous death tolls-that are being seen overseas. I'm very grateful to have Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister and such sensible leadership through this crisis.