2023 New Zealand general election (14 October)

[Pericles]

I should get around to creating this thread.

So, New Zealand will be holding a general election in exactly 5 months time. This is conducted under the MMP electoral system. This is (currently) set up to the battle of the Chrises-Prime Minister Chris Hipkins as Labour leader vs Christopher Luxon as National Party leader. Unlike the last election, this is looking very competitive. The potential governing parties on the left are Labour, the Greens, and the Maori Party  (Luxon ruled out working with them too), against National and ACT on the right. NZ First, still led by Winston Peters, can be counted as part of the right this time because he ruled out backing Labour, but it is unlikely that they get any seats.

The economy is being rated as the most important issue this year. Like many countries, in the aftermath of Covid we face high inflation (around 7%), high interest rates and a potential recession. Extreme weather events like Cyclone Gabrielle this year might raise the salience of climate change. Race relations have also become more divisive, with Labour's Three Water Reforms and new Maori Health Authority leading to an angry backlash against 'co-governance' and 'separatism'.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is anything of the increased visibility of Moari issues a result of what's going on in Australia?

[Pericles]

Is anything of the increased visibility of Moari issues a result of what's going on in Australia?

It started to surge up the agenda back in 2021, National and ACT were attacking Labour during Judith Collins' leadership too, and Three Waters just kept getting more controversial as Nanaia Mahuta struggled to sell it. Honestly, I haven't seen the NZ media talking about The Voice at all.

[JimJamUK]

It started to surge up the agenda back in 2021, National and ACT were attacking Labour during Judith Collins' leadership too, and Three Waters just kept getting more controversial as Nanaia Mahuta struggled to sell it.

Is the government Māori policies something Labour strongly support themselves or have they sort of wandered into it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is anything of the increased visibility of Moari issues a result of what's going on in Australia?

It started to surge up the agenda back in 2021, National and ACT were attacking Labour during Judith Collins' leadership too, and Three Waters just kept getting more controversial as Nanaia Mahuta struggled to sell it. Honestly, I haven't seen the NZ media talking about The Voice at all.

Ah. In that context the room doesn't seem to exist in the news cycle even if NZ media wanted to talk about it. Too much going on elsewhere, particularly closer to home.

[Pericles]

It started to surge up the agenda back in 2021, National and ACT were attacking Labour during Judith Collins' leadership too, and Three Waters just kept getting more controversial as Nanaia Mahuta struggled to sell it.

Is the government Māori policies something Labour strongly support themselves or have they sort of wandered into it?

The policies like the 'co-governance' (not quite that simple tbh) in Three Waters and the Maori Health Authority were consciously chosen by them. Three Waters was just a water infrastructure reform that should have been boring but was sold poorly. Part of it in 2021 was the leaked He Puapua report, which was not government policy but the government in 2019 had chosen not to release it to the public.

[Pericles]

Latest 1 News Poll gives narrow lead to National and ACT;

NZ First and the other parties would not be elected, but the Maori Party would be.



Not a good news story for Labour like the previous polls, but it shows it would be foolish to write off either major party. The budget didn't seem to affect the poll numbers, my assessment was that it would have been marginally helpful but it was a pretty minor budget (arguably by design given the inflationary economic context-and on the bright side the Reserve Bank signalled that interest rates will soon peak).

[Pericles]

With 100 days to the election having passed (an Americanism that is now a thing in NZ politics), we saw a bunch of election prediction articles. While it isn't news, I thought Atlas would appreciate seeing that the right-wing pundits here are 'high on hopium'. This is in the context of the public polls being as close as they can be between the blocs. Admittedly, there hasn't been a poll in a few weeks. Since then, Labour had a horror month with one minister being fired and another suffering controversy (so Hipkins has lost three ministers so far and suffered more cabinet controversies, though he handled them well), and the economy slipped into a recession. Also, which got less media coverage but would have been most important to voters, the 25% petrol tax cut passed last year was allowed to expire at the end of June.

Stuff's right-wing pundit, Damien Grant, predicted that "Labour can fall below 30% and there is every reason to think it will; and the opinion polls will be a factor in their decline." While he brought up some issues that have hurt the government, he seemed more concerned about his own opinion with them than the public's. Other reasons were voter fears about the Greens and the Maori Party (the former is not a factor imo and the latter is unlikely to be as effective against an incumbent majority government than it was in the 2015 UK example that inspires these attacks), and the idea that "If it begins to look like a change of government, a small number of swing voters may decide it is better to give Luxon a few extra seats to dilute ACT’s negotiating power" (something that imo there is no evidence of happening in the past and I can't see it being a thing). Saying in the same article that he wants heroin to be sold in dairies does go against his credibility as someone who is in touch with public opinion.

Newstalk ZB radio host Mike Hosking has had a profile as a vocal right-winger for years, so it's no surprise that he would make a bold prediction. Perhaps he should have been less bold after predicting that the 2020 election would be close. Unfortunately his article is pay-walled, but the basic point was running through cliches about polls being inaccurate (ignoring that predicting the direction of the error is hard), and then predicted "National 38-42 per cent; Act 12-15 per cent, an easy election-night victory; Labour 29-32 per cent; Greens 6-7 per cent." Around a 53% vote for National and ACT would be very difficult for them to achieve, given that those two parties never even quite got 50% in the John Key years.

A more serious prediction was offered by Jacinda antagonist and pundit Barry Soper, that there would be a change of government. His basic point is that since most people feel the country is headed in the wrong direction (this is backed up by polls, and unlike in the US it is not the public's default position), they will vote for change. I'm not sure if politics is really on people's minds that much though, anecdotally it feels like there is less engagement than in 2017 and 2020. All the pundits on that panel agreed with the prediction, so I guess that shows what 'the narrative' is.

If Labour wins, it would be an upset to the conventional wisdom at this point and it would be almost worth it on its own for the right-wing meltdown it would produce.

[mileslunn]

Since right tends to outperform polls by a point or two, I would say Luxon is favourite but close enough Labour could hold in but definitely underdogs.  At same time seems Luxon has some fairly controversial policies which would probably fly in US, but in Canada where I live would be political suicide so wondering how open New Zealand is to a more small government approach?  It strikes me as less conservative than US & Australia, while similar to UK and more conservative than Canada.  Would that be accurate?

[Pericles]

Since right tends to outperform polls by a point or two, I would say Luxon is favourite but close enough Labour could hold in but definitely underdogs.  At same time seems Luxon has some fairly controversial policies which would probably fly in US, but in Canada where I live would be political suicide so wondering how open New Zealand is to a more small government approach?  It strikes me as less conservative than US & Australia, while similar to UK and more conservative than Canada.  Would that be accurate?

With the first point, polling errors can happen either way (and perhaps it is likely because NZ has so few public polls). NZ doesn't have a pattern of polling errors favoring one bloc, though with minor parties there are slightly stronger patterns-National was underestimated in 2014, the polls were very accurate in 2017, and Labour was underestimated in 2020.

Can you explain which of Luxon's policies you are thinking about? As a general observation his image is more conservative than previous National Party PMs.

[Estrella]

What sort of people does ACT attract now that the disastrous National leadership that helped them in 2020 isn't a factor anymore? Are they typically considered more moderate or more right-wing than the Nats?

[mileslunn]

Since right tends to outperform polls by a point or two, I would say Luxon is favourite but close enough Labour could hold in but definitely underdogs.  At same time seems Luxon has some fairly controversial policies which would probably fly in US, but in Canada where I live would be political suicide so wondering how open New Zealand is to a more small government approach?  It strikes me as less conservative than US & Australia, while similar to UK and more conservative than Canada.  Would that be accurate?

With the first point, polling errors can happen either way (and perhaps it is likely because NZ has so few public polls). NZ doesn't have a pattern of polling errors favoring one bloc, though with minor parties there are slightly stronger patterns-National was underestimated in 2014, the polls were very accurate in 2017, and Labour was underestimated in 2020.

Can you explain which of Luxon's policies you are thinking about? As a general observation his image is more conservative than previous National Party PMs.

I am thinking raising retirement age which is smart economically but I don't think is very popular although I doubt you would see riots in streets like you did in France.  Doesn't he also want to raise fees on prescription drugs?  I think he backed off but initially wanted to scrap the top tax rate of 39% and considering that is already on low side not sure big tax cut for rich an easy sell.  If as high as Canada or some European countries where high 40s or over 50% might be easier but it is not.

[Pericles]

Since right tends to outperform polls by a point or two, I would say Luxon is favourite but close enough Labour could hold in but definitely underdogs.  At same time seems Luxon has some fairly controversial policies which would probably fly in US, but in Canada where I live would be political suicide so wondering how open New Zealand is to a more small government approach?  It strikes me as less conservative than US & Australia, while similar to UK and more conservative than Canada.  Would that be accurate?

With the first point, polling errors can happen either way (and perhaps it is likely because NZ has so few public polls). NZ doesn't have a pattern of polling errors favoring one bloc, though with minor parties there are slightly stronger patterns-National was underestimated in 2014, the polls were very accurate in 2017, and Labour was underestimated in 2020.

Can you explain which of Luxon's policies you are thinking about? As a general observation his image is more conservative than previous National Party PMs.

I am thinking raising retirement age which is smart economically but I don't think is very popular although I doubt you would see riots in streets like you did in France.  Doesn't he also want to raise fees on prescription drugs?  I think he backed off but initially wanted to scrap the top tax rate of 39% and considering that is already on low side not sure big tax cut for rich an easy sell.  If as high as Canada or some European countries where high 40s or over 50% might be easier but it is not.

Raising the retirement age became National's policy under Bill English, while they did lose that election the public don't seem to have cared about that policy much.

Yes he did want to reduce the top rate to 33%, but is no longer proposing this. Their current policy of adjusting tax brackets for inflation is not so easy to attack-but it has been attacked for only giving low income earners $2 a week while people like Luxon get hundreds each week. National's economic policy is generally to reverse most of the changes Labour has made since 2017. This even includes popular policies like the repeal of a tax loophole for property investors, and allowing no-cause evictions of renters. In terms of economic policy, New Zealand tends to lean a bit more to the right than other developed countries though.

The prescriptions fee was repealed in this year's budget, and National promised to restore it before it even officially ended.

[Pericles]

What sort of people does ACT attract now that the disastrous National leadership that helped them in 2020 isn't a factor anymore? Are they typically considered more moderate or more right-wing than the Nats?

I'd expect ACT voters are the more right-wing ones in the National base. It is making inroads with the rural vote and got the Federated Farmers President to stand as an ACT candidate, and it is making a serious play for a second electorate seat in the Tamaki electorate (a wealthy National base seat). They are also picking up on some of the role of NZ First by going hard on the tough on crime, 'Kiwi vs iwi' populism. I do think there will be a noticeable group of Labour-ACT voters though because of how much vote share Labour is losing from the 2020 election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

and it is making a serious play for a second electorate seat in the Tamaki electorate (a wealthy National base seat).

Bob Muldoon’s old seat, which gives an idea of the area’s character.

[Pericles]

Perhaps the collapse is coming after all? Labour's internal pollster Talbot Mills has just released a new poll which is that pollster's worst poll for the left since 2017-

National-36% (+1%)
Labour-31% (-5%)
ACT-12% (+1%)
Green-8% (+1%)
Maori-4%

National + ACT-48%
Labour + Green + Maori-43%

Preferred Prime Minister:
Hipkins-32% (-6%)
Luxon-21% (-1%)

If more polls confirm this, it could mean the election is now slipping away from Labour. The worry as I was saying is that there has been a gap between views on the direction of the country/approval of the government and the party vote numbers. On the other hand, this is just one poll. While this pollster is relatively favourable to Labour, a 5-point deficit and a double-digit preferred PM lead suggests the election is still totally winnable. National's result wasn't amazing here after all.

[Continential]

Is there any chance of Winnie Peters coming back?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Perhaps the collapse is coming after all? Labour's internal pollster Talbot Mills has just released a new poll which is that pollster's worst poll for the left since 2017-

National-36% (+1%)
Labour-31% (-5%)
ACT-12% (+1%)
Green-8% (+1%)
Maori-4%

National + ACT-48%
Labour + Green + Maori-43%

Preferred Prime Minister:
Hipkins-32% (-6%)
Luxon-21% (-1%)

If more polls confirm this, it could mean the election is now slipping away from Labour. The worry as I was saying is that there has been a gap between views on the direction of the country/approval of the government and the party vote numbers. On the other hand, this is just one poll. While this pollster is relatively favourable to Labour, a 5-point deficit and a double-digit preferred PM lead suggests the election is still totally winnable. National's result wasn't amazing here after all.

If other polls confirm this, then it’s clear that Hipkins had the usual new leader honeymoon bounce which has worn off after 6 months. And those preferred PM rankings! hilariously poor for both leaders. It’s a shame NZ pollster don’t ask for approval ratings of PM and Oppo leader, it’d be interesting to see where they’d land.

[Pericles]

Is there any chance of Winnie Peters coming back?

It's possible, NZ First were at 4% in that poll and are averaging around 3%. I haven't heard much about them recently though, ACT is overshadowing them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Given that its generally a good poll for National, that Luxon rating is pretty pathetic.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Given that its generally a good poll for National, that Luxon rating is pretty pathetic.

Not really. In Australia and NZ PM polls generally skew pretty strongly in favour of the incumbent. What’s more noticeable is just how large the neither/don’t know pool is (47%!) which speaks to an apathetic voting public. And through NZ’s history strong PMs carry governments to re-election while weakened PMs get turfed deservedly or not.

[Pericles]

Labour can really be pathetic sometimes.

Hipkins boasts about killing CGT and wealth tax in 2023 budget, rules them out permanently

Eventually, in 2023, the Government seized on the idea of a “tax switch”, slapping on a wealth tax of up to $10.6 billion over the four-year forecast period in order to fund income tax cuts. The wealth tax would have levied a 1.5 per cent tax on wealth over $5 million.

These income tax cuts would have been delivered by a tax-free threshold, which would have meant people paying no tax on the first $7000 to $10,000 of their income. A tax-free threshold of $10,000 would have saved anyone earning above that threshold $1,050 in tax.

Someone would need to earn more than $100,000 under National’s current tax policy to save the same amount of money.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labour can really be pathetic sometimes.

The eternal ANZAC spirit of Labor capitulation is as strong as ever. 

[Pericles]

Perhaps the collapse is coming after all?

Maybe I spoke too soon-the new Taxpayers Union (a right-wing pollster clearly) shows the blocs tied. That's actually a shift to the left from their previous poll.

Party vote comes to 33% National, 31% Labour, 13% ACT, 9% Green, and 5% Maori Party (that last one is a shocker).


As I mentioned, the direction of country numbers have been bad for a while and this poll has a very large gap with 64.5% saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, 42% ahead of 'right direction'.

Apparently the preferred Prime Minister numbers are Hipkins 23% and Luxon 20%, but this must only be in the full report given to subscribers.

It's such a random result. Maybe it's a rogue poll? Going just by the topline, that makes Labour's own pollsters stick out as the pro-National outlier though. So things remains unclear.

[Conservatopia]

Is there no chance of the Maori Party backing a Nat-ACT government?

IIRC they supported Key.