New Zealand political discussion thread

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why the hell would New Zealanders throw out Ardern? She had the second-best COVID response in the world after China's. Obviously other factors come into play, but she's great at PR (which she deserves, to be sure.) I'm pretty surprised that her poll numbers are going that far down.

[Pericles]

With housing, it is one of those hopeless political situations because 60% of home owners don't want the value of their home to fall at all but 47% of New Zealanders think house prices should drop a lot and only 18% want no change.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

With housing, it is one of those hopeless political situations because 60% of home owners don't want the value of their home to fall at all but 47% of New Zealanders think house prices should drop a lot and only 18% want no change.

It is a very tough and politically hard question to solve, and that why I I'm disappointed with Arden. She has the political majority to push through the necessary but unpopular policies required to fix the situation but won't do it.

This is not to say she hasn't made some progress such as her bipartisan zoning reform, but future coalition governments might lack the capability of doing what is necessary. Arden has had a chance to solve this issue but just won't make it due to the short-term consequences.

[Хahar 🤔]

This brings to mind a point that I brought up in this thread earlier that nobody responded to:

This is a broader question than what I usually pose in threads like this, but Ebowed's comment got me thinking. My impression is that economic opportunities for young people in New Zealand are rather limited, and I know that there is far more migration from New Zealand to Australia than the reverse. I'm sure that the right to live and work in Australia is very important to New Zealanders, but I'm curious whether youth emigration is a major political issue in New Zealand, and if so who has plans to address it and how. One would think that this might be fertile territory for a party like ACT, but on the other hand the policies with which ACT is associated don't seem to have done much to solve this problem in the '80s and '90s.

The present housing crisis is obviously clearly related. Government policy favors rent-seeking homeowners looking for continued appreciation in the housing market. Those gains for homeowners are naturally coming at the expense of non-homeowners (in other words, young people), who will continue to respond in the same way that young New Zealanders have for decades: by emigrating abroad, where wages are better and housing is cheaper. It's unclear to me how New Zealand will solve its shortage of skilled labor by bringing in skilled workers from abroad when those workers could go somewhere better instead.

[Pericles]

Two big bits of news in the last 24 hours.
Yesterday, Simon Bridges announced he is leaving politics. This is pretty shocking, he is National's finance spokesperson and this will spark a by-election in Tauranga. National's deputy leader Nicola Willis has now been given Finance too. Bridges seems to want to spend more time with his family and he might even have a job offer already, I don't know if it says anything about National's chances. Tauranga is a safe National seat despite it being close in 2020, though it was Winston Peters' old seat so he could try make a comeback.

Today, the government announced that NZ will open to Australian tourists on April 12 and to visa waiver countries on May 1 (including the US). The requirement is just full vaccination and a negative pre-departure test, no self-isolation. This is great for the country and it will be great to be open to the world again. I'm not sure why they are not doing the entire world in one go though.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Tauranga is a safe National seat despite it being close in 2020, though it was Winston Peters' old seat so he could try make a comeback.

God help you if he does. There’s one thing to be said about him, NZ politics is never boring when he’s involved.

[Pericles]

Tauranga is a safe National seat despite it being close in 2020, though it was Winston Peters' old seat so he could try make a comeback.

God help you if he does. There’s one thing to be said about him, NZ politics is never boring when he’s involved.

To be fair, I don't think he'll win. He also met with the anti-vax protesters at Parliament so most people-especially the elderly-won't like that.

[SnowLabrador]

While Jacinda Ardern is a very strong leader who's worthy of great respect, I think it's also important to acknowledge that New Zealand doesn't have the same institutional factors helping the right-wing that the United States does.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though until a few years ago, the centre-right appeared to be in a period of hegemony there.

[SnowLabrador]

Though until a few years ago, the centre-right appeared to be in a period of hegemony there.

They don't have Fox News or anything like it, though, do they?

[Pericles]

We are the only Anglosphere country without a Murdoch media presence and not much of a far-right base generally. However, National has won the most votes in 5 MMP elections in a period where Republicans only won the popular vote once for President. I'm not sure what SnowLabrador's point was, but New Zealand politics is different from the US rather than just being a version of US politics shifted left.

[Pericles]

The Prime Minister has just announced the next steps in the Covid response. The red setting of the traffic light system has been changed so that indoor gathering limits on hospitality venues have been increased to 200 people, and all limits on outdoor gatherings have been removed. There were some minor changes to the guidance at the orange light and no changes for the vaccinated at the green light (which is basically just normal life anyway). The mandating of QR codes has also been eliminated because contact tracing is almost completely gone, though people were encouraged not to delete the app.

Vaccine passes have also been eliminated, allegedly because of the high vaccination rate and natural immunity. Of course businesses can still use them. Vaccine mandates have been removed for education, defence and police workforces, with the employers there now having the choice over whether to use them. Border, health and aged care workers are still required to be vaccinated. Any mandates that remain will eventually be updated so that triple-vaccination is required.

New Zealand is still at the red light, but the traffic lights will be reviewed regularly from 4 April.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300547780/live-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-to-announce-cabinets-decision-on-covid19-settings

[Pericles]

New Zealand has moved to the orange traffic light setting. This means that social distancing requirements are now gone. The only restrictions left are mask mandates and self-isolation for confirmed cases and household contacts. Masks have been removed in schools and dancing has been allowed again at nightclubs. The Covid Response Minister did get confused about the rules in his own press conference, but the general rule seems to be that masks are still required inside.

[CumbrianLefty]

New Zealand has moved to the orange traffic light setting. This means that social distancing requirements are now gone. The only restrictions left are mask mandates and self-isolation for confirmed cases and household contacts. Masks have been removed in schools and dancing has been allowed again at nightclubs. The Covid Response Minister did get confused about the rules in his own press conference, but the general rule seems to be that masks are still required inside.

Seems very incongruous with the general relaxations to me.

[SnowLabrador]

New Zealand has moved to the orange traffic light setting. This means that social distancing requirements are now gone. The only restrictions left are mask mandates and self-isolation for confirmed cases and household contacts. Masks have been removed in schools and dancing has been allowed again at nightclubs. The Covid Response Minister did get confused about the rules in his own press conference, but the general rule seems to be that masks are still required inside.

Seems very incongruous with the general relaxations to me.

Well, COVID transmission risk is much greater indoors. Outdoor activities are relatively safe.

[Pericles]

New Zealand has moved to the orange traffic light setting. This means that social distancing requirements are now gone. The only restrictions left are mask mandates and self-isolation for confirmed cases and household contacts. Masks have been removed in schools and dancing has been allowed again at nightclubs. The Covid Response Minister did get confused about the rules in his own press conference, but the general rule seems to be that masks are still required inside.

Seems very incongruous with the general relaxations to me.

Yeah but the level of restrictions keeps gradually decreasing. Maybe they just want to wait a few weeks and see if cases keep going diwn before getting rid of more rules. They are worried about winter though (and a flu and covid 'twindemic') so we might have to endure some rules for a few months. They probably also see masks as a lower cost restriction than almost any others.

[Continential]

Apparently someone who uses the Parliamentary Library has requested "Sex, Power, and Politics" by former MP Ross Meurant who started a microparty in the 90s.
The cover of the book:

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Wentworth is probably most similarly economically and culturally to an electorate like Wimbledon, professionals, wealthy people, socially liberal and elite. The likes of Islington in Australia still vote solidly for Labor; Granalyder, Sydney etc. Australia is probably more class polarised than England in urban metropolises, but voting patterns are largely the same.

The places comparable to Grayndler could be those London constituencies which had a big Green vote in 2015 (by some distance the Green Party's best general election in terms of votes). Holborn and St Pancreas springs to mind, not least because of whose seat it is.

Now that you mention him, Albanese's strategy is similar to Starmer's. Both have been talked down for their small target strategy, but one has a wide open path to victory with just weeks to go. If victory is won, then this should encourage Starmer that the big strategic calls he has been making as leader are sensible.

For New Zealand politics, I would be more encouraged by a Scott Morrison victory for Labour's 2023 odds. Both governments have taken serious blows over their vaccine rollouts and the global inflation surge. Jacinda Ardern could be able to survive what Morrison can't, because she has more personal popularity and there is less of a sense of this being a tired old government. However, no incumbent wants to have an election now and we will just be hoping that we are better off in 2023 than we are on either side of the ditch right now.

I don't know, Arden might be more personaly popular but the NZ electorate is more flexibile and prone to swings than the australian ones. And even a flawless government would be hard pressed to solve the main issue of housing prices driving much of the annoyance with her government.

The one bright side is that housing prices are now coming down and supply is increasing, but the 30% price increase during the pandemic is unlikely to be reversed completely, and home ownership was already out of reach for many young people before then. You have a valid point, but it would be even for us crazy to have a 24% lead wiped out in one election, and New Zealand does like to give each party 9 years in government.

I don't think it's too crazy, a lot of the 24% lead was going to dissipate anyway even in a labour favourable environment as it was from a one-time covid bump. Core national voters will return to the party, so in a way part of that swing will already be priced in.

And Labour is already polling neck-to-neck with the Nationals. Now the election is way off and not much stock should be put into any singular poll, but it's pretty clear that the covid-bump has pretty much completely dissipated.

NAT 40.5% (+9.2)

LAB 38.2% (-6.1)

GRN 8.4% (-1.2)

ACT 6.4% (-1.6)

MRI 2.5% (+0.5)

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-labour-suffers-dramatic-fall-as-national-cracks-40-pct.html

[Pericles]

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.

Do you expect a result more in line with 2005?

[Pericles]

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.

Do you expect a result more in line with 2005?

Basically. Luxon also comes across as a bit of an idiot, though maybe not in a politically harmful way. It is still early in his leadership and people are focused on many other things instead of learning more about him, so Labour can always hope he underperforms in a campaign if it is not already decided either way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.

Do you expect a result more in line with 2005?

Basically. Luxon also comes across as a bit of an idiot, though maybe not in a politically harmful way. It is still early in his leadership and people are focused on many other things instead of learning more about him, so Labour can always hope he underperforms in a campaign if it is not already decided either way.

I get the sense a lot would have to wrong for National for them to get a sub-35 seat count two elections in a row. The real question, generally speaking, is how much they rebound. Of course, 2023 is still more than a year away.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.

Do you expect a result more in line with 2005?

Basically. Luxon also comes across as a bit of an idiot, though maybe not in a politically harmful way. It is still early in his leadership and people are focused on many other things instead of learning more about him, so Labour can always hope he underperforms in a campaign if it is not already decided either way.

I get the sense a lot would have to wrong for National for them to get a sub-35 seat count two elections in a row. The real question, generally speaking, is how much they rebound. Of course, 2023 is still more than a year away.

I think it's a bit unfair to blame them for the 2020 election perfomance, I don't think anyone could have beatedn Arden given her successful covid response in that election. That's why I think people shouldn't realy use the 2020 election as a baseline when thinking about swings.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ardern was likely always going to win, but National bombing as hard as they did was much less inevitable.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.

There have been only 2 occasions since MMP has been introduced in New Zealand that an incumbent government that had lagged in a poll has been re-elected.

Ardern was likely always going to win, but National bombing as hard as they did was much less inevitable.

National was briefly leading in the polls pre-covid, before covid led to in-fighting and an internal party melt-down. Say what you want about Luxon but he's been able to sell the fact that his party is united and the kind of backroom backstabbing seems to have tempered down.

I think in many way 2020 election handed labour a poisoned chalice. They had an absolute majority so no longer had a partner to pivot blame towards, and they got a lot of votes from voters who's interests are opposed to that of a labour party which has led to them being reluctant to implement many core policies. At this point I would say that National are favoured to form the next Goverment.