India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/new-equations-in-tripura-politics-as-congress-gets-a-shot-in-the-arm-from-bjps-dissidents/articleshow/89540681.cms

"New equations in Tripura politics as Congress gets a shot in the arm from BJP's dissidents"

In Tripura, there has been an ongoing trickle of BJP MLAs defecting to INC.  The fact that all is not well within the Tripura BJP is not a surprise as there is clear rebellion against the current BJP CM Deb. The fact that the defections are headed to INC and not AITC is a surprise.

Tripura used to be Left Front vs INC.  In 2018 BJP came out of nowhere and with its tribal ally IPFT completely took over the INC vote and defeated the Left Front with the BJP becoming the new INC.  AITC then got into the act and it was expected that the Left Front being out of power will implode and AITC will become the new Left Front to take on BJP in 2023.  In the meantime, the INC tribal splinter TIPRA was formed and seems likely to be allied with AITC to take on IPFT in tribal areas.

What seems to have developed is that the Left Front got weaker but did not implode.  AITC is not growing as fast as expected and now INC seems to be gaining ground.  At this rate in 2023, it will be a 4-way BJP vs Left Front vs AITC vs INC battle in Bengali areas and IPFT vs TIPRA in tribal areas.  If so then despite all sorts of BJP internal civil wars the BJP's chances of winning in 2023 is going up as there is a strong chance of the anti-BJP vote being split 3 ways between Left Front AITC and INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/mukhtar-ansaris-son-to-contest-uttar-pradesh-polls-from-family-bastion-1081695.html

"Mukhtar Ansari's son to contest Uttar Pradesh polls from family bastion"

Mukhtar Ansari is a political titan in the Mau region in Eastern UP.  His grandfather was a key Muslim leader in INC back in the 1920s but his family has been in education since.  He became a leader of a criminal gang in the 1980s and has been in politics since after his criminal gang grabbed control of the Mau area.  He was elected in 1996 on the BSP ticket but rebelled and won in 2002 as a BSP rebel.  In 2007 he won as a pro-SP independent and in 2012 he formed the Muslim-based QED party which ran in an alliance with SBSP and won re-election.  For 2017 Shivpal Singh Yadav was working to get him to merge QED into SP and run for SP which Akhilesh Yadav opposed and used as an excuse to purge Shivpal Singh Yadav.    Mukhtar Ansari merged QED into BSP instead and won re-election on the BSP ticket in 2017 with his son running in the district next door as the BSP and was defeated by the BJP.

This time with Shivpal Singh Yadav and  Akhilesh Yadav reconciled the plan was for Mukhtar Ansari to join SP ally SBSP and run in Mau.  But since 2017 he has been in prison and the last legal moves to get him out to run have failed.  So his son will run on an SBSP ticket in his place.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/dera-sacha-sauda-chief-gurmeet-ram-rahim-gets-21-day-furlough-from-jail-11644224206082.html

"Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim gets 21-day furlough from jail"

This is very fishy.  Dera Sacha Sauda(DSS) is a new age religion with tens of millions of followers in Punjab and Haryana mostly Dalits.   DSS historically backed INC but in 2017 shifted its support to BJP due to legal troubles related to its leader Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh.  Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh was facing rape and murder charges and eventually was convicted and now serving 2 life sentences.  When Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh was convicted there were massive riots in Haryana and Punjab by DSS followers.

The nature of the rape charges for Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh is familiar to various Godmen in India.  It's all the same, at some point the Godman will demand young and sometimes underaged daughters of his followers have sexual relationships with him for religious reasons.  For Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh he went beyond that when he arranged to have some DSS defectors that exposed what he was doing murdered.

Anyway with Punjab elections coming up, it is fishy that Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh is being let out on parole for 21 days just in time for him to rally his DSS followers to vote BJP.

[jaichind]

With almost all candidates announced I can now construct the Manipur defection matrix

                                                                Defect to
                                 BJP        INC         NPP         NPF         JD(U)       Other
                      BJP      XXX         6             5            1             3               6
Defect from     INC      14         XXX           3            1             5               0
                      NPP       2            0          XXX           0            2               0
                      NPF       0            0             1         XXX           0               0
                      LJP       1            0             0            0             1               0
                      AITC     1            1             0            0             0               0
                      NEIDP   2            0             1            0             0               0

BJP is clearly winning the defection battle with INC.  Still, NPP which did not run that many candidates in 2017, and JD(U) did not run any candidates in 2017 are getting a large number of BJP and INC defectors.  BJP also lost a bunch of defectors to minor parties or rebels many provoked by a large number of INC defectors into the BJP.  BJP also getting a bunch of defections from 2017 minor parties that are not really running this time (LJP AITC and NEIDP).  Overall INC is losing a lot of its 2017 to other parties but especially BJP.

[omar04]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/dera-sacha-sauda-chief-gurmeet-ram-rahim-gets-21-day-furlough-from-jail-11644224206082.html

"Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim gets 21-day furlough from jail"

This is very fishy.  Dera Sacha Sauda(DSS) is a new age religion with tens of millions of followers in Punjab and Haryana mostly Dalits.   DSS historically backed INC but in 2017 shifted its support to BJP due to legal troubles related to its leader Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh.  Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh was facing rape and murder charges and eventually was convicted and now serving 2 life sentences.  When Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh was convicted there were massive riots in Haryana and Punjab by DSS followers.

The nature of the rape charges for Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh is familiar to various Godmen in India.  It's all the same, at some point the Godman will demand young and sometimes underaged daughters of his followers have sexual relationships with him for religious reasons.  For Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh he went beyond that when he arranged to have some DSS defectors that exposed what he was doing murdered.

Anyway with Punjab elections coming up, it is fishy that Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh is being let out on parole for 21 days just in time for him to rally his DSS followers to vote BJP.

Apparently there has been a lodged dispute by an independent candidate. I am unsure of what might come of it other than Singh not being allowed any more furloughs.

[omar04]

On a smaller note, some articles on the hijab dispute in Karnataka.

https://theprint.in/india/the-politics-behind-karnatakas-hijab-row-sliding-congress-rising-sdpi-combative-bjp/827902/ (The author has published a few more recent articles on the same website).

https://www.daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay?newsID=927884

https://www.thehansindia.com/karnataka/muslim-parties-behind-hijab-turmoil-udupi-mla-raghupathi-bhat-729879

https://www.deccanherald.com/state/karnataka-politics/hijab-row-sdpi-backing-bjp-alleges-congress-1082825.html

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/bangalore/karnataka-bengaluru-hijab-row-live-updates-college-protests-high-court-hearing-covid-7779305/

The SDPI and BJP may be considered to be colluding to stir up religious sectarianism for their own benefits. Indeed, Congress accused SDPI of backing the BJP in this regard and escalating the issue from the university level. There have been some recent inroads made by SDPI in the state.

[jaichind]

My theory about the Karnataka Hijab dispute is that it is being drummed up by pro-AIMIM forces.  They see that they are going nowhere in UP with the Muslim vote most likely going to SP.  So they worked to drum up this dispute in Karnataka hoping to push the Muslim vote in UP toward the AIMIM.  Once it got started the BJP clearly saw a reason to drum it up some more to consolidate the Hindu vote in Western UP.   

[omar04]

The dispute originally began with parents discovering students weren't allowed to wear hijab in classrooms and the CFI (student wing of the PFI which SDPI is the political wing of) siding with them prompting organizations opposed to them to join the fray. To be fair, this isn't a new trend, the CFI is growing more popular with Muslim students in Udupi where the college in question is located. The coastal districts of Karnataka which Udupi is one of are apparently known to have a lot of communal disputes.

AIMIM as far as I can tell has not played much of a direct role in the protests, I do recall their workers were putting up a few posters supporting hijab. But like you said, it's definitely impacted election conditions in UP with social media and whatnot.

I apologize if I sound condescending or anything, that's not my intention at all.

[jaichind]

The dispute originally began with parents discovering students weren't allowed to wear hijab in classrooms and the CFI (student wing of the PFI which SDPI is the political wing of) siding with them prompting organizations opposed to them to join the fray. To be fair, this isn't a new trend, the CFI is growing more popular with Muslim students in Udupi where the college in question is located. The coastal districts of Karnataka which Udupi is one of are apparently known to have a lot of communal disputes.

AIMIM as far as I can tell has not played much of a direct role in the protests, I do recall their workers were putting up a few posters supporting hijab. But like you said, it's definitely impacted election conditions in UP with social media and whatnot.

I apologize if I sound condescending or anything, that's not my intention at all.

No condescending tone detected by me at all.  What I wrote is pure speculation so the info you posted is very useful for someone like me who knows very little about this other than what I see on NDTV.

It seems to me that

a) The girls were allowed to wear the hijab in school but not the classrooms.
b) Then there was a demand by some of them to wear the hijab in the classrooms which triggered a crisis where now the hijab is banned in schools period.
c) Legally this is about 1) is the hijab central to the Muslim faith in which case the Constitution says it will have to be allowed and 2) will private and public schools be allowed to have different legal standards

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-objects-singapore-pms-remarks-about-criminal-mps-2022-02-18/

"India objects to Singapore PM's remarks about 'criminal' MPs"

Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong gave a speech about being vigilant in preserving the strengths of the Singapore system made the point that India Nehru created now has 50% of its MPs with criminal cases.  The Indian government is up in arms but in the end, they could not deny the fact that what Lee said are actual facts. 

Functionally this is mostly a trend of the 1980s when to win elections political parties started to get local criminals forces to help them with booth management.  After a while, these criminal elements decided to get into the game directly.  Before the 1980s most rural voting was based on what the local landowners and village leaders indicated the right way to vote.  That is still true today but muscle power plays a much bigger role since the 1980s and winners of elections need a combination of both which leads to a high % of MP and MLA with criminal records.  In fact, there is a position correlation between candidates with criminal records and winning meaning having a criminal record makes it more likely you will win than if you did not have a criminal record, especially in rural areas.

[jaichind]

For UP I have still not mapped some BSP candidates for the 7th phase but I have enough of everything else to have a fairly complete UP defection matrix.  At worse, I miss out on a couple of defections to BSP which will be minor if any.

BJP+ - BJP AD(S) NISHAD
SP+ - SP RLD SBSP
BSP
INC

                                               Defect to     
                                 BJP+       SP+        BSP         INC
                     BJP+     XXX         21           3             1
Defect from    SP+       16          XXX        10             5
                     BSP       25           47         XXX           6
                     INC         4           13            2           XXX

Minor SP+ edge over BJP+ in the defection battle.  But what is critical is 2017 BSP and INC candidates are going to SP+ in much greater numbers than BJP+.  This is especially problematic for BJP given the fact that it is the ruling party and should have a clear edge in the defection game like for INC in Punjab as well as BJP in Goa and Manipur.

In theory, BJP has a lot of factors in its favor this election.  Yogi Adityanath is well known and potentially polarizing but clearly can mobilize the BJP vote to come up.  Anti-BJP vote is split between SP+ BSP and INC.  INC is weak which means the Upper Caste vote has nowhere to go but BJP.   In theory, the local political players should know all these trends that point to a BJP victory but they are defecting (especially from BSP) toward SP+ in much greater numbers.  This defection matrix table points to a potential BJP upset defeat.

The only alternative explanation of assertive mating.  Namely, BJP+ is better than SP+ at identifying political talent and who has a personal vote so all the defections BJP are getting are top-tier candidates while SP is getting second-tier defections or overpaying for top tier talent.  We will see vote-counting night but if BJP is unexpectedly defeated it was not there was no signal ahead of time pointing to the fact that it might take place.

[jaichind]

Looking at the Manipur candidate list it seems the INC strategy is merely an even accelerated version of its 2017 campaign.  In 2017 INC focused mostly on the Hinduized Meitei areas in the Imphal areas and focused less on the Naga and other tribal areas.  As a result, BJP and NPP were able to make significant inroads in the Naga and other tribal areas while INC most overperformed in Meitei areas.

This time around INC seems to be giving up on Naga and other tribal areas as key INC talent there defect to BJP and NPF since.  This time around NPP is making a real big push into the Naga and other tribal areas and so is JD(U).  In Naga areas, it was supposed to be BJP vs NPF vs INC vs NPP but it seems other than a few seats INC will not be relevant with NPP and even JD(U) being the third force in the rest of them.  In Non-Naga tribal seats BJP seems very strong with INC being more relevant but the anti-BJP vote is very likely to be split between INC and NPP. 

So for INC to do even reasonably well they have to outperform in Meitei just like in 2017 and most likely even more so.  There NPP and JD(U) are aggressively moving in and will cut into both the BJP and INC vote so the result will be very unpredictable.

[jaichind]

India Today data on UP phase 3 historical results (for 2009 2014 and 2019 LS election it is assembly segment results)



Phase 3 is really Yadav land plus most of Bundelkhand where BJP is very strong


My quibble with their scenario analysis is that INC is very weak here so about half of the 6% INC vote share here in 2017 was because of their alliance with SP.  So their baseline underestimates SP by 3% and overestuimates INC by 3%.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-objects-singapore-pms-remarks-about-criminal-mps-2022-02-18/

"India objects to Singapore PM's remarks about 'criminal' MPs"

Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong gave a speech about being vigilant in preserving the strengths of the Singapore system made the point that India Nehru created now has 50% of its MPs with criminal cases.  The Indian government is up in arms but in the end, they could not deny the fact that what Lee said are actual facts. 

Functionally this is mostly a trend of the 1980s when to win elections political parties started to get local criminals forces to help them with booth management.  After a while, these criminal elements decided to get into the game directly.  Before the 1980s most rural voting was based on what the local landowners and village leaders indicated the right way to vote.  That is still true today but muscle power plays a much bigger role since the 1980s and winners of elections need a combination of both which leads to a high % of MP and MLA with criminal records.  In fact, there is a position correlation between candidates with criminal records and winning meaning having a criminal record makes it more likely you will win than if you did not have a criminal record, especially in rural areas.

"Booth management" sounds nicely euphemistic - does it mean the sort of thing you might imagine?

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-objects-singapore-pms-remarks-about-criminal-mps-2022-02-18/

"India objects to Singapore PM's remarks about 'criminal' MPs"

Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong gave a speech about being vigilant in preserving the strengths of the Singapore system made the point that India Nehru created now has 50% of its MPs with criminal cases.  The Indian government is up in arms but in the end, they could not deny the fact that what Lee said are actual facts. 

Functionally this is mostly a trend of the 1980s when to win elections political parties started to get local criminals forces to help them with booth management.  After a while, these criminal elements decided to get into the game directly.  Before the 1980s most rural voting was based on what the local landowners and village leaders indicated the right way to vote.  That is still true today but muscle power plays a much bigger role since the 1980s and winners of elections need a combination of both which leads to a high % of MP and MLA with criminal records.  In fact, there is a position correlation between candidates with criminal records and winning meaning having a criminal record makes it more likely you will win than if you did not have a criminal record, especially in rural areas.

"Booth management" sounds nicely euphemistic - does it mean the sort of thing you might imagine?

It is a very wide term that has many meanings depending on the era and location.  It is mostly defensive where you have your people there at the voting booth to make sure the other side does not stop your voters from voting. 

The Left Front in WB used to organize the "slow vote" where their supporters will spend the day at the voting booth voting very slowly and creating a long line to get the marginal voter to give up due to long lines.  This works for the Left Front since their core vote was the largest.  In Northern India, in the 1980s and 1990s, it would often turn into outright rigging.  Part of the reason why INC lost Northern India so badly in 1977 even as the ruling party was because a lot of the local civil servants had it with the INC and actively rigged the vote against the INC along with local INC party workers that also had it with INC high command.  In some case in the 1980s and 1990s criminal gangs would show up and just throw out old voters and put in new votes in the ballot box although this only takes place once in a while.  With the advent of the EVM, all this does not work anymore.  These days booth management, a lot of time with criminal elements is mostly about making sure your voters show up to vote, and just standing outside the voting booth intimidates the other side not to show up.  Most of the work is done ahead of time by influencing local elites and landed interests to push your side.  Most of this stuff takes place in Northern India while in Southern India it is a totally different dynmanic.

[jaichind]

Voting over for phase 3 in UP and in Punjab.   Punjab turnout is clearly down from 2017.

For Punjab, it seems there are signs that SAD and BJP overperformed while INC underperformed.  If so AAP is en route to being the largest party and the outstanding question will be can AAP get a majority.

[jaichind]

Multiple media outlets report that AAP CM face Bhagwant Mann went to the wrong voting booth to vote. Good thing for AAP this is becoming news after the voting is over.

[jaichind]

Punjab's final turnout at 72% which is the lowest since 2002 and a significant drop from 77% in 2017.  Pro-INC sources continue to claim that Dalit turnout is up which I guess is true would be a positive INC signal although that would be good news for BJP as well given DSS support of BJP.  Still, the lower turnout almost certainly means a lot of 2017 INC voters did not turn out.  On the other side lower turnout does not seem to imply some sort of pro-AAP wave election.  The main winner of lower turnout seems to be SAD.  In theory, it helps BJP but it seems the turnout decline is greater in urban areas which would be bad for BJP.   I think INC is out but the chances of a hung assembly have gone up.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

TN Local body poll results coming out.  The ruling party usually does well in these types of elections and it is not a surprise that DMK and allies are sweeping the elections winning more than a majority of seats despite a significant number of independent (which I suspect most are amenable to working with DMK) winners.

The bigger surprise is how well both INC and BJP are doing running independently as most significant parties run independently in these races.  In the  Town Panchayat races it is so far (going by wins and leads in the 7604 seats up for grabs)

DMK: 4332
ADMK: 1197
INC: 346
BJP: 217
PMK: 94
MDMK: 21
VCK: 36
DMDK: 16
Others: 1227

The Municipal Council and Municipal Corporation results so far have similar trends with INC and then BJP being the 3rd and 4th behind a DMK landslide and AIADMK.

INC and BJP doing better than the various regional forces which do have strength in various areas.  AIADMK splinter AMMK is doing very poorly since it is not even really trying.  Sasikala seems to be focused on regaining control of AIADMK versus trying to hurt it from the outside.

[jaichind]

Phase 4 of UP (59 seats) voting in progress. Results from this phase from last few elections.

2019 BJP 51 SP 1 BSP 2 INC 5
2017 BJP 51 SP 4 BSP 2 INC 2
2014 BJP 44 SP 2 BSP 8 INC 5
2012 BJP 4 SP 39 BSP 12 INC 3 OTHERS 1

[jaichind]

Tamil Nadu ULB Elections: Cumulative seat count across Panchayat, Municipal Council and Municipal Corporation seats

Total Seats- 12818

DMK         7700
AIADMK    2008
INC            592
BJP            308
CPI(M)       166
PMK           126
AMMK         102
VCK             93
MDMK          89
CPI              58
IUML            41
DMDK          35
Others     1500

DMDK which was becoming a very powerful third force in 2004-2006 has now almost ceased to exist.  AMMK which was becoming a relevant force in 2017-2019 also now has dropped to irrelevance.   As noted before INC and BJP clearly outperformed while DMK swept the polls as expected.

[jaichind]

The poor performance of AIADMK in the most recent TN local elections has provoked more conflict within AIADMK on the possible return of former AIADMK leader Sasikala to the party.  The EPS faction clearly is opposed to this but the OPS faction which is based on the Thevar heavy South clearly is pushing for  Sasikala's return.  Clearly, both OPS and Sasikala being Thevar is a reason for this.  The OPS faction also points to the fact that AIADMK got wiped out in the South because AMMK clearly has split the AIADMK vote and handed a lot of seats to DMK even as AMMK itself won very little.  The poor election result has shifted power within the AIADMK from the ruling EPS faction toward a greater say for the OPS faction.  The chances of a Sasikala return to AIADMK is now clearly higher especially when you factor in the fact that the BJP wants a united AIADMK for the 2024 LS election.

[jaichind]

Phase 4 UP voting turnout was lower than in 2017.  So the trend in UP is clear, overall turnout is around 2%-3% lower than in 2017.  Mostly a somewhat negative signal for BJP.

[jaichind]

Anti-corruption poster in TN.  The word "bribe" was misspelled as "bride"  Yes, bribe giving is illegal and I guess so is bride giving.


BTW, back in the 1990s when corruption was somewhat a good deal worse than today on the PRC I used to see a bunch of signs like this (without misspelling at least) in the PRC as well.  They were useless and openly mocked.