Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

In all fairness, C's are not really comparable to the centrists they bear a superficial similarity with (your NEOS's/Radikale Venstres/En Marches/d66s etc). They have always had a vaguely populist feel to them, stemming from their origins in Castillian nationalism. (Although I gather their electorate is more ideologically heterogeneous)

I agree basically, but a couple of things. My opinion of Albert Rivera may be very biased and is completely unfavourable, but it's shared by many people in Spain (particularly in the left). I think that Albert Rivera is a fake liberal and a fake centrist. Possibly he is (or believes to be) centrist and liberal to some extent, but he is more right wing and populist than he proclaims. This trait surfaces with statements that resemble the founder of Falange José Antonio Primo de Rivera (likewise the eldest son of dictator Miguel Primo de Rivera). When Albert Rivera says "I don't see 'reds' or 'blues'', I only see Spaniards", he is repeating (intentionally or not) some ideas of Primo de Rivera about overcoming class struggle. I'm not implying that Albert Rivera is falangista (roughly equivalent to fascist). For instance, he is economically liberal and José Antonio advocated agrarian reform and the nationalization of the banking system. Also, there is a centralist tradition in the Spanish Liberalism that must be taken into account (Carlist Wars in XIX century ). He is a Spanish nationalist disguised of constitutionalist patriot, not as extreme as VOX but by no means a moderate  Albert Rivera was born in Catalonia and has roots in Andalusia, not in Castile. The denomination 'Castilian nationalism' is not correct. I know that Castile was the strongest part of the Hispanic Monarchy and we the Spanish speakers inherited the language originated in that region of Central Spain. Sometimes we say "Castilian language" insted of "Spanish". However, the Castilian regionalism or nationalism is represented by fringe parties like Tierra Comunera or the Castilian Party. They have nothing to do with Cs.

Allegedly Albert Rivera was a member of the PP youth before joining Cs. He has always denied that membership and claims that he voted the Catalan Socialists before joining the oranges. Rumours are insistent though.

El Mundo: "Albert Rivera was affiliated to PP three months before joiring Ciudadanos"

https://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2006/11/22/espana/1164203240.html


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[Oryxslayer]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

[Mike88]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

Sanchéz government was already, basically, on life-support even before the Andalusian election. He doesn't have the votes to pass his budget as the Catalan parties are refusing to support him because of the treatment of the jailed separatists. And this disastrous results for the PSOE, only makes things worse for him, as he will be pressured by both left and right, and it's unclear how he would act under pressure.

About the Gibraltar issue, it's just my opinion, but he made a fool of himself by acting all tough and "patriotic" and then caving in, like you said, at the 11th hour.

[Oryxslayer]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

Sanchéz government was already, basically, on life-support even before the Andalusian election. He doesn't have the votes to pass his budget as the Catalan parties are refusing to support him because of the treatment of the jailed separatists. And this disastrous results for the PSOE, only makes things worse for him, as he will be pressured by both left and right, and it's unclear how he would act under pressure.

Well I always expected him to fail on the budget, and it was always a just question of whether the Spanish election would be before/concurrent/after the EU election.

[Former President tack50]

El Confidencial has a handy map by municipality

https://www.elconfidencial.com/elecciones-andalucia/2018-12-02/los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-andaluzas-del-2-d-municipio-a-municipio_1675162/

As you can see, since PSOE won the election technically, there's a lot of red still. Cs apparently performed well near Cádiz of all places. The right wins in the Mediterranean coast which is its stronghold. Vox wins only one municipality, but it's actually a decently large one (El Eijdo)

[Vosem]

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

This decade, certainly; France 2012, Italy 2013, Sweden 2014, and Portugal 2015 all come to mind as pretty clear-cut examples of victories for left-wing parties. I'm probably missing some, too.

[ON Progressive]

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

This decade, certainly; France 2012, Italy 2013, Sweden 2014, and Portugal 2015 all come to mind as pretty clear-cut examples of victories for left-wing parties. I'm probably missing some, too.

Let's see here:

France 2012 - Negated by the complete and utter disaster that was 2017. Hollande ended up having atrocious approval ratings, which resulted in the PS getting only 6.4% of the vote in the first round of the Presidential race. This isn't mentioning the absolute destruction of the PS in 2015 regionals (where they lost 15 regions) and also the Parliamentary left losing 286 seats in the 2017 legislative elections.

Italy 2013 - Negated by the total catastrophe named the 2018 Italian election. The Italian left ended up losing 227 Chamber and 65 Senate seats, and there is absolutely no sign of recovery in national polling or in elections held since. The regional elections in Italy saw the PD lose all of the 3 regions they were defending except Lazio.

Sweden 2014 - Negated by 2018, where the Red-Greens alliance ended up losing seats. The Social Democrats had their worst performance in 107 years.

Portugal 2015 - This one I did actually forget, and unlike the other three, they haven't been negated by elections held afterwards.

The fact that we're having to look at elections that aren't even the most recent elections in their country to try to find any semblance of good elections for the European left says a lot about how awful a state it is in.

[Velasco]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.

[BigSerg]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.

At this point that is quite impossible. An approach of Cs to the left would destroy it in the elections and would only favor Vox.

[DavidB.]

So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?

[Former President tack50]

So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?

Well, the largest achievement will probably be the no confidence vote itself as well as overseeing the rise of the far right.

But yeah, the Sánchez government looks like it will be the least consequencial government in Spanish history, only rivaled by Calvo-Sotelo's one (1981-1982). Depending on when he calls the elections, it might also be the shortest (Calvo-Sotelo lasted slightly under 2 years)

[Velasco]

So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?

The final destination of the Franco's remains is very uncertain right now. I assume that you support leaving the dictator there, in a mausoleum built in homage to a mass murderer on the backs of slave labourers and surrounded by thousands of his victims. Would you support that Adolf Hitler was resting in a similar place in the vicinity of Berlin? Trust me, Valle de los Caídos is a sinister place.

[SPQR]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.

Ciudadanos agreeing to govern with VOX would (should?) burn all bridges at the european level between ALDE and the other non-nationalist parties.
Are they gonna sell their soul to the devil given these consequences?

I guess the time has come for Ciudadanos to decide what it actually is.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are we really complaining about a fascist's grave being desecrated?

[bigic]

As for Ciudadanos governing with Vox support, there are precedents in the EU. Although the parties are on the right relative to the other ALDE parties and I as a liberal don't endorse such deals.
NL: VVD-CDA + LPF (2002)/PVV (2010), although the deals were short-lived, lasting 1-2 years
DK: Venstre-Konservative(-LA)+DF (2001-2011, 2015-)
FI: Kesk-Kok-PerusS (2015-, although PerusS split not long after entering government, with anti-government faction staying in the party)
There may be a few more I'm not aware of...

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, it's not completely unprecedented at an EU scale but it's certainly not ideal. On the other hand there isn't really an alternative other than PSOE-Cs-AA or a grand coalition (PSOE-PP). Neither of which is happening.

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

I don't think that's entirely true, but they've certainly voted for political paralysis and they'll get that no matter...

[Velasco]

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?

[ag]

desecration of Franco's grave

Holy of Holies has, clearly, been rediscovered.

[Former President tack50]

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?

Oh, I'd actually be in favour of an alternative coalition if one was actually viable (say, PSOE+Cs with an overall majority).

But right now the only possibility would be either PSOE+Cs+AA (probably with Marín as premier) or a grand coalition, neither of which is happening. Though I'll admit I like the "Borgen-like" PSOE+Cs+AA with Marín as premier but I fear that would be worse for Spain in the long run, emboldening Vox and PP.

In any case it seems clear to me that they'll do a deal with Vox. I wonder what Manuel Valls has to say about it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements.

Yes, this is important. No blocs were on the ballot, the electorate clearly did not vote as if they existed.

[Former President tack50]

Also, while his prediction was complete garbage (then again so were the polls), Kiko Llaneras and El País have published a detailed analysis of Vox's voting patterns. Some are more surprising than others but they are all interesting especially when compared to similar parties elsewhere in Europe:

The most important factor seems to be the % of non-EU inmigrants, with Vox performing extremely well where there is a lot of inmigration



There's also a weaker correlation between population density and Vox voters, where Vox performs better in densely populated areas (ie cities). This seems reversed compared to other right wing populists like say AfD.



There's also a correlation between income and Vox votes. I guess Vox voters are not exactly "economically anxious"



However, there doesn't seem to be a correlation at all between unemployment and Vox votes



Finally, Vox certainly stole votes from the right and not the left. They performed better in areas where PP and Cs did well in 2015, not in areas where PSOE and Podemos/IU did well



https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/03/actualidad/1543829876_200181.html

By the way, the official website for the election actually has precinct data available, a rarity for Spanish elections! So if anyone wants to try to mess around with it, the option is there I guess

https://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2018.es/Mesas

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So obviously this is bad for Sanchez, but isn't even in worse for his enemies within the party? What power do Diaz and her lieutenants have without their control of the south?

[Velasco]

Susana Diaz should not survive after this catastriphic election. Diaz says that she would have resigned in case of defeat, but claims that coming first with that poor result is a victory. Diaz controls the party in Andalusia, but I think the national executive cimmittee should take action. She is clearly a political corpse. As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

The VOX stuff is intetesting. I saw the GAD3 chief pollster Narciso Michavila in TV. He says that  VOX grew exponentially in the last week, in paralallel to a increasing demobilization in the left. Michavila was making the poll that was released when polling stations closed. Why is it still illegal to publish polls in the last week?

[Oryxslayer]

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?

Oh, I'd actually be in favour of an alternative coalition if one was actually viable (say, PSOE+Cs with an overall majority).

But right now the only possibility would be either PSOE+Cs+AA (probably with Marín as premier) or a grand coalition, neither of which is happening. Though I'll admit I like the "Borgen-like" PSOE+Cs+AA with Marín as premier but I fear that would be worse for Spain in the long run, emboldening Vox and PP.

In any case it seems clear to me that they'll do a deal with Vox. I wonder what Manuel Valls has to say about it.

Yeah I would also prefer a govt without VOX here...but realistically C's would prefer having VOX on their side rather then any friend of Podemos. The only realistic other option I feel is PSOE+C's minority with AA effectively capitulating from the outside, but that won't last long and likely collapses after the expected 2019 election.