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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2125 on: December 02, 2018, 05:32:34 PM »

Yeah, it seems PSOE+Cs is out of the question even if it magically added up (it doesn't currently, short by 1 seat).

In any case if this happens at the national level I guess it's time to pack my bags and move to Portugal Tongue /s
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2126 on: December 02, 2018, 05:35:33 PM »

Congrts centrists! You made the far*right vote again with your terrible candidates (Diaz, here).
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Mike88
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« Reply #2127 on: December 02, 2018, 06:00:11 PM »

Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2128 on: December 02, 2018, 06:04:57 PM »

In a way it was always strange that Spain didn't have a successful RRWP. I guess PP's image was long strong enough among really right-wing people for them to take PP's actual policies for granted, but the discrepancy has been there for a long time and in addition to the economic crisis (which seems to help the far-left much more than the far-right in general) and the Catalonian issue, Spain has experienced mass immigration too. VOX's clear breakthrough in leftist Andalusia, of all places, is really significant: from this point onwards they are a serious national contender as well. Spain really needs it. Great evening.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2129 on: December 02, 2018, 06:13:28 PM »

as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason.

Because it doesn't fit The Discourse.
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« Reply #2130 on: December 02, 2018, 06:15:27 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2018, 06:21:03 PM by ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.

The problem is that the Cs will almost certainly go with PP + Vox over PSOE + AA because centrists will always take the side of the right wing over the side of the left wing.

In all fairness, C's are not really comparable to the centrists they bear a superficial similarity with (your NEOS's/Radikale Venstres/En Marches/d66s etc). They have always had a vaguely populist feel to them, stemming from their origins in Castillian nationalism. (Although I gather their electorate is more ideologically heterogeneous)
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2131 on: December 02, 2018, 06:18:32 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.

The problem is that the Cs will almost certainly go with PP + Vox over PSOE + AA because centrists will always take the side of the right wing over the side of the left wing.

In all fairness, C's are not really comparable to the centrists they bear a superficial similarity with (your NEOS's/Radikale Venstres/En Marches/D66s etc). They have always had a vaguely populist right feel to them, stemming from their origins in Castillian nationalism.

That is true enough. I still would argue that centrists support right wingers before left wingers though.
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« Reply #2132 on: December 02, 2018, 06:20:41 PM »

Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

It would be destroyed electorally. They will ultimately support the pp
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2133 on: December 02, 2018, 06:29:17 PM »

It's generally an error to get obsessed with labels. 'Centrist' has never been a particularly useful term, but has become entirely meaningless due to its use as a term of abuse by performative cretins in Rose Emoji Twitter. 'Left' and 'Right' in a Spanish context are mostly historical detritus - relics of the Civil War - rather than sure indications of policy preferences. If we're discussing the C's, then the thing to note is that no one who votes for them associates them with traditional political divisions; in fact that, along with the extremely hard line they take on the national question, is the whole point.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2134 on: December 02, 2018, 06:35:53 PM »

Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

It would be destroyed electorally. They will ultimately support the pp

Yeah, only possibility I see (and it's essencially impossible) it's a "Borgen-like" scenario where Cs' candidate wins, propped up by PSOE and a Podemos abstention.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2135 on: December 02, 2018, 06:43:05 PM »

Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

It would be destroyed electorally. They will ultimately support the pp

Yeah, only possibility I see (and it's essencially impossible) it's a "Borgen-like" scenario where Cs' candidate wins, propped up by PSOE and a Podemos abstention.
So it's basically election night talk. Rivera is trying to gain momentum from this, but, at the end of the day, he probably knows he has no option other than support Moreno.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2136 on: December 02, 2018, 07:00:39 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2018, 11:22:29 PM by Velasco »

In all fairness, C's are not really comparable to the centrists they bear a superficial similarity with (your NEOS's/Radikale Venstres/En Marches/d66s etc). They have always had a vaguely populist feel to them, stemming from their origins in Castillian nationalism. (Although I gather their electorate is more ideologically heterogeneous)

I agree basically, but a couple of things. My opinion of Albert Rivera may be very biased and is completely unfavourable, but it's shared by many people in Spain (particularly in the left). I think that Albert Rivera is a fake liberal and a fake centrist. Possibly he is (or believes to be) centrist and liberal to some extent, but he is more right wing and populist than he proclaims. This trait surfaces with statements that resemble the founder of Falange José Antonio Primo de Rivera (likewise the eldest son of dictator Miguel Primo de Rivera). When Albert Rivera says "I don't see 'reds' or 'blues'', I only see Spaniards", he is repeating (intentionally or not) some ideas of Primo de Rivera about overcoming class struggle. I'm not implying that Albert Rivera is falangista (roughly equivalent to fascist). For instance, he is economically liberal and José Antonio advocated agrarian reform and the nationalization of the banking system. Also, there is a centralist tradition in the Spanish Liberalism that must be taken into account (Carlist Wars in XIX century ). He is a Spanish nationalist disguised of constitutionalist patriot, not as extreme as VOX but by no means a moderate  Albert Rivera was born in Catalonia and has roots in Andalusia, not in Castile. The denomination 'Castilian nationalism' is not correct. I know that Castile was the strongest part of the Hispanic Monarchy and we the Spanish speakers inherited the language originated in that region of Central Spain. Sometimes we say "Castilian language" insted of "Spanish". However, the Castilian regionalism or nationalism is represented by fringe parties like Tierra Comunera or the Castilian Party. They have nothing to do with Cs.

Allegedly Albert Rivera was a member of the PP youth before joining Cs. He has always denied that membership and claims that he voted the Catalan Socialists before joining the oranges. Rumours are insistent though.

El Mundo: "Albert Rivera was affiliated to PP three months before joiring Ciudadanos"

https://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2006/11/22/espana/1164203240.html


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« Reply #2137 on: December 02, 2018, 07:03:24 PM »

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2138 on: December 02, 2018, 07:15:50 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2018, 07:19:31 PM by Mike88 »

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

Sanchéz government was already, basically, on life-support even before the Andalusian election. He doesn't have the votes to pass his budget as the Catalan parties are refusing to support him because of the treatment of the jailed separatists. And this disastrous results for the PSOE, only makes things worse for him, as he will be pressured by both left and right, and it's unclear how he would act under pressure.

About the Gibraltar issue, it's just my opinion, but he made a fool of himself by acting all tough and "patriotic" and then caving in, like you said, at the 11th hour.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2139 on: December 02, 2018, 07:20:05 PM »

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

Sanchéz government was already, basically, on life-support even before the Andalusian election. He doesn't have the votes to pass his budget as the Catalan parties are refusing to support him because of the treatment of the jailed separatists. And this disastrous results for the PSOE, only makes things worse for him, as he will be pressured by both left and right, and it's unclear how he would act under pressure.

Well I always expected him to fail on the budget, and it was always a just question of whether the Spanish election would be before/concurrent/after the EU election.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2140 on: December 02, 2018, 07:23:28 PM »

El Confidencial has a handy map by municipality

https://www.elconfidencial.com/elecciones-andalucia/2018-12-02/los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-andaluzas-del-2-d-municipio-a-municipio_1675162/

As you can see, since PSOE won the election technically, there's a lot of red still. Cs apparently performed well near Cádiz of all places. The right wins in the Mediterranean coast which is its stronghold. Vox wins only one municipality, but it's actually a decently large one (El Eijdo)
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Vosem
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« Reply #2141 on: December 02, 2018, 08:09:07 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

This decade, certainly; France 2012, Italy 2013, Sweden 2014, and Portugal 2015 all come to mind as pretty clear-cut examples of victories for left-wing parties. I'm probably missing some, too.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2142 on: December 02, 2018, 08:58:50 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

This decade, certainly; France 2012, Italy 2013, Sweden 2014, and Portugal 2015 all come to mind as pretty clear-cut examples of victories for left-wing parties. I'm probably missing some, too.

Let's see here:

France 2012 - Negated by the complete and utter disaster that was 2017. Hollande ended up having atrocious approval ratings, which resulted in the PS getting only 6.4% of the vote in the first round of the Presidential race. This isn't mentioning the absolute destruction of the PS in 2015 regionals (where they lost 15 regions) and also the Parliamentary left losing 286 seats in the 2017 legislative elections.

Italy 2013 - Negated by the total catastrophe named the 2018 Italian election. The Italian left ended up losing 227 Chamber and 65 Senate seats, and there is absolutely no sign of recovery in national polling or in elections held since. The regional elections in Italy saw the PD lose all of the 3 regions they were defending except Lazio.

Sweden 2014 - Negated by 2018, where the Red-Greens alliance ended up losing seats. The Social Democrats had their worst performance in 107 years.

Portugal 2015 - This one I did actually forget, and unlike the other three, they haven't been negated by elections held afterwards.

The fact that we're having to look at elections that aren't even the most recent elections in their country to try to find any semblance of good elections for the European left says a lot about how awful a state it is in.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2143 on: December 02, 2018, 10:49:26 PM »

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #2144 on: December 03, 2018, 06:51:16 AM »

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.


At this point that is quite impossible. An approach of Cs to the left would destroy it in the elections and would only favor Vox.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2145 on: December 03, 2018, 07:16:36 AM »

So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2146 on: December 03, 2018, 07:28:09 AM »

So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?

Well, the largest achievement will probably be the no confidence vote itself as well as overseeing the rise of the far right.

But yeah, the Sánchez government looks like it will be the least consequencial government in Spanish history, only rivaled by Calvo-Sotelo's one (1981-1982). Depending on when he calls the elections, it might also be the shortest (Calvo-Sotelo lasted slightly under 2 years)
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Velasco
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« Reply #2147 on: December 03, 2018, 08:27:34 AM »

So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?

The final destination of the Franco's remains is very uncertain right now. I assume that you support leaving the dictator there, in a mausoleum built in homage to a mass murderer on the backs of slave labourers and surrounded by thousands of his victims. Would you support that Adolf Hitler was resting in a similar place in the vicinity of Berlin? Trust me, Valle de los Caídos is a sinister place.
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SPQR
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« Reply #2148 on: December 03, 2018, 09:38:08 AM »

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.

Ciudadanos agreeing to govern with VOX would (should?) burn all bridges at the european level between ALDE and the other non-nationalist parties.
Are they gonna sell their soul to the devil given these consequences?

I guess the time has come for Ciudadanos to decide what it actually is.
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« Reply #2149 on: December 03, 2018, 11:21:06 AM »

Are we really complaining about a fascist's grave being desecrated?
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