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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370658 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: February 02, 2015, 12:02:30 PM »

Could PSOE simply refuse to ally with either party and keep triggering elections until someone can form a majority government or a working minority, like Ireland 1981-1982 or Greece 1989-1990?
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Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2015, 11:45:04 PM »


De eso nada, amigo, es fruta.
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Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2016, 12:29:19 PM »

So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately

PP, PSOE, and Ciudadanos did reach a deal to elect a Speaker (Patxi Lopez, from the PSOE) so that the new Parliament can convene, but I don't believe they've agreed to anything else so far.
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Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2016, 10:31:06 PM »

I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.
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Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2016, 02:08:18 PM »

I don't know how representative these are of Spain as a whole, but looks something like massive underperformance for the new parties and a large overperformance for the old (especially PSOE). PSOE+UP is 158, PP+C's is 152. If it stays this way, I think a third election could become inevitable.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2016, 02:12:23 PM »

which party is the one that's a PODEMOS affiliate without have PODEMOS in the name? ECP?

Yes -- that would be En Comu Podem, the Catalan affiliate.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2016, 02:24:22 PM »

Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99000CI.htm?lang=es

It's in Spanish, but that shouldn't really be a problem
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2016, 03:41:29 PM »

Are the C's in a bad place, though? They're still gaining, and even if the current results are accurate, they've lost less than 1.5% off their 2015 result and have lost significantly fewer seats than expected.

At the moment, PP/C's are at 168 and still gaining, with PSOE/UP at 158 and declining. (Compare to 2015 totals of 163 and 159). PNV has supported PP government in the past, as has the old CiU (though I suspect the modern CDC may be less willing, but if pressure is on, that may be a possibility too). I think if a few more seats trend right, then PP/C's supported by regional parties becomes a very likely scenario (though I'm sure C's and minor parties would force Rajoy's ouster).

It doesn't make sense to me that PP would rather keep Rajoy and not form government than dump him and be the dominant governmental partner for 4 years.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2016, 03:56:50 PM »

Down in the weeds for a moment, Tarragona's very amusing six-way tie from 2015 seems like it has repeated itself.

PP/C's are at 169, to PSOE/UP's 156. Including non-Catalonian right-wing regionalists, PP/C's/PNV/PNC is at 175 exactly. Gain one more seat, and the PP-led (but of necessity Rajoy-excluding) right-wing coalition comes into very clear view.
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Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2016, 04:24:40 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2016, 04:50:04 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2016, 04:51:57 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.

What's changed since 1996, when the PNV supported Aznar's first investiture vote?
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Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2016, 04:55:52 PM »

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2016, 05:01:10 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?

all other reasons aside, C's whole deal is being completely opposed to regional nationalism

Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

Seems like the most likely outcome.  Even if they get one more seat, the new PNV-reliant government would be very precarious. Rajoy is not known to be a great friend of the Basques.

The only other option would be sending for CDC. But that means referendum.

Rajoy and Rivera would both rather have a third general election than a referendum. So that's right out.
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Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2016, 05:54:48 PM »

Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”

Well, he will govern - till November or December, when the next elections happen.

Well, if the trends from this election continue, PP/C's will have a majority at the next round and then PP will probably dump him (probably replace him with someone ideologically similar, but Rajoy is poisonous at this point). If trends don't continue and there's not some radical unlikely-seeming change, then Rajoy will continue governing after the third election...

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

PNV could be convinced to back PSOE for stability's sake, certainly. But would PNV really enter into a coalition with Podemos, whom they are adversarial rivals with in the Basque Country? That seems even less likely than PNV backing the PP.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2016, 05:56:49 PM »

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.

Why would they need C in it? They have a majority between the two of them. Why share spoils with C?

PP/C's may be more palatable for PSOE to support from the outside than just PP. An outright PP/PSOE coalition seems unlikely even if Sanchez (who is strongly against any cooperation with PP) were to be removed by an internal coup.

Since Sanchez overperformed his polling and has maintained PSOE's status as the preeminent Spanish left, I would imagine he hangs on, which makes the chances of a PP/PSOE agreement -- of any sort -- very minute. Rajoy's leadership has also been bolstered by this election.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #16 on: June 27, 2016, 01:10:16 PM »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)

Will abstension of PNV be enough? The government in this case has 171 votes with 174 against it.

And would the leftists in Nueva Canarias want it?

On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming. The government would have 169 votes, but there are only 174 against it in this scenario, so on the second ballot it would work (unless the Canarians or the PNV back out). Whether the Canarians or the PNV would be down, well...

This is just another variant of the PP/C's/PNV/Canarians axis I was discussing upthread (which received, in my count, 175 votes total -- it does add up to 176, a majority, if you add the PSOE-aligned Canarians to the mix. How realistic that addition is, I don't know).

And, honestly, would PP even back a technocrat after having come in first in two elections straight? I think they could be motivated to dump Rajoy in favor of someone else (Rivera even suggested some names in an interview; he said Javier Maroto and Fernando Martinez Maillo would both be acceptable, though Maillo criticized Rivera for even bringing his name up), but they  may outright vote against some technocrat who comes from outside the party. PSOE/C's, as we've already seen, is not sufficient to form government, and both just lost seats in the elections.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2016, 12:25:45 PM »


On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming.

If that were the case, PNV and CC would be all you needed. Nueva Canarias is only there to get the 176th vote.

But it is not the case. I just checked the constitution. On the second vote you, indeed, only need a plurality instead of majority. This is why PSOE abstaining works. However, if PNV abstains and everybody else votes predictably, it will be, at best (even with Nuevas Canarias in favor of PP) 171 in favor, 174 against, and this is NOT enough. PNV must actively support the PP government, or else it simply does not have enough votes. Curiously, CDC abstaining, while PNV votes against, would have been enough.

Article 33, Section 3: Si el Congreso de los Diputados, por el voto de la mayoría absoluta de sus miembros, otorgare su confianza a dicho candidato, el Rey le nombrará Presidente. De no alcanzarse dicha mayoría, se someterá la misma propuesta a nueva votación cuarenta y ocho horas después de la anterior, y la confianza se entenderá otorgada si obtuviere la mayoría simple.

If the Congress of Deputies, by the vote of an absolute majority of its members gives its confidence to the said candidate, the King names him President. If the said majority is not reached, the same proposal is submitted to a new vote fourty eight hours after the previous one, and the confidence shall be understood given if it obtains a simple majority <plurality>.


Ah. I was wrong. Sorry.

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game. 

My understanding is, they are not going to abstain, at least, as long as Rajoy is the one proposed by PP.  They may have left an opening to abstain if it is somebody else. Like a PP-affiliated technocrat. That is their bid.

Abstaining for Rajoy or even another "mainline" PP politician would kill PSOE. Far too may people would never forgive this, and Podemos is an available alternative. I think you may be underestimating the tribal feeling there.

Where is the line between mainline PP politician and PP-affiliated technocrat? Even convincing PP to dump Rajoy in negotiations doesn't seem like it's going to be easy, and if the technocrat isn't clearly a member of PP, PP may not support him (and if he is, what difference is there between the technocrat and the mainline politician?). It seems like there's a lot more appetite for nonpartisan, technocratic governance among the PSOE than the PP.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2018, 08:09:07 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

This decade, certainly; France 2012, Italy 2013, Sweden 2014, and Portugal 2015 all come to mind as pretty clear-cut examples of victories for left-wing parties. I'm probably missing some, too.
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