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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 299540 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #2225 on: December 28, 2018, 05:42:16 am »

I must say, it is rather interesting how Franco didn't manage to hold onto significant popular support after death, and how much openly Francoist parties failed despite the survival of some vague notions of sociological Francoism in AP/PP. There's plently of examples of post-dictatorship democracies in which parties nostalgical of a given regime, its leader or his policies have managed to survive and even garner significant support, and it's fascinating to see Spain fully reversed that potential trend.

Possibly this is related to the particular circumstances of that historical period, after the death of Franco. On the one hand there is the trauma of the Spanish Civil War and the fear of another conflict, which was shared by people on the left and the right. On the other hand, there was a huge thirst of modernity in Spain that became increasingly evident in the 60s and the 70s. I guess both factors favoured the reformist elements of the regime (Afolfo Suárez and part of the UCD leadership), as well as favoured pact over rupture on the left. As for the second factor, modernity was associated with democracy and EU integration (this explains why Spain is still comparatively more pro EU than other countries). There was a strong "sociological Francoism", but a majority of these conservative elements was in favour of a "controlled" transition. The violent far right elements were a minority, but they were quite visible (Atocha killing in 1977, coup attempt in 1981). Only the collapse of the UCD allowed Manuel Fraga to become the leader of the opposition in 1982, but he was unable to break the so called 'Fraga's ceiling' due to his close association to the old regime. Fraga had to give way to a younger generation and retreat to his stronghold in Galicia...
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2226 on: December 28, 2018, 06:51:55 am »
« Edited: December 28, 2018, 09:12:31 am by tack50 »

For what is worth, you could argue that the "Jose María Ruiz Mateos Electoral Group" was also sort of a far right party, they ran on "Spain for the Spanish, jobs for everybody" and had an anti-EU campaign of sorts (back in the 80s and 90s!)

https://www.lasexta.com/programas/el-objetivo/noticias/asi-era-el-populismo-de-ruiz-mateos-que-me-voteis-leches-a-ver-si-os-enterais_20161120583226140cf24c3ff69be60c.html

Ruiz Mateos was somewhat more popular than Blas Piñar as well.

Though I think Ruiz Mateos wasn't really far right and more of just a pure populist protest vote against Felipe González and the establishment. Same with Jesus Gil's GIL later on (who never ran on far right positions I think)

Of course, Vox is very different from all of those. I can't really think of any comparisons that would come without a flaw.

Also, while Fuerza Nueva was the first to get seats in a Spanish parliament, Vox is still technically the first to get seats in a regional assembly, as by the time of the first regional elections (1983) Fuerza Nueva was already dead.

Closest thing to the far right getting seats in a regional assembly thus far was Plataforma x Catalunya in 2010, who got 2.5% of the vote and would have needed 3% to get in. PxC actually had some sucess in local elections, but nothing beyond that, and when the secessionist movement started they quickly lost steam as people started voting based on that and not on immigration
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Velasco
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« Reply #2227 on: December 28, 2018, 07:27:22 am »

José Maria Ruiz Mateos and Jesús Gil were clearly right wing populists. I think that Ruiz Mateos was a staunch social conservative, while the populist stances of Jesús Gil on law and order (probably on immigration too) were very close to Vox.  These populist figures may appeal the same kind of angry conservative voters than Vox. Probably the difference between them is that Vox is more "ideological" and more vocal on certain issues.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #2228 on: December 28, 2018, 05:03:11 pm »

I always viewed Jesus Gil as a more Berlusconian figure than a true hard rightist. (Actually, it's worth asking: did Marbella have a decent Vox vote?)
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bigic
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« Reply #2229 on: December 29, 2018, 02:26:07 am »

As for Gil, in Ceuta Vox is second by a recent poll with ~20% support. Ceuta was a Gil stronghold - they won the election in 1999.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2230 on: December 29, 2018, 04:43:19 am »
« Edited: December 29, 2018, 07:46:14 am by Velasco »

I always viewed Jesus Gil as a more Berlusconian figure than a true hard rightist. (Actually, it's worth asking: did Marbella have a decent Vox vote?)

Possibly Gil was more close to Berlusconi than to Salvini. I meant that Jesus Gil was a right wing populist with tough stances on law snd order. As pointed in the previous post, the GIL party was particularly succesful in Ceuta and Melilla. Both places are Spanish outposts in Morocco with strong Muslim populations. They sre PP strongholds and presumably breeding grounds for parties like Vox.

As for the Marbella municipality, results were as follows:

PSOE 24%, PP 22.8%, Cs 21.1%, Vox 13.3%, AA 12.6%, PACMA 2.4%

The PSOE plurality may be misleading. Marbella and the municipalities in the coast of Málaga province (Costa del Sol) lean to the right. PP came first in previous elections. This time the fragmentation of the right allowed that socialists are ahead despite heavy loses. The three parties on the right are all above avearage with an aggregate 57.2%, while PSOE and AA are below average with an aggregate 36.6%. Possibly the Vox results at precinct level are interesting to watch, especially in high income developments close to golf courses...

I linked a map of results by precinct in a previous page

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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2231 on: December 29, 2018, 08:17:24 am »

As for Gil, in Ceuta Vox is second by a recent poll with ~20% support. Ceuta was a Gil stronghold - they won the election in 1999.

Yeah, GIL was very strong for some bizarre reason in the 2 autonomous cities. The 2000 general election is actually an even better example with GIL being second with around 25% of the vote even though they polled at 0.35% nationally!

I wouldn't be too surprised if Vox managed to win the Ceuta or Melilla mayor-premiership or win the general elections there, particularly if PP collapses for some reason. I still think it should be strong enough for a plurality win though (remember Ceuta and Melilla have only 1 seat each)
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Mike88
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« Reply #2232 on: January 01, 2019, 06:15:04 pm »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2233 on: January 01, 2019, 06:19:40 pm »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2234 on: January 01, 2019, 06:27:57 pm »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

What probably happens is a PP-C's minority govt with outside support from VOX, similar to Andalusia right now.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2235 on: January 01, 2019, 06:29:59 pm »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

In a ungovernability crisis, Spain is already in one, sort of. But, yeah, these numbers don't exude stability. About C's, i don't think Vox would be a big issue as they would only negotiate with PP and then, maybe give crumbs to Vox to assure their votes in an investiture. After that, a PP-C's, or C's-PP, could govern with the occasional support of Vox or juggle with the divisions in the PSOE. That's my take.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2236 on: January 01, 2019, 07:02:42 pm »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

Worth noting that that poll gave a virtual tie in terms of seats between UP and Vox (45-47 for UP; 43-45 for Vox)

That seems odd (I don't think UP's vote is that inefficient, they should be on the low 50s IMO)

Also, that poll actually placed Vox in 1st place in the 2 cities in North Africa: Ceuta and Melilla! That does seem like a possibility as they are huge right wing stronholds where Vox's message will have a huge public but still
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2237 on: January 01, 2019, 07:07:19 pm »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

Actually, I don't think there will be an ungovernability crisis with these results. My guess for the next government formation is:

PSOE+Cs gets a majority dependent o no one, or at worst the tiny Canarian Coalition: PSOE+Cs government gets formed

If not, if PP+Cs+Vox has a majority, a PP+Cs coalition government is formed, with outside support from Vox

If neither of those has a majority, but somehow PSOE+UP has one (with the help of "pragmatic" nationalists, ie CC, PNV, Compromís, etc) then a PSOE+UP government gets formed

If none of those options has a majority (ie everything depends on the Catalan nationalists), then we indeed have a governability problem and we will have a 2nd election (or maybe a very weak PSOE minority government like the current one)

Right now, my chances would be:

55%: Some sort of PP+Cs+Vox government
30%: Some sort of PSOE+Cs government
10%: Governability crisis / New elections
5: Some sort of PSOE+UP or PSOE minority government
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jaichind
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« Reply #2238 on: January 02, 2019, 08:06:24 am »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

What probably happens is a PP-C's minority govt with outside support from VOX, similar to Andalusia right now.

Would not VOX be signing their own death warrant if they did that on the national level ?  They would be seen as sell outs by their anti-establishment vote base for peanuts.  I would imagine that their vote base would demand that any support they give has policy impact I would hand hardly see C allowing to take place if they were in the coalition. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #2239 on: January 02, 2019, 08:09:45 am »

That poll points out a terrible possibility. I'm certain that a PP-Cs government propped up by Vox (with José Maria Aznar as grey eminence) means going back in fundamental rights, a regressive social agenda, neoliberal economics and the re-centralization of the state. The attempt to solve the crisis in Catalonia through the indefinite implementation of direct rule (via article 155) means the £mposition of a state of exception. That move would suppose rising tension and unrest, as well as fuelling separatism. In other words: right wing nationalism means democratic involution. Hard times are coming.

A coalition between the socialists and the orange populists would be less terrible,  but we are not even cose to that posdibility at this moment. The new year will be turbulent, that's for sure.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2240 on: January 02, 2019, 11:12:51 am »

Here is the full El Mundo poll, which shows the far-right VOX gaining rapidely:



If you look at their July results, it seems VOX is gaining across the board from all major parties.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2241 on: January 02, 2019, 11:18:17 am »

I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?
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Umengus
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« Reply #2242 on: January 02, 2019, 02:00:37 pm »

I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?

earthquake if so.

Yes, probably ENF.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2243 on: January 02, 2019, 02:54:10 pm »

I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?

Actually, I think they've been on talks with both ECR and ENF. I'd say they eventually join ECR and not ENF, but I could be wrong
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Velasco
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« Reply #2244 on: January 03, 2019, 05:25:32 am »

I think it's quite irrelevant which European group will join Vox. I'd say that in all likelihood it will be far right and eurosceptic.

More interesting is the Vox blackmail to PP and Cs in Andalusia. In order to vote the investiture of PP candidate Juan Manuel Moreno, the far right party demands that blues and oranges remove public funds to support measures against gender based violence. They are included in the 90 point deal signed by PP and Cs. Vox is not willing to vote funds to protect women, because gender based violence is an invention of feminazis in the particular cosmovision of the far right party (Bolsonaro would support this). PP and Cs spokepersons rejected the Vox demands with varying degrees of firmness. However, Vox is crystal water here: if PP and Cs want to fight gender vased violence, they can negotiate with PSOE and AA. Either Vox or PP and Cs will have to give in, otherwise the investiture fails and Andalusia goes to a repetition of elections...
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2245 on: January 03, 2019, 06:30:39 am »

To be honest, of all the things negotiations could get stuck on, I'm surprised it's gender violence of all things! I'd have expected stuff like centralization and closing down the regional TV broadcaster (Canal Sur) to be much bigger hurdles

Remember Cs originally had a similar position to Vox on this (back in 2015 they wanted to repeal the old gender violence law and replace it with an "family violence" law). And PP has also been critical of this in recient days. Then again most proposals on the matter pass unanimously (including the 2004 gender violence act) but still, I never expected this to be the biggest hurdle.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2246 on: January 03, 2019, 08:31:49 am »
« Edited: January 03, 2019, 08:36:46 am by Velasco »

To be honest, of all the things negotiations could get stuck on, I'm surprised it's gender violence of all things! I'd have expected stuff like centralization and closing down the regional TV broadcaster (Canal Sur) to be much bigger hurdles

Remember Cs originally had a similar position to Vox on this (back in 2015 they wanted to repeal the old gender violence law and replace it with an "family violence" law). And PP has also been critical of this in recient days. Then again most proposals on the matter pass unanimously (including the 2004 gender violence act) but still, I never expected this to be the biggest hurdle.

The regional government can't reverse the devolution of education, justice or healthcare. Another question is that a right wing nationalist government takes office after the next general elections. Then the new cabinet (led by Casado or Rivera) implements the state of emergency on Catalonia (article 155) and undertakes the re-centralization of Spain. The hypothetical right wing government would be  coalition of two parties (PP and Cs) propped up by a third party (Vox) that pushes further to the right. However the complete dismantling of regional autonomy is not possible without a constitutional reform and there's no quorum, so regional autonomy would be diminished but not abolished as Vox advocates. Vox also wanted to close the Andalusian TV and radio broadcaster, but Santiago Abascal and friends realized that it's necessary to reform the statute of autonomy and downgraded the demand to severe spending cuts. The belligerent attitude of Vox towards gender violence policies is not surprising at all, because the repeal of legislation was one of the main campaign banners. Back in the day PP voted to pass the law against gender violence and Cs receded due to heavy criticism during the 2015 campaign. Even though PP and Cs are not sympathetic towards feminists, they can't repeal legislation without paying a price because concern on gender based violence is widespread in society. On the other hand, there are more subtle ways to boycott a legislation than those advocated by Vox. For instance, the Rajoy administration lowered the funds drastically. However, the deal between PP and Cs says that measures against gender based violence will have adequate funds. The radical male chauvinists at Vox can't stand this.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2247 on: January 03, 2019, 01:26:53 pm »
« Edited: January 03, 2019, 01:30:35 pm by tack50 »

There isn't much data about this poll (does seem to be legit though), but if it's true, I'd be very worried about 2019:

La Nueva España for Asturias regional elections



https://asturias24horas.com/derecha-e-izquierda-muy-ajustadas/

By coalition:

PSOE-Podemos-IU: 50.0%
PP-Cs-Foro-Vox: 47.6%
PSOE-Cs: 37.7%

Seems like Foro Asturias (a PP split formerly led by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, development minister under Aznar) is dead in the long run. They might barely survive 2019, but they should really think about rejoining PP (or, considering Foro was originally to the right of PP, join Vox instead).

Vox of course quite high up and Podemos collapses. PP down, but less than expected. Cs rises quite a bit, but not that much, and is only a point above Vox! IU surprisingly stagnant, though I wonder how the Actua thing will work out in the end (IU-Asturias has traditionally been the most anti-Podemos branch, but their leader, Gaspar Llamazares, has split from IU and formed a new party).

As for government formation, the 2 blocks are close while the centrist block is very far from a majority. Asturias actually uses 3 constituencies and I can't find a seat allocation so we just have the numbers to work with (though it shouldn't affect the results that much in Asturias' case, but in other regions it would)

I'd rate Asturias as lean PSOE for now. It's probably one of the very few regions where they are still favoured after the Vox earthquake. However it's definitely not safe and I wouldn't be too surprised if PP ruled here as well.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2248 on: January 07, 2019, 11:52:45 am »

Tonight we will get a proper poll (or maybe even 2!). However, today there was a part of the poll released, which in my opinion is very interesting.

What should be the government's response to the Catalan problem?

39%: Apply article 155 again
20%: Propose a new statute of autonomy
14%: Keep talking but without concessions
9%: Do a referendum
18%: Undecided

Party crosstabs



In general, PSOE and Podemos are very split while PP, Cs and Vox are mostly unified on "155 4ever!"
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« Reply #2249 on: January 09, 2019, 06:00:20 pm »

News in Andalucia: PP and Vox have finally reached an agrement.

This means that Vox will finally vote in favour of Juanma Moreno (PP) as premier of the region.

Interestingly, there has still not been a Vox-Cs direct negotiation, but instead 2 parallel negotiations: PP-Cs to form a coalition government, then PP-Vox (without Cs) to get their support.

In any case, barring a major upset PP will finally oust PSOE of this region.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/09/spanish-conservatives-sign-deal-far-right-vox-party-govern-andalusia/
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