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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Abandon hope all ye who register here)
  Spanish elections and politics (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 299126 times)
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« on: January 05, 2015, 05:01:06 pm »

Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2015, 02:33:08 pm »

I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2015, 04:37:58 pm »

Cheers! I was guessing they were eroding PP, but I knew they had moved populist left last Catalan election. I also kind of supposed that C's base in Catalonia was Castillian implants rather than the indigenous population, but that may not be true?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2015, 04:01:25 pm »

Wow so the only regions not having elections this year are the Basque Country and Galicia? Intense.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2015, 11:24:25 am »



Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.

In the regional votes, the rise of Podemos has often washed away or diluted many regional leftists, greens, direct democracy activists, protest parties, regionalists and liberals.

Does Vox still exist Velasco? Why did they - and other rightist threats to PP fail?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2015, 07:24:07 pm »

well, upyd did start to crater in the polls around podemos's rise. I imagine it was picking up a healthy amount of protest votes from the perpetually dissatisfied (and remember Diaz is an ex-PSOE person) secular left.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2015, 04:00:47 pm »

Velasco, what is the status of nuclear power in Spain? Have Podemos and the other new parties found a position on the plants?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2015, 07:55:28 pm »

Wow. That poll is ... Something.

If the PP are savaged in May, could Rajoy be forced out by the caucus and replaced with a more palatable candudate?

Also should andulacia be its own thread?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2015, 04:17:44 am »

I was also shocked by your post implying above that Rajoy himself controls who gets to be lead candidate in the regions. That doesn't seem like very healthy party democracy.

And even crooked polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2015, 03:18:12 am »

Huh, I assumed that the Extramadura PP would be dead in the water, given the circumstances.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2015, 03:33:46 pm »

Metroscopia seems to typically over poll the insurgent parties (or else the other pollsters understate them) from what I've seen.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2015, 04:25:55 am »

Man the PSC and PPC are getting eaten alive in Catalonia. :0 also lmao at Spanish fleggers

Why can't Compromis and Podemos run on a common list?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2015, 05:52:39 am »

Thanks.

It looks like Diaz is in more trouble in Andulacia. None of the other parties are refusing to bite. Reelection likely?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2015, 01:29:05 pm »

Any English language results pages?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2015, 04:21:24 pm »

I know the failure of UpyD has been a long time coming, but these results (especially from Madrid) have to make them pause for thought. Will they even last to the general.

What happened to Bildu?  PODEMOS stole their thunder?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2015, 04:54:24 pm »

wtf is happening in Castilla La Mancha? Did nobody tell them this election is about the downfall of two-party politics?

Also they must have some crazy high threshold, because C's has 8.73% of the vote and no seats.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2015, 05:08:45 pm »

Navarre looks like fun. The UPN was last time helped into office by the regional branch of the PSOE, but it will need another ally now. There is a mad four way pile up for second place between Podemos, PSOE Bildu and Geroa Bai.

These El Pais results are really fun to play with btw. I'm trying to find a single result that actually has a majority. All I've found so far is Ceuta, one of the little Spanish enclaves in Morocco.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2015, 05:18:52 pm »

hilarious municipal results in Catalonia.

Podemos's insistence on running in like a billion municipal outfits really makes it complicated to assess how well they did on a national scale lol.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2015, 01:43:37 pm »

Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2015, 09:13:01 am »

This is all very fun. I have a few questions though:

What are C's opinions towards non-separatist regionalists and nationalists (CC, PAR, PRC) or are they still opposed to further devolution?

why did Cascos resign in Asturias? Is FAC now dead without him?

Why is Navarre so hideously fragmented?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2015, 03:31:45 pm »

The PP, it has occurred to me watching these elections, must be the worst major centre-right party in Europe. Possibly worse than the GOP. How can they have the gall to compare anyone to dictators when their party was founded by a member of Franco's cabinet, their rhetoric remains unchanged from the 30's and their internal party democracy is about as flourishing as North Korea's?
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2015, 03:47:59 pm »

Socialists municipal heatmap



Popular Party heatmap



Overall:

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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2015, 03:30:39 am »

Is thee any major municipality which still has a majority government.
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2015, 09:22:10 am »

I missed this, but news from Catalonia: The CiU alliance has broken down after 37 years due to the independence issue (UDC opposes independence).
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c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2015, 03:55:17 pm »

Btw Velasco, has the indirect portion of the Senate been elected by the regions yet? Or is that done at some later date?

PP doing fairly well in current polls. A hypothetical PP-C coalition could have a healthy majority. Greek effect?
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