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Iowa Republican Caucus 2012, if that counts.

Joe Biden pushed the prices down button in the Oval Office??? This must be a mistake, maybe he is going senile

[Final ResultCortez-Mastro (D) +0.9]

I can understand the Biden campaign thinking polls are wrong after 2022.

Take a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the Nevada Senate race 2 years ago.

The last few read like this:

Laxalt (R) +5
Laxalt +3
Laxalt +2
Laxalt +6
Laxalt +5

RCP Average: Laxalt +3.4

Final Result
Cortez-Mastro (D) +0.9


That's only one example, but I remember everybody expecting a red wave similar to 2010 or 2014, but it was nothing close to that, and most of the polling grossly overestimated the Trump-endorsed candidates.

Why do Republicans seemingly pretend this didn't happen?

[intend]

And the spamming resumes. Once again, yelling things is not genocide and conducting a defensive war is also not genocide.

The crime of genocide require the intend to commit genocide.

Fortunately, we have Israeli official's on owns words on that.

Minnesota.

Could be New Hampshire if Democrats win the governorship there this year.

It’s that time of the month again…

Harvard/Harris

🟥 Trump 49% (+6)
🟦 Biden 43%

With leans
🟥 Trump 53% (+6)
🟦 Biden 47%
—
🟥 Trump 45% (+5)
🟦 Biden 40%
🟨 RFK Jr 14%

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HHP_May2024_KeyResults.pdf

Trump is just benefits from being the OUTPARTY just like Ds were in 2019, and indictments don't matter without convictions that's what it's coming down to.

If people arent being employed how much honestly can he be

A bit better, but still very vulnerable. He'd very easily be a boogeyman for the right and I'm not sure how he'd navigate some of the culture war issues, but even though he's older than Biden, he looks and speaks more energetically, so the age issue wouldn't be hurting him nearly as much, particularly with younger people. Whether or not he could get even a tiny amount of his agenda through Congress, particularly if Democrats proved to be a thorn in his side, is also a good quesiton.

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

How do most people you know plan to vote?

I don’t usually ask people for their political preferences, I find that coming in too strong and meddlesome. But in general, on my observation, they absolutely hate both candidates and they would’ve preferred somebody else winning in their respective primaries. The hispanics I know though in my area doesn’t like Biden.

It's hard to find ppl who unironically like Biden.

Except for on this forum.

Lol the people that votes R are rich not poor people c'mon

Did you ever politically/ mentally mature past the year 2006?

Learn to win an Eday that isn't 2016 as far as Trump you aren't gonna get one penny if he wins we all are screwed if he wins