🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Hnv1]

The stereotype of the elderly die Linke voter doesn't seem very accurate then...

Steadily dying out or leaving the party to other alternatives (pun intended)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I've already switched the TV off. Always forget how boring election night coverage actually is. Just a load of interviews with about three seconds of excitement when the polls close [/hottake]

Say what you like about FPTP it tends to lead to far more interesting election coverage than PR.

[The Mikado]

The stereotype of the elderly die Linke voter doesn't seem very accurate then...

Oryx beat me to it, but it's more that the old people voting Linke are...ahem...aging out of the electorate, steadily.

[Astatine]

The stereotype of the elderly die Linke voter doesn't seem very accurate then...

Steadily dying out or leaving the party to other alternatives (pun intended)

Indeed:



Die Linke is the only party from which the AfD can gain voters, they supporters to every other party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Essentially in the East they're a fairly typical postcommunist 'social democratic' party, whereas in the West they're a hard Left Red-Green affair. So very different electorates. In Berlin, of course, you see both.

[pikachu]

Noob question, but why does Germany have a thing against minority governments?

[Lechasseur]

Essentially in the East they're a fairly typical postcommunist 'social democratic' party, whereas in the West they're a hard Left Red-Green affair. So very different electorates. In Berlin, of course, you see both.

What does that mean?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Aging out is a thing, but that alone doesn't explain Linke losing 2/3rds of their East Germany vote in 10 years.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've already switched the TV off. Always forget how boring election night coverage actually is. Just a load of interviews with about three seconds of excitement when the polls close [/hottake]

Say what you like about FPTP it tends to lead to far more interesting election coverage than PR.

The fun coverage about coalition formation in the days and months that follow more than makes up for it.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wonder what Scholz thinks about the impossibility of an R₂G coalition?

Is he relieved because he doesn't need to agonize over the initiation of exploratory talks with the Communists?
Or does he regret not explicitly having ruled out a coalition with the ex-SED?

[Hnv1]

The stereotype of the elderly die Linke voter doesn't seem very accurate then...

Steadily dying out or leaving the party to other alternatives (pun intended)

Indeed:



Die Linke is the only party from which the AfD can gain voters, they supporters to every other party.

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

[brucejoel99]

What is the likelihood of  Grand Coalition 2.0 (post-Merkel and seemingly with a SPD chancellor)?

It only happens in the unlikely event that both traffic-light & Jamaica negotiations were to fail.

I'm of the opinion that another election's more likely tbh

Idk, this is Germany: stability & continuity are seemingly valued above everything else, & a 2nd election seems only like a last-resort, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency type of option for the event that GroKo negotiations were to themselves fail.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder what Scholz thinks about the impossibility of an R₂G coalition?

Is he relieved because he doesn't need to agonize over the initiation of exploratory talks with the Communists?
Or does he regret not explicitly having ruled out a coalition with the ex-SED?

Probably just annoyed that their under-performance is gonna cost him a lot of leverage in the traffic-light negotiations, & a Plan B in the event that said negotiations fall through.

[Velasco]

What is the likelihood of  Grand Coalition 2.0 (post-Merkel and seemingly with a SPD chancellor)?

Slim imo

I don't think the CDU would agree to that

The CDU would probably be unwilling to join a grand coalition it does not lead.
The SPD would definitely be unwilling to join a grand coalition it does not lead.
It's one of the less likely possibilities.

Sure, hut there is a problem. While SPD and Greens would easily reach an agreement, the FDP is likely to raise high demands. The question is, in case traffic light coalition talks fail because of Lindner,  would the Union join the SPD for the sake of stability? Or rather tensions within rhe Union would make Grand Coalition impossible?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Aging out is a thing, but that alone doesn't explain Linke losing 2/3rds of their East Germany vote in 10 years.

The AfD has entrenched itself as the new "lobby party" for East Germans, thus depriving the Linke of a bunch of votes.

[Logical]

DIE LINKE is currently ahead in Wahlkreis 84,86 and 153 (2 Berlin seats and 1 in Leipzig). Looks like they will make it even if they end up under the threshold.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Aging out is a thing, but that alone doesn't explain Linke losing 2/3rds of their East Germany vote in 10 years.

Macroeconomy is much, much better in East Germany since 2013, with unemployment levels back to around or even below 5%. People voted for them when unemployment was 10-20%, but now things are "okay", and these voters are entertaining other options as well

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the likelihood of  Grand Coalition 2.0 (post-Merkel and seemingly with a SPD chancellor)?

Slim imo

I don't think the CDU would agree to that

The CDU would probably be unwilling to join a grand coalition it does not lead.
The SPD would definitely be unwilling to join a grand coalition it does not lead.
It's one of the less likely possibilities.

Sure, hut there is a problem. While SPD and Greens would easily reach an agreement, the FDP is likely to raise high demands. The question is, in case traffic light coalition talks fail because of Lindner,  would the Union join the SPD for the sake of stability? Or rather tensions within rhe Union would make Grand Coalition impossible?

How things go there will be dependent on who has more seats. However, I suspect SPD would sooner go new elections than play second fiddle to the Union for a third time.

[Lechasseur]

Aging out is a thing, but that alone doesn't explain Linke losing 2/3rds of their East Germany vote in 10 years.

Macroeconomy is much, much better in East Germany since 2013, with unemployment levels back to around or even below 5%. People voted for them when unemployment was 10-20%, but now things are "okay", and these voters are entertaining other options as well

Tbh I suspect the main reason unemployment has dropped in the East is because of people moving West.

I have a friend at work from Sachsen-Anhalt and he told me that most of the young people in his town have left either to move to Lepizig (closest major city) or to West Germany.

[urutzizu]

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

I mean having talked to people in my social circles about the election, I am now pretty sure about 50% of young people in Germany don't really vote on any Ideological basis at all, and even where they do (those who vote green because they care about climate change), it is mostly rather shallow. We shouldn't read to much into the decisions of people, and Lindner is just simply a quite popular and subjectively likable Individual just as Wagenknecht was in 2017.

[parochial boy]

I've already switched the TV off. Always forget how boring election night coverage actually is. Just a load of interviews with about three seconds of excitement when the polls close [/hottake]

Say what you like about FPTP it tends to lead to far more interesting election coverage than PR.

The fun coverage about coalition formation in the days and months that follow more than makes up for it.

Being honest, I tend to switch off from that as well. Most of the fun comes from the inevitable crushing disspointment of seeing my side always lose, followed by pouring over map and the explanations as to "why place X votes for party Y" over the following couple of weeks

[Hnv1]

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

I mean having talked to people in my social circles about the election, I am now pretty sure about 50% of young people in Germany don't really vote on any Ideological basis at all, and even where they do (those who vote green because they care about climate change), it is mostly rather shallow. We shouldn't read to much into the decisions of people, and Lindner is just simply a quite popular and subjectively likable Individual just as Wagenknecht was in 2017.

I have quite a lot of friends in Germany who were radical leftists back in the days and now vote alliance or SPD as moderates (one votes Partei because he simply doesn't care and moved to Aachen). All the lawyers I know from Germany vote FDP, without an exception. But they don't mix.

Granted I don't know that many young voters, but that seems like quite a high swing between polarized parties in ideology and demographics

[Lechasseur]

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

I mean having talked to people in my social circles about the election, I am now pretty sure about 50% of young people in Germany don't really vote on any Ideological basis at all, and even where they do (those who vote green because they care about climate change), it is mostly rather shallow. We shouldn't read to much into the decisions of people, and Lindner is just simply a quite popular and subjectively likable Individual just as Wagenknecht was in 2017.

I'm not surprised to hear that. Germany's a country with low political and social polarization where things are going well and where the major parties are relatively similar.

At that point it is somewhat understandable why people just vote for the party whose leader they like most.

[Lechasseur]

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

I mean having talked to people in my social circles about the election, I am now pretty sure about 50% of young people in Germany don't really vote on any Ideological basis at all, and even where they do (those who vote green because they care about climate change), it is mostly rather shallow. We shouldn't read to much into the decisions of people, and Lindner is just simply a quite popular and subjectively likable Individual just as Wagenknecht was in 2017.

I have quite a lot of friends in Germany who were radical leftists back in the days and now vote alliance or SPD as moderates (one votes Partei because he simply doesn't care and moved to Aachen). All the lawyers I know from Germany vote FDP, without an exception. But they don't mix.

Granted I don't know that many young voters, but that seems like quite a high swing between polarized parties in ideology and demographics

What do you mean by this?

[Alcibiades]

Despite the exit polls being closer than we thought, make no mistake that this is an emphatic rejection of the CDU/CSU by the electorate, and a good result for the SPD.