🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well this will be interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

tfw Olaf Scholz is Napoelon in your metaphor


In all seriousness, in the grand scheme of things (and regardless of how the exact vote count shakes out, since it's likely to be a few points off), these are very bad results for both the SPD and CDU, and show that what's left of the old postwar party system is continuing its long decline.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

tfw Olaf Scholz is Napoelon in your metaphor


In all seriousness, in the grand scheme of things (and regardless of how the exact vote count shakes out, since it's likely to be a few points off), these are very bad results for both the SPD and CDU, and show that what's left of the old postwar party system is continuing its long decline.

I don't think this is a bad result for the SPD, given that they are poised to be the largest party, especially when early polls had them fading into irrelevance. Maybe it's a bad result compared to the 70s and 80s, but I'm not sure that really matters.

"Barely 4 points over their worst result in all of history" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. We can play expectations game all we want with pre-election polls, but in the end, there are long-term trends at play, and a 4-point blip doesn't really change them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

Yes, there was a slight reform that not every overhang seats gets compensated, which will benefit CSU a lot since they will probably sweep almost all of the seats in Bavaria. Confusing reform though, I don't know anyone who could explain when which seats get compensated.

Ughhh, how stupid. I have my problems with the German law but at least the overhang system made it pretty clear how the overall seat distribution would work.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

Hahahaha, Many users complain about this, but in Canadian elections "The popular vote doesn't matter in a parliamentary system," okay.

What?

Pretty sure you didn't see a lot of support for FPP in the Canada thread...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

Hahahaha, Many users complain about this, but in Canadian elections "The popular vote doesn't matter in a parliamentary system," okay.

What?

Pretty sure you didn't see a lot of support for FPP in the Canada thread...

If you weren't there in the Canada thread on election night, Serg conflates acknowledgement of the status-quo with support for the status-quo to weakly "accuse" supporters of election reform of hypocrisy. Nevermind the obvious irony.

Especially ironic for someone with a blue avatar, but enough about this clown. We probably shouldn't let him pollute the thread.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like every updated projection gets better for the SPD. They've probably got this. FDP also going up, and Greens and AfD are going down.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like every updated projection gets better for the SPD. They've probably got this. FDP also going up, and Greens and AfD are going down.

Still no chance of an SPD-FDP-Linke coalition?

Please learn anything about German politics before you post again. Please.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've already switched the TV off. Always forget how boring election night coverage actually is. Just a load of interviews with about three seconds of excitement when the polls close [/hottake]

Say what you like about FPTP it tends to lead to far more interesting election coverage than PR.

The fun coverage about coalition formation in the days and months that follow more than makes up for it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

3. Half FPTP, half PR with overhang seats to keep proportionality.

Technically speaking, that's actually wrong.
We have a proportional system. The direct seat won by a party are reckoned up with the number of list seats won by a party via proportional second vote. That's why our voting system is called "personalisiertes Verhältniswahlrecht".

4. Linke-Greens-SPD-FDP-CDU-AfD

Mmmmmmmmhhh...
That's one possible answer, but many pundits would switch SPD and Greens.

And FDP and CDU.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lindner says the Greens and FDP should first hold discussions together about the third partner. Could be big news.

I understand why the FDP might prefer a Jamaica coalition, but why would the Greens? Do they think they’d have more negotiating leverage than with the SPD?

FDP does seem to have a history of coming in with big demands and bold proclamations and coming out empty-handed. Fingers crossed that continues.

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

The Democrats lost votes there last year to Trump.

for completely unrelated reasons...

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

The Democrats lost votes there last year to Trump.

for completely unrelated reasons...

Yes. I made a joke.

Sorry, it's hard to tell with all the unironic bad takes flying around here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.

I mean, wouldn't this apply to the CDU too? Plus especially in a traffic light coalition I expect the SPD to counter this influence (I understand the worry if Jamaica happens)

The CDU under Merkel and Laschet has taken a far more pragmatic stance on economic governance than you would have imagined a decade ago. I still consider it far too timid, of course, but they're not full-blown true believers like the FDP. I highly doubt a government with the FDP in it would have agreed to the EU-wide stimulus plan.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They have the actual map here: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Anyway, impressive how well CDU held up in North-Rhine-Westphalia, given that it was completely shut out of almost all of Northern Germany otherwise. This is a really strange-looking map by historical comparisons.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They have the actual map here: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Anyway, impressive how well CDU held up in North-Rhine-Westphalia, given that it was completely shut out of almost all of Northern Germany otherwise. This is a really strange-looking map by historical comparisons.

That's the second-vote map, though.

Presumably that's a better metric that first votes, given the possibility of local candidate quality causing distortions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The "Neoliberalism means nothing" canard is especially rich coming from someone who's so obviously LARPing as the most bog-standard caricature of a neoliberal. You know exactly what it means my dude.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

I will now accept my accolades:

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

I maintain that continuing GroKo would be the right choice. There's a lot to criticize about the CDU (and I certainly have) but they're fundamentally a serious party of responsible adults, not a gaggle of entitled rich kids like the FDP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BBC: German election: Seven things we learned

The 8th point was in fact relevant for the election.
Because some polling station ran out of ballots, additional ballots had to be delivered subsequently, which however was fraught with difficulties, as the streets were congested owing to the Berlin Marathon.

Hahahahaha wow

This is NYCBOE-level incompetence. Playing against the German stereotype here.