Polish Politics and Elections

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

nobody said it but the latest vote dump brings PiS under 36%

[Storr]

nobody said it but the latest vote dump brings PiS under 36%

Let's go! PiS 35.92% at 96.24% reporting.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Constituency No. 1, Legnica, fully reporting. 34.80% PiS, 33.78% PO, 10.75% TD, 9.51% Lewica, 6.33% Konf. Topline in 2019 was 42-25, so this is a major lurch from PiS to PO.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

96.24% reporting (+/- compared to 94.92% in)

PiS: 35.92% (-0.21%)
KO: 30.22% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.49% (+0.05%)
Kon: 7.16% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

[Logical]

Consituency no. 11 (Sieradz) fully reported
PiS - 41.46% (-8.35) 221,031
KO - 25.89% (+5.41) 138,038
Third Way - 14.50% (+4.21) 77,313
Left - 7.73% (-4.25) 41,188
Konfederacja - 6.82% (+0.92) 36,383

Seats
PiS - 6 (-1)
KO - 3
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/11

[Duke of York]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

TD looks to be the big winner here.

What party is TD? how are they the big winner in Warsaw?

Agrarian opposition. Warsaw isn't the sort of place I expect for them to do well

Knowing that I will agree its strange for them to be doing well there. I guess people wanted the ruling party nationally out and saw it as an option.

[Germany1994]

96.24% reporting (+/- compared to 94.92% in)

PiS: 36.92% (-0.21%)
KO: 30.22% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.49% (+0.05%)
Kon: 7.16% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

PiS is already under 36 %. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Constituency No. 22, Krosno, fully reporting. This is part of PiS's heartland in the southeasternmost corner of the country, bordering Ukraine. The party fell from 63% four years ago to 55% this weekend.

[M0096]

Constituency No. 1, Legnica, fully reporting. 34.80% PiS, 33.78% PO, 10.75% TD, 9.51% Lewica, 6.33% Konf. Topline in 2019 was 42-25, so this is a major lurch from PiS to PO.

Opposition also flipped all 3 Senate seats here (constituencies 1-3).

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

96.24% reporting (+/- compared to 94.92% in)

PiS: 35.92% (-0.21%)
KO: 30.22% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.49% (+0.05%)
Kon: 7.16% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

if you're wondering why 1.25% caused a big 0.2% drop for PiS and 0.2% rise for KO, that was mostly Warsaw, which dropped another 10% in that vote dump.

Still 20% left to go there.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 1 (Legnica) fully reported
PiS - 34.80% (-7.60) 174,643
KO - 33.78% (+8.76) 169,540
Third Way - 10.75% (+3.58) 53,958
Left - 9.51% (-6.92) 47,715
Konfederacja - 6.33% (+0.48) 31,770

Seats
PiS - 5 (-1)
KO - 5 (+2)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1 (-1)
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/1

[Duke of York]

96.24% reporting (+/- compared to 94.92% in)

PiS: 35.92% (-0.21%)
KO: 30.22% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.49% (+0.05%)
Kon: 7.16% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

if you're wondering why 1.25% caused a big 0.2% drop for PiS and 0.2% rise for KO, that was mostly Warsaw, which dropped another 10% in that vote dump.

Still 20% left to go there.

How many seats have they gained there?

[Duke of York]

Constituency No. 1, Legnica, fully reporting. 34.80% PiS, 33.78% PO, 10.75% TD, 9.51% Lewica, 6.33% Konf. Topline in 2019 was 42-25, so this is a major lurch from PiS to PO.

Opposition also flipped all 3 Senate seats here (constituencies 1-3).

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

96.24% reporting (+/- compared to 94.92% in)

PiS: 35.92% (-0.21%)
KO: 30.22% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.49% (+0.05%)
Kon: 7.16% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

if you're wondering why 1.25% caused a big 0.2% drop for PiS and 0.2% rise for KO, that was mostly Warsaw, which dropped another 10% in that vote dump.

Still 20% left to go there.

How many seats have they gained there?

No idea. I haven't been calculating seats, just keeping note of nationwide %.

[M0096]

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

The only PiS Senator from Lower Silesia will be Aleksander Szwed from 5th constituency, who won by only 508 votes.
Opposition is going to net gain low teens of Senate seats.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

96.24% reporting (+/- compared to 94.92% in)

PiS: 35.92% (-0.21%)
KO: 30.22% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.49% (+0.05%)
Kon: 7.16% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

if you're wondering why 1.25% caused a big 0.2% drop for PiS and 0.2% rise for KO, that was mostly Warsaw, which dropped another 10% in that vote dump.

Still 20% left to go there.

Actually it was about 18%, not 10%. It's 10% of the constituency which includes overseas. 12% is left in Warsaw itself.

[Duke of York]

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

The only PiS Senator from Lower Silesia will be Aleksander Szwed from 5th constituency, who won by only 508 votes.
Opposition is going to net gain low teens of Senate seats.

Wow thats impressive! Doesn't the Senate not have much power though?

[Logical]

Consituency no. 33 (Kielce) fully reported
PiS - 47.07% (-8.11) 310,266
KO - 20.93% (+4.28) 137,941
Third Way - 13.80% (+3.92) 90,975
Left - 6.83% (-3.12) 45,048
Konfederacja - 6.55% (+0.60) 43,197

Seats
PiS - 8 (-2)
KO - 4 (+1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/33

[M0096]

Wow thats impressive! Doesn't the Senate not have much power though?

Senate veto could be overridden by simple majority of votes in Sejm, so Senate could only slow down legislation.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Doing another one now since I'll be gone for a little bit:


97.01% reporting (+/- compared to 96.24% in)

PiS: 35.90% (-0.02%)
KO: 30.23% (+0.01%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.50% (+0.01%)
Kon: 7.16% (+/- 0.00%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

[Epaminondas]

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

The only PiS Senator from Lower Silesia will be Aleksander Szwed from 5th constituency, who won by only 508 votes.
Opposition is going to net gain low teens of Senate seats.

Szwed was saved by smaller parties splintering coalition votes, one of the few seats of failed consolidation.

PO will probably have an absolute majority in the Senate tomorrow and PiS around 35, a complete reversal from 2015.

[Oryxslayer]

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

The only PiS Senator from Lower Silesia will be Aleksander Szwed from 5th constituency, who won by only 508 votes.
Opposition is going to net gain low teens of Senate seats.

I think its close to 65-35 right now based on changes since I last went through every seat, though thats just a estimate. Though, as noted, the senate is mostly just there to act like the UK Lords.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 12 (Chrzanów) fully reported
PiS - 42.86% (-10.62) 156,308
KO - 24.24% (+1.20) 88,408
Third Way - 14.97% (+7.07) 54,585
Konfederacja - 7.88% (+0.82) 28,754
Left - 6.04% (-2.47) 22,036


Seats
PiS - 5 (-1)
KO - 2  
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Konfederacja - 0
Left - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/12

[Logical]

Consituency no. 34 (Elbląg) fully reported
PiS - 35.20% (-5.66) 105,373
KO - 31.87% (+3.44) 95,410
Third Way - 15.40% (+4.51) 46,101
Left - 8.11% (-3.53) 24,269
Konfederacja - 6.54% (+0.88) 19,590

Seats
PiS - 4
KO - 3 (+1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 0 (-1)
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/34

[Logical]

Consituency no. 25 (Gdańsk) fully reported
KO - 41.70% (+0.39) 257,009
PiS - 25.20% (-6.90) 155,318
Third Way - 14.70% (+8.80) 90,599
Left - 9.41% (-4.06) 57,967
Konfederacja - 6.23% (-0.98) 38,406


Seats
KO - 6
PiS - 3 (-1)
Third Way - 2 (+2)
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 0 (-1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/25

Fixed Kon change