International COVID-19 Megathread

[parochial boy]

Oh we’ve been importing this delightful new tradition too. In smaller numbers thankfully, and the same assortment of crackpots, conspiracy theory nutcases, and racists whose idea of  « patriotism » appears to be trying to import American politics. Unsurprisingly, protests only happening in German Switzerland. And have been very badly received in the much harder hit French and Italian regions.

Although I probably wouldn’t worry too much about small outdoor gatherings. Even back in March I was seeing groups of people sunbathing or playing football in the parks, or swimming in the river- and cases have dropped dramatically here too. If those sorts of situations are causing some transmission, it’s unlikely it’ll be enough to lose control of like before.

[Middle-aged Europe]

All completely illegally, of course, but it's not as if the police gives a crap about enforcement anymore.

Well, trying to disperse a couple of thousands of protesters by force could turn ugly very quickly... and it wouldn't really help invalidating the "oppresive police state" argument of the protesters either. So the question is if this is the kind of pictures the government wants in the evening news.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest predictions for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 126,500

UK still looking at the larger numbers than initially thought because of a lower rate of decline. Need to keep an eye on where things go over the next week.


France



France 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 79,200

France on it's way down.


Germany



Germany 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,500

Germany on the path to 10% of maximum Active Cases in the next week.


Spain



Spain 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 30,000

Spain continues to decline at a slower rate.


Italy



Italy 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 77,000

Italy starting to report more recoveries to catch up.


USA



USA 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 596,000

USA has continued to decrease in number of Active Cases, albeit in a lump manner. 10% of the maximum Active Cases (494,000) predicted to occur around Jun 10.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[CumbrianLefty]

Most people in this country asking this morning "WTF is the government doing??".

[Silent Hunter]

They do need to make some stuff clearer, that's for sure. They also need to remind business that the Control of Substances Hazard to Health Regulations cover this virus as it is a "biological agent".

[Silent Hunter]

Germany's Robert Koch Institute is still seeing a 1.13 R rate, but is noting that is on a pretty low base and needs more data.

Hamburg interestingly reported zero new cases on Saturday and a number of other states were in single digits.

[afleitch]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/south-korea-struggles-to-contain-new-outbreak-amid-anti-lgbt-backlash

'Authorities in South Korea are struggling to contain a new coronavirus outbreak linked to the capital’s nightclub district as a backlash against the country’s gay community increases, prompting fears LGBT people will fail to get tested out of fear of being outed.'

'After Kookmin Ilbo, a local media outlet with links to an evangelical church, reported that businesses visited by an infected man over the long weekend were gay clubs, many other South Korean media followed suit, revealing not only the identity of clientele but also some of their ages and the names of their workplaces.'

[T'Chenka]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/south-korea-struggles-to-contain-new-outbreak-amid-anti-lgbt-backlash

'Authorities in South Korea are struggling to contain a new coronavirus outbreak linked to the capital’s nightclub district as a backlash against the country’s gay community increases, prompting fears LGBT people will fail to get tested out of fear of being outed.'

'After Kookmin Ilbo, a local media outlet with links to an evangelical church, reported that businesses visited by an infected man over the long weekend were gay clubs, many other South Korean media followed suit, revealing not only the identity of clientele but also some of their ages and the names of their workplaces.'

Oooh, this is pretty spicy.

[Mike88]

Now, this is what you a call a mask with high protection:

https://twitter.com/odedonafrida/status/1259860215761166338

If the video doesn't play, click on the tweet.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Robert Koch Institute has explained that the slightly increased R factor of 1.x in Germany is a result of the daily new infections having reached a plateau. To avoid panic reactions over R factor fluctuations in the future they have announced plans to release statistically adjusted weekly R factor numbers which wouldn't fluctuate that strongly. (And using that adjusted measurement retroactively the R factor wasn't actually above 1 during last week.)

[Silent Hunter]

Latest German R estimate is down to 1.07.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany also had a string of major outbreaks in slaughterhouses recently which apparently serve now as the main sources of new infections.

[parochial boy]

Big news - since the beginning, basically everyone in the French speaking world has been calling it "le Covid-19". Today, in their eternal wisdom, the académie française have decreed that it is actually "la Covid-19". Because it's "une" maladie apparently (but it's also "un" virus, and "un" coronavirus).

Nice to see the senile old fogies have once again decided that actually it's not them, it's the French, who are wrong.

[FrancoAgo]

Big news - since the beginning, basically everyone in the French speaking world has been calling it "le Covid-19". Today, in their eternal wisdom, the académie française have decreed that it is actually "la Covid-19". Because it's "une" maladie apparently (but it's also "un" virus, and "un" coronavirus).

Nice to see the senile old fogies have once again decided that actually it's not them, it's the French, who are wrong.

actually the Covid-19 is une maladie, is not un virus, Corona Virus Disease of 2019

[parochial boy]

Big news - since the beginning, basically everyone in the French speaking world has been calling it "le Covid-19". Today, in their eternal wisdom, the académie française have decreed that it is actually "la Covid-19". Because it's "une" maladie apparently (but it's also "un" virus, and "un" coronavirus).

Nice to see the senile old fogies have once again decided that actually it's not them, it's the French, who are wrong.

actually the Covid-19 is une maladie, is not un virus, Corona Virus Disease of 2019

But the word maladie doesn’t feature in the word « covid », it’s an anglicisme. Same as how we say « le weekend » even though it’s « la fin » of « la semaine ». 

They're just inventing rules off the cuff because of their own weird hang-ups - and then being pedantic in a way that doesn’t actually reflect the language as it is actually spoken

[Silent Hunter]

The Academy are being somewhat consistent, as Covid-19 is a "maladie"...

The disease is called Covid-19, the virus is called SARS-CoV-2 and the latter is one of the coronavirus family.

[CumbrianLefty]

Now being estimated that the "real" UK virus death toll may have gone over 60k.

[urutzizu]

The fact that the UK population continues to give best marks to Boris despite that is all the more remarkable.

Opinion Poll from Odoxa-Dentsu for LeFigaro on attitudes in Europe:

"Is the Government is up to the task" (Yes/No) in %:

UK: 63/35
Germany: 60/38
Italy: 50/49
Fransa: 34/66
Spain: 32/67

Did your Government: (Yes in %)
(1) take Measures that were in accordance with the Gravity of the situation?
(2) take the right steps at the right time? (44%?!?)
(3) tell the people the truth?
(4) properly equip hospitals/medical staff?
(5) show they knew where they were going?
(6) provide clarity?



I suppose despite the Death Toll the UK did avoid the kind of footage of doctors having to triage ventilators and overcrowded hospitals, that would create the perception of a failure of the state, even as a unnoticed epidemic took place in care homes. The UK also has a different media environment to other European Countries. But I still think Labour needs to ask themselves why their message is seemingly not cutting through, despite the clear failings of the Government.

[Silent Hunter]

Labour have major reputational issues these days.

[President Johnson]

Germany's reproduction rate is back under 1, but Robert Koch Institute estimates it will stay around 1 for months to come. The number of ongoing cases has dropped to 18,000 (reported). I remember when it was over 70,000 some weeks ago. Over 147,000 patients have receovered, 7,700+ died.

[Silent Hunter]

At a low base like that, R gets less reliable.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour have major reputational issues these days.

The UK polling was taken a week or more ago, certainly before the recent chaotic developments.

YouGov's latest polling has Johnson's net approval rating edging below Starmer's.

[urutzizu]

Labour have major reputational issues these days.

The UK polling was taken a week or more ago, certainly before the recent chaotic developments.

YouGov's latest polling has Johnson's net approval rating edging below Starmer's.

Yes, but it still has Boris at a net +22 % (57/35), while Starmer is at 40/17. That is not the kind of numbers that the Leader of the Government with arguably the worst response in Western Europe should be having (especially if one considers his pre-pandemic approval ratings). This not about me trying to construct some sort of "Corbyn would be 20 points ahead right now" argument . Rather I think there is a larger point to be had here about British People perhaps having different reactions to leadership and authority in times of crisis, than their Continental Counterparts.

[CumbrianLefty]

Until recently, most people undoubtedly thought the government were making at least a decent fist of things after a bad start. The sympathy factor after Johnson's brush with death will have surely bolstered his personal ratings as well. I would be hesitant about making broader generalisations about "national characteristics" on the back of polling figures at present tbh.

(plus there are some countries - Denmark and Ireland to name just two - where the public's approval ratings of their governments during this crisis have actually outstripped the UK)

[parochial boy]

Switzerland's borders with Austria, France and Germany will in theory be opening again on the 15th of June. Looks like a week in July sitting on a rainy beach in Brittany is back on!