Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[DaleCooper]

I have very little interest in any one side winning, as I'm just observer, but it strikes me as very bizarre to declare quasi-victory at 10:30 before any vote counts are revealed. Why set yourself up for such potential failure?

who declared victory?

Many, many people on both sides are stopping one step short of declaring victory, but they might as well be.

are you referring to people in this thread or the campaign operatives?

Both

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bruh... If this is true... I wish
https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/1455555600990056452?s=20

Source: Someones A**

Twitter bio:

Conservative Christian. Love @BeccaRyun. Dad of 4. Jayhawk. CEO @AM_National, @VoterGravity
. @theamgreatness Senior Fellow.

I think that's someone we could call a...non-swing voter.

[roxas11]

It feels like there's a bandwagon effect on saying Youngkin is favored.

Republican-leaning pollsters release a disproportionate of the polls in the final two weeks, average starts to favor Youngkin, Crystal Ball moves to Lean R because they didn't want to do a tossup, other prediction groups follow suit. Beltway types wet themselves at the prospect of a truly competitive race in their backyard and entertain every inkling of Dems being in disarray in a Biden +10 state.
Youngkin would need to overperform with usually straight ticket Democrats even with poor minority turnout and good R-leaning election day turnout. I just don't see it in the numbers or feel it in my gut. It'll be closer then 2017 but not under <2%.

Well one thing is clear to me so far

That fox news poll showing a 8 point win for Glenn Youngkin probably isn't happening and if anything, I'm kind of surprised that the Republican turnout so far has not been as high as I was expecting it to be.

[wbrocks67]

Sounds like a turnout surge in Republican areas.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455557554856202245

Again, he could be right, he could be wrong. But his prognostications were a mess on election day 2017.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/LoudounVote/status/1455542954836234251

[Brittain33]

It feels like there's a bandwagon effect on saying Youngkin is favored.

Republican-leaning pollsters release a disproportionate of the polls in the final two weeks, average starts to favor Youngkin, Crystal Ball moves to Lean R because they didn't want to do a tossup, other prediction groups follow suit. Beltway types wet themselves at the prospect of a truly competitive race in their backyard and entertain every inkling of Dems being in disarray in a Biden +10 state.
Youngkin would need to overperform with usually straight ticket Democrats even with poor minority turnout and good R-leaning election day turnout. I just don't see it in the numbers or feel it in my gut. It'll be closer then 2017 but not under <2%.

Well one thing is clear to me so far

That fox news poll showing a 8 point win for Glenn Youngkin probably isn't happening and if anything, I'm kind of surprised that the Republican turnout so far has not been as high as I was expecting it to be.

It’s a possible result if a number of Biden voters switched/reverted to R. I’m not saying I believe it will happen, but it’s what I’m steeling myself for.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sounds like a turnout surge in Republican areas.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455557554856202245

Again, he could be right, he could be wrong. But his prognostications were a mess on election day 2017.

What precisely did he predict?

[Xing]

Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.

[Non Swing Voter]

I would really like to see a turnout report from some of the bigger rural counties. 

[wbrocks67]

Bruh... If this is true... I wish
https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/1455555600990056452?s=20

This seems unlikely as well-

Early modeled vote was 603K D, 352K R, 183K I.

Even if you gave Youngkin a +20% lead on those 183K Is, assuming both Ds and Rs mainly vote their party, you still get a +20% lead for Ds (676K vs. 462K out of 1.14M)

[BigSerg]

Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.

*How to define NSV in one sentence

[wbrocks67]

Sounds like a turnout surge in Republican areas.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455557554856202245

Again, he could be right, he could be wrong. But his prognostications were a mess on election day 2017.

What precisely did he predict?

What I remember from 2017 was that he was saying turnout was looking great for Ds in the morning, and then by midday he was dooming say turnout was terrible for Ds. Then by afternoon it was magically better for Ds. It was all over the place.

[Chips]

Hmm. Seems like early voting and voting reports coming in so far might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

[wbrocks67]

I would really like to see a turnout report from some of the bigger rural counties. 

yeah, there's been virtually no anecdotal turnout reports from any of the SW, rural or Trumpy counties

[soundchaser]

Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.

*How to define NSV in one sentence

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like a lot of mail in ballots have trickled in per VPAP's update numbers.  Now only 90,000 outstanding/unaccounted for.  Number was 108,000 yesterday.  These 90,000 could theoretically trickle in today and over the next 3 days.  They will skew very heavily Dem so it's important to keep an eye on.

Total early turnout now over 1,161,000.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory.

Interesting.  You are more fair minded than most on this forum, why do you think it's pointing that way?

[Non Swing Voter]

Sounds like a turnout surge in Republican areas.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455557554856202245

Again, he could be right, he could be wrong. But his prognostications were a mess on election day 2017.

What precisely did he predict?

What I remember from 2017 was that he was saying turnout was looking great for Ds in the morning, and then by midday he was dooming say turnout was terrible for Ds. Then by afternoon it was magically better for Ds. It was all over the place.

What's his Atlas moniker?

[BigSerg]

Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.

*How to define NSV in one sentence

Can you quote me? Exactly where have I discredited information or proclaimed Youngkin's victory?

[Chips]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory.

Interesting.  You are more fair minded than most on this forum, why do you think it's pointing that way?

Turnout seems to be going steadily for McAuliffe in NOVA. Same with the downstate areas but I don't know if I can say the turnout reports we're getting so far indicate a Youngkin victory. A Youngkin victory is certainly possible, but I think the race is leaning slightly for McAuliffe based on turnout reports so far but I also concede I could very well be wrong.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Limoliberal posting that guy is giving me 2017 flashbacks

[Sir Mohamed]

Limoliberal posting that guy is giving me 2017 flashbacks

Aw, I miss King Lear. LOL.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sounds like a turnout surge in Republican areas.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455557554856202245

Again, he could be right, he could be wrong. But his prognostications were a mess on election day 2017.

What precisely did he predict?

What I remember from 2017 was that he was saying turnout was looking great for Ds in the morning, and then by midday he was dooming say turnout was terrible for Ds. Then by afternoon it was magically better for Ds. It was all over the place.

Yeah, that's, as you said, a mess.

[Chips]

I think I'm going to finalize my prediction as a McAuliffe+2. I could be right on the money or off by several points in either direction. I could be off by several points in either direction but that's okay.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/wetzler_jessica/status/1455551950766886917