Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 23, 2024, 03:24:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration 		« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 132 133 134 135 136 [137] 138 139 140 141 142 ... 284
Author Topic: Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration  (Read 348827 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3400 on: November 02, 2021, 10:27:04 AM »
Quote from: Dougie Jones on November 02, 2021, 10:26:31 AM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 10:24:24 AM
Quote from: Dougie Jones on November 02, 2021, 10:23:30 AM
I have very little interest in any one side winning, as I'm just observer, but it strikes me as very bizarre to declare quasi-victory at 10:30 before any vote counts are revealed. Why set yourself up for such potential failure?

who declared victory?

Many, many people on both sides are stopping one step short of declaring victory, but they might as well be.

are you referring to people in this thread or the campaign operatives?
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,000


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3401 on: November 02, 2021, 10:28:01 AM »
This is a bloodbath.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3402 on: November 02, 2021, 10:30:03 AM »


This seems low, though it's outdated.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,676


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3403 on: November 02, 2021, 10:30:27 AM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2021, 10:28:01 AM
This is a bloodbath.


We already talked about this on the last page. This guy didn't include the 2000+ VBM that were counted (or that are still coming)
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,676


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3404 on: November 02, 2021, 10:30:53 AM »
What was Falls Church turnout in 2017 and 2020?
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3405 on: November 02, 2021, 10:32:25 AM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2021, 10:28:01 AM
This is a bloodbath.


Usually there is a flood of votes before work (2017 I imagine was like this) then it calms down til after work hours.  The pace appears different this year with everyone working from home.  It's more just steady all day.  That's what I'm taking from the updates from Falls Church which are occurring more often.
Logged
Wormless Gourd
cringenat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3406 on: November 02, 2021, 10:32:32 AM »
It feels like there's a bandwagon effect on saying Youngkin is favored.

Republican-leaning pollsters release a disproportionate of the polls in the final two weeks, average starts to favor Youngkin, Crystal Ball moves to Lean R because they didn't want to do a tossup, other prediction groups follow suit. Beltway types wet themselves at the prospect of a truly competitive race in their backyard and entertain every inkling of Dems being in disarray in a Biden +10 state.
Youngkin would need to overperform with usually straight ticket Democrats even with poor minority turnout and good R-leaning election day turnout. I just don't see it in the numbers or feel it in my gut. It'll be closer then 2017 but not under <2%.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3407 on: November 02, 2021, 10:33:43 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 02, 2021, 10:30:53 AM
What was Falls Church turnout in 2017 and 2020?

Falls Church was 65% turnout in 2017.

Keep in mind the population has grown since.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,028


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3408 on: November 02, 2021, 10:34:09 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 02, 2021, 10:30:53 AM
What was Falls Church turnout in 2017 and 2020?

Ridiculously high in 2020 starting with EV. It’s like if Leslie Knope were a city.
Logged
BigSerg
7sergi9
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,264


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3409 on: November 02, 2021, 10:34:46 AM »
Ugh...
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,028


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3410 on: November 02, 2021, 10:34:56 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 10:26:12 AM
why the hell was my Election Day turnout report thread deleted? 

It wasn’t deleted. It was merged into this thread, all posts were saved. It’s best to have one megathread rather than multiple parallel discussions.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3411 on: November 02, 2021, 10:36:02 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 02, 2021, 10:24:42 AM
Quote from: Dougie Jones on November 02, 2021, 10:23:30 AM
I have very little interest in any one side winning, as I'm just observer, but it strikes me as very bizarre to declare quasi-victory at 10:30 before any vote counts are revealed. Why set yourself up for such potential failure?

Hugh Hewitt has been a hot mess for years now, so not too surprising there
Hugh Hewitt hackishly predicting Youngkin winning before voting has even ended is par for course.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3412 on: November 02, 2021, 10:37:53 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 02, 2021, 10:34:56 AM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 10:26:12 AM
why the hell was my Election Day turnout report thread deleted? 

It wasn’t deleted. It was merged into this thread, all posts were saved. It’s best to have one megathread rather than multiple parallel discussions.
You're right. Thank you.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3413 on: November 02, 2021, 10:38:15 AM »
Sounds like a turnout surge in Republican areas.
Logged
BigSerg
7sergi9
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,264


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3414 on: November 02, 2021, 10:38:29 AM »
Bruh... If this is true... I wish
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3415 on: November 02, 2021, 10:38:54 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 10:32:25 AM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2021, 10:28:01 AM
This is a bloodbath.


Usually there is a flood of votes before work (2017 I imagine was like this) then it calms down til after work hours.  The pace appears different this year with everyone working from home.  It's more just steady all day.  That's what I'm taking from the updates from Falls Church which are occurring more often.

What does bloodbath mean?
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3416 on: November 02, 2021, 10:39:07 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2021, 10:38:15 AM
Sounds like a turnout surge in Republican areas.



Sounds like mostly a wash to me compared to an election where Dems won by almost 10.  GOP better hope they are making a lot of converts.  
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,585


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3417 on: November 02, 2021, 10:40:26 AM »
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 10:38:29 AM
Bruh... If this is true... I wish


Where are the numbers coming from on this?
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,937
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3418 on: November 02, 2021, 10:41:58 AM »
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 10:38:29 AM
Bruh... If this is true... I wish

Source: Someones A**
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3419 on: November 02, 2021, 10:42:12 AM »
Quote from: Person Man on November 02, 2021, 10:38:54 AM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 10:32:25 AM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2021, 10:28:01 AM
This is a bloodbath.


Usually there is a flood of votes before work (2017 I imagine was like this) then it calms down til after work hours.  The pace appears different this year with everyone working from home.  It's more just steady all day.  That's what I'm taking from the updates from Falls Church which are occurring more often.

What does bloodbath mean?
A devastating result, essentially.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3420 on: November 02, 2021, 10:42:33 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on November 02, 2021, 10:40:26 AM
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 10:38:29 AM
Bruh... If this is true... I wish


Where are the numbers coming from on this?

Probably the Atlas user who posted it. 
Logged
Duke of York
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,062


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3421 on: November 02, 2021, 10:43:56 AM »
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 10:38:29 AM
Bruh... If this is true... I wish


What is their source for this?
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3422 on: November 02, 2021, 10:44:09 AM »
Quote from: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on November 02, 2021, 10:41:58 AM
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 10:38:29 AM
Bruh... If this is true... I wish

Source: Someones A**

Still a better source than Wasserman.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3423 on: November 02, 2021, 10:44:14 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on November 02, 2021, 10:40:26 AM
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 10:38:29 AM
Bruh... If this is true... I wish


Where are the numbers coming from on this?
People are forgetting that the dynamics of early voting are not necessarily going to be 2020-like ad infinitum.

Historically early votes were much less lopsided. 2020 will probably be an aberration driven by Trump sowing doubt in vote-by-mail and regular early voting.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,676


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3424 on: November 02, 2021, 10:46:18 AM »
Quote from: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on November 02, 2021, 10:41:58 AM
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 10:38:29 AM
Bruh... If this is true... I wish

Source: Someones A**

Twitter bio:

Conservative Christian. Love @BeccaRyun. Dad of 4. Jayhawk. CEO @AM_National, @VoterGravity
. @theamgreatness Senior Fellow.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 132 133 134 135 136 [137] 138 139 140 141 142 ... 284  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.097 seconds with 12 queries.