Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Realistic goals for each party in upcoming election

LDP: Along with pro-LDP independents and retroactive LDP candidates get to 261 for stable majority
KP: Win all 9 district seat and increase PR seats: Above 30 seats
CDP: Above 130 seats
DPP: Maintain 5 district seats plus win PR seats beyond (東海)Tokai: 7 seats or above
SDP: win a PR seat in addition to its 1 district seat: 2 seats
RS: Win PR seats outside Tokyo: 2 seats or above
JCP: Above 15 seats
JRP: Above 22 seats

For LDP and CDP

LDP
275+      Major victory
261-274  Victory
246-260  Draw
233-245  Setback
216-232  Major defeat
215-       Catastrophe

CDP
150+      Major victory
130-149  Victory
120-129  Draw
110-119  Defeat
100-109  Major defeat
99-         Catastrophe, need to rethink the entire value proposition of CDP

LDP will end up at the top of the Daw territory.  Kishida lives to fight another day.  CDP could very likely fall below 100 seats.  This means it is a catastrophe and they have to rethink the entire value proposition of CDP including the JCP alliance.

[jaichind]

Have there been any boundary changes since 2017?

No.
(First time this has been true since 2012)

Right. And when are the block seats determined?

No change from 2017

[jaichind]

If CDP falls below 100 seats which now looks likely it will be the 4th election in a row where the largest opposition party failed to cross 100 seats.  This has been the case in 2012 2014 and 2017.  Before 2012 only in 1969 (KP surge took seats from JSP) 1986 (LDP landslide) and 1993 (new LDP splinter split the opposition seats) did this take place.  Ironically LDP lost power in 1993 despite no opposition party winning over 100 seats due to a grand anti-LDP alliance post-election.

[jaichind]

http://tokuou.s500.xrea.com/cgi/senkyo/2021/shuuinsen.cgi?mode=ichiran

This is a link to a uselectionatlas like prediction site.  The average prediction was for LDP to win 230 seats. The LDP massively outperformed exit polls and pre-election predictions

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

http://tokuou.s500.xrea.com/cgi/senkyo/2021/shuuinsen.cgi?mode=ichiran

This is a link to a uselectionatlas like prediction site.  The average prediction was for LDP to win 230 seats. The LDP massively outperformed exit polls and pre-election predictions

Thanks for the link.
Interesting stuff.

[jaichind]

Between NHK and Asahi 宮城(Miyagi) 1st is the only seat left uncalled.  I think it will go CDP.

All seats are called. Symbolic of the LDP surge 宮城(Miyagi) 1st went to LDP.  So district seats are distributed

LDP                187
pro-LDP Ind.      6 (2 already retrospectively nominiated)
KP                     9
DPP                   6
pro-DPP Ind.      4
JRP                  16
CDP                 57
pro-CDP ind       2
SDP                   1
JCP                    1

[jaichind]

http://tokuou.s500.xrea.com/cgi/senkyo/2021/shuuinsen.cgi?mode=ichiran

This is a link to a uselectionatlas like prediction site.  The average prediction was for LDP to win 230 seats. The LDP massively outperformed exit polls and pre-election predictions

Thanks for the link.
Interesting stuff.

They did a good job of hiding the different predictions 3 weeks before the election so you cannot do the "wisdom of crowds" algorithm and predict the median guess.  Of course, if you did that you would be way off.

If you look at the list of particiants you see that I am one of them.

[jaichind]

JRP totally outperformed on the PR slate in Tokyo.  They overtook KP to be the 3rd largest party.  It was expected that after LDP CDP, JCP might challenge KP for third place although JRP will be close behind KP and JCP.  JRP surged past both JCP and KP to come in third. 

[jaichind]

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.   

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          187            70          257       
KP               9            20            29           
JRP            16            21            37         
DPP             6              3             9           
CDP           57            36            93         
RS              0              1              1         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              9            10           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            160         449
                         (16 uncalled)     

Out of the 16 uncalled seats, I expect them to be evenly distributed between LDP CDP KP JCP and JRP.  RS might win another seat as well.

[Logical]

Outside Kansai, LDP is matching or exceeding Koizumi 05 levels in PR vote. Completely unexpected.

[jaichind]

JRP surge in 兵庫(Hyōgo) now makes turns that prefecture from a LDP domination prefecture to a 3 pole system of LDP-KP vs CDP vs JRP.  JRP surge here mostly came at the expense of LDP.  The JRP surge won them 6th district but also helped CDP win the 1st district which CDP was favored to win but not in an LDP outperforming expectations election.

[jaichind]

Outside Kansai, LDP is matching or exceeding Koizumi 05 levels in PR vote. Completely unexpected.

I think this is the 2017 HP PR vote coming back to stop JCP.  Part of it might also be KP voters voting LDP as well.  I think in some bizarre logic to them, voting LDP PR is also to help to stop JCP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Outside Kansai, LDP is matching or exceeding Koizumi 05 levels in PR vote. Completely unexpected.

Has the LDP ever done this well in the PR blocks?

[jaichind]

Outside Kansai, LDP is matching or exceeding Koizumi 05 levels in PR vote. Completely unexpected.

Has the LDP ever done this well in the PR blocks?

Only in Upper House seats.  The only time LDP did this well in Lower House elections is, as mentioned, in the 2005 Koizumi landslide.  In the Upper House elections, the dynamics are different.  You can vote for a LDP candidate name on the PR slate which would count toward the LDP PR vote.  Given the LDP strength in political talent and politicians with a personal vote LDP always does better in Upper House PR vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Outside Kansai, LDP is matching or exceeding Koizumi 05 levels in PR vote. Completely unexpected.

Has the LDP ever done this well in the PR blocks?

Only in Upper House seats.  The only time LDP did this well in Lower House elections is, as mentioned, in the 2005 Koizumi landslide.  In the Upper House elections, the dynamics are different.  You can vote for a LDP candidate name on the PR slate which would count toward the LDP PR vote.  Given the LDP strength in political talent and politicians with a personal vote LDP always does better in Upper House PR vote.

If you omitted the results from Kansai, is it likely that the LDP would have done even better than in 2005?

[jaichind]

More PR seats are called.

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.   

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          187            71          258       
KP               9            21            30           
JRP            16            22            38         
DPP             6              4           10         
CDP           57            36            93         
RS              0              1              1         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              9            10           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            164         453
                         (12 seats uncalled)

JRP KP neck to neck for the third largest party on PR bloc.  I suspect KP should at least tie JRP in the end.  DPP outperformed.  Total bomb for CDP and JCP.

[jaichind]

More PR seats are called.

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.   

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          187            71          258       
KP               9            23            32           
JRP            16            24            40         
DPP             6              4           10         
CDP           57            38            95         
RS              0              1              1         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              9            10           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            170         459
                         (6 seats uncalled)

Wow. It seems JRP is now the favorite to overtake KP as the third-largest party on the PR slate.

[jaichind]

Looks like RS DPP overperformed on the PR slate cutting into the CDP margin and creating a bunch of wasted votes in various zones.

[jaichind]

Not all the votes are in but I did a prelim PR vote count.  It is actually not that massive for LDP-KP but eyepopping for JRP.

LDP          34.9% (somewhat more than expected)
KP            12.5% (a bit less than expected)
PNHK          1.4%
JRP           14.0% !!!
DPP            4.5% (very respectable and a good deal more than expected)
CDP          19.7% (disaster)
RS              3.9% (very respectable and a good deal more than expected)
SDP            1.4% (a bit more than expected)
JCP             7.3% (a good deal worse than expected)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kiyomi Tsujimoto just got Banri-ed.

[Mike88]

Any data regarding the final turnout numbers?

[jaichind]

More PR seats are called.

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.   

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          187            71          258       
KP               9            23            32           
JRP            16            25            41         
DPP             6              4           10         
CDP           57            39            96         
RS              0              2              2         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              9            10           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            173         452
                         (3 seats uncalled)

Of the last 3 seats JPR is likely to win 1-2 of them, JCP 0-1 of them KP 0-1 of then and DPP 0-1 of them.  CDP well below 100 seats at 96.

[jaichind]

Any data regarding the final turnout numbers?

I think it ended up at around 56%

[Mike88]

Tokyo's PR vote share:

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1454892474598453254

[jaichind]

 My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.   

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          187            72          259       
KP               9            23            32           
JRP            16            25            41         
DPP             6              5           11         
CDP           57            39            96         
RS              0              2              2         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              9            10           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            175         454

Only 1 seat left to be called in Kinki PR zone.  It is between JRP and RS.   RS winning a seat in Kinki would be symbolic of its overperformance on the PR slate if that were to come to pass.