Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Hindsight was 2020]

As said a million other times please don’t compare this EV to a presidential year

[RI]

As said a million other times please don’t compare this EV to a presidential year

2016 is more relevant than 2014. Turnout is much closer to 2016 than 2014; you're asking us to compare the highest turnout midterm in living memory to one of the lowest! Not to mention 2016 was a small-scale realignment. Everything after Trump is different than before Trump.

[SCNCmod]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Somewhat interestingly in the 2 StPetePolls that includes "already voted"
The St Pete Poll taken Oct 30-31
"Already voted"
Nelson: 53%,
Scott: 45%  

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 45%
Scott: 50%

The St Pete Poll taken Nov 1-2
"Already voted"
Nelson: 51%,
Scott: 47.5%  

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 43%
Scott: 51%

-----------
The Nov 1-2 also included Gov Numbers
The St Pete Poll taken Nov1-2
"Already voted"
Gillum: 52%,
DeSantis: 45%  

"Plan to vote"
Gillum: 43%
DeSantis: 48%


Not sure what to make of these numbers.... some seem a bit iffy.  But it at least gives some "Already Voted" numbers to compare to the Early voting totals to see how much potential crossover/ or Ind vote the Dems are getting.  (Each poll included a little over 2,000 respondents... and the poll was automated).


If anyone has the Day-by-Day EV numbers from Florida... It would be interesting to compared the totals as of October 31st and as of Nov 2nd ... to the "already voted" numbers in the polls.

[colincb]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

I

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Somewhat interestingly in the 2 StPetePolls that includes "already voted"
The St Pete Poll taken Oct 30-31
"Already voted"
Nelson: 53%,
Scott: 45%  

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 45%
Scott: 50%

The St Pete Poll taken Nov 1-2
"Already voted"
Nelson: 51%,
Scott: 47.5%  

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 43%
Scott: 51%

-----------
The Nov 1-2 also included Gov Numbers
The St Pete Poll taken Nov1-2
"Already voted"
Gillum: 52%,
DeSantis: 45%  

"Plan to vote"
Gillum: 43%
DeSantis: 48%


Not sure what to make of these numbers.... some seem a bit iffy.  But it at least gives some "Already Voted" numbers to compare to the Early voting totals to see how much potential crossover/ or Ind vote the Dems are getting.  (Each poll included a little over 2,000 respondents... and the poll was automated).

I'm late to the FL discussion, but assuming an 80% of 2016 total FL vote in 2018, what % of the electorate has voted and what % is left? What is the effect if it's a 75% or 85% of 2016 total FL vote in 2018?

[SCNCmod]

I'm late to the FL discussion, but assuming an 80% of 2016 total FL vote in 2018, what % of the electorate has voted and what % is left? What is the effect if it's a 75% or 85% of 2016 total FL vote in 2018?

It appears (via myflorida.com)...

Florida In Person Early Vote Total: 2.2 Million (Dems +10K)
Florida Vote by Mail Total: 2.25 Million (Repub's +70K)
...........................................................
Total Florida Votes so far: 4.25 Million
Rep:  1,845,000
Dem: 1,785,000
Ind: 800,000


2018 Florida Votes: 9 Million.  So assuming 80% of 2018, would indicate that 7.2 Million.... Meaning roughly 3 Million will either vote on Tuesday or Mail in their requested vote-by-mail ballot (1.2 Million VBM ballots yet to be returned).

So, Assuming 80% of 2016 vote:
60% Have already Voted
40% Still to Vote

[SCNCmod]

Florida Vote by Mail Stats (VBM totals are included in the Early Votes totals)

Requested... Dems & Repubs each requested roughly 1 Million Ballots, Ind's requested 500k ballots)

Total Returned....
Dem: 560K
Rep: 620K
Ind: 160K

Total Requested, but Yet to be Returned
Dem: 500K
Rep: 380K
Ind: 330K

*VBM Must be received by 7PM on Election day... so some of these will come in either via Mail or Dropped Off on Monday & Tuesday.

[oriass16]

In Nevada Based on 2016 ED turnout 44% as many as early votes will be casted on ED that is almost 276 K more the overall turnout will be like 628+276=904 K

Also based on 2016 ED out of 276 K ( 99 K will be Ds, 97 will be Rs & 80 K will be INs)

so the over all turnout based on party is projected to be  359 k Ds ( 40%) , 335 k  Rs (37% )& 209 k INs (23%)

if we assume Heller and Rosen each got 90% of their party votes and 10 % of the other and Heller got 10+ points with Independents based his recent average polls with independents.

So the projected outcome will be Heller 453 K and Rosen 451 K which is even, my opinion is Rosen will win with no more than 10K margin.

[musicblind]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Thank you for explaining in a respectful, non-condescending, manner. I appreciate that. It was an honest question.

[musicblind]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Somewhat interestingly in the 2 StPetePolls that includes "already voted"
The St Pete Poll taken Oct 30-31
"Already voted"
Nelson: 53%,
Scott: 45% 

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 45%
Scott: 50%

The St Pete Poll taken Nov 1-2
"Already voted"
Nelson: 51%,
Scott: 47.5% 

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 43%
Scott: 51%

-----------
The Nov 1-2 also included Gov Numbers
The St Pete Poll taken Nov1-2
"Already voted"
Gillum: 52%,
DeSantis: 45% 

"Plan to vote"
Gillum: 43%
DeSantis: 48%


Not sure what to make of these numbers.... some seem a bit iffy.  But it at least gives some "Already Voted" numbers to compare to the Early voting totals to see how much potential crossover/ or Ind vote the Dems are getting.  (Each poll included a little over 2,000 respondents... and the poll was automated).


If anyone has the Day-by-Day EV numbers from Florida... It would be interesting to compare the totals as of October 31st and as of Nov 2nd ... to the "already voted" numbers in the polls.

This is much more helpful, though I'm still not sure how to read these tea-leaves because I'm bad at math.

[musicblind]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Somewhat interestingly in the 2 StPetePolls that includes "already voted"
The St Pete Poll taken Oct 30-31
"Already voted"
Nelson: 53%,
Scott: 45% 

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 45%
Scott: 50%

The St Pete Poll taken Nov 1-2
"Already voted"
Nelson: 51%,
Scott: 47.5% 

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 43%
Scott: 51%

-----------
The Nov 1-2 also included Gov Numbers
The St Pete Poll taken Nov1-2
"Already voted"
Gillum: 52%,
DeSantis: 45% 

"Plan to vote"
Gillum: 43%
DeSantis: 48%


Not sure what to make of these numbers.... some seem a bit iffy.  But it at least gives some "Already Voted" numbers to compare to the Early voting totals to see how much potential crossover/ or Ind vote the Dems are getting.  (Each poll included a little over 2,000 respondents... and the poll was automated).


If anyone has the Day-by-Day EV numbers from Florida... It would be interesting to compare the totals as of October 31st and as of Nov 2nd ... to the "already voted" numbers in the polls.

This is much more helpful, though I'm still not sure how to read these tea-leaves because I'm bad at math.

[Tender Branson]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

2 things I don't get:

* why are there lines in the first place ? There should be enough early voting precincts and voters should be assigned to their precinct, so that there's a cap of 500-1000 voters per precinct. Which would mean there are no lines.

* why are these people waiting 5, 6 or 7 hours in a line to vote early ? If they could do so in 5 minutes on election day ? Or by postal ballot ?

At least in Georgia, early voting is not done at the local precinct.  My county (Forsyth) had early voting at the central elections office for the last two weeks, and at three satellite locations for last week only.  Any county voter can use any of these early locations.  This is a county with 230K people and 145K registered voters, and I think it's a bit more generous than the average county.  For Election Day, there are 16 precincts distributed across the county; on Election Day, you can only vote in your home precinct.

Stuff like this is always a recipe for disaster ...

For early voting, there should be the same precinct infrastructure in place as for election day.

Otherwise, you will always have these massive lines where people have to wait for hours and are likely to give up, go back home and not vote again. Which would be bad.

Election officials should be able to find enough (retired) poll workers to keep all the precincts open for a certain period (the week or so before election day).

It comes down to sheer cost. For the most part, Georgia tends to have one early vote location for every 50-75k people (my county, with over 100k, only has 1 location; this is why EV lines have consistently been 30 minutes to 1 hour for the past 2 elections).

In my county, Election Day voting costs about $30,000 to host. You need dozens of paid employees (who are not on any public payroll full-time, and many would not agree to do the work for 3 weeks straight when it only pays $10/hour and they already have full-time jobs) to staff precincts for 16 days.

Suddenly, you're talking about spending a half-million dollars for each of the potentially 4 elections every year (primary, primary runoff, general, general runoff). That's $2,000,000 or more per election cycle for a county with a general government budget of like $25,000,000. It's just too cost-exorbitant.

Early voting at centralized locations, in contrast, is much, much cheaper - in large part because you can use already-existing Board of Elections employees and have them run the show out of their workplaces.

Elections are costly, yes, but that's fine. Besides, parties and candidates should have to pay a certain amount to the SoS in each state to finance proper election infrastructure, instead of harassing voters with millions of silly political ads that cost millions more.

As an Australian looking in I am horrified that people are waiting literally hours to vote. Bloody insane. I've never waited more than 15 minutes in Australia whether it's early voting on election day voting.

Yeah, as an Austrian this is also hard to accept.

I'd be shocked if people had to wait longer than 1 or 2 minutes before they are able to cast their vote.

[Adam Griffin]

The truth is that - unlike in NV - nobody knows what is going to happen in FL, and reading EV data by party from FL is probably less useful than just about any other state*. My personal belief is that both Nelson and Gillum pull off victories (Nelson by more than Gillum), but there's no way to look at EV and make any reasonable conclusion one way or another in such a perpetually close state with volatile tendencies among NPAs.

*That doesn't have voter rolls filled with Dixiecrats or Rockefeller Republicans

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1059076040654495745

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If Souls to the Polls is strong today, Democrats could overtake the GOP

[ON Progressive]

The truth is that - unlike in NV - nobody knows what is going to happen in FL, and reading EV data by party from FL is probably less useful than just about any other state*. My personal belief is that both Nelson and Gillum pull off victories (Nelson by more than Gillum), but there's no way to look at EV and make any reasonable conclusion one way or another in such a perpetually close state with volatile tendencies among NPAs.

*That doesn't have voter rolls filled with Dixiecrats or Rockefeller Republicans

This. After 2016 and the state legislative specials in FL at his cycle, I really don’t care about Florida early voting numbers.

[Tintrlvr]

If Souls to the Polls is strong today, Democrats could overtake the GOP

I think the Dems will have at least around a 20-30k lead in early votes in Florida by Election Day. The remaining unreturned absentees are strongly D, and even if the return rate there is only 50%, Ds will tie the absentee vote. And the Ds are already around 10k ahead among in-person early votes and should based on history put up very strong numbers today (Sunday before Election Day is always the strongest D in-person early voting day in Florida because of Souls to the Polls), my guess is at least another 10k margin but possibly significantly more. Whether that is enough for Nelson and Gillum is not completely clear but assuming independents are much more favorable (or, rather, less unfavorable) to the Democrats than they were in 2016, which seems reasonable to expect, it should be.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston's Nevada predictions based on EV numbers: A bunch of 46's for Republicans.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday

Senate: Rosen (D) 48, Heller (R) 46

Governor: Sisolak (D) 48, Laxalt (R) 46

NV-03: Lee (D) 49, Tarkanian (R) 46

NV-04: Horsford (D) 52, Hardy (R) 46

[junior chįmp]

Early vote in Pinellas as of today (Dems take narrow lead):



In comparison with total early vote in 2014 when Scott win by 1%

[ON Progressive]

I'm kind of skeptical of the predictive value of Pinellas in midterm elections. It's good for predicting POTUS, but Crist/Sink in the last two gubernatorial GEs and Graham in the D primary won Pinellas quite comfortably but lost.

[Confused Democrat]

Just voted early (straight ticket D) in PBC. Saw lots of young people and African Americans.

[Brittain33]

I'm kind of skeptical of the predictive value of Pinellas in midterm elections. It's good for predicting POTUS, but Crist/Sink in the last two gubernatorial GEs and Graham in the D primary won Pinellas quite comfortably but lost.

As I think someone pointed out on this thread—apologies if I read it elsewhere—Crist, Sink, and Castor all have roots to Pinellas or Hillsborough County. This time, all 4 candidates are from elsewhere.

[junior chįmp]

I'm kind of skeptical of the predictive value of Pinellas in midterm elections. It's good for predicting POTUS, but Crist/Sink in the last two gubernatorial GEs and Graham in the D primary won Pinellas quite comfortably but lost.

As I think someone pointed out on this thread—apologies if I read it elsewhere—Crist, Sink, and Castor all have roots to Pinellas or Hillsborough County. This time, all 4 candidates are from elsewhere.

Yep. Charlie "always running" Crist was literally class president at St. Petersburg high school in the late 70s. Castor was president of the League of Women Voters's Tampa chapter. Sink was chair of united way in Hillsborough. They all had roots here.

[SCNCmod]

If Souls to the Polls is strong today, Democrats could overtake the GOP

Are all Counties in Florida allowing Early Voting to run through Nov 4th (Today)?  The state's website says:

voting periods for 2018 are:
General Election:  October 27 – November 3, 2018

In addition, each county Supervisor of Elections may offer optional days of early voting in addition to the mandatory early voting period.  Each Supervisor of Elections may choose from one or more of the following days for 2018:  October 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 and/or November 4, 2018

[Tintrlvr]

If Souls to the Polls is strong today, Democrats could overtake the GOP

Are all Counties in Florida allowing Early Voting to run through Nov 4th (Today)?  The state's website says:

voting periods for 2018 are:
General Election:  October 27 – November 3, 2018

In addition, each county Supervisor of Elections may offer optional days of early voting in addition to the mandatory early voting period.  Each Supervisor of Elections may choose from one or more of the following days for 2018:  October 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 and/or November 4, 2018

Most of the urban counties are, including all three counties in SE Florida, Orange County, Pinellas County, Hillsborough County, Leon County and Duval County, along with the mostly small counties in the panhandle affected by Michael. Most of the smaller and mid-size counties are not. Generally, the list is quite favorable to the Democrats because it's largely Republican-leaning counties that aren't voting today. (I didn't do the calculations, but I strongly suspect Clinton won the vote in 2016 in the counties that are open today by a sizeable margin since it excludes many of the big Republican counties like Lake, Sumter, Collier, Brevard, Sarasota, Pasco, St. Johns and Escambia, while only excluding one Clinton county, Alachua.) Full list is here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article221015740.html

[Ebsy]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.