European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[H. Ross Peron]

Does the urban working class in Poland prefer KO or PiS?

PiS leaning.

I was curious because it seems PO/KE wins not just in Warsaw but most other Polish cities including those in say Silesia which I'd think have more of an industrial character compared to the capital.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there a breakdown of the Polish vote by age?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Does the urban working class in Poland prefer KO or PiS?

PiS leaning.

I was curious because it seems PO/KE wins not just in Warsaw but most other Polish cities including those in say Silesia which I'd think have more of an industrial character compared to the capital.

In every Polish voivodship there is dominance of services over industry sector. Second of all, PiS is much stronger than PO in unqualified/qualified industrial worker but still they do not have support of every industrial worker. And also Silesia is specific region where there are also weird cultural connotations, Silesian identity etc. and PiS is strongly centralizing party so groups of Silesian Silesians might do not like PiS just for their nationalism and centralism. 

Is there a breakdown of the Polish vote by age?

[parochial boy]

Paris by polling station

Posting this here principally so I can go back and have a look when I'm not at work

[Walmart_shopper]

Does the urban working class in Poland prefer KO or PiS?

PiS leaning.

I was curious because it seems PO/KE wins not just in Warsaw but most other Polish cities including those in say Silesia which I'd think have more of an industrial character compared to the capital.

In every Polish voivodship there is dominance of services over industry sector. Second of all, PiS is much stronger than PO in unqualified/qualified industrial worker but still they do not have support of every industrial worker. And also Silesia is specific region where there are also weird cultural connotations, Silesian identity etc. and PiS is strongly centralizing party so groups of Silesian Silesians might do not like PiS just for their nationalism and centralism. 

Is there a breakdown of the Polish vote by age?

It would seem that the lurch to the right among younger Poles is still very much a thing. That is so fascinating to me.

[DavidB.]

Dutch Forum voor Democratie (FVD), the German Family Party and Greek Solution have just been accepted into ECR. Dutch ChristenUnie opposed FVD entering the group and left the room.

https://twitter.com/ecrgroup/status/1136267649279766529

[pilskonzept]

Dutch Forum voor Democratie (FVD), the German Family Party and Greek Solution have just been accepted into ECR. Dutch ChristenUnie opposed FVD entering the group and left the room.

Any chance that CU joins EPP?

[DavidB.]

Any chance that CU joins EPP?

It's the most likely option, I think. But I can also imagine them going NI or ultimately staying in ECR and staying mad.

[bigic]

On the other hand, Slovak Ol'ano is leaving ECR and joining the EPP.

[DavidB.]

CU and SGP are both out of ECR according to the Dutch public broadcaster. SGP MEP Bas Belder did vote for FVD's accession to the group (and even says on Twitter he heartily and vocally endorsed it), unlike CU MEP Peter van Dalen. But SGP MEP-elect Bert Jan Ruissen, who succeeds Belder, will join Van Dalen on the way out.

[bigic]

I have no doubts that CU would be accepted into the EPP group, but SGP is more fundamentalist so their chances are IMO lower?

[DavidB.]

I have no doubts that CU would be accepted into the EPP group, but SGP is more fundamentalist so their chances are IMO lower?

SGP probably don't want to be in EPP in the first place, as they are too euroskeptical for it. I don't think they'd be rejected (would be a bit ridiculous as long as Fidesz remain in...), but it'd be ideal for the SGP as they wouldn't have to be the ones breaking up with CU. I sort of expect SGP to end up in ECR anyway when all will be said and done. Ruissen is more on the left of the party than his predecessor Belder, but the fact of the matter is that the EPP just isn't a good fit for a party as euroskeptical as the SGP - ECR is a natural fit for them.

[YL]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Are they counting using a quota based on 4 because they didn't anticipate the UK still being in, and it was too hard to change it?

Order of election does not necessarily match who would be elected if they used a larger quota to begin with.

It's a 4 seater without Brexit and a 5 seater with it.  They're using a quota based on 5, and declaring that the last person elected doesn't get to take their seat yet.  It is true that the result would potentially be different if they used a quota based on 4.

Count 18 gave

Kelly (FG) elected
Kelleher (FF) elected
Wallace (I4C) 112,441
Clune (FG) 101,012
O'Sullivan (Green) 98,706
Ní Riada (SF) 98,379

In a normal 5 seat STV election that would be it: Wallace, Clune and O'Sullivan would be declared elected.  But because of this business about the last seat it isn't a normal STV election, and they will now follow what Dublin did and transfer Ní Riada's votes to see what the finishing order is.  (There's also a 17 vote Kelly surplus, but it's unlikely to be that close.)  There is some controversy around this, so expect FG to kick up a fuss if O'Sullivan overtakes Clune on Ní Riada's transfers.

Sinn Féin have asked for a recount, so it'll be some time until we actually know the final result.

It'd probably be worse for Clune if the count had been based on a 4 seat quota: Kelly wouldn't have been declared elected when he was, so would have accumulated more votes, which presumably are disproportionately the ones which went to his running mate.

There is going to be a full recount.  Apparently this could take "up to a month".

https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/

It ended up quicker than that, and has now been declared.  O'Sullivan did indeed overtake Clune, so got the immediate seat and Clune the Brexit-conditional one.

So the overall Ireland results are, for the immediate seats
FG 4 (Dublin, 2 in MNW, South)
Green 2 (Dublin, South)
Ind4Change 2 (Dublin, South)
FF 1 (South)
SF 1 (MNW)
Ind (Flanagan) 1 (MNW)

The Brexit-conditional seats make it
FG 5
Green 2
Ind4Change 2
FF 2
SF 1
Ind (Flanagan) 1

[Tender Branson]

The Strache-EU Parliament saga continues ...

The FPÖ wants to convince Strache behind the scenes not to take the seat, which he is entitled to via preference votes, because it would create even more negative headlines for the party during the summer holidays and up to the federal election.

On the other hand, Strache badly needs a job now because he’s virtually unemployed right now and the EU parliament seat would be lucrative (10.000€+ per month).

It would be quite ironic if Strache takes the seat though, after he has frequently criticized EU parliamentarians as out-of-touch and overpaid nobodies, or as „used people“ from the nation states that are „planted“ there because their time at home is up ...

Strache has another 4 weeks to decide until the new EP convenes.

If he takes it, he would be NI, not an FPÖ parliamentarian.

[DavidB.]

On the other hand, Strache badly needs a job now because he’s virtually unemployed right now and the EU parliament seat would be lucrative (10.000€+ per month).

Won't he get a ton of money for years to come?

[pilskonzept]

On the other hand, Strache badly needs a job now because he’s virtually unemployed right now and the EU parliament seat would be lucrative (10.000€+ per month).

Won't he get a ton of money for years to come?

His wife doesn't seem to think so.

[Andrea]

Manfred Weber is re-elected EPP chairman. 156 votes for Weber, 4 invalid.

EPP Vice-Chairs

Arnaud Danjean (LR; France)
Esteban Gonzalez Pons (PP, Spain)
Ewa Kopacz (Civic Platform, Poland)
Andrey Kovatchev (GERB, Bulgaria)
Esther de Lange (CDA, Netherlands)
Mairead McGuinness (FG, Ireland)
Evangelos Meimarakis (ND; Greece)
Siegfried Muresan (PNL, Romania)
Paulo Rangel (PSD; Portugal)
Dubravska Suica ((HDZ, Croatia)


____

Die Partei's Nico Semsrott has joined the Green group.

[Hash]

Leading party/list by constituency in France:



RN:



LREM et al.:



More to follow. Go to AAD if you want to read my impressions about these maps.

[Tender Branson]

On the other hand, Strache badly needs a job now because he’s virtually unemployed right now and the EU parliament seat would be lucrative (10.000€+ per month).

Won't he get a ton of money for years to come?

Once Strache quit the government and all other posts, he lost his salary of ca. 20.000€ per month for being Vice-Chancellor.

There is also no future pay for him, because Strache had the possibility to return as MP in the  Austrian parliament, which he refused as well. So, basically he could go to the AMS (Austrian Labour Market Agency) and file for unemployment money there.

If he takes the EU seat though, he would get some 10.000-20.000€ per month again, depending on how many plenary meetings he attends ...

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5632427/Strache-hat-keinen-Anspruch-auf-Gehaltsfortzahlung

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Soviel-wuerde-Strache-als-EU-Mandatar-verdienen-59066235

[DavidB.]

I have no doubts that CU would be accepted into the EPP group, but SGP is more fundamentalist so their chances are IMO lower?

SGP probably don't want to be in EPP in the first place, as they are too euroskeptical for it. I don't think they'd be rejected (would be a bit ridiculous as long as Fidesz remain in...), but it'd be ideal for the SGP as they wouldn't have to be the ones breaking up with CU. I sort of expect SGP to end up in ECR anyway when all will be said and done. Ruissen is more on the left of the party than his predecessor Belder, but the fact of the matter is that the EPP just isn't a good fit for a party as euroskeptical as the SGP - ECR is a natural fit for them.

SGP haven't officially left, it turns out, but are 'reorienting' themselves together with the CU, who did leave.

However, the CU-SGP relationship has become incredibly strained following disagreement with regard to the treatment of Forum not only here, but also in several provinces. Rumor has it that the SGP are done with the CU's seemingly never-ending leftward turn and will terminate their alliance with CU both in the European Parliament and in the province of Zuid-Holland (as well as elsewhere, possibly), upon which SGP would stay in ECR and a coalition with FVD and SGP could be formed in ZH.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Rumor has it that the SGP are done with the CU's seemingly never-ending leftward turn

I was under the impression this had been slightly reversed in the last few years?

[Lechasseur]

It's interesting to see that RN is the first party almost everywhere. Only a few big cities, Brittany, Pays de la Loire, the Basque Country/Béarn and the areas near the Swiss border voted LREM, but their margins there must have been huge in order to have almost tied RN in the national vote.

Some of those places, like the big cities (Paris, Lyon, Lille, Strasbourg, Bordeaux) and the Swiss border areas make total sense. Then the Béarn is Bayrou's historic fief so I guess those types of beliefs have appeal there that they wouldn't have as much in other comparable regions, I wonder why though.

Then for the Pays de la Loire and Brittany, what's interesting is until about 40 years ago that region was arguably the most conservative in France but now it's probably the most progressive. I know there was secularization and urbanization and stuff, but still, that happened elsewhere too but they didn't flip sides all of a sudden in the 1970s-1980s, I wonder what happened in that region in particular.

And then it's also interesting looking at Vendée (the Southernmost department in the Pays de la Loire), which was traditionally the most conservative area in France and was De Villiers' fief, but now only the Fontenay-le-Comte (the historic capital of Vendée) area voted RN, the rest voted LREM. I guess Vendée is still conservative but it is wealthier and has less immigration than other regions and thus explains its current voting patterns.

In the other direction, it was interesting to see that RN was the first party in Marseille and Nice, but they're the two most rightwing cities in France and have voting patterns relatively similar to the Southern US (although ofc in a two way match up LREM would still win), so that makes sense.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And then it's also interesting looking at Vendée (the Southernmost department in the Pays de la Loire), which was traditionally the most conservative area in France and was De Villiers' fief, but now only the Fontenay-le-Comte (the historic capital of Vendée) area voted RN, the rest voted LREM. I guess Vendée is still conservative but it is wealthier and has less immigration than other regions and thus explains its current voting patterns.

Moreover the bougie-right parts of Paris and the Petite Couronne seem to have been LREM's strongest area in the whole country. Antonio's been talking to me a lot off-forum about Macronism's seduction of much of the traditional right's support base.

It's also interesting (and depressing) to see the concatenation of the post-industrial North and the right-rightist Riviera as RN's two strongest areas.

[Andrea]

The biggest municipality not to have RN or LREM in the lead is, I think, Montreuil which was carried by the Greens (24.31%)

[Lechasseur]

And then it's also interesting looking at Vendée (the Southernmost department in the Pays de la Loire), which was traditionally the most conservative area in France and was De Villiers' fief, but now only the Fontenay-le-Comte (the historic capital of Vendée) area voted RN, the rest voted LREM. I guess Vendée is still conservative but it is wealthier and has less immigration than other regions and thus explains its current voting patterns.

Moreover the bougie-right parts of Paris and the Petite Couronne seem to have been LREM's strongest area in the whole country. Antonio's been talking to me a lot off-forum about Macronism's seduction of much of the traditional right's support base.

It's also interesting (and depressing) to see the concatenation of the post-industrial North and the right-rightist Riviera as RN's two strongest areas.

Yeah the thing is though that 10 years ago Philippe De Villiers was the Vendée council president (and I think he held that role for over 20 years, along with being one of the department's MPs/MEPs for a long time), and he endorsed Marine Le Pen at the last election so it's not exactly the same type of right you'd see in the parisian suburbs that used to dominate the Vendée. That's why it's interesting.